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Tonight, the USD/JPY fell below 157, and the three major US stock indices opened higher. The comment section is once again shouting "risk-on is back, $BTC is about to take off." For those who play cards, they are most wary of such a one-day tailwind.
My bearish foundation these past two days has never been a certain candlestick, but the interest rate environment: the 10-year US Treasury yield is still above 5%, and money is flowing into the "risk-free 5%". A one-day dollar pullback and stock market rally cannot change this underlying level.
What really needs attention is not whether it rose today, but when interest rates will truly turn around. Until then, I only regard the rebound as a rebound. What do you think, is this a reversal or just a breather? At 4:00 PM today (UTC 08:00), $15.9 billion worth of Bitcoin options on Deribit have been officially settled (Sections 96, 99, and 101 have analyzed the structure before expiration in detail). The real question now is: After options expire, how does BTC usually move? First, historical data provides clear statistical patterns. The official knowledge base's entry on "Impact of Bitcoin Options Settlement Date on Price" provides key data: after settlement ends, hedging pressure is lifted, the market experiences "Gamma release," prices return to their original trend or driven by fundamentals, and short-term disturbances are usually digested within 3-5 trading days. More importantly, there is a directional pattern: when call options are dominant, the probability of rising after delivery is about 63%; when put options dominate, the probability of decline is about 58%; In a bull market, large settlements often continue to rise, and during periods of oscillation or pullback, short-term declines are likely to occur but are hard to change the medium- to long-term trend. The structure of this expiration is: call/put ratio 0.69 (bulls dominant), 55% of call options are at actual value, and the maximum pain point of 75,000 is much lower than the current price of 84,000+—historically, the probability of a post-settlement rise is about 63%. But here's an important premise: "in a bull market." What stage is BTC currently at? It rebounded from the June low of 58,525 to 87,381 (+49%), just broke above the 50-week moving average (confirmed by Galaxy Research), and Tom Lee declared "the bull market has arrived" (Section 99)—if the market accepts the "bull market" characterization, then 63%If only every trade could be profitable… Three trades. Three completely different outcomes: One took profit. One is being held stubbornly. And one is still sitting deep in the abyss. $ETH short: I admit defeat. Entered at 2696, closed at 2676, locking in +67% / +18U. After three consecutive short trades, this time I finally chose to take the profit. With 100x full position, the profit isn’t huge—barely enough for a hotpot meal. 😂 But profit that’s actually in your pocket is still profit. Then I already rehearsed with this 1099-DA thing last year in advance.
At the time, I was quite optimistic: the exchange reports income, I just fill in the cost basis on my side, and the profit and loss would automatically come out, saving a lot of trouble.
But the result was, the form only showed the sale amount, and the cost column was left blank.
I spent the whole night going through hundreds of transaction records—gas fees, cross-chain, airdrops, swaps—I had to reconcile everything myself, one by one.
The IRS said brokers won’t report cost basis until 2026, which means for the next two tax seasons, retail investors still have to act as their own market makers and do their own bookkeeping.
The lesson is: don’t expect the platform to calculate everything clearly for you; in the end, you have to handle all the on-chain stuff yourself.
Let’s see if next year’s form really adds a cost column.
#美股探索代币化与全天候交易 $HYPE Last summer, my cousin pulled me into a group chat.
Every day, someone was posting profit screenshots.
I kept watching and got itchy hands.
Secretly bought some $BTC.
After buying, it started to drop.
During that time, I even quit milk tea.
Lying in bed at night, I kept wanting to check my phone.
Later, after almost two months of endurance,
I finally broke even.
Quickly sold it off,
made enough for a spicy hot pot meal.
I became clear-headed.
Now I only use spare money to buy $ETH.
If it drops, I don’t add more.
If it rises, I don’t chase.
The calls in the group,
I treat them like comedy.
If they were really that accurate,
I’d have quietly made a fortune myself.
I also tried $SOL,
it’s really fast,
my heart couldn’t keep up.
Held it for two days and sold.
Sleep well at night.
This stuff,
playing with spare money is fine.
Borrowing money to rush in is a trap.
Don’t always think about getting rich overnight.
First, think about what to do if you lose it all.
I rarely check the market now.
Work when I should work,
sleep when I should sleep.
Profits are luck,
losses are tuition fees.
Living steadily is better than anything else.#财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
#Muse加速扩张，MetaAI投入或迎来变现 One important distinction: the $API3 50M figure appears to be rounded/estimated. Using the entry prices × quantities you provided gives roughly $312.6M of entry notional, before considering current mark price, margin, fees, or funding.
What I would watch
ETH: $2Z ,337 short → liquidation around $4,000. That's roughly +71% from entry.
BTC: $74,443 short → liquidation around $146,000. That's roughly +96% from entry.#FedHikesBTCResilience #CostcoBeatsMicronNext #USTreasuryYieldsRise Early this morning, an event even more significant than BTC option expiration was unfolding in the bond market—but it was barely noticed by the crypto community. First, the yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury hit 5.446%, the highest level since June 2004. Today's headlines reprinted the global market report confirming this data: the 20-year yield rose to 5.560% (+0.71%), the 10-year to 5.195% (+0.62%), and the 5-year to 5.066% (+0.78%). The entire U.S. Treasury yield curve is simultaneously rising to levels not seen in 20 years. What is even more concerning is that Philadelphia Fed President Paulson publicly stated today (September 25) that "if the economy moves as expected, the Fed may need to raise rates further to push inflation back to the 2% target." "This is the second FOMC member to clearly signal a rate hike within a week, following Williams (Section 93). Paulson, a voting FOMC member for 2026, supports last week's 25 basis point rate hike and believes "the risk balance has shifted against the backdrop of persistently high inflation and limited progress in the decline." CME FedWatch now shows a nearly 75% probability of a rate hike in October. Second, Japan's government bond market is simultaneously "collapsing." 21 Economic Net reported today: Japan's 10-year government bond yield once rose to 3.115%, hitting a 30-year and one-month high since August 1996. Japan's Kyodo News pointed out that this was due to rising yields on long-term U.S. government bonds, which has led to market concerns去年牛市的时候，我做 SOL 就亏了5万多。老婆受不了每天无休止的争吵，最后我们离婚了。 今天再看看自己的持仓： IP：亏损 8,000 CORE：亏损 8,000 CFX：亏损 10,000 SOL：又亏了 58,500 每天熬夜盯盘，脑子里想的只有两个字：回本。 可没想到，亏损的窟窿却越补越大。 我曾经以为自己是在交易，实际上却是在拿人生赌博。 因为不甘心接受已经发生的亏损，被沉没成本困住，最后把自己的生活也搞得一团糟。 兄弟们，千万不要走我的老路！ 高杠杆和死扛亏损仓位，只会让你一步步陷入深渊。 现在，我只想找一份稳定的夜班工作，踏踏实实地赚钱，慢慢把欠下的债还清。 钱没了可以慢慢挣，生活也可以重新开始。 活着，比什么都重要。 $BTC $SOL #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布9.25 $BTC Data Overview
Long and short positions both suffer! Before the $15.6 billion options expiration, the 84,000 defense line repeatedly changed hands.
Current price around 84,600-85,200 USDT, 24h increase about +0.3%~+2.0%, intraday dipped to 82,945 before a V-shaped rebound, with a high point reaching 85,239. 24h total network liquidations about $335 million, bulls account for 63% ($213 million), shorts liquidated $122 million, both sides suffered large-scale liquidations, with 82,597 people liquidated.
Macro pressure continues to intensify. The 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 5.207%, the 30-year touched 5.47%, both hitting multi-year highs, with the October rate hike probability rising to 67.5%-75%. Multiple Federal Reserve officials collectively hawkish overnight.
ETF net inflows for 6 consecutive days. On September 24, net inflow was $190.7 million, IBIT led with $162.6 million, totaling about $2.84 billion over 6 days. Binance single-day net outflow exceeded 13,800 BTC, platform reserves dropped from 705,000 to 685,000 BTC in 4 days.
Today's focus: $15.6 billion options expiration. About 182,000 contracts settle today at 8:00 UTC, put/call ratio 0.71, maximum pain point at 76,000. Coinglass shows that breaking above 88,267 triggers short liquidation intensity of $1.401 billion; falling below 80,259 triggers long liquidation intensity of $1.345 billion.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #Muse accelerates expansion, MetaAI investment may usher in monetization. Folks, Meta's moves at the Connect conference are no longer just about hyping the AI concept; they are genuinely paving the way to monetize AI.
Let's first look at what they've done. They launched the standalone AI device Muse Charm, integrated Muse into smart glasses, and added service connections with retail giants like Walmart, Best Buy, and Gap. JPMorgan directly stated that Muse has the potential to become the most widely used consumer AI application after ChatGPT. Driven by this expectation, Meta's stock price has strengthened significantly since September, with its market value approaching $2 trillion.
Let me translate the core logic behind this for you. Previously, people worried that Meta's AI efforts were a bottomless money pit. Now, by combining hardware and services, they've turned the AI Agent into an entry point that helps you shop. You say a command to the glasses or small device, and it places an order for you at Walmart. This is no longer just a chat tool; it directly links traffic and transactions.
But don't just look at the thief eating the meat and ignore the thief getting hit. The market has already priced in very high expectations for Meta's AI investment returns, so the risk of overvaluation is right in front of us. The most critical next step is whether the Muse ecosystem can truly generate solid revenue through subscription fees or transaction commissions. Selling hardware alone cannot support a $2 trillion valuation.
This also reflects on our crypto circle. The deep integration of AI and consumer hardwareEarnings Observer: Walmart's Results Released, Oracle Takes Over
Walmart's earnings report laid out the resilience of U.S. retail on the table. Total revenue reached 172 billion, up 6.8%, e-commerce business grew by 22%, and gross margin also improved. People are still spending, just more selectively; inflation stickiness won't dissipate quickly, so the Fed's rate cut pace will be delayed, and BTC will remain trapped in the interest rate expectations cage in the short term.
Next week is Oracle's turn. It tests another line: whether cloud infrastructure and AI orders can continue to translate into revenue. Last quarter, Oracle grew by 4%, Microsoft Cloud by 3%, and the cloud computing sector has already priced in optimistic sentiment. If Oracle's earnings exceed expectations and the AI infrastructure narrative continues to heat up, the computing power and electricity logic behind BTC will also benefit. If it falls short, tech stocks will be pressured, and BTC won't escape the correlation.
Currently, BTC is tugging around 92,000, with dense selling pressure between 95,000 and 96,000 above, and 90,000 as a short-term defense line below. Walmart proved consumption hasn't collapsed, implying a high probability the Fed will hold steady in November, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains pressured above 4.8%. In this environment, it's difficult for BTC to break out into a one-sided trend. Oracle's earnings report is the next trigger point, but don't rush to bet before the data lands. Wait for the direction to become clear before making a move. $BTC $ETH $SOL
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？
What pushed BTC down was not the rate hike, but an economic data report.
▪️ On 9/24, stronger-than-expected business activity data pushed the 10-year US Treasury yield to 5.196% (the highest since 2007)
▪️ October rate hike pricing rose from 40.1% to 69.7%; BTC hit an 8-month high of 87,397 on 9/21
▪️ On 9/24, BTC dropped 3.8%, longs were liquidated for 270 million; on the same day, ETF net inflows were 190.7 million
The divergence is not about whether BTC has become insensitive to interest rates, but that the money hit by rates and the money not hit are not the same. The liquidated positions are borrowed funds, while the incoming funds are cash on the books.
From 9/17, six days of zero ETF outflows: 9/21 single-day 999 million, 9/22 still 715 million. But the cumulative amount until 9/23 only turned positive for the first time in 2026, about 320 million.
So the question "Can institutional funds maintain the rhythm?" is off: this is not a rhythm, it is wiping out more than nine months of accounts at once. The only thing that can break six consecutive positives is: the first net outflow.
There will be another rate hike landing. Are you betting that the allocation side can withstand it, or that the first net outflow will come first?🔥 The most common mistake these days is mistaking "consolidation" for "an imminent trend reversal."
🧠 BTC has not yet completed a valid breakout, so my approach is simple: if the range isn't broken, continue trading within the range; watch the upper boundary for breakout strength and the lower boundary for support strength, and do not preemptively bet on a trend before confirmation.
📈 $ETH is currently the line I prefer to keep observing for bullish momentum. The long position of 【70 ETH】 currently has an unrealized profit of about 【19,990U】, with key support at 【2626】. If the short-term holds above 【2670】, first target is 【2706】; only after a volume breakout will I look toward 【2750—2800】; if it falls below 【2626】, the bullish logic needs to be reassessed.
🟢 ZEC is in a strong consolidation. As long as 【1500】 holds, short-term upward moves can be watched; after breaking 【1655】, look for further upside; if a pullback occurs, it is better to wait for support around 【1530—1500】 rather than chasing the rising candles.
📉 SNDK’s structure is relatively weak, with clear selling pressure after the rally. Focus first on the 【1700】 support; only consider extending to 【1900】 after reclaiming 【1800】; if it breaks below 【1700】, it’s better to stay out and wait for new opportunities.
🎯 So my core principle now is: if the range isn’t broken, don’t bet early; after breakout confirmation, follow the trend. **Markets happen every day, but high leverage leaves no room for mistakes. #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ " 截至目前，OKX现货 ONDO 报价 $0.5482，24小时涨幅达到 27.34%。 同期 BTC 和 ETH 小幅下跌，ONDO 的上涨主要集中在 Ondo 宣布 Intelligent Portfolios 之后，呈现出明显的独立行情特征。 1️⃣ 从单一证券上链到资产配置上链 首批产品包括： BLKHIon： 打包收益型配置 BLKDIGon： 平衡增长型配置 BLKGRWon： 高增长型配置 这些产品将不同配置策略整合为单一代币。 底层持仓、资产权重以及定期再平衡信息均可在链上查看，同时支持转移或接入 DeFi。 RWA 的产品形态正在从“单一证券上链”向“资产配置上链”演进，但实际需求规模仍有待验证。 2️⃣ BlackRock 的角色与产品限制 BlackRock 仅提供非全权委托的模型投资策略，并不负责产品发行、管理或运营。 产品由 Ondo 执行，仅向获批地区符合资格的非美国投资者开放。 3️⃣ 关键问题：ONDO 代币能否捕获价值？ 更重要的是，目前 ONDO 主要承担治理功能。 新投资组合产生的申购规模和费用，并不会自动流向 ONDO 代币持有者。 因此，产品增长表面红彤彤，底下却在悄悄换座位 🍓 这波上涨，真的是风险偏好回来了，还是只是少数币在撑场面？ BTC摸到2700附近的高点，但更大级别的85000始终没碰到，振幅偏大、方向向上。我手里只留了五分之一仓位，中途其实动过全清的念头，结果睡过去没看，醒来发现已经回本还有浮盈。这种"侥幸守住"的感觉，比赚钱本身更值得记一笔。 真正让我在意的不是BTC，是ZEC。弹性大、波动大，我打算用五分之一仓位做短线，一边买一边找机会空。这种打法本身就说明一件事：现在的钱不是在无差别扩散，而是在挑弹性最好、故事最顺的那几个点集中下注。 看多的一侧很清晰。趋势向上，大级别没破位，山寨里像ZEC这种高波动品种开始有人愿意接，说明愿意承担风险的边际资金还在场内。只要BTC不跌回关键区间，板块强弱会继续轮，强势品种先走。 但风险也藏在这里。BTC冲高但够不到更高整数关口，振幅放大往往意味着多空分歧在加大，而不是单边笃定。如果领涨的只是少数高弹性币，而BTC和ETH没有跟上，那这不是风险偏好扩散，更像是一次收缩后的局部抱团。一旦龙头歇脚，弹性最大的那个往往也跌得最快。 我自己的节奏是：仓位不重，不追高，把ZEC当短21% of Americans are stuck waiting for tax forms
New IRS regulations have been implemented: exchanges only report how much you sold, not your cost basis.
The data looks like this: trades in 2025, brokers report income but not cost. Cost basis will only be added in 2026.
What are they betting on: that you can’t calculate it correctly and end up paying tax twice. Even if you don’t receive a 1099-DA, you still have to report it, says the IRS.
Common pitfalls for retail investors: waiting for forms leads to extensions, and even when forms arrive, some parts are still missing.
Who is the counterparty? It’s the platform that charges you fees but doesn’t provide your cost data.
My position is small; I’ve been liquidated and held on, but taxes are harsher than liquidation. Liquidation means losing money; this means losing money and having to pay tax on it again.
#稳定币新规推进，支付结算加速落地
#美股探索代币化与全天候交易 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 $HYPE Friday night session flow report — ETF inflows continued for another day, but $BTC on this 1H chart moved down first.
SoSoValue recorded a net inflow of about 191 million USD into spot ETFs on 9/24 Eastern Time, marking the sixth consecutive day; IBIT led with about 163 million, FBTC followed with about 12.86 million, totaling roughly 2.8 billion USD over six days. However, OKX spot's daytime high touched 85258, now hovering around 83840, with the 24h low still at 83387 — money is coming in, but the price has left some behind.
Spot 24h trading volume is about 480 million U. First, let's see if 83500/83380 can hold; above that, 84500 needs to be reclaimed before moving forward. $ETH is around 2690, so don't recklessly add leverage on either side.
$BTC $ETH #BTC #Bitcoin #ETH #DataAnalysis #ETF #CapitalInflow #FridayNightSession #RiskWarning
The above is only personal observation and does not constitute investment advice. Contracts carry risks; enter the market cautiously.#霍尔木兹重开现转机，油价风险溢价会降吗？
A breakthrough appears in the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, will the oil price risk premium decrease?
On September 25, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi confirmed during the UN General Assembly that a new negotiation draft had been submitted to the US, proposing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days on conditions including cessation of all hostile actions, unfreezing about $12 billion in assets, lifting oil sanctions and maritime blockade. US-Iran negotiation representatives are discussing a phased agreement in New York, with the core being "navigation in exchange for unfreezing."
The market has already reacted in advance. Brent crude oil intraday losses widened to 2.3%, falling below $98/barrel; WTI dropped 2.5% to $92.25. Analysts say that as expectations for Gulf supply restoration rise, the market is easing some geopolitical risk premiums.
But the premium decline is sentiment-driven, not structural. Both the US and Iran "are unwilling to make the first concession," with the US claiming to "hold the advantage and is in no rush to reach an agreement," and Iranian officials admitting the possibility of diplomatic resolution is "very small." Brent still retains a larger maritime route premium than WTI because the supply disruption risk at Hormuz has not truly disappeared.
Sentiment can be repriced in a day, but supply restoration requires both sides to actually sign. What do you think? Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 🔥 After $BTC dropped back near 【84,000】, one data point is actually more worth watching than the candlestick chart — ETF funds are still flowing in.
📊 On September 24, the net inflow of US spot BTC ETFs totaled about 【$191 million】, maintaining positive inflows for the 【6th consecutive day】; among them, BlackRock IBIT contributed about 【$163 million】. The cumulative inflow over six trading days has already exceeded 【$2.8 billion】.
🧠 What does this mean? At least it indicates that after BTC retreated from around 【87,000】, institutional demand for ETF funds has not shown a clear reversal for now. The price is adjusting, but allocation funds have not withdrawn in sync; this divergence between the two is worth continued observation.
⚠️ However, there is one detail that cannot be ignored: the single-day ETF inflow has dropped from nearly 【$1 billion】 on Monday down to 【$191 million】 on Thursday. So a more accurate way to put it now is "funds are still entering," rather than "buying pressure is getting stronger."
🛡️ The real key going forward is whether price and funds can resonate. If BTC stabilizes and ETFs continue to flow in, it shows support remains; if the price continues to weaken and ETFs start to flow out, the logic is completely different.
🎯 So this time I won’t just focus on the phrase "institutions are buying." Fund flows are clues, but price is the final confirmation.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ 🔥 BTC has retreated from above 【87,000】, and the price is cooling down, but a batch of funds has not yet left.
💰 On September 24, the US spot BTC ETF continued to record a net inflow of about 【$191 million】, marking 【6 consecutive trading days】 of positive inflows. Even more astonishing, BlackRock alone absorbed about 【$163 million】 in a single day, with one ETF taking up the vast majority of that day's increase.
🧩 This creates a very interesting contrast: BTC is falling from a high level, but ETFs have not simultaneously seen large-scale withdrawals. At least this indicates that the current price correction has not immediately caused this portion of funds to change their allocation direction.
⚠️ But don't rush to interpret this as "Wall Street blindly bullish." Although the cumulative inflow over these 6 days exceeds 【$2.8 billion】, the daily inflow has been declining for three consecutive days. Funds are still coming in, but the buying momentum is slowing down.
🎯 So what I’m more focused on now is this: whether ETFs can continue to maintain net inflows during BTC’s pullback. If the price keeps falling and funds start to flow out continuously, that will be a real warning signal.
👀 Brothers, do you think institutions are accumulating on dips, or is ETF money just temporarily unable to withdraw? $BTC #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 Mid-Autumn Festival sixth gold short position, took profit on the 4306 long position and reversed to short, all six trades closed.
In the afternoon, gold hit 4306, entered short immediately.
At 4295, took profit as planned, pocketed 7911 oil.
11 points range, closed at the target.
This trade is interesting: the previous long position just took profit at 4306, then reversed to short at the same level.
Not guessing the top, just acting on the signal, switching between long and short without hesitation.
The market doesn't take holidays, neither does discipline.
How many trades did you make today? Let's chat in the comments. $XAU #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 9/25 $ZEC Real-time Overview
① Current price about $1,590, 24h increase 3.2%~8.8%, the highest gain among major coins; market cap 26.3 billion ranks 9th
② Reason for increase: short squeeze driven—short positions liquidated from $710K to $2.37M in a single hour, no long liquidations, a typical short squeeze; correlation with BTC only 0.26, showing an independent trend
③ Key levels: resistance at 1,605 → 1,700~1,750; support at 1,488 is the critical line (with about 44 million long leveraged positions below), if broken look for 1,220
④ Suggestion: up 98% in 30 days, RSI 63 still relatively high, daily chart shows bearish divergence. Do not chase the high. Holders should take profits in batches around 1,600; new entries wait for a pullback to 1,488 to stabilize before entering lightly, exit if broken.
$BTC $ETH #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 迁移到以太坊，或许只是 L1 经济体系彻底失败后的一种“体面退场”。 1️⃣ 8月跨分片漏洞事件 据原文描述，8月的跨分片漏洞被利用，导致约3万亿枚 ONE 被伪造，相当于流通供应量的200倍。 团队不得不回滚超过14万个区块，严重冲击了整条链的信任基础。 这也是继2022年 Horizon 跨链桥遭朝鲜黑客攻击、近1亿美元资产被盗之后，Harmony 再次面临的用户信任危机。 2️⃣ 链上经济活动几乎归零 TVL 从峰值10亿美元暴跌至15万美元，基本接近于零，链上每日手续费收入也微乎其微。 这一次，关闭旧链并全面迁移至以太坊，看起来更像是一种更体面的放弃方式。 基本面已经严重恶化，团队未来是否还会继续投入资源，也成为市场关注的问题。 链上经济活动几乎停滞，市值缩水至数千万美元级别。 验证者关闭节点，并领取总计137万美元的补偿资金，转而成为治理参与者。 结语： 对于 $ONE 持有者而言，当前的生态状况无疑令人担忧。 旧链关闭、经济活动萎缩、信任受损，未来能否通过以太坊迁移重建生态，仍存在很大的不确定性。 不要忽视风险，也不要仅凭过去的辉煌对未来抱有过高期待。 #ONE #Harm"Using Held Bitcoin $BTC as Contract Margin? Beware the "Multiplier Effect" of Double Crashes"
Many exchanges support "coin-margined contracts" or "cross-margin with multiple coins," allowing retail investors to directly convert their held Bitcoin $BTC spot into USD as margin for opening positions.
Many retail investors think this lets them hold spot while profiting from swings, but they overlook the death spiral behind it:
1. Collateral value depreciation: When the market plunges sharply, your long position itself incurs losses, while the Bitcoin spot used as margin also plummets in value simultaneously.
2. Forced liquidation line passively advances: If stablecoins are used as margin, the liquidation line is fixed; but when BTC is used as margin, the worse the coin price drops, the less your total margin becomes, and the liquidation line actively moves toward the current price like a magnet.
3. Double breach leaves nothing: A sudden sharp drop not only wipes out the contract losses but also causes the originally intended long-term held Bitcoin spot collateral to be forcibly deducted and auctioned by the system.
If you want to hold Bitcoin $BTC long-term, honestly separate your spot holdings. Never use your core collateral as margin for any leveraged trading.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 今晚 8 点，约 17.6 亿枚（原流通约 63%）团队/投资人悬崖解锁开闸，而且这只是跑到 2028 年 9 月的月度释放第一枪。 本来预期会砸盘，但盘面偏不按常理：解锁前就从 0.09 附近暴力推到 0.1255，24h 一度涨近 25%，成交约 1.96 亿枚；截至 21:30，OKX 现货回落到 0.110 一带，高点仍是那根 0.12557。 看懂这波预期差，盯三个细节： 不是轧空：合约资金费率大概就 0.005%，盘上没什么拥挤空头可爆，更像现货在抢筹码。 锁仓故事还没落地：官方想靠 Plasma One / Aurora 锁一年换权益来吸抛压，但新增浮筹量级摆在那，链上还没看到能对得上的净沉淀。 团队筹码悬着：早盘团队地址转出约 3 亿枚，二级市场暂时没砸出来，不等于不会砸。 交易逻辑很简单：利空落地不崩，要么是借流动性拉高派发（Exit Liquidity），要么是锁仓预期暂时托住了盘。 别被大阳线冲昏头-重点看 0.10 突破位回踩。 卖单墙堆起来、跌破 0.10，更像诱多出逃。 踩稳了，再谈锁仓叙事能不能续命。【BTC 83,857｜87K Pullback, 83K Begins to Take Control of the Pace】
BTC has pulled back from above 87K to around 83K, digesting much of the previous rapid surge. What's interesting now is that ETF funds are still flowing in, but the price hasn't continued to rise, indicating that short-term bulls and bears are rebalancing.
Key short-term focus is on 82.8K–83.5K. If this range holds and BTC climbs back above 85K, there is still a chance to retest 86K–87K; if 82.8K is decisively broken, watch for a pullback to 81K–82K.
Another point to note today: September 25 is the quarterly BTC options expiration date, with a notional size close to $16 billion, which could further amplify short-term volatility.
Regarding contracts, it’s not appropriate to assume the bottom just because BTC is at 83K. First, check if support holds; 83K is a buffer zone for bulls, while losing 82.8K means the correction may not be over yet. #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？
This is only a market opinion and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC FIL
The Web3 storage sector is approaching a milestone tokenomics turning point: On October 15, 2026, the vesting period for the team shares of Protocol Labs and the Filecoin Foundation will officially end. This event will directly reduce the annual new issuance of FIL by about 75%, reshaping the fundamental token supply. It marks a watershed moment in Filecoin's tokenomics. After years of team share vesting concluding, 75% of new supply will be cut, significantly lowering inflation levels. Moving forward, whether the network can transition from low inflation to deflation depends on the actual adoption speed of AI storage and commercial data storage. The supply-side scenario is ready, and the demand-side outcome is being written by the entire ecosystem. The narrower the oscillation, the more agonizing it is; the breakout is all the more decisive.
BTC and ETH keep playing dead, the market pressure is strong, but they refuse to reveal their cards early.
This round of back-and-forth tug-of-war has already lasted five days.
$ETH hovers around 2618, when it touches 2656 some sell off, and when it dips to 2592 it gets bought back up. I’m still holding my long at 2632, sold half at the high yesterday, and bought back in on the support retest today, continuing to grind with it.
$BTC is even more ridiculous, fluctuating repeatedly between 79,000 and 81,000. Those chasing longs are stuck at 80,600, shorts missed the opportunity at 78,400, the back-and-forth is confusing. If by tomorrow morning it still can’t find direction, a batch of people will start doubting themselves based on the chart.
$SOL is doing its own thing, up 3 points from 148 to 153. Strong assets never care about the overall market mood; the stronger the surge, the fiercer the pullback. In this market, I just watch and don’t act.
Recently, the one-sided market kept teaching lessons back and forth, and these days of sideways trading are roasting longs and shorts alike. Ultimately, the biggest fear in a consolidation zone is frequent switching of sides—you just turn bullish and it dips slowly, you just turn bearish and it rallies sharply, and in the end your account is all lost to slippage.
No rush to add positions, keep holding longs.
Until the range breaks, all fluctuations are just tests.
The longer the sideways, the fiercer the breakout.
Bears don’t give up, bulls don’t quit, waiting for the market to reveal its cards. $BTC $ZEC $SOL
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 The name Hester Peirce should be familiar to veteran players.
In the circle, she's called the "Crypto Mom," one of the few in the SEC who doesn't see the crypto world as thieves.
This time, she said KYC and AML need to be reconsidered.
Her reason hits hard: the more data you collect, the harder it becomes to spot the real problems.
I agree with that.
Filling out forms until you're sick of it—passport, address, selfies—it's more troublesome than applying for a visa.
And the result? The funds that should run still run, the laundering still happens.
Now she proposes zero-knowledge proofs, meaning you can prove compliance without showing all your underwear.
Sounds great.
But a prediction: when such words come from a commissioner’s mouth to actual implementation, there’s still a vast distance in between.
Don’t rush to treat this as a bullish signal.
#稳定币新规推进，支付结算加速落地
#美股探索代币化与全天候交易 #高利率下，黄金还能走多远？ $BTC 🔥 Sometimes the most dangerous thing is not that the market doesn't fall, but that you find your "bearish reasons" gradually disappearing.
📊 I've been watching 【82,812】 closely these days, originally expecting BTC to accelerate its drop after breaking this level, but the market's answer is completely different: repeated tests without forming an effective breakout.
🧩 Breaking down the macro variables makes the logic even more interesting. Previously, the market quickly priced in another rate hike in October, but UBS's latest judgment suggests that the expectation of consecutive hikes may be overestimated, and subsequent PCE revisions and inflation data will be the key to determining policy direction.
📉 If rate hike expectations cool down, and pressure from oil prices and US Treasury yields ease, then the previously suppressive "high interest rate story" on risk assets will weaken. BTC's inability to fall might be the market digesting this part of the expectations.
⚠️ But this doesn't mean the bears are completely done. As long as inflation heats up again, oil prices rise once more, or yields break previous highs again, the logic just mentioned could fully reapply.
🎯 So my approach is not to switch to going long immediately, but to first close out shorts and wait for clear macro signals again. Trading isn't black or white; when the logic changes, positions should change accordingly.
👀 Do you think BTC holding 【82,812】 is building a bottom, or just waiting for the next downward breakout? $BTC #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ 🔥 I was originally waiting for BTC to give the bears a hard hit, but what came instead was a "logic failure."
📉 In the past few days, BTC has repeatedly slammed around 【82,812】, each time looking like it would break through, only to be pulled back the next second. The price doesn't speak, but this repeated support itself is a signal: the market is not giving up this level easily.
🧠 Later I realized that what might really be loosening is not BTC, but the macro expectations on which the bears rely. The market once priced in about a 70% chance of continued rate hikes in October, but UBS believes this continuous rate hike pricing might be overdone. If the core PCE revision comes in lower, the subsequent tightening space will be reassessed.
🛢️ On the other side, pressure from oil prices and US Treasury yields is also showing signs of easing. The "high oil price + high interest rate" combo punch from a few days ago is loosening.
⚠️ So for now, I'm not shorting. It's not that I've suddenly turned bullish, nor that I've given up, but the original shorting premise needs to be re-verified.
🎯 If later data continues to prove that rate hike expectations are overheated, I'll keep waiting; if oil prices surge again and yields break higher, then the bear scenario naturally returns.
👀 Do you think holding 【82,812】 this time means funds are starting to reverse position, or is it just the last bull trap before a crash? $BTC #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ 📊 MARKET THOUGHTS | REVERSE THE OBVIOUS A huge whale transfer does not automatically mean a dump. A long-dormant wallet reportedly moved around 4,200 BTC, worth roughly $360M. For now, the confirmed fact is the transfer itself — not an actual sale. If a large holder truly wanted to distribute into strengthDay 2
Today there were seven trades in total, with the lowest point only at 1.16, almost quitting the crypto space.
Summary:
Problems: 1️⃣ During daytime trading sessions, the trend was identified correctly, but the price was bought during consolidation periods, resulting in small gains that couldn't even cover the fees. 2️⃣ Problems occurred when hastily buying in while the major trend and minor trend were contradictory. 3️⃣ When losses appeared, impatience led to self-denial, which expanded losses, and then rushing to recover losses without detailed analysis before acting.
Optimization plan:
1️⃣ When major and minor trends differ, mainly observe and wait.
2️⃣ After one operational mistake, rest for at least 2 hours before the next action.
3️⃣ When major and minor trends align, look for low points to buy (do not assume a certain point is the lowest based on feelings like "the next candlestick will rise" or "the next candlestick will fall").
4️⃣ Pay attention to resistance levels, rather than arbitrarily setting stop-loss points.AI agents can radically change the financial system.
But along with new opportunities arises a fundamental question: who will control the money managed by these agents?
If a few large platforms gain control over the agents, they could potentially determine where funds can be moved, which financial products are available to the user, and which services the agent can interact with.
Therefore, the future agent economy requires not only smart models but also an open financial infrastructure.
An AI agent must act in the interest of its user.
Its powers must be clearly defined: which funds it can use, which operations are allowed, for what term, and within what limits.
The user must have the ability to revoke these permissions at any time — a kind of "kill switch" for the financial agent.
Transparency is no less important. Every action of the agent must leave a verifiable trace: what was done, when, with which funds, and based on which permission.
Another principle is portability.
The settings, interaction history, preferences, and digital identity of the agent should not remain forever inside one platform.
The user must retain the ability to change providers without losing their own financial context.
This changes the role of blockchain.
Its value for AI may lie not only in payments but in creating an open layer through which agents can interact with various financial services without a single control center.
In such a model, AI is responsible for decision-making, and the open financial infrastructure is responsible for executing those decisions according to set rules and permissions.
The next stage of AI development may not just be about how smart agents become.
The question is how freely they can act in the user's interest — and how much control the user retains over them.$LSK
LSK dropped sixteen points today, down 0.346. The decline is already scary enough, but what's really strange is the rate — negative 0.21%! The shorts are paying the longs to hold the price down, indicating that the shorts are crowded together.
Positions dropped 8.3%, with longs cutting losses and running. On one side, shorts are clustered; on the other, longs are surrendering. This market looks really grim.
But shorts shouldn't get too cocky yet. With such a negative rate, a decent bullish candle could trigger a wave of short covering, causing a quick stampede.
Catching a falling knife is a life-risking gamble. Watch more, act less, and wait for it to choose its own direction.
$LSK US Treasury bonds have crashed, and Er Gou's short positions were crushed by a steamroller.
Brothers, today Er Gou passed by a real estate agent and saw the 30-year mortgage rate at 7.45%, his legs went weak.
The 10-year US Treasury yield hit 5.2%, the 30-year soared to 5.46%, both the highest since 2007. Er Gou translates: money is as expensive as Er Gou's ex-girlfriend; asking her to come back is even harder than waiting for Bitcoin to hit 80,000.
Fed's Williams is still saying a rate hike before year-end is "reasonable," and CME shows a 54% chance of a hike in October. But Er Gou thinks carefully, probably no move in October; the real killer is the long-term interest rates—when these go up, corporate financing gets expensive, mortgages get costly, and all funds flow into US Treasuries.
Er Gou's Bitcoin is still holding at 84,000, Ethereum at 2,685 lying flat. The biggest fear this round isn't rate hikes, but long-term rates staying high, sucking out funds, leaving risk assets helpless.
Er Gou's strategy: defend Bitcoin at 84,000, Ethereum at 2,660; if broken, reduce positions. Avoid high leverage, wait for long-term rates to stabilize before acting. Don't be the short position crushed by the steamroller. $ENA The most unusual detail today is not that it rose 12.29%, but that its current price of 0.2431 has already climbed above the Bollinger upper band at 0.242269 — the only coin in the sector using the upper band as support.
A horizontal comparison makes it clear. $LINK rose 11.64% today, with a similar increase, but its RSI is only 63.9, and the price at 13.9 is still below the upper band at 14.1635, indicating strength but no breakout; $MORPHO is weaker, down 5.93% in 24h, RSI 42.8, MACD bearish, MA5 is above MA20 but the price has fallen below the Bollinger lower band near 2.7411, making it a drag in the sector. $ENA's RSI is highest at 71.0, MACD histogram +0.00175 maintains bullishness, MA5=0.23636 > MA20=0.22684 bullish alignment, and the 30 candlesticks have a volatility of 20.78%, the largest among the three, indicating the most intense pricing divergence and best elasticity of capital here. The funding rate is +0.0050%, positive but not extreme, greed index at 71, sentiment is hot but not out of control.
The direction is bullish, but do not chase at the upper band. A pullback to around MA5 0.2364 is the first observation point and also the confirmation level after breaking above the upper band; if the pullback is deeper, MA20 0.2268 is the trend bottom line. Last year, a friend pulled me into a group chat
Watching people show off their orders every day
I was itching to try it
Bought some $BTC
It dropped right after I bought
Even my appetite was gone
Later, I held on until I broke even
Quickly sold it
Made enough for a barbecue
I calmed down after that
Now I only use spare money to buy $ETH
If it drops, I don't add more
If it rises, I don't chase
The calls in the group
I just take them as jokes
If they were really that accurate
They would have quietly gotten rich themselves
I also tried $SOL
It’s really fast
My heart couldn't keep up
Sold it after two days
Sleep well at night
This stuff
Playing with spare money is fine
Borrowing money to chase is a trap
Don't think about getting rich overnight
First think about what to do if you lose everything
I rarely check the market now
Work when I should work
Sleep when I should sleep
Earnings are luck
Losses are tuition
Living steadily is better than anything else#财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
#Muse加速扩张，MetaAI投入或迎来变现 ETH has been quite strong these past two days, rising 6% in two days, surging to 2777, even fiercer than BTC.
Everyone is just looking at its rise, but I'm focusing on another thing: ETH/BTC.
Throughout this whole year, ETH has been the "dragging leg" compared to BTC, falling more and rising less. This time it has finally turned around.
What does this indicate? Money in the crypto space is willing to flow from BTC to ETH. BTC is for survival, ETH is for offense. Money flowing from survival to offense means people not only want to hold steady but also want to take a shot.
But there's also a reminder. After ETH reached 2777, the RSI is already at 72, which in jargon means overbought. Overbought doesn't mean it will drop immediately, but it suggests the easiest profit phase might be over.
Where the funds flow is more worth watching than how high it rises.
I swapped some BTC for ETH this round, how about you? $AAVE short: +14.24%
$EGLD long: +10.58%
$CL crude oil short: -24.42% 😅
Two winning trades barely made up for one macro loss.
The takeaway: macro-driven commodities can move aggressively, especially when you stay stubborn on a short.
Meanwhile, $BTC is holding up relatively well as liquidity continues to support the broader thesis.
#DailyOrbit #USTreasuryYieldsRise #CostcoBeatsMicronNext Brothers, at the gambling table, no one can see through the next move before it is revealed. $BTC is clearly under heavy bearish pressure, yet it is consolidating sideways, repeatedly shaking out positions, leaving people puzzled.
On-chain data is quietly shifting. Binance just recorded the largest single-day net BTC outflow since 2023, with over 13,800 coins withdrawn in one day, and reserves down by 20,000 coins over four days. Exchange balances are dropping, meaning immediate selling pressure is decreasing, which is a typical sign of coin accumulation. Long-term holders are not dumping either; they have only realized about 72% profit so far, far below the nearly 350% level in December last year, so they are in no rush to sell.
ETFs are still continuously buying. On September 24, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $191 million, with BlackRock alone taking in $163 million, marking six consecutive days of net inflows. Institutions are backing with real money.
But the FOMC is a sword hanging overhead. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in September, and the dot plot shows one more hike this year, with the probability of a rate hike in October rising to 75%. High interest rates suppress risk assets, which is also why BTC is repeatedly consolidating around 84,000.
Technically, BTC is tugging between 84,000 and 87,000, with 86,700 as key resistance above and 80,400 as the 365-day moving average support below. Volume is shrinking, and both bulls and bears are waiting for direction.
I’m holding my short position; if it breaks above 86,000, I will stop loss and look for a suitable rebound point to switch to long. $ETH $ZEC #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ Jumper wants to be independent, raising money by selling tokens
Jumper was originally a cross-chain feature within LI.FI.
Now it wants to spin off and become its own company.
Where does the money come from:
It doesn’t seek investors by selling shares, instead it sells JUMP tokens.
How is this number calculated:
Token sales are the initial financing, and tokens will only be issued after the financing is complete.
In other words, money is collected first, then tokens are issued.
In plain terms:
Equity financing sells part of the company, token financing sells a ticket that hasn’t been printed yet.
Buyers receive tokens, not shares.
The company doesn’t have to give up decision-making power, but the cost is that these people have to wait for the tokens to actually go live.
Anyone who has fallen into the same trap knows that paying first and receiving goods later is the most uncertain period.
#ARK将13亿美元风投基金代币化
#美股探索代币化与全天候交易 #稳定币新规推进，支付结算加速落地 $BTC The previous round's target close at 85K was not confirmed, and the $BTC public quote has returned to about $84,040; this does not equate "failing to stand above" directly with bearishness, but rather indicates that the breakout conditions have not yet been met.
Astekz's original condition was: first stand above 85K, then have two 4-hour candlesticks hold above it before considering short-term long positions on altcoins. The public result is that the price has fallen back near 84,040, and 85K has not yet formed an effective close confirmation; the original condition remains untriggered, so selective backtesting as a "successful breakout" is not justified.
My adjustment is: first change 85K from an entry line to an observation line, with 84K as the short-term sentiment boundary; only if 85K is reclaimed with volume will I consider the pullback as followable, otherwise a rebound near 85K is still treated as resistance. If it breaks below 82.8K, I will further reduce risk.
Will you wait for a confirmed close above 85K again, or first see if 82.8K holds? This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. Many people ask why FET suddenly surged by more than ten points, so let me explain clearly. A few days ago, the ASI alliance experienced a security incident: the cross-chain bridge between Fetch.ai and SingularityNET was attacked, resulting in the theft of 8.7 million FET tokens and the illegal minting of a batch of tokens. Once the news broke, the price of the coin initially dropped sharply. However, the official confirmation came soon after: only the cross-chain bridge was compromised; the FET mainnet and the tokens themselves were unaffected, and the ecosystem continues to operate normally. Market panic was alleviated, and funds quickly bought back in. This is the direct reason for today's sharp rise — a corrective rebound after the negative news was fully absorbed, not because the fundamentals suddenly improved. Additionally, with the recent rotation in the AI sector and Bitcoin stabilizing, funds have flowed into altcoins, and FET, as a veteran AI sector token, naturally attracted attention. But I want to pour cold water on this: technical indicators are already overbought, this rally is driven by sentiment, not by performance. The lawsuit regarding Ocean's withdrawal from the ASI alliance has not been resolved, so the risk has not truly been eliminated. Coins that rebound after bad news tend to rise quickly but also fall quickly; those chasing the high are likely to get caught halfway up the mountain. Understanding the logic is fine, but don't FOMO. My principle remains unchanged: do not chase sentiment coins without fundamental support; set take-profit points for what you hold, and if you don't hold any, just watch the show. $FET $FIL Filecoin 2027 Strategic Development Layout
1. Technical Foundation: Storage → Verifiable Cloud → Integrated Storage and Computing
- Onchain Cloud: Officially promoted starting 2025, compatible with S3-style enterprise access, PDP (Proof/Posession of Data Possession) for verifiable proof of warm/hot storage, cross-chain data bridging IPFS/FVM.
- FVM/FEVM Smart Contracts: Continue tokenizing storage sectors, SLAs, payments, and data assets; the 2027 direction is FEVM and multi-chain adaptation, dataset trading, storage DeFi, AI agents autonomously placing storage orders.
- Finality and Retrieval: F3 fast finality (launched in 2025) will continue to be optimized; 2026–2027 will focus on supplementing the retrieval market/NV29-type upgrades to solve the long-standing issues of "storing capacity but slow retrieval." Speculation suggests NV29 mainly targets retrieval and F3 reduces confirmation latency, but official codenames depend on Lotus releases.
- Verifiable Computing/TEE/ZK: NV25 "Teep" direction focuses on TEE trusted execution and ZK precompilation, making "model training/inference proof without data leaving the storage network" a 2027 selling point.
- IPC Subnet/Layering: IPC subnets enable vertical scenarios (AI, medical, scientific research) to independently handle throughput, with the main chain only doing settlement and proof, solving the bottleneck of all transactions on the mainnet.
2. Business Route: From "competing for capacity" to "competing for real paid orders"
- Incentive Restructuring: Block rewards/service rewards shift towards real paid storage, order completion rate, retrieval SLA, and key customer retention; related discussions like FIP-0118/Solstice, Daybreak focus on "less empty computing power, more service rewards."
- Enterprise Access: Onchain Cloud provides S3 compatibility, console, stablecoin/fiat settlement; stablecoin pilots like USDFC reduce enterprises' reluctance to sign long-term contracts due to FIL price volatility.
- Storage Provider Transformation: From "packaging computing power for tokens" to "accepting enterprise orders by GB/month, implementing hot/cold tiering, and compliance auditing" as cloud service providers.
3. Core Narrative for 2027: AI Verifiable Data Layer
This is Filecoin's main battlefield from 2026 to 2027:
- Long-term archiving of training sets/weights/multimodal data with CID content addressing, PDP possession proof, and timestamp evidence;
- Data provenance: addressing AI copyright/compliance for synthetic data, with Foundation repeatedly emphasizing at conferences "In the AI era, it must be provable who owns and produces data";
- Collaborations with intermediaries like Akave, Ramo, Storacha to build AI dataset markets, edge AI caching, and agent memory storage;
- Storage-computing synergy: storage nodes augmented with GPU/TEE, combined with io.net-like DePIN for "nearby training/inference," but 2027 focuses more on the "data layer" rather than fully replacing AWS computing power.
4. Ecosystem and Token Economics (Expected Direction for 2027)
- Reward Halving and Selling Pressure: If community expectations around October 2026 halving proceed, 2027 will be a supply contraction period "post-halving + early unlock basically ended"; however, FIL price still depends on real storage revenue, not just halving.
- Burning/Fees: If FIP-100 style "partial fee burning" continues, combined with enterprise order growth, network fee burning can offset inflation.
- ProPGF/Grants: Official Batch 3 started in 2026, prioritizing AI infrastructure, SP growth tools, and customer-facing products; in 2027, public goods funding will continue to exchange for "real customer numbers" rather than just TVL.
- Token Role: FIL mainly used for storage deposits/penalties/payment settlement, USDFC/stablecoins for enterprise billing cycles, reducing the vicious cycle of "price drop → miner sell-off → customers fear high costs."
5. 2027 Implementation Priorities (Judgment Version)
1. Enterprise cold archiving + compliance auditing (government/research/medical/media archives) — most stable, with existing models like Internet Archive, Harvard, Cornell;
2. AI training data proof + verifiable provenance — strongest narrative, main source of order growth in 2027;
3. Web3 native: NFT/frontend/DAO records/IPFS pinning — basic foundation;
4. Hot storage/CDN-level retrieval — only if PDP+NV29+FilBeam-like CDN meet standards, will dare to compete for some centralized cloud warm data;
5. Integrated storage and computing/TEE — mid to late stage, 2027 mostly PoC and customer pilots, not large-scale cloud computing replacement.
6. Risks and Uncertainties
- Retrieval latency, enterprise SLA, SOC2/HIPAA compliance certification lagging may limit 2027 to "cold archiving supplementing cloud";
- Overly aggressive shift from capacity to service rewards may cause small storage providers to exit, causing short-term effective capacity fluctuations;
- Competition with Arweave, Storj, Sia, Centrifuge, and centralized clouds in AI data layer will cause market fragmentation;
- Token side: macro, regulatory, and exchange liquidity will affect FIL but won't change the underlying logic of "technology adoption depends on real deal numbers."On September 25, oil prices fell on Friday as the market assessed the possibility of a US-Iran ceasefire negotiation.
In New York, talks are underway about a phased end to the conflict, including Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the US lifting economic sanctions. However, the Houthi forces are still attacking Saudi Arabia, so supply risks remain.
Reuters data is even more interesting: on Wednesday, only 10 bulk commodity ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz, 7 the day before, with a 10-day daily average of 17 ships. Negotiations are negotiations, but actual shipping has not resumed, and true normalization is still far off.
Currently, oil prices are being pulled by two factors: negotiation expectations and actual supply.
If negotiations bring good news, oil prices drop a bit; when shipping data comes out, it shows supply is still tight, so short-term volatility will be large, and chasing news can lead to whipsaw moves.
For the crypto market, if oil prices remain high, inflation won't come down, and the Fed's rate hike expectations will persist, making BTC and other risk assets uncomfortable. Conversely, if oil prices really fall, risk assets can catch a breather.
Personally, I don't chase this kind of news-driven market. I'll wait until shipping data returns to normal. Watching the ships in the Strait of Hormuz is more reliable than watching the news.
Do you think oil prices will continue to fall?
#原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动 #霍尔木兹协议未落地，油价风险再升温？ #OKX星球话题来啦 $BZ $CL $USELESS Did nothing, just went to the restroom, and when I came back, the candlestick chart had already done the work for me.
Opened the market this morning, USELESS directly pushed up. A few days ago during the pullback, I saw it held steady, the buying pressure getting stronger wave after wave, so I placed a long order at 0.16315.
Now the price has reached 0.30700, floating profit +881.88%. Really awesome.
First took profit on 70%, pocketing the gains, moved the remaining 30% to a protective position near the cost price. Whether it surges or not is up to it, at least I'm not the one feeling uneasy.
Don't lose patience in the consolidation, then try to regain dignity in a one-sided move.
There are still opportunities, no need to rush. Wait for a new structure to form, don't chase hard at this position.
$BTC $ETH The key indicators we often focus on for Bitcoin have many misconceptions, and these misconceptions can cause us to miss out or sell too early.
1. Contract open interest does not indicate direction.
Many people think that the higher the open interest, the more likely a big drop will happen. In reality, open interest is also very high at the bottom of a bear market, sometimes even exceeding that at the top of a bull market, yet there is no massive crash.
What is the fundamental reason?
At the top of a bull market, open interest is very large, and high-leverage positions are very concentrated, such as 20x, 30x, 50x leverage. The more fomo and greedy the sentiment, the more likely traders are to use high leverage. Even a slight price movement triggers massive liquidations, which is the real cause.
The bear market bottom is different. Although open interest is also huge at the bottom, there is no crash because everyone is fearful and anxious. Those opening long positions are very cautious, mostly using 2x, 3x, or 5x leverage. A 10% price drop cannot liquidate them.
Some people see abnormally high open interest and worry about a crash. They want to buy the dip but miss the opportunity due to misreading the indicator.
Deleveraging means clearing high-leverage positions, not all leverage.
However, at the bear market bottom, large-scale short squeezes are more likely because the more pessimistic the market, the more people believe prices will fall further—for example, thinking the price will drop from 60,000 to 40,000 or 30,000. The whole industry brainwashes you, so short sellers open high-leverage short positions, going all-in with 10x, 20x, 50x leverage. When these high-leverage shorts accumulate, even a slight price increase triggers accelerated rallies. This logic is the opposite of the bull market top.Last summer, I was pulled into a group by an old classmate. He posted screenshots every day, saying how much he earned today. After seeing it so much, I got tempted and threw some money in. I bought $BTC. But right after buying, the price went down. Those days, I even hesitated to order takeout. After nearly two months of holding on, I finally broke even and quickly sold it. I earned enough for a hotpot meal. I became clear-headed. Now I only use spare money to buy some $ETH. If it drops, I don't add more. If it rises, I don't chase. The calls in the group, I just treat them as jokes. If they were really accurate, they'd have gotten rich quietly by now. I also tried $SOL. It moves fast, really fast. My heart couldn't keep up. I sold after holding for two days. I sleep well at night. This stuff, it's okay to play with spare money. Borrowing money to invest is a trap. Don't always think about getting rich overnight. First, think about what to do if you lose everything. I rarely check the market now. Work when it's time to work. Sleep when it's time to sleep. Earning is luck. Losing is tuition. Living steadily is better than anything. #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
#Muse加速扩张，MetaAI投入或迎来变现 BTC pulled back after surging to $87,400: Is it a shakeout or a failed breakout?
The daily trend remains bullish, with the 4-hour chart currently retesting for confirmation. There is strong resistance around $88,000, but it’s still too early to conclude that the entire rebound is over.
This rally is driven by both ETF spot buying and short stop-loss triggers, not just contract spikes.
During the pullback, open interest has clearly decreased, and funding rates briefly turned negative, indicating that high-leverage longs are being cleared. Although the price has corrected, ETFs still show net inflows, and exchange balances have not significantly increased.
At present, it looks more like profit-taking and high-level rotation rather than a concentrated institutional exit.
Technically, the daily chart remains above the short-term moving average, and the upward structure is intact. However, the 4-hour highs have started to decline, and volume has not expanded further, signaling that bulls have shifted from active offense to defense.
The focus now is on three key zones:
$83,000–$84,000 is the first support. Holding here still offers a chance to rebound to $86,000 and challenge $87,400–$88,000 again.
$80,000–$82,000 is the lifeline of this breakout. A retest without breaking this zone is a normal shakeout; if it breaks and the price fails to recover on a rebound, the market will enter a weak consolidation phase.
Only a strong breakout above $88,000 with volume can open the space toward $90,000–$92,000.
In the coming days, I lean toward consolidation first before choosing a direction. Watch $82,000 for support on positions; if you miss the entry, wait for a retest confirmation. The bias is bullish but does not mean every level is worth buying.