The whole world is hitting new highs, but the crypto circle is getting beaten up.
Looking around the periphery: US stocks continued to play on Tuesday, with the S&P 7,819 closing above 7,800 for the first time, and the Nasdaq hitting 27,600, both at new highs. The AI rally hasn't stopped, with Broadcom up over 3%; however, storage stocks were hammered hard, Seagate down 9%, SK Hynix down 6%. The US dollar fell below 102, offshore RMB broke 6.70 intraday, and the Middle East hinted that it's time to wrap up, with oil prices dropping over 2%. The G7 is still releasing reserves to suppress prices, and US Treasury yields just eased from their highest levels since 2002 for a breather. Hong Kong stocks hesitated today, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.62% at 24,130, led lower by Alibaba and tech stocks. The A-shares are still on holiday until tomorrow (10/8), with the A50 futures down 1.12% during the break, so no guarantee of a strong open. Tonight's FOMC minutes will reveal the truth; the probability of a rate hike in October has dropped to just over 20%, but the market still expects another hike before year-end.
After looking around, there's only one question: global risk assets are all rising, but the crypto circle is getting beaten up. This is not global risk aversion; it's the crypto circle moving its own house. The capital accounts are the most honest: $BTC's open interest net increased by 99.38 million today (after just withdrawing 346 million yesterday, the shorts are killing it again today), and $ETH also added 64 million. Spot institutional money hasn't stopped; IBIT alone absorbed 2.65 billion USD in September, so it's not that no one wants crypto, it's the contract market stepping on itself.
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