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#US long-term Treasury yields hit new highs again, with the 30-year approaching 5.7%
Both are the highest since 2002. The fixed income head at BMO said even more bluntly: breaking 6% on the 30-year is inevitable, possibly this month.
The strange thing is that at the same time, the US stock market is still hitting new highs. Nvidia closed at a record, SanDisk spun off from Western Digital and surged more than fortyfold, SPCX jumped 7.63% on Monday to $171, and Morgan Stanley set a target price of 300.
According to the old textbooks, this is unreasonable. But this round of long-end rise is not due to runaway inflation; it’s because the economy is too resilient and AI capital expenditure is eagerly awaited—a $60 billion chip financing has already been syndicated. Interest rates rise because borrowers are competing for money, not because a collapse is coming.
So Nvidia, SanDisk, and others can fill the valuation gap with real orders and real profits. BTC and ETH cannot; they have no cash flow, no molecular end, and when the denominator rises, they can only take the hit. BTC plunged to 83,648 this morning, wiping out over 400 million orders in an hour; Ethereum is softer, hanging at 2619 after breaking below 2600, down nearly 3% in four hours.
There’s another troublesome transmission: Goldman Sachs says the correlation between WTI and the 10-year US Treasury has reached a 35-year high. The Strait of Hormuz line is now controlled by US Treasuries—when oil prices rise, the bond market sells off again, the dollar strengthens, and finally the cryptocurrencies take the hit.
There are only two ways to ease this: oil prices come down, or this week’s US Treasury auction $BTC $ETH $SNDK This is a 75x short position opened at 1703.8, currently at 1637.5, with an unrealized profit of 291.84% (profit amount +0.06). Seeing the green numbers, I didn't dare to relax. The overall current position profit is very substantial. With consecutive wins and high unrealized profits on long positions, my hands are tighter than when I opened the first order—the bigger the profit, the more afraid I am of losing it all at once; the smoother it goes, the more afraid I am of drifting.
The market is showing a high-level oscillation followed by a breakdown and decline: peaked at 1743.4 then fell back, followed by consecutive bearish candles slowly dropping and breaking through the platform, bottoming at 1620.2, currently at 1637.7 (24h down 2.01%). Volume is 502 million, with 306,400 units traded. The bottom sell-off had volume but now is in a low-volume weak rebound. As the No.4 new coin/TradFi concept, the market is approaching disturbances from news such as "AI stock god Leopold's options expiration," but capital votes with its feet; no support means it's hollow. Currently, there is a slight rebound from 1620.2, indicating weak sideways movement.
Core risk points: new coin with high elasticity + 75x ultra-high leverage. The current price 1637 is close to the previous low of 1620.2, with all short profit positions below. With 75x leverage, a rapid 2% spike (up to around 1670) can drain most of the 290% profit or even approach breakeven. Sharp drops and fierce rebounds are iron rules; new coins are prone to sudden spikes due to market resonance or news stimuli. Low-volume sideways movement is the most patience-draining for shorts.$BTC BTC plummets to the 84,000 level! Bulls' defense faces a severe test
1-hour timeframe: Price quickly breaks downward, hitting an intraday low of 83,577, directly breaking below the lower Bollinger Band. Short-term selling pressure is concentrated and released, the KD indicator enters a low position, there will be a slight rebound for repair, but the rebound is mostly a pullback during the downtrend. The first resistance above is in the 85,100‑85,400 range.
4-hour timeframe: After peaking at 87,238, it faced pressure and fell back, with the candlestick body significantly bearish, already breaking below the middle Bollinger Band. The trend shifts from oscillating strong to oscillating weak. The 4-hour lower Bollinger Band is at 84,109, currently battling near this critical level. Once effectively broken, the downside space will further open.
Comprehensive judgment: Both timeframes simultaneously weaken, bulls have lost short-term dominance. Focus on guarding the 83,500 low support of this round; if support fails, a deeper correction will begin. Do not blindly chase rebounds; prioritize viewing them as repair moves.
Key levels
🔴 Resistance: 85,400, 86,400
🟢 Support: 83,570, then 82,200 Total liquidations across the network hit 550 million! ETH single-coin liquidations reached 175 million, my short positions got extended again!
Currently, ETH is at 2,614, down 3.19% intraday, with a 24-hour low piercing 2,587! All candlesticks have broken key levels.
💥 Liquidation data is shocking:
In the past 24 hours, total network liquidations reached 555 million USD, with long positions liquidated at 487 million, accounting for 87.7%! ETH single-coin liquidations hit as high as 175 million USD, with bulls making up 94%. BTC plunged from 85,317 to 83,551 within 20 minutes, long liquidations at 83 million, which is 10 times the shorts. The market violently cleansed leverage.
Three main culprits for the crash:
First, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.31%, draining risk assets; second, ETH spot ETF saw net outflows for 5 consecutive days totaling 206 million USD, institutions are withdrawing; third, a surge in validator exits increased selling pressure concerns.
My actions:
This morning I decisively closed my ETH short grid to lock in profits. $BTC and $SOL short grids are still running within their ranges.
Also tried a small altcoin position but got stopped out with a small loss.
This drop confirmed a golden rule: don’t catch a falling knife after a breakdown, let the bullet fly for a while.
Key operation:
If $ETH continues to trade below 2,630, the next target is 2,550; if it breaks below that, it could extend to 2,400-2,350. On the upside, 2,720 is the bears’ defense line.
Are you currently buried in longs or feasting on shorts? SAND Watch: The latest price is 0.07267, close to the 0.07200 support. Whether the rise can hold here still needs to be tested.
The last complete 4-hour volume ratio was 2.38, with both high and low points rising synchronously. This rise is accompanied by increased trading volume, so there is no direct basis to be bearish.
MACD is still bearish, but the histogram is rising, indicating weakening bearish momentum. This is not enough to confirm a bullish continuation yet.
Only if it continuously holds above 0.08074 and subsequent complete cycle volumes continue to expand will it turn bullish. If it continuously breaks below 0.07200 and fails to rebound back above, it will turn bearish. The current upward structure is invalid.Sold part of my ETH a couple of days ago! Although my target was to sell some at $3000, with the National Day holiday almost over and unable to break through 2860, I felt a pullback was coming, so I sold some to reduce leverage! I went all in on ETH in 2023 aiming to sell everything at 4500 in 2025, then sold low at 3600 and it dropped to 1500. The leverage was one times the principal! Currently, I've completely deleveraged without losing any chips! Now I can focus on holding ETH until it reaches $10,000! If there’s a chance in the future, I’ll continue to go long with coin-based leverage at low prices!
I will definitely achieve great results! $ETH #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ #美债长端收益率再创新高，30年期逼近5.7% You spotted the key difference between this drop and normal washouts — OI behavior. *Normal drop:* big candle + OI drops hard = longs liquidated, like today ETH OI -72.6M (-4.47%) on OKX, total 370M in 1 hour, 2695->2587. *This BTC drop:* broke support lingering for half month (your 838-870 box since Sep 23) with high volume, but OI still 29.93k, not dropping much = new shorts entering during breakdown, not just longs exiting. That means: - Sideways past 2 days OI rising = shorts building - Brea$ACE has fallen to the point where the most common illusion is: the more it falls, the cheaper it must be.
I break it down into two scenarios: A, breaking through 0.2001, confirming a short-term structure; B, falling below 0.1656, invalidating the original judgment, with the next observation point shifting to 0.1656.
Current price is 0.1713, down 11.61% in 24 hours; weak on 1-hour and 4-hour charts, with volume about 1.88 times the average of the last 20 bars.
No preset answers, just watching which condition happens first. Do you think scenario A or B is more likely to occur first?
The above is market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bull.$WLD This 50x short position was opened at 0.5651, currently at 0.5242, with an unrealized profit of 361.88% (profit amount +0.04). The profit figures remain high, but the market is in a sideways consolidation phase after bottoming at 0.5100 with reduced volume and a weak rebound, without further downward pressure. The overall position profit is very substantial; in a streak of wins plus high unrealized gains, the biggest risk is not market volatility but the greed in the mindset wanting to "hold on longer to bet on new lows."
Market structure remains unchanged: oscillating downtrend at a high of 0.5904, a large bearish candle broke through the 0.54 level to test 0.5100, currently quoted at 0.5244 (24h down 5.41%). Volume is 115 million, liquidity 220 million tokens; after volume expansion at the bottom, there is now a reduced volume small K-line rebound, with weak support. As the No.36 high-elasticity AI sector asset, it is very sensitive to Bitcoin resonance or sector news, easily triggering instant spikes. With 50x leverage, a rapid 3% rebound (up to 0.54) can wipe out most of the 360% profit; sharp drops followed by sharp rebounds are ironclad rules.$BTC Folks, something's off with this market. The 84009.6 level is purely a technical drop, no news at all, damn it, clearly the dog whales are shaking out the market.
Look at the candlesticks, volume doesn't follow at all, MACD shows bearish divergence, this pump is just a trap for retail investors. Take my advice, don't rush to bottom-fish, the smart money is already running.
In terms of trading, you can lightly short near 84009.6, set stop loss at 84700, target first at 82500, if broken then look at 81200. Keep your position under 20%, the dog whales might spike the price anytime here.
For those wanting to follow, just click the token market card below to check the order book yourself, know what you're doing before making a move.
The above is just my personal opinion, not investment advice. Contract leverage carries very high risk, please control your position size yourself, profits and losses are your own responsibility.
👇👇👇$CP
A new low of 0.01093 was recorded after 37 days since launch, and the coin is still being dumped by the team and early holders.
I expect it to be delisted soon from exchanges due to lack of liquidity and absence of investors Liquidation information on October 7, 2026
Long positions liquidated nearly 480 million USD
Short positions liquidated 66.16 million USD
This drop really caught everyone off guard
Everyone was unanimously bullish on $BTC to reach 88000
$ETH to reach 2800, but suddenly it crashed
But I was quite lucky
Last night I saw the big boss suddenly open 150 $BTC short positions
I quickly closed my previous long positions and opened shorts
This wave let me profit again 😆
This crash was mainly caused by continuous outflows from the ETH ETF funds
Originally, there wouldn't have been such a large swing, possibly due to a long squeeze
A chain reaction of operations caused ETH to drop this much Your report is already saying it — and it's accurate. *Is it bullish? No.* *Is major crash coming? Not crash, but correction continues.* Your own numbers: - $2612, -3.40%, range 2591-2723 — today's 370M liquidation hour (2695->2587) is inside that range - 1H near lower Bollinger, MACD green expanding = bearish momentum releasing, not finished - 4H broke short-term MAs, bullish structure damaged = your EMA5/10/20 pierced by one candle earlier - Daily pullback with volume up = BTC -2.21% vs ETH -3That 2521 liquidation is the level every short is staring at now after today's 370M wipeout. Let's look at what you posted: *Maji's trap:* - 38k ETH contracts, $100M, entry 2682, now 2610 = -68% unrealized - 20x leverage, margin usage 98.3%, no withdrawable = zero buffer - Liquidation 2521 = only $89 away from current 2610. That's 3.4% more drop. - Lost 4.78M today, cumulative -28.51M, win rate 64% but small wins / big holds to liquidation = classic. *Will whales let him off?* Whales don't need $ADA This 50x short position was opened at 0.2753, now at 0.2581, with an unrealized profit of 312.38% (profit amount +0.17). Seeing the green numbers, I haven't dared to release it. The overall position profit is very substantial, but the mindset is tighter than when opening the first position during this winning streak—the bigger the profit, the more afraid it will be taken away by the market in one shot; the smoother it goes, the more afraid of drifting.
The market is showing a breakdown and sharp drop: the 0.2825 peak failed to hold, followed by a large bearish candle smashing through the platform, bottoming at 0.2478, currently quoted at 0.2580 (24h down 4.93%). Volume is 142 million, with 550 million tokens traded, showing obvious volume expansion at the bottom during the drop. As a veteran Layer 1&2 project ranked No.37, although the market is hanging on the positive narrative of "launching the programmable token standard CIP-0113," capital votes with its feet, and the market is more honest than any news; no support means it's hollow. Currently, there is a slight rebound from 0.2478, which is a weak bounce.
What I fear most now is a violent rebound after the old coin's negative news is fully absorbed. The current price 0.258 is close to the previous low of 0.2478, with all short positions below in profit. With 50x leverage, a rapid 3% spike (up to around 0.266) can drain most of the 300%+ profit. Sharp drops followed by fierce rebounds are ironclad rules; old coins have large market caps but are deeply influenced by the overall market resonance, making sudden spikes very likely.When I first started trading contracts, I loved finding coins with negative funding rates: shorts pay longs, and you can even earn interest while waiting for a rebound, like getting something for free. Later I realized that the funding rate is a quote of crowding, not a benefit.
Let's do the math first: funding rate -0.05%, settled every 8 hours, only 0.15% per day, while small coins fluctuate 5%–10% daily. The money earned in a day isn't enough to cover a fraction of one fluctuation.
I once went long on a crashing small coin, the funding rate turned deeply negative, the group was shouting short squeeze, I collected three rounds of fees worth tens of USDT, but the coin price dropped another 30%—the profit was pocket change, the loss was principal.
There are two types of negative funding rates: panic oversell, where longs get liquidated and price breaks below spot, possibly fueling a rebound; and trend shorts paying to hold positions, where floating profits cover costs for a long time, which is proof the trend is still alive.
You can't distinguish this by numbers alone, only by looking at open interest (OI): negative funding rate + rising OI means shorts are still adding positions; OI falling means the fuel is running out. A short squeeze requires not "more shorts," but "shorts forced to close positions."
More painfully: when you pay the funding rate, you yourself are the fuel—people coming for interest have heavy positions and weak logic, and are the first to be liquidated after a 10% drop.
Negative funding rate only indicates perpetual swaps are weaker than spot, it doesn't mean selling pressure is over. It's just a thermometer: if you already plan to go long, it makes it cheaper;
But you can't reverse it and fabricate an opening reason just for a bit of interest, that's like picking up coins in front of a steamroller. #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 BTC Current Analysis
• Current Status: Short-term weakening, 84000 has shifted from support to resistance, intraday has already pierced the 83800 short-term defense level, bears have short-term advantage
• Resistance
First Resistance: 84700-84900 (exactly your 84800 short position entry zone, this is a trapped + selling pressure zone)
Second Resistance: 86500-86700 (24h high, the threshold for bulls to regain control)
• Support
First Support: 83000-83200 (key psychological + liquidity support, if held, 83-86 range consolidation is possible)
Strong Support: 80000 (once 83000 is effectively broken, leveraged positions may cascade liquidations straight to here)
• Candlesticks/Indicators: 4H MACD death cross downward, volume slightly increased; SMA20 moving average has turned down to suppress price; currently a high-level pullback and range probe pattern, no clear bottoming candlestick signal yet
Leverage & Capital
Macro Drivers (current main variables)
• Tonight's focus: Fed September meeting minutes, market closely watching for hawkish tone; US Treasury yields and dollar strength are among the main recent factors suppressing crypto prices
• Geopolitics: Middle East tensions pushing up oil prices, risk appetite shrinking, risk assets generally under pressure
• Big Picture: Market is still playing the "Fed rate cut timing" game, without clear positive signals, BTC is unlikely to have a strong one-sided rally, more prone to range-bound oscillation + sharp sell-offs for shakeouts $SPCX
[Connection Department Update]
FCC Approves SpaceX for 15,000 Second-Generation Starlink Direct-Connect Constellation
On October 6, 2026, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) authorized SpaceX to deploy and operate up to 15,000 low Earth orbit satellites forming a direct-to-device (D2D) system.
Regarding the system, the constellation consists of up to 15,000 Starlink second-generation DTC satellites (based on the Starlink V3 platform). The total number exceeds 15,000, but the total satellite count does not exceed 15,000, and not all orbital planes will be fully occupied. Orbital altitude tolerance is ±100 km, and inclination tolerance is ±2 degrees.
The platform design life is 5 to 7 years, with orbit raising from an initial deployment altitude of about 300 km. The platform is equipped with a propulsion system for orbit raising, station-keeping, collision avoidance maneuvers, and deorbiting; the propulsion system relies on solar panels and batteries for power, uses three-axis stabilization control, and must maintain communication with the ground. Satellites reserve about 5% fuel for deorbiting to approximately 300 km before reentry.
The system uses onboard phased array beamforming and digital processing, features optical inter-satellite links, and can share gateways and backhaul infrastructure with SpaceX’s Gen1 and Gen2 systems.You nailed it — this isn't a trend change yet, it's still the same 838-870 box you've been watching since Sep 23. Today's "big drop" everyone panicked about: - 370M liquidated in 1 hour, ETH 2695 -> 2587, SOL 124.96 -> 117.68 - But BTC? Still 83,800. Still inside your 838-870 range. *Your east wind vs west wind is perfect:* - Bears clamoring after -2.21%, bulls will clamor if it bounces to 860. Both wrong in oscillation. - Failed to break 867 last night = no breakout, just continues to oscillateSOL Conference Market Brief
The conference is packed with enthusiasm, but $SOL is dragged down by the overall market pullback 😂
However, short-term fluctuations cannot overshadow the fact that the fundamentals continue to strengthen.
📌 Solana's TVL has risen to about $6.76 billion, and on-chain tokenized stock trading volume exceeded $4.4 billion in September; institutional asset onboarding is becoming the new growth driver.
More notably, the Solana Foundation has launched an open-source DvP atomic settlement standard, receiving input from JPMorgan and completing external audits. Compared to pure ETF capital flows, this is closer to the long-term narrative of traditional financial infrastructure integrating with blockchain.
Technically, $SOL still holds the mid-term trend, with MA30 around 112.2 and RSI not yet in extreme territory.
Short-term outlook is consolidation, fundamentals point to growth—don’t be scared off by a single large bearish candle.
#SOL #Solana #TokenizedStocks #RWA #Cryptocurrency
Strengthen key short-term price levels
Compress the intro to enhance impact
Add risk warnings for more robustness Account Position Divergence Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$NMR top accounts lean bearish, position size leans bullish: account long-short ratio 0.85, position ratio 1.12; the difference in proportion between the two types of long positions expanded by 2.04 percentage points. More bearish accounts, but position size is still dominated by bulls, the two indicators have not yet aligned.#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 Although every trade has been profitable these days, the gains per trade have been small. If I had held $HYPE since yesterday, I could have made an extra 200u. Every time, the buy positions were very accurate, but the sell positions are so hard to time correctly. Is there any way to solve this? $ZEC's price retraced by 20% last week, and it has risen a bit this week, which is normal price fluctuation. If the trend is downward, without encountering a black swan event, it’s impossBrother, two truckloads of cement then you open chart and see SOL short paid — that's the best feeling! Sweat money back in one drop. Enjoy that cigarette 🚬 You did everything right: *You caught it:* - 124.96 -> breaking MA5/MA10 -> 117.68 MA20 support, KDJ death cross. You called it, held it, while others chased long on "SOL king" narrative. - Today SOL -2.2% after ETH -3.6%, BTC -2.21%. Your short feast day. *And your advice is golden for everyone listening:* "SOL still king long run +51% in Now you're seeing the other side of the same coin you shorted this morning — and that's smart. This morning: 370M liquidated in 1 hour, ETH 2695 -> 2587, box broken, support worthless. Now: you're talking solo before chorus, capital shifting from BTC certainty to medium elasticity. Both can be true in same day: *Your solo theory fits today's action:* - BTC at 83,800 doesn't need to lead, just needs to hold 83k quietly so vol stays controllable. It just did that after liquidation — stabilized. - An unapproved spot Zcash ETF is more than a new wrapper: it tests whether demand for privacy-focused exposure can be sustained in a regulated venue.
WINK's proposal arrives as Grayscale's ZCSH logged its first weekly net outflow since launch, about $93.56 million. That contrast makes distribution, not just product count, the central question.
#WinklevossZcashETF The previous surge to 0.3597 couldn't hold, and the following few 4-hour candlesticks have completely broken the rhythm. $JUP opened a short near 0.3481, and now the price has returned to 0.3306, with an unrealized profit of about 2.51 times. This gain comes from the pullback after the failed rally.
This time, the lowest drop hit 0.3226, with volume mainly concentrated during the sharp decline phase. The subsequent rebound is noticeably weaker. On the 1-hour chart, the price is still below the short- and mid-term moving averages, and the MACD remains below the zero line, indicating that although there is some recovery, the bearish structure has not been reversed yet.
However, 0.3226 has already seen a quick absorption once, so chasing shorts further down now is not very cost-effective. If the price near 0.3316 fails to recover, there is still a possibility of testing lower levels again. If it can truly stand back above around 0.335, I would prefer to protect the profits from this bearish run first rather than stubbornly fighting the pullback. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ That 83k box you were asking about since morning — it's gone. 370M in 1 hour is how a half-month range ends. Violently. Your numbers tell the whole story: *Liquidation cascade:* - Total 370M, ETH 136M > BTC 102M — exactly what you said: ETH falls harder, institutions out first - OKX ETH OI -72.6M (-4.47%) in minutes — not people closing, forced liquidation - 2695 -> 2587 in 20 min = 108 points, 5-min volume 40k -> 3.45M contracts. That's 86x volume spike. No support survives that. *Why "support Bitcoin only fluctuated by a few points, yet the market saw billions of dollars worth of liquidations.
It seems there are still too many high-leverage players now, going all-in with 50x or 100x leverage, and even a slight movement can get them liquidated by the market.
At this stage, more patience is needed, cherishing every opportunity brought by each pullback.
After the long leverage is released, the market gradually accumulates short positions.
Once the sentiment and leverage reshuffle is complete, the next upward trend might not be far away.
Less chasing highs and selling lows, more patience in waiting. Opportunities always favor those who manage their positions well. $BTC Single-day surge of 43.17% reaching $17.18, NMR leads OKX altcoin movers
NMR on OKX surged 43.17% in a single day, hitting $17.18, with spot trading volume spiking to 44.47 million USDT. Those holding positions are watching if $17.18 can hold as support. Last night, a Korean exchange listed NMR trading pairs in KRW and USDT, triggering a strong influx of buy orders around the open. This project is a veteran AI quant platform that hosts modeling competitions for data scientists to trade. With the new trading pairs launched, on-exchange funds have heavily pushed it up.
I checked OKX's afternoon market. NMR perpetual funding rate is stuck at -0.0049%, meaning shorts are paying interest to longs. OKX's total perpetual open interest stands at $8.26 billion, with BTC accounting for $3.142 billion, altcoins holding $3.169 billion, and the altcoin-to-BTC open interest ratio steady at 1.008. The fear and greed index is at 71, indicating greed. The total market cap across the network is $2.84 trillion, and overall leverage on the exchange hasn't spiked.
I personally added NMR-USDT perpetual to my watchlist this afternoon. Chasing the price immediately after a 43.17% single-day surge isn't wise. I'll first see if the bulls can hold after turnover at $17.18. Meanwhile, I keep my spot holdings on OKX in simple earn to collect flexible income.BTC Institutional Accumulation Watch
📌 With the FOMC meeting minutes approaching, BTC institutional fund movements deserve closer attention
Robinhood disclosed approximately $25 million in $BTC purchases, resembling enterprise-level asset allocation rather than retail short-term speculation.
Combined with three consecutive weeks of net inflows into BTC ETFs and weakening whale sell pressure, institutional funds are signaling a cautiously optimistic stance.
In the short term, BTC has retraced about 2%, with market sentiment remaining cautious, but the mid-term outlook remains intact.
My approach: avoid chasing news-driven rallies, watch for support on pullbacks; consider phased entries with volume-price confirmation.
What truly matters is not a single bearish candle, but whether the chips continue to concentrate in institutions.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC #FOMC #ETF
Revise core data to a more cautious tone
Enhance the headline and introduction for stronger appeal
Compress the entire text into a shorter, faster update Your three reasons are exactly what's driving this daylight plunge — and your 2707 short held 3 days is perfectly positioned for it. Let's break it: *1. ETH ETF 5-day outflow $200M+* You're right, institutions are pulling, not retail buying. That's the real tell. BTC ETF had 3 weeks inflow before, but ETH is lagging — that divergence always ends with ETH catching down. *2. Validator queue 166k -> 851k* This is the killer you spotted. 5x surge since Sep end = ∼27k ETH unlocked daily pressure soonWhen I posted yesterday, the $BTC daily candle hadn't closed yet, but it was performing well intraday.
However, it dropped sharply in the last hour, and the daily candle didn't close as a solid bullish candle engulfing the previous day's upper shadow, so the premise doesn't hold, and the subsequent conclusions are invalid.
But currently, it doesn't seem to be a big issue; I went long on $ETH.
The hourly chart shows a volume spike with a wick on the weekly Ma7. I was about to go to the forum to rant, but then I saw the floating profit and decided against it. The market daddy is always right. Last night before bed, I casually checked $BOME, and the more I looked, the more it seemed like a bull trap. The rebounds were weak and soft, volume didn’t keep up, and there were layers of resistance above.
Taking profits early feels good, brothers. I shorted in at 0.0010299 and held all the way down to 0.0009719. A +112.24% profit is already reflected on the board. This gain feels solid; those hours of holding weren’t wasted.
Don’t be greedy for the last bit; take 80% off first. Move the stop loss for the remaining 20% to the cost price. If it keeps dropping, let the profit run; if it bounces back, it won’t hurt much. Pocket the big chunk first, leave the rest to the market.
Panic comes from having no plan; losses come from overthinking. Don’t lose patience in the choppy market and then try to regain dignity in a one-sided move.
For friends who haven’t gotten in yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush. There will be more opportunities later. Wait for the next shot, wait for the new structure to appear, then decide. Missing this wave isn’t shameful; chasing recklessly is.
$SNDK $SOL $BTC and $ETH declined during the day, releasing short-term selling pressure. Market sentiment in the evening is likely to complete concentrated turnover at low levels, and a recovery rebound cannot be ruled out. However, the certainty of a direct reversal and strong rally is currently insufficient.
$PONS initiated a rebound first, with a very prudent break-even stop loss set, allowing for both offense and defense. If the subsequent market is strong, profits can be gradually shifted to $BTC to amplify gains; if the rebound is weaker than expected, close the position at break-even to avoid any principal loss, maintaining a very steady operation rhythm.
#9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入
#OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 $BTC bears have basically caught the main downtrend this round, opening shorts around 86,290, with the price dropping to around 84,050, floating profits have nearly tripled at 2.6 times.
The key point is that it lingered around 85,500 for a long time before finally choosing to break down, plunging directly to 83,500 at the lowest.
This wave of selling was accompanied by obvious volume expansion, the 4-hour MACD green bars continue to enlarge, indicating that the large-scale bearish momentum has not been fully released yet.
However, on the 15-minute chart, there has already been a recovery from the low, after 83,500 it did not continue straight down, starting to consolidate around 84,000, showing a clear short-term breather.
At this position, I will no longer chase shorts. If the rebound cannot surpass 84,400—84,800, bears still have conditions for a second push lower.
Only if it can firmly hold above 84,800 does it indicate that this sharp drop is entering a deeper correction. It's more important to protect existing profits than to stubbornly bet on new lows. $ETH $ZEC #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ SEC Approves 3x Bitcoin ETF! Is Wall Street About to Play Even More Exciting?
Buying BTC is no longer enough; now 3x leveraged ETFs are here too!
On October 2nd, the U.S. SEC approved a rule change for the Cboe BZX Exchange, clearing listing rule obstacles for six leveraged products under Volatility Shares, including 3x Bitcoin ETFs and 3x Ethereum ETFs.
What are the highlights this time?
👉 3x Bitcoin ETF: aims to track 3 times the daily performance of Bitcoin futures
👉 3x Ethereum ETF: also targets 3 times the daily performance
👉 Additionally, there are 3x products for gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas
👉 The SEC approval order has not yet specified the exact listing date.
But here is a key detail:
3x does not mean the long-term returns will necessarily be 3 times BTC’s gains.
These products pursue daily leveraged performance and are affected by daily resets, market volatility, and futures performance. The longer you hold, the more actual returns may deviate from a simple 3x calculation.
So, what’s really worth paying attention to this time:
The boundaries of U.S. crypto financial products are still expanding, and traditional financial markets are offering more ways to participate in crypto assets.
However, the more complex the product, the more important risk management becomes. Understanding the rules before deciding to participate is more important than just focusing on “3x returns.”【On-Chain Trading Update｜NEAR】
Monitored address 0x0c1f opened a short position:
▪ Execution price: $5.18
▪ Transaction amount this time: $224,504.05
▪ Leverage: 9x
Note: This address has earned over $292,000 in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +73.85% Rejected at high levels, major coins weaken synchronously in the short term
BTC once touched near 86,300 but failed to hold, then retreated below 86,000; ETH failed to break 2,717 and subsequently lost 2,705; SOL pulled back after reaching 121.38, breaking below 120.77; XRP hit 1.517 unsuccessfully and also failed to hold 1.505. The four major coins were almost simultaneously pushed down by selling pressure at high levels, indicating short-term buying interest is not strong.
Technical signals are more direct: BTC, ETH, and XRP have fallen below their 15-minute moving average bands, signaling a short-term shift in strength; SOL appears more resistant but is also under pressure after losing a key level. The current dilemma is repeated rejection at resistance above and consecutive losses of support below. If the rebound cannot quickly recover, the market is likely to continue downward seeking support, increasing the risk of a deep correction.
On the macro side, the FOMC minutes are about to be released, and rate hike discussions may still disturb sentiment; BTC whale selling pressure has weakened, and ETF inflows have continued for three consecutive weeks, providing some buffer but not yet reversing the short-term weakness. The focus going forward is on two points: whether support retests are effective and whether a breakdown accelerates.
For market observation only, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 $ETH touched 2800 but was immediately pushed back, putting the bulls in a very awkward position.
This rally from 2400 did see capital entering the market.
However, the selling pressure around 2800 is too heavy; multiple attempts to break through failed, and now it has retraced back to around 2600 with increased volume on the decline.
The futures market remains very active.
ETH futures have a 24-hour trading volume of $30.2 billion, while spot is only $2.2 billion; open interest stays at $34.1 billion, and leverage remains in the market.
ETF funds are also showing divergence.
There were consecutive large net inflows in late September, with a single-day peak of $270 million;
starting October, continuous outflows occurred, with $50.8 million flowing out on the 5th alone.
The core issue is straightforward: after the price rally, leverage has not retreated, and spot relay funds cannot keep up.
A single sharp pullback does not mean an immediate bearish reversal.
But the short-term logic has changed; no longer betting on a push to 2800, the focus is on whether 2600 can hold.
If 2600 holds, bulls still have a chance to fight for 2800 again.
Once 2600 breaks, this round of the uptrend will need to be reconsidered.
Currently, the market is oscillating and pulling; do not load up heavily betting on direction prematurely, wait for clear support signals before taking action. $BTC $ZEC #美债长端收益率再创新高，30年期逼近5.7% Short position on BTC is not yet at the take-profit moment, continue shorting $BTC on the rebound
Technical aspect: Resistance band pressure, false breakout structure
84888 is exactly stuck at the upper edge of the key resistance band from 84500 to 85000. Previously, BTC dipped to 84900 at midnight and was quickly pulled back, indicating repeated testing between bulls and bears in this range, but it never effectively held above it. On Binance spot order book, a large number of sell orders have accumulated in the 85000 to 85500 range, doubling since September 24, with the price approaching the lower limit of the range but failing to break through. Placing a short at 84888 means entering below the densest sell order area, with clear resistance above and a well-defined stop loss.
News aspect: Fed minutes imminent, hawkish risk remains
At 2 AM tonight, the Federal Reserve will release the September meeting minutes. Kansas City Fed President Esther George clearly stated yesterday that inflation is trending upward again, and if no further action is taken, the Fed's credibility is at risk.
Capital aspect: ETF inflows marginally weakening, profit-taking increasing
Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $119 million yesterday, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing $122 million. However, compared to the peak of nearly $1 billion in a single day on September 21, the inflow scale has clearly slowed down.
Trading strategy
Place a short near 84888, with stop loss above 85500. If volume-driven stabilization above 85500 occurs, it indicates the short logic has failed and exit unconditionally. The first target is 83000; if broken, look at 82000 to 81500. Position size controlled between 10% to 15%, leverage not exceeding 3x.Family, this ETH $ETH plunge is so satisfying! Yesterday's rebound had no volume, I shorted directly at 2675.12 with a car, logic: the main force pulled the price up but no funds followed, pure bull trap. Now at 2615.43, holding a 223.13% floating profit!
Trading looks at the essence: volume-price divergence plus moving average suppression, macro environment also doesn't support risk assets. Those with positions reduce 70% of holdings, keep the rest as a base with stop-loss to bet on a deep drop. If no position, don't chase, wait to see if the 2600 support breaks.
Short term support at 2580, beware of spikes. Don't be greedy with high leverage, making profit is winning. Will notify if there are positions later, no plan don't act recklessly, preserving principal is first. #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ $ZEC $BTC This market is absolutely insane! As soon as the macro data came out, employment was terrible. I thought I could bottom-fish for a rebound, but as soon as the inflation data was released, it buried me.
My NEAR short position is down over 400%, and my BTC long position is floating a loss of 1100U. Playing with 50x leverage on the whole account is a real heart-stopper, and now my heart is about to stop. The Fed minutes haven't even been released yet, but the market has already "minuted" me.
Who says bad news is good news? Clearly, "bad news = liquidation notice"! Now I can only pray that Daly shows mercy at 2 AM, or else my account will look even worse than the nonfarm payroll data.
#9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 $BTC #BTC whale sell pressure weakens, ETF funds have net inflows for three consecutive weeks
"5U Challenge to 67000U · Day 13 Report"
Current assets: To be filled U
Starting principal: 5U + recharge 100U = 105U
Gains from activity: +19U
Cumulative loss: -950U
Still short of the 67000U target by:
Today's operation:
Day 13, first to correct a sentence from yesterday.
Said "breakeven" yesterday, which was wrong. Checked the overall ledger, including previous losses, actually still down 950U.
The loss is not from this 5U challenge round, but accumulated before. But the ledger is the ledger, must acknowledge it.
Opened a position today, small profit, no greed. But seeing that negative number in the ledger still feels frustrating.
950U is not a small number. With the current position size, grinding one trade at a time, don’t know how long it will take.
But rushing is useless. Money lost won’t come back just because you’re anxious.
Today's review:
• Saying breakeven yesterday was only looking at this round’s ledger, not the total ledger
• Total ledger still down 950U, pressure bigger than imagined
• Small profit today, but just a drop in the bucket
• Rushing is useless, can only take it one trade at a time
Conclusion: The 950U hole can’t be filled in one day.
What can be done is to avoid digging new holes.Conclusion first: $NMR retraced from 17.2 down to 15.1, this is a low-volume shakeout, not a sell-off — volume exploded on the push up, then shrank to 37% of that peak volume on the retracement, textbook behavior.
Data: On 10-06 at 12:00, the 4H candle still had a sideways volume of 150,000 contracts; at 16:00 suddenly 9.83 million contracts pushed the price from 12.09 to 16.17; at 20:00 volume surged again to 39.73 million contracts pushing price to 17.2. This morning at 00:00 the retracement $TRUMP 50x short opened at $2.042, now around $2.008 with strong floating profit. The setup was based on repeated rejection at $2.042, fading volume, and a clear bearish reversal signal. Instead of guessing the top, the entry came after confirmation. Defense: $2.03 Stop: $2.06 Key level: $1.95 For now, no rush—let the trade develop and protect the position if momentum shifts. $ZEC $SOL #OKXNOW:24x7MarketEra #FedSeptemberMinutes #BTCWhalePressureEases #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？
Let me share my view with you all: I lean "hawkish" on the September FOMC minutes tonight, and I will first guard against a short-term pullback in $BTC and $ETH.
What really matters this time is not whether there will be a rate hike tonight—the September hike has already been implemented. The minutes truly affect how many within the Fed support further tightening and how serious the inflation concerns are.
If the minutes repeatedly emphasize that inflation remains stubborn, the room for rate cuts is limited, and further hikes may still be possible, the market will definitely have to reprice a rate hike for October.
Currently, the market's expectation for a rate hike in October is not high, so I actually think the biggest risk tonight is a hawkish surprise.
Once U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar surge first, high-volatility assets like $BTC and $ETH are very likely to take a hit initially.
My strategy is simple:
Don't preemptively bet on data, don't chase longs.
If the minutes are hawkish, any rebound is an opportunity to watch for shorts;
If the minutes are dovish, first see if $BTC can reclaim key resistance before considering going long.
Tonight, I prefer to wait for the market to provide the answer rather than guessing it myself.
Do you think this round of minutes will be hawkish or dovish?Some people see that my $BTC and $ETH short positions have been hanging for a week without closing and think I'm stubbornly holding on. I'm not. I can hold because three macro signals this week all favor the bears: the dollar index has touched the year's high, the 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to the highest since 2002, and oil prices are sticking at high levels. Together, these three indicate liquidity is tightening and risk assets are being drained. The crypto prices have been sideways$BTC is starting to test patience again; the real direction might come tonight.
Currently, $BTC is fluctuating around $84,000, having dropped from $86,600 down to about $83,700 during the day, indicating that selling pressure above is still quite evident.
For the short term, focus on two levels: whether $83,700 can hold will determine if the pullback continues; if it can climb back above $85,600, then testing $86,600 again becomes interesting.
My approach is simple: don’t chase the middle range, wait for key levels to provide answers. If $83,700 holds, expect a rebound; if it breaks, watch around $82,000 first. The more the market tests patience, the more patience is needed.Don't underestimate this bull market.
I prefer to understand it as: the momentum from the previous bull market that wasn't fully realized has been reshuffled and accumulated again in this round.
The last bull market experienced AI draining value and the 1011 chain liquidation cascade; many funds and narratives hadn't had the chance to fully play out before the market was abruptly interrupted.
But this time, the script might be reversing.
AI is no longer a value drainer but could become a booster for Crypto.
The stronger AI gets, the stronger humanity's demand for privacy, asset autonomy, and data security becomes; privacy coins might become a "firewall" in the future financial system.
AI Agents are spawning new financial forms, and this open, automated, borderless financial system naturally aligns with blockchain.
Moreover, with RWA becoming clearer, borderless pricing and on-chain settlement are starting to truly leverage blockchain's advantages.
So the momentum this round is not a single narrative but a multiple overlay of AI × Crypto × Privacy × RWA.
What truly deserves attention are projects at the intersection of these era-defining waves:
AI × Crypto, privacy infrastructure, and RWA infrastructure with real business and performance support.
This time, it’s hard to expect a "one-size-fits-all" scenario.
My strategy is simple:
I don’t chase all assets, only hold those that genuinely benefit from the era’s trends and realize their vision gradually.
Currently, I focus on:
$ZEC + $NEAR
The logic is simple, and holding is simple too. 💎 $ETH — NOON WATCH
ETH ~$2.61K and the $2.6K zone is now the key battle.
🎯 $2.65K reclaim → $2.70K → $2.80K
⚠️ $2.60K lose → $2.50K → $2.43K
ETF pressure is real: U.S. spot ETH ETFs saw$201.9M outflows on Oct. 6, extending the losing streak to six sessions.
No need to chase.
$2.65K reclaim or $2.60K breakdown? 👀