DL_W59
DL_W59
美股 加密 AI 18年交易韭菜 均不是投资建议
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Talking about #Bitcoin, it hasn't fallen below the 80 mark recently, so it can be said that it hasn't returned to the bottom consolidation range of 585-81 since the big drop in early February.
But recently, it has been fluctuating and exchanging hands in the 80-84 range, without a big panic sell-off or strong positive stimulus driving it up. However, the 80 support level has indeed been tested several times.
The main focus is still on the upcoming US-Iran geopolitical situation and the midterm elections, which directly affect oil prices and inflation, influencing interest rate changes.
We'll see if it breaks below the 80 integer mark to the 70s range for chip exchange.
But once a positive expectation is captured, Bitcoin might see a rebound.
I don't know if it will definitely break below the 80 integer mark, but a one-sided rise certainly won't happen that quickly.
For trading, either swing trading or holding for the mid-to-long term is fine; the 70s and 80s ranges both have cost-effectiveness, depending on each trader's preference.
DL_W59
The three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher, but Micron, SPCX, and Nvidia are still fluctuating near their lows.
Let's talk about the U.S. stock market and #Bitcoin. With oil prices high and inflation pressure still elevated, although a rate hike in October is unlikely, what about December? The game is still uncertain.
Against this backdrop, it remains difficult for the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin to achieve a strong one-sided upward trend.
For example, SPCX has fallen below $150. Although earnings reports are coming soon, the macro environment is unclear, and with a wave of unlocking ahead, there may still be good opportunities.
Similarly, Micron has dropped about 20 points compared to $1,100 in September. Although it is still above the lows since July, it is fluctuating around $800 to $900, a position with good cost-effectiveness.
Moreover, as long as there are no black swan events expected, the core heavyweight stocks in the U.S. market generally won't fall too deeply, whether in spot or futures (my strategy is to short as little as possible), so there are good opportunities.
Although earnings reports will come one after another, as mentioned earlier, the macro environment is still unclear and rate hike expectations remain. Even if earnings exceed expectations, there will still be some pressure limiting price boosts.
The three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher, but Micron, SPCX, and Nvidia are still fluctuating near their lows.
Let's talk about the U.S. stock market and #Bitcoin. With oil prices high and inflation pressure still elevated, although a rate hike in October is unlikely, what about December? The game is still uncertain.
Against this backdrop, it remains difficult for the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin to achieve a strong one-sided upward trend.
For example, SPCX has fallen below $150. Although earnings reports are coming soon, the macro environment is unclear, and with a wave of unlocking ahead, there may still be good opportunities.
Similarly, Micron has dropped about 20 points compared to $1,100 in September. Although it is still above the lows since July, it is fluctuating around $800 to $900, a position with good cost-effectiveness.
Moreover, as long as there are no black swan events expected, the core heavyweight stocks in the U.S. market generally won't fall too deeply, whether in spot or futures (my strategy is to short as little as possible), so there are good opportunities.
Although earnings reports will come one after another, as mentioned earlier, the macro environment is still unclear and rate hike expectations remain. Even if earnings exceed expectations, there will still be some pressure limiting price boosts.
PCE data basically met expectations and had little impact, while the market focused on current oil prices and #Bitcoin #WTI Walsh's speech on Friday
Wash's speech depends on whether inflation is hawkish or dovish, and inflation depends on oil prices.
Currently, Iran claims it has reached an agreement with Oman on the distribution of strait revenues, and there are expectations for the strait to be navigable. However, the market is waiting for the U.S.'s stance. If it's unclear, the market will be worried, just like now. So the main focus is on Trump's stance.
By evening, oil prices began to rebound and are now around 82.5. As of the time of writing, CME expects a rate hike in September to be above 40%, showing some gain. The US stock index opened lower, with #Bitcoin briefly falling below $785, which is a crucial level.
Before Friday, oil prices cannot continue to decline on the 80-82 level. Walsh's speech will certainly not be good; it will be hawkish, and rate hike expectations will further increase. Against this backdrop, neither US stocks nor Bitcoin can remain unaffected. Let alone expect a bullish reversal in Bitcoin
If oil prices continue to fall near 80, it would dispell expectations for a rate hike in September. Walsh may not be very hawkish, but the likelihood of dovish is low, so the impact on the market should be stable and weathered. Next, let's look at the August inflation data (to be released in September).
Therefore, overall, it still depends on Trump's stance, that is, the trend of oil prices.
Regardless of the situation, I personally think it's still a bit difficult for Da Bing to pull off a strong bull rally right now. The best-case scenario is a 77-81 oscillation
Once rate hike expectations rise, market sentiment will start to avoid risk again
DYOR
Can we touch the 80s? #Bitcoin
Today it surged to 786 then dropped, previously mentioned resistance at 785, currently not holding steady
Attentive friends can see on #Tradingview that trading volume dropped after entering US time last night.
Could this be a signal of weakening momentum? Not necessarily
Previously, for the price to continue rising, trading volume needed to maintain high momentum. If it weakens, the price outlook won't be good, as marked on the chart
Weekend low liquidity, market makers on holiday. So next week's weekdays are very important, especially when entering the US time zone, whether trading volume can continue to maintain high momentum
Next week is also the second week after the rally; if momentum continues, the 80s might be expected, watching if 785-82 can hold
If momentum weakens, it may go down to find support and enter a consolidation range of 725-75, to see if it can hold steady
If 725 support fails, it may continue to drop, which would really be a bear market scenario.
During this period, macro factors and oil price trends will also affect the market
Regarding the bull rebound, next week is a critical verification moment. No long or short operations yesterday, today's price is even less suitable to enter
DYOR
Scrolling through Twitter, everyone is shouting about a bull rebound, #Bitcoin is close to around 73
Personal conclusion: the bull rebound is still early, it's still a bottom-range consolidation
Since the US stock market opened, the three major indices have all been falling. Oil prices are still surging, and the interest rate hike expectations remain around 36%
As a liquidity-sensitive asset, how could Bitcoin possibly reverse and have a bull rebound under such circumstances?
Unless the macro environment improves, at least the interest rate hike expectations drop below 10%, and the US stock market turns positive
Bitcoin's price needs to quickly break through and hold above the 76-82 range to be considered a true bull rebound and reversal.
Right now, it still belongs to the bottom consolidation range of 60-82 since the big drop in February.
Be cautious of short-term holders taking profits, after all, it has risen about 15 points from 63.
Also, be wary of macro news; once interest rate hike expectations rise again, the price could fall back as it rose.
DYOR
Good news again for #USD1, WLFI's institutional layout is upgraded 🦅
1️⃣ Former head of institutional business at Coinbase joins, bringing 30 years of deep experience in asset management, capital markets, and other fields. This may help attract asset management institutions, trading platforms, and capital market clients.
2️⃣ WLFI has received conditional approval from the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to establish its own national trust bank, bringing the issuance, redemption, custody, and reserve management of USD1 entirely in-house. This will further strengthen market confidence in USD1's "full reserve, redeemable" status.
This also indicates the potential to evolve from a stablecoin used in crypto trading to a broader institutional settlement and payment tool, with institutional channels being key. The addition of professional institutional executives suggests WLFI may be shifting from project operations to more systematic financial infrastructure development.
The combination of these two initiatives may continue to drive the growth in scale and application of USD1. For ordinary USD1 holders, this also has practical significance.
In summary: the core value lies in enhancing compliance credibility, operational autonomy, and institutional expansion capabilities.
Follow multiple aspects of progress going forward. 🦅
The above content is for information distribution and is not investment advice.
The weekend #BullCome is heating up, which reminds me of the 2021 shib, a truly phenomenal MEME that basically stayed hot throughout 2021.
As long as you didn't enter after November 2021, during the first 10 months, you could profit no matter when you got on board. Its market cap peaked above $50 billion.
Actually, it’s all a product of loose liquidity. That’s the essence. Since the low interest rates and liquidity flood of 2020-21, continuing until today. Liquidity is still not loose now. The US Federal Reserve rate is still at 3.5-3.75, whereas in 2021 it was 0-0.25.
So the market game is still about rate cut/hike expectations. How will rate hikes or cuts happen? Currently, the market watches inflation, and inflation depends on oil prices.
If there hadn’t been the US-Iran geopolitical issues at the start of the year, inflation might have eased earlier, rate cut expectations would have come sooner, and risk markets would have started anticipating liquidity easing and rallied. But there are no ifs.
Now oil prices have become less sensitive to most news; the key is the navigation issue in the Strait of Hormuz.
Last night, Iran and Oman reached an agreement, but this is not about the navigation issue in the Strait of Hormuz, so the impact on oil price volatility is limited. This is an optimistic expectation, but not overly so.
Ultimately, it still depends on Trump. With the midterm elections approaching, what will Trump choose? To continue escalating military actions or impose economic sanctions, letting oil prices gradually fall and then deal with it after the midterms?
Of course, I hope oil prices come down since I still hold short positions, and there hasn’t been further escalation since August. Trump wants oil prices down for the midterms to suppress rate hike expectations. If rate hike expectations continue rising in September and October, Trump will really be in trouble.
But no matter what, in the medium to long term, there will be no easing this year, but next year it will move towards easing.
As for the short term, at least Iran has extended an olive branch, showing active progress on one hand, and wanting the US to meet conditions to allow navigation through the strait on the other.
Let’s see how Trump advances this in the short term. Personally, I think oil prices are likely to come down soon. Of course, this is just my personal view.
Rate hike expectations haven’t been dispelled and remain unchanged; at most, I’ll do some short-term trades.
For the medium to long-term trend rebound, I’m still watching.
Ultimately, it still depends on when rate cut expectations will appear.
SK Hynix #SKHY at 167, unfortunately exited at 154. #SPCX did break above 140. But exited around 143 earlier, since there's a big wave of unlocks coming next week on the 20th, so the speculation is intense. Observing $CL for now
Only the oil price #WTI short position remains. PPI data tonight was below expectations, and as of writing, the September rate hike expectations continue to be dismissed, now below about 35%. But still somewhat high.
Although some officials are still calling for rate hikes, it's mostly expectation management and ongoing speculation, especially since this month's inflation data won't come out until September, so this month's oil price is crucial.
Currently, the US and Iran are only showing toughness on the diplomatic front, with no military escalation.
Also, oil prices briefly fell below $80 tonight, but market patience is slowly wearing thin. The situation needs to be resolved quickly, either geopolitically or by reopening the Strait of Hormuz for navigation. This would be positive for inflation easing and pushing rate hike expectations below 20%.
Otherwise, this rate hike speculation will keep worrying the market and suppress risk assets. US stocks might perform better due to earnings reports and product-driven hype, with better liquidity, but Bitcoin is stuck in a boring market.
So personally, I'm watching US stock spot first before looking for opportunities.
DYOR
DL_W59
The announcement was made, all as expected, with mild inflation. This further dispels expectations of a rate hike in September.
However, CME shows about a 38% chance of a rate hike in September. Although it's below 50%, it still makes the market uneasy, especially since oil prices remain above 80 (actually, event information is still needed to further reduce this rate hike probability).
Personally, I think a rate hike in September is still unlikely.
US stock market opened with the S&P index rebounding, #SKHY also rose above 150, and I'm still waiting to see if #SPCX can break above 140. If it does, I'll prepare to exit. After all, there is another unlocking next week.
Although this data is good, the market is still worried about geopolitics and oil prices.
I'm going to watch the official news live broadcast and the official commentators' interpretations. Recently, geopolitical escalation is unlikely, and the US may return to economic sanctions. Trump might also be frustrated because he can't strike and wants a quick victory, but Iran is stubborn. The market's patience is running thin, and oil prices have not continued to fall.
But with the midterm elections approaching and inflation conditions, Trump definitely doesn't want to see increased rate hike expectations before the midterms (November).
So the goal is to reduce inflation, which means de-escalating geopolitics, easing tensions, making peace talks, and lowering oil prices.
Trump really doesn't have much time left. At least both sides hope to negotiate because there are no further military actions.
This is also why, although recently there have been many short-term users causing unfriendly fees (recently around 0.03, previously always 0), I still hold short positions. If given another chance, I will really close them. I've held for over a month and experienced several rollercoaster rides.
DYOR
The announcement was made, all as expected, with mild inflation. This further dispels expectations of a rate hike in September.
However, CME shows about a 38% chance of a rate hike in September. Although it's below 50%, it still makes the market uneasy, especially since oil prices remain above 80 (actually, event information is still needed to further reduce this rate hike probability).
Personally, I think a rate hike in September is still unlikely.
US stock market opened with the S&P index rebounding, #SKHY also rose above 150, and I'm still waiting to see if #SPCX can break above 140. If it does, I'll prepare to exit. After all, there is another unlocking next week.
Although this data is good, the market is still worried about geopolitics and oil prices.
I'm going to watch the official news live broadcast and the official commentators' interpretations. Recently, geopolitical escalation is unlikely, and the US may return to economic sanctions. Trump might also be frustrated because he can't strike and wants a quick victory, but Iran is stubborn. The market's patience is running thin, and oil prices have not continued to fall.
But with the midterm elections approaching and inflation conditions, Trump definitely doesn't want to see increased rate hike expectations before the midterms (November).
So the goal is to reduce inflation, which means de-escalating geopolitics, easing tensions, making peace talks, and lowering oil prices.
Trump really doesn't have much time left. At least both sides hope to negotiate because there are no further military actions.
This is also why, although recently there have been many short-term users causing unfriendly fees (recently around 0.03, previously always 0), I still hold short positions. If given another chance, I will really close them. I've held for over a month and experienced several rollercoaster rides.
DYOR
DL_W59
说说最近的持仓 操作 #WTI #SPCX $CL $SPCX
按照逻辑路径：油价 ---通胀---利率预期--影响风险市场
来吧
先说美伊地缘 影响油价，虽然已接近84美金 但新闻 “美伊已接近达成某种安排” 说明还是在条件互换，只要不继续升级，对于油价就不会刺激上涨
但市场的耐心也有限，看接下来几天能不能有具体安排出来吧
个人觉得不太会持续上涨应该不会很高的。所以依然拿着油价空单，就是用户交易激进，导致费率不太友好，挺让人心疼的。
这波要是能继续下跌，75左右就要择机彻底平了。
再就是今晚CPI数据，目前预期值还是不错的，要是能继续通胀减弱，对于后面加息预期肯定是继续打消，然后可能提升Q4的降息预期
这是利于美股和大饼的。所以我的 #SPCX 也还在拿着，在等今晚，看能不能借住cpi好数据，有无机会突破140，那就准备彻底走了。
市场都在等今晚选方向讷。截止发文目前9月加息预期约 50%
当然，要是cpi大爆冷，甚至地缘又升级，油价回升
那就另外一个故事啦
希望往好的预期方向走吧。
DYOR