jiaheshuo.okb
jiaheshuo.okb
币圈老司机 擅长追涨杀跌 BTC｜ETH｜OKB holder 星球活跃用户 分享一些分析见解 不作为投资建议
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$BTC long position floating loss shrinks to 13.9%, finally surfacing a bit from the deep water.
Opening average price $86,460, position unchanged. BTC currently at $85,308, nearly $480 higher than last time, loss continues to narrow but still some way from break-even.
According to current market conditions, 1-hour EMA20 is about $85,033, RSI about 66. The last three hourly candles all closed above $85,000, price continuously testing $85,300. If it closes above $85,430, next target is $85,700-$86,000.
Perpetual positions increased by about 0.5% compared to 23 hours ago, price and positions rising together, rebound involves new positions. Funding rate is positive, but longs are not crowded; if positions continue to increase while price stalls, watch for new longs to exit first.
Among OKX smart money, 20 are long and 13 are short, number skewed towards longs, but shorts account for 60.7% of the amount. Total positions increased by only about $60,000 compared to 24 hours ago, smart money has not significantly added. If price recovers above their average long cost of $85,688, short positions may face further pressure.
This week, US spot BTC ETF net inflow is $82.9 million, long-term holders’ MVRV remains above 1, spot fundamentals are solid.
I’m first watching if $85,430 can hold. If it holds, continue to wait for $86,000; if it falls below $85,000, recovery will slow, and if it breaks $84,700, beware of this momentum leaking away again.
-13.42%
Snapshot at Oct 04, 2026, 23:14
$BTC only rose less than 1%, while $STRK surged 24%, with funds picking high-elasticity targets.
According to OKX market data, $BTC is at $85,262, $ZEC at $1,334.8, and $STRK at $0.0545. The overall market is mildly recovering, with STRK clearly leading the gains.
BTC has risen above the 1-hour EMA20, open interest increased by 0.7%, and funding rates turned negative. If $85,400 is reclaimed within an hour, it may trigger short covering; if not, watch $84,950 first.
ZEC open interest increased by 10.2%, but price only rose 1.49%, with both bulls and bears squeezing in. If $1,346 is held, $1,380 could be targeted; falling below $1,317 may trigger long position reductions.
STRK open interest surged 58.2%, with a high of $0.0567 before pulling back. Addresses that bought early have unrealized gains; the rally may face profit-taking; as long as $0.0525 holds, the strength remains.
Related data shows 836 coins rising and 339 falling, GameFi up 4.80%, indicating risk appetite is spreading.
Priority is to watch STRK's pullback support at $0.0525-$0.0530, avoid chasing above $0.0560; wait for $1,346 confirmation on ZEC, and BTC to hold $84,950.
-14.15%
Snapshot at Oct 04, 2026, 19:46
My $BTC 10x long position is floating at a loss of 19.12%, and the price is stuck again at the $85,000 threshold.
The average entry price is $86,460, and the position hasn't changed. BTC is currently quoted at $84,830, similar to last time, with no significant change in loss. This sideways consolidation is still testing patience.
According to the current market conditions, the 1-hour EMA20 is about $84,779, and the RSI is around 49. The price barely returned above the moving average, but the highest complete hourly candle recently only reached $84,864, still some distance from the intraday high of $85,028. If it can close above $85,030, I will then look at $85,650-$86,000.
Perpetual positions have decreased by about 0.8% compared to roughly 23 hours ago. The price has slightly risen, but positions continue to decline, so the rebound mainly relies on old positions exiting. The funding rate is slightly positive, with longs paying a low fee; if price and positions both increase later, the rebound will be considered supported by continued buying.
Among OKX smart money, 20 people are long and 13 are short, with more people on the long side, but shorts hold 62.0% of the amount. Total positions have decreased by about $3.61 million compared to 24 hours ago. More people but less money on one side means this long advantage is only a sentiment factor for now.
This week, the US spot BTC ETF net inflow is $82.9 million, indicating spot still has support; selling pressure from high-level buyers hasn't disappeared, so the upside won't be easy.
I’m watching $85,030 and $85,650 first. If the 1-hour drops back below $84,500, the recovery will have to start over; if it breaks $83,900 again, this chicken leg meal will still have to be owed.
-19.30%
Snapshot at Oct 04, 2026, 13:16
My $BTC 10x long position's floating loss has narrowed to 19%.
The average entry price is $86,460, and the position hasn't changed. BTC is currently at $84,836, with the loss shrinking from 22% to 19%, but it's still far from the entry price.
According to the current market conditions, the 1-hour EMA20 is around $84,750, and the RSI is about 50. The price has returned above the moving average, and the recent hourly candles have pushed from $84,500 to $84,800, though it was blocked once near $84,950. First, it needs to close above that, then we look at $85,700.
Perpetual positions have decreased by about 3.1% compared to roughly 23 hours ago. This rebound mainly happened during position reductions, more like short covering. For the rebound to go further, I need to see price and positions increase together; the funding rate is close to zero, and the longs haven't crowded yet.
Among OKX smart money, 21 are long and 11 are short, with longs accounting for 52.0% of the amount, indicating a bullish bias, but total positions have decreased by about $24.72 million in the past 24 hours. They don't say it out loud, but their actions are honest: bullish in words, but shrinking their bets.
High-level buyers are still selling, and long-term US Treasury yields are also weighing on risk assets, so the external environment isn't easy. If BTC can reclaim the average long cost of smart money at $85,704, then my position can truly breathe.
I'm watching $84,950 and $85,700 first. If the 1-hour breaks below $84,400 again, the rebound is basically in vain; if it breaks $83,900, the chicken leg meal will have to be postponed further.
-18.97%
Snapshot at Oct 03, 2026, 23:50
My $BTC 10x long position is still open, currently at an unrealized loss of 22%, logging the chicken leg meal loss first.
The entry average price was $86,460, and now BTC is around $84,600. The loss has widened, and the price hasn't yet returned above the 1-hour moving average. I'll first see if this sideways consolidation can repair the position.
The 1-hour EMA20 is near $84,873, RSI about 43. The price is still below the moving average, and the recent candles have been grinding sideways between $84,400 and $84,600. Only if it recovers above $84,900 will there be a chance to test $85,700; otherwise, it's just catching a breath.
Perpetual contract open interest has decreased by about 5.0% compared to roughly 23 hours ago. Both price and open interest have dropped, indicating some longs have exited. If the price rebounds and open interest increases again, that would mean new money is coming in; if only the price bounces but open interest stays flat, I'll treat it as short covering.
Among OKX smart money, 20 are long and 13 are short, with longs accounting for 52.0% of the amount, but total open interest has decreased by about $9.5 million. They are slightly bullish but are pulling back their positions. If the price can reclaim their average long cost of $85,644, this position can truly recover.
Yesterday, BTC ETF net inflow was about $120 million, mid-term buying is still there, but institutions won't specifically come to rescue my entry price.
I continue to watch $84,900 and $85,700. If the 1-hour close falls below $84,000, the next stop might be $83,200; if that breaks too, I can't force the chicken leg meal into a full banquet.
-21.70%
Snapshot at Oct 03, 2026, 11:35
$BTC 10x long position continues to be held, still testing the breakout strength above $86,000.
This $BTC long position was opened at an average price of $86,460, and the price is currently fluctuating near the entry point. The position size has not been adjusted for now; next, we will only watch if the breakout can be confirmed by a one-hour close.
According to the current market conditions, BTC is around $86,475, with the last three complete one-hour candlesticks closing near or above $86,000. The one-hour EMA20 is about $85,565, RSI around 70, indicating short-term strength, but there is still resistance near $86,900.
Perpetual positions have increased by about 7.9% compared to approximately 23 hours ago, with prices rising simultaneously; new positions are participating in the market. The funding rate is positive, with longs paying fees, but there is no obvious overheating at present.
Among OKX smart money, 14 are long and 23 are short, with shorts accounting for 54.7% of the amount. Total positions increased by about $7.76 million in the past 24 hours. Shorts continue to increase their investment while the price remains high; if it pushes higher, these shorts may be forced to stop loss.
This round of rise is supported by spot funds, with stronger absorption than pure leverage-driven rallies. However, the non-farm payroll and unemployment rate will be released at 20:30, and prices may quickly sweep losses up and down around the data release.
For this position, first watch if the one-hour close can be above $86,650; after confirmation, look at $87,400-$88,000. If the close falls below $85,800, the current rebound logic weakens; if it falls below $85,400, the long position should not be stubbornly held further.
-1.04%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 20:14
$BTC surged past $86,000 with high volume; shorting now risks further short squeezes.
According to the current market, $BTC is at $86,326, up 2.42% in 24 hours. The most recent full one-hour candle closed at $86,623, with a high of $86,888; the one-hour RSI is about 73, indicating short-term overbought conditions, but the price has not yet closed weaker.
Perpetual positions increased by about 8.4% compared to 23 hours ago, with price and positions rising together, indicating new positions are joining the upward move. In the past hour, approximately $119 million worth of short positions across the market were liquidated; continuing to open shorts against the trend risks triggering more short stop losses if the price pushes higher again.
Currently, only 7 smart money holders on OKX have positions, with shorts accounting for 89.3% of the amount, but total positions have decreased by about $23.1 million compared to 24 hours ago. Although shorts dominate, the significant withdrawal of capital means this ratio should not be taken as an immediate short signal.
Spot BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of about $103 million yesterday, and sell orders near $85,000 continue to be absorbed by buying, so upward momentum remains at this stage.
My judgment is not to chase shorts now; wait for price confirmation of weakness. If the one-hour close falls below $85,400 and rebounds fail to recover, a light short position can be tried near $85,300 with a stop loss at $86,100 and a target of $83,700, yielding a risk-reward ratio of about 2R.
If the price closes above $86,900, the short plan fails. The non-farm payroll and unemployment rate data will be released tonight at 20:30; do not rush to take a direction before the data.
$BTC rises accompanied by increased positions, $ZEC new positions still under downward pressure.
According to the current market situation, $BTC is at $84,802, up 1.58% in 24 hours; $HYPE is at $87.85, down 2.83%; $ZEC is at $1,341, down 5.94%.
BTC perpetual positions increased by 4.3%, with price rising simultaneously. ZEC positions increased by 5.1% but the price continues to fall, new positions have not stopped the selling pressure; HYPE price and positions both dropped 4.8%, traders are exiting.
In OKX smart money, BTC short positions account for 84.5%, but the sample size dropped to 14 people, with positions reduced by about $1.01 million. ZEC has 4 longs and 4 shorts, positions reduced by about $780,000; HYPE only 3 people, long positions account for 92.8%, signal is weak.
HYPE buyback and burn supports long-term supply, but the price remains weaker than BTC. A large ZEC long was previously close to liquidation zone, it is not advisable to catch the falling during violent fluctuations.
The main opportunity is seen in BTC. If the one-hour close is above $85,250 and the pullback does not break below, a light long position can be taken, stop loss at $84,600, target $86,550.
If BTC closes below $84,400, a rebound short can be tried, stop loss at $85,050, target $83,100. Watch HYPE at $86.40, ZEC at $1,330; if broken and cannot recover, consider shorting again. Non-farm payroll and unemployment rate will be announced tonight at 20:30, reduce leverage before the data.
Continue holding the $ETH long position.
The average entry price for this $ETH long position is $2,690, with no position adjustments for now. The key question is whether the price can reclaim the short-term resistance zone.
According to the current market conditions, ETH is around $2,687. The most recent complete one-hour candle closed at $2,696, but the new hour briefly dropped to $2,680, indicating selling pressure near $2,700. The immediate resistance to watch is $2,705, with further resistance at $2,721.
Current perpetual contract open interest is about $1.535 billion, with a positive funding rate, meaning longs are still paying shorts. If open interest increases during price dips, new longs may face stop losses; if price rebounds and open interest remains stable, the rebound will be healthier.
On OKX, among smart money, 22 are long and 14 are short, with longs accounting for 83.9% of the amount. Total open interest increased by about $4.48 million in the past 24 hours. The average long cost for smart money is about $2,683, still below my entry price, indicating they have more room for drawdown and their positions should not be copied directly.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI actual value is 54.5, slightly below the expected 55. After the release, ETH surged to around $2,705 but then retreated; the data did not lead to a sustained breakout.
Continue to monitor this position: if the one-hour close is above $2,705, watch for $2,721; if the close falls below $2,680, the rebound logic weakens. Updates will follow based on position changes.
-0.47%
Snapshot at Oct 01, 2026, 23:00
$BTC has returned above $84,000, but positions and smart money inflows continue to decline.
According to the current market conditions, $BTC is quoted at $84,163, up 1.32% in 24 hours, with the 1-hour EMA20 at $83,809 and RSI around 56. The price has moved back above the moving average but remains below the previous high of $85,650.
Perpetual positions are about $2.361 billion, down 0.4% from approximately 23 hours ago, with a funding rate of 0.0035%. The price rise accompanied by a decrease in positions indicates a rebound with leverage exiting; new funds are not continuously chasing the price.
Among OKX smart money, 18 are long and 9 are short, with long positions accounting for 91.7% of the amount. However, total positions have decreased by about $3.22 million compared to 24 hours ago, and the proportion of long traders has dropped by about 13.7 percentage points. Traders remain bullish, but their investment is contracting.
Morgan Stanley-related funds have increased holdings to 10,436 BTC, providing medium-term demand; on-chain statistics show Bitcoin's apparent demand is still negative 112,500 BTC, indicating insufficient short-term spot absorption. The previous surge to $85,650 accompanied by short liquidations cannot be regarded as confirmation of new buying.
If the 1-hour close is above $84,350 and the price retests without breaking down, a light long position can be taken with a stop loss at $83,750 and a target of $85,550.
If the close is below $83,650 and the rebound fails to recover, a short position can be tried with a stop loss at $84,250 and a target of $82,450. The ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released at 22:00; reduce leverage before the data.