PUMP at $0.0063, do you dare to bet?
They’ve burned $460 million in buybacks, destroyed 17% of the supply, yet the price is stuck at the lower edge of the $0.0063 range—so is this a grave your fees are digging for you by the dog whales, or the last chance for retail investors to get in?
First, the surface view: from 0.00115 to 0.0068, more than tripled in three months. Up 26% in the last 7 days, 58% in the last 30 days. Then what? Yesterday 0.0064, today 0.0063, stuck in limbo.
Are you cursing inside: “Pump it up, useless!”
Don’t rush. I’ll tell you, this position is a hundred times smarter than chasing highs, but ten thousand times riskier than being out of the market.
First thing: The buyback is real, but it’s not a floor.
Pump.fun uses 50% of its net income daily to buy PUMP on the market, then permanently burns it, with the contract locked for one year. By the end of September, it had burned $466 million, destroying 168.6 billion tokens, accounting for 17% of total supply.
Sounds fierce? Let me translate:
It’s like throwing money into a fire—the fire burns bright, but the price doesn’t necessarily rise.
In the first half of this year, the same mechanism spent $350 million on buybacks, yet the price still fell back near the issue price. Why? Because buybacks are just speed bumps, not a floor. A daily $1 million buy order can’t offset internal unlocks and market maker sell pressure.
Don’t forget: about one-third of the supply is locked with internal related parties. Circulating supply is already 464 billion tokens, and unlocked tokens far exceed daily buybacks.
You think it’s deflation, but it’s actually chronic bleeding.
Second thing: The 20% big bullish candle in September has nothing to do with you.
From September 28-29, PUMP surged 20% in two days, from 0.0041 to 0.0060. The whole network shouted “bullish return speed.”
But do you know how that candle came about? Increased token issuance + derivatives short squeeze + ambiguous guidance from SEC staff. Not a surge in fees, not explosive income, but sentiment and leverage.
Any new announcements today? No. Any news of fee surges? No. The market is just digesting that late-September wave.
Translation:
That pump was for show, not for profit. Chasing now means taking the bag for those who entered on September 28.
Third thing: Technically stuck on the lifeline, 0.0062 is life or death.
Current path: June low 0.00115 → September 26 0.0041 → September 29 0.0060 → October 4 high 0.00681 → now 0.0063.
Resistance above: 0.0065-0.0067 (supply zone), 0.0068 (this round’s high). No volume breakout above 0.0068, forget about 0.008.
Support below: 0.0062 (today’s low, short-term lifeline), 0.0058-0.0060 (platform), 0.0051-0.0054, 0.0047.
4-hour chart shows rotation between 0.0062-0.0068 range, volume much smaller than late September.
In short: If 0.0062 breaks, expect a deep short-term pullback; daily close below 0.0058 points directly to 0.0051.
Bull vs. Bear, judge for yourself:
On the bullish side:
Buyback mechanism intact, still burning $1 million daily
7-day +26%, 30-day +58%, trend unbroken
Pump.fun remains Solana’s largest meme launcher, income pro-cyclical
Market cap $2.9 billion, top ranking, good liquidity
On the bearish side:
One-third locked internally, unlock sell pressure heavier than buybacks
BTC around 86,000 midpoint, ETF outflows $90 million, market sideways
0.0068 rejected three times, strong resistance at upper range
Spent $350 million on buybacks in H1, price still fell back to origin
Critical level 0.0063, only 0.0001 above lifeline 0.0062.
Breakout confirmation: volume breakout and hold above 0.00685, pullback not below 0.0066 → targets 0.0072, 0.0078
Breakdown confirmation: volume drop below 0.0062 → next supports 0.0058, 0.0051
Trading strategy (no nonsense):
Short-term players:
Light long positions near 0.0063, stop loss 0.00615. First target 0.0066, second 0.0068. Reduce half at 0.0065. Don’t heavy load, this is gambling at the lower edge of the range.
Conservative players:
Wait for 0.0058-0.0060 zone, stop loss 0.00545. Better entry at 0.0051-0.0054. If not reached, take small positions, don’t rush.
Breakout traders:
Only consider chasing if volume breakout holds above 0.00685 and pullback stays above 0.0066. Targets 0.0072, 0.0078. Fake breakouts abandon immediately.
Bears:
Light short on weak rallies at 0.0066-0.0068, stop loss 0.00695, targets 0.0062, 0.0058. Avoid shorting near 0.0062 to prevent being squeezed.
Position rule: single trade risk no more than 1.5% of total capital, leverage no more than 3x.
Risk control priorities (memorize):
Break below 0.0062 with volume → next supports 0.0058, 0.0051, reduce positions first.
BTC breaks below 84,500 → cut PUMP leverage first.
Daily income drops to near halt of buybacks → 0.0063 likely to fail.
PUMP now is like MEME coin in 2024—
Fast in, fast out, only fees are real.
You think you’re betting on buybacks, but you’re actually betting on the next wave of new retail.
You think 0.0063 is the bottom, but it’s just the lower edge of the range.
Buybacks can only support the floor, not create a bull run. Real pumps come from new money, not old code.
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