The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have successively released the minutes of their September monetary policy meetings. Both central banks chose to raise interest rates in September, mainly due to concerns about inflation rebounding from rising energy prices. However, after the meetings, U.S. nonfarm payroll data came in much weaker than expected, and the market quickly lowered its expectations for a Fed rate hike in October. Currently, the probability of a rate hike in October is only 17%, which is completely different from the market environment at the time of the September meeting. These minutes represent an "old meeting, new pricing" scenario, which can easily trigger market volatility. Key points to watch in the Fed minutes The minutes will reveal the real disagreements and concerns among committee members at the September meeting. 1. Focus on how many members support further rate hikes and whether there is a general belief that inflation risks remain, with service sector inflation being a core concern. 2. Although the September meeting was still hawkish, employment has clearly weakened since then, and the market will compare whether the previous judgments are out of sync with the latest economic data. 3. If the minutes' wording is clearly hawkish, it will temporarily push up U.S. Treasury yields and suppress risk assets; if they mention economic downturn and employment slowdown risks extensively, the market will interpret this as dovish, benefiting stocks and crypto assets. 4. The current market focus has shifted from "whether to raise rates" to whether there is still a possibility of a rate hike at the remaining December meeting this year. Key points to watch in the ECB minutes 1. The Eurozone is also affected by rising oil prices, showing signs of inflation rebound, but the Eurozone economy is weak, facing stagflation pressure. 2. Pay attention to divisions within the Governing Council: some members worry that energy prices are pushing up inflation and advocate continuing rate hikes; others are concerned about...