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灯塔说
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灯塔说
Synchronizing a few points of thought:
The recent drop a couple of days ago was said to be influenced by several macro factors, but these macro factors have been deteriorating for a long time, especially the continuous new highs in US long-term bonds, while crypto and US stock indices kept hitting new highs during this period.
This indicates that market pressure is not only from interest rates but also includes earnings expectations, position risks, and deleveraging.
The meeting minutes from the day before yesterday also clearly stated there will be another rate hike this year. Yesterday oil prices rebounded somewhat, possibly because the Middle East risk behind it has not stabilized, indicating that with high oil prices, the market is unlikely to tighten in the short term.
Yesterday's drop has already washed out some of the market's leveraged long positions, and short-term selling is also exhausted, but this is not yet a bottoming signal. The 4-hour chart broke multiple support levels forming a bearish structure; let's see how the bottoming situation develops over the next few days. Short-term resistance is near 83000, with support at 80000 below.
Crude oil is currently in a phase of contention. After short positions around 96 and closing around 88, it has been fluctuating in waves. Next, will it escalate or negotiate? But Iran doesn't have much time left; Trump will definitely take action around the midterm elections in November. Follow the market direction; if by the end of the month there is still no negotiation news and prices remain below 90, then expect a rebound attempt.
Gold emphasized yesterday that the previously confirmed support at 4080-4060 was reached, triggering a rebound as expected today. If macro conditions stabilize afterward, gold's rebound will last at least until around 4300-4500. Maintain low long positions, and on short-term dips around 4150, continue to go long.
$BTC $CL $XAU
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