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The whole network is shouting bull return. But I glanced at the greed index and felt a chill down my spine. 78, extreme greed. What was it yesterday? 70. It jumped 8 points in one day. This number is scarier than 78 itself. The number 78 is not rare in history. In May 2024, the fear and greed index reached 76. In November 2024, it reached 78. In July 2025, it reached 79. What’s so special about 78? It has appeared several times historically. What’s truly worth warning about is the speed of jumping from 70 to 78 in a single day. What does that mean? Market sentiment went from "quite optimistic" to "extreme greed" in just 24 hours. Sentiment has inertia. The faster it rises, the harder it falls. How is the index calculated? The answer will make many uncomfortable. The fear and greed index composition: volatility accounts for 25%, trading volume 25%, social media heat 15%, surveys 15%, Bitcoin 10%, Google Trends 10%. Volatility and trading volume together make up 50%. This round of index surge is actually limited in social media FOMO contribution. What really drives it is amplified volatility and a surge in trading volume. In plain language: it’s not retail investors being greedy, it’s leverage being greedy. While retail investors are still hesitating whether to get on board, leveraged funds have already pushed the price above $86,000. Shorts were crushed for $650 million, and then? In the past 24 hours, over $648 million in short positions were forcibly liquidated, involving 137,386 traders. Bitcoin rallied from a low of $80,591 to around $86,350, an increase of over 6%. The chain is clear: Technical breakout (breaking above the 50-week moving average) → shorts forced to liquidate → forced buybacks push price higher → more liquidations. A positive feedback loop, sounds great. But the other side of positive feedback is negative feedback. Once short buybacks end, the "fuel" driving the price up is burned out. Bulls take profits, and the price retreats. Look at the order book: the buy/sell depth ratio of the top 5 levels is only 0.43, with sellers clearly dominant. There is a large sell wall near $85,710. Buy orders are thin as paper, sell orders thick as a wall. History tells you how fast sentiment can switch. In July 2025, the greed index hit 79. By November that year, the index dropped to 23. From extreme greed to extreme fear in four months. The crypto market’s sentiment cycle is ten times faster than traditional finance. While you’re still cheering for breaking $87,000, the turning point may have already begun. What would I do? I wouldn’t chase longs at the moment of a greed index jump. Not bearish, just uncomfortable with the position. Bitcoin has already stood above the 50-week moving average (around $78,700), technically confirming a mid-term trend reversal signal. But this also means the short-term gains have priced in a lot of good news in advance. My action: Set take-profit orders well. Wait for a secondary confirmation after sentiment retraces. If the price pulls back to the 50-week moving average area ($78,000–$80,000) and finds support, that’s a better entry point. If it directly surges to $90,000, no regrets either; the market always offers opportunities. Greed is your opponent, not your friend. On Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $85,000 before December 31, 2026, is 68%. The price is already above $86,000 now. The market believes there is limited room for a big rally from the current position. Smart money never chases highs. They wait for others to be fearful. $BTC $ETH $DOGE #加密总市值重返2.8万亿美元