Orbit Post Sitemap
During Bitcoin's drop from $87,000, long-term holders have hardly deposited coins to exchanges
On-chain data shows that during the correction from the $87,000 peak, the amount of coins deposited by long-term holders to exchanges was extremely low.
Coins must first be transferred to exchanges to trigger selling. Old coins are almost never moved to platforms, indicating that this round of decline is not due to large-scale selling by long-term whales; selling pressure mainly comes from short-term traders.
My view: This is a very important positive on-chain signal. The biggest fear in a bull market phase is when long-term holders collectively transfer coins to dump, which often signals a trend top. This time, long-term holders chose to lock their coins in place during the pullback, indicating that large funds do not see the current decline as an exit opportunity, and the market's underlying coin structure remains intact.
But it should be viewed rationally: long-term holders not selling ≠ immediate bottoming or rebound. Short-term bearish factors still exist, with ETF outflows and rising US Treasury yields continuing to suppress the market. Currently, it is a short-term capital game, with old coins lying flat and watching.
Trading approach: Do not heavily go long based solely on this one on-chain data point. Strictly control leverage in contracts and focus on key support levels. As long as long-term holders continue to maintain low deposit levels, the probability of a deep drop decreases; once a large amount of old coins are transferred to exchanges later, immediate caution is required.Celsius founder banned for life from the crypto space and must pay an additional $35 million
Brothers, Alex Mashinsky, the founder of Celsius, is completely done for.
The New York Attorney General announced a settlement yesterday: Mashinsky is banned for life from securities, futures, and the crypto space, and must pay up to $35 million — $25 million depends on whether he pays the $10 million federal fines and forfeitures, and the remaining $10 million depends on whether he serves a full 12-year prison sentence honestly.
He is currently serving 12 years in federal prison, having pleaded guilty to securities fraud. Back then, he packaged Celsius as "safer than banks," tricking hundreds of thousands of people into depositing funds, but he used customers' money to gamble on high-risk strategies and hid the losses. In June 2022, Celsius froze withdrawals and declared bankruptcy a month later, causing many people's money to vanish — fortunately, bankruptcy liquidation has returned $3.4 billion so far.
Interestingly, this is already his third "lifetime ban" this year: FTC in April, CFTC in June, and now New York State. Three strikes, you're out, it's definite.
When Celsius collapsed back then, was your money in it? Let's discuss in the comments.
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile, please control your position size. For reference only, not investment advice.
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #Celsius ✏️ $BTC
After reaching the key support at $81,000, we now got a local bounce with price returning around $82,500
For now I'd best wait for today's daily candle close, see how it turns out and after that I'll put together a new market setup, since locally they could manipulate in both directions right now to collect certain liquidity clusters, so it's best to wait a bit now and not rush into new positions220 million long positions vanished into thin air, who did BTC's late-night "fake rebound" harvest?
In the past 12 hours, the BTC market has been a bloodbath. Long positions across the network liquidated $220 million, while short positions only $27.486 million, a huge disparity. Bears barely got hurt, but bulls were collectively liquidated.
Last night's market was irrational. A sharp dump pushed the low to 80351. The downtrend paused this morning, rebounding to 81769.6, seemingly stabilizing. But after I bought in at 82000, BTC briefly surged to 82600, and at that moment I really thought I bottomed out successfully. What happened next? The market reversed and continued to drop, breaking below 80400 with new lows. A large number of long positions were swept, many directly liquidated.
This round of bull liquidation was much harsher than a normal correction. Why is BTC falling while ETFs are still seeing inflows? Because spot inflows are slow money, while futures leverage is fast money. The FOMC minutes show most officials favor another rate hike; under macro pressure, risky assets first kill high leverage. Few short liquidations indicate bears control the pace, bulls became prey.
The crypto market shakeout is this brutal: it looks like a rebound, then suddenly continues to crash. What you think is the bottom might just be the starting point for the next round of liquidations.
Don't mistake a rebound for a reversal, don't bet your position on narratives. Surviving is more important than bottom fishing.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Don't let old impressions dictate today's orders
$JUP showed strength yesterday but dropped about 8.7% today. However, looking at a longer timeframe, it still rose 5.3% over the week and nearly 39% over the month. So, I'm not in a rush to overturn the "relative strength" judgment, but I also won't use yesterday's strength as a reason to buy today. The only thing to watch next is whether the pullback can be stopped. If the rebound is short-lived and the decline expands, expectations should be lowered. Judgments can change; there's no need to stick to being right and watch the price fall all the way down.
$WLD dropped nearly 19% over the week. At this point, it's better to let go of its previous rapid rise. "It rose fast before" doesn't answer what will drive the next rally. I'll watch more and act less, waiting for buying pressure to stabilize the price before discussing recovery potential. Past speed is not a guarantee of future returns.
$ZEC fell nearly 10% in 24 hours and about 6.4% over the month. Looking longer term, it hasn't escaped this round of weakness either. The most misleading thing right now is repeatedly using old highs as a benchmark. Being far from the high only shows it has fallen, not that it should rise back. I prefer to observe whether the lows can gradually rise, letting the price give its own answer.
In the market, memory is often more stubborn than candlesticks. But trading is not about saving face; it's about following changes. Yesterday's strength only explains yesterday; today's weakness doesn't mean permanent weakness. Let go of old impressions and accept new signals to make the next clear decision.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#Winklevoss旗下机构申请ZEC现货ETF $ETH Today's market: pulled back from a low of 2432 to above 2500, up 2.6% intraday. But in the past 24 hours, the market just went through a meat grinder typhoon: $1.193 billion liquidated across the network, 190,000 people liquidated. Long positions liquidated $1.055 billion, shorts only $138 million — the rain fell entirely on the bulls' field. The biggest strike was on ETH: $19.98 million.
A certain whale had 28,716 ETH long positions wiped out, losing $69.69 million. He didn't retreat, instead doubled down to 78,955 ETH, worth $196 million, with liquidation prices at 2299/2286, less than $200 away from the current price. No umbrella left, still standing in the storm.
ETF net outflows for 8 consecutive days, BlackRock withdrew $71.12 million yesterday, totaling over $640 million. Institutions are closing umbrellas, whales are getting drenched, retail investors are becoming floodwater. STRK
Current price 0.07423, slightly pulled back and consolidated after a surge.
Resistance level: 0.07732, support below at 0.07359
Strong support at 0.06143
News: Starknet plans to complete L1 transformation by 2027
to achieve quantum resistance.
The recent rally has been very strong
Currently in a pullback phase after the rise
Only by holding above 0.07732 is there a chance to continue surging
Be cautious of deeper correction if it breaks below 0.07359
$ZEC $ETH $SOL
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#跟着OKX打卡2049 $BTC dropped all the way from around 87,000 to just above 80,000. This round of correction has thoroughly taught those who chased the highs a lesson.
Looking at the market now, I'm actually not in a hurry to bottom-fish. The order at 80,200 was just a bit short of being filled, and later the lowest hit 80,351. It's a bit of a pity, but if you missed it, you missed it—there's no need to chase just because of this small regret.
Looking at the current market, BTC is tugging back and forth around 82,500, and the rebound hasn't yet reversed the previous downtrend. $ETH is moving sideways for now, SOL is weak, $ZEC is also retreating, but $MAGIC suddenly surged over 35%, indicating that not all coins are falling together; some localized funds are still looking for opportunities.
The most common mistake in this kind of market is seeing BTC rebound a few hundred points and thinking the bottom has been reached; or seeing a certain altcoin suddenly surge and being unable to resist chasing it.
My approach is simple: first see if BTC can hold steady around 80,000, then see if the rebound can retake key levels. If it holds, there's a chance for further recovery; if the rebound is weak and the lows are broken again, don't rush to declare the market bottomed.
After trading for a while, I realized that making a little less profit is really nothing; the worst is giving up control because you can't bear to miss out.
Brothers, do you think this BTC move is a normal correction after a sharp drop, or a mid-term rebound within a downtrend? The rebound came right after the dip: PIXEL leads with +4.7%, is this a last gasp or a second wave?
The previous message just mentioned the mini market closing, and twenty minutes later the rebound arrived, led again by the familiar face PIXEL, currently priced at 0.00743, up 4.66%, already touching the Bollinger upper band at 0.00758 and near the 24-hour high of 0.00762. Don’t rush to call it a second wave yet; there are a few details I’m skeptical about.
First, this round only PIXEL is charging ahead alone, while the previous leader MAGIC has dropped off the list. In a catch-up rally, usually the second leader bounces first while the leader lags behind, which often means funds that haven’t fully exited are trying to save themselves; second, the second tier generally only shows around 2% gains, and BTC is still stuck at 82,500, so breadth hasn’t expanded at all; third, its 24-hour trading volume has increased from 200,000 last night to 880,000 USD, volume has indeed returned several times over, but 880,000 is still thin liquidity for a coin with a market cap over 5 million, which doesn’t change its vulnerability to quick pumps and dumps.
Focus on one level: the 24-hour high of 0.00762 coincides exactly with the Bollinger upper band. Only a volume-backed hold above this level counts as a second wave; a low-volume failure to break through is just a descending consolidation rebound, with support below at 0.0070. My stance is clear: the first rebound after the dip should primarily be treated as a window to reduce positions, not a reason to chase higher. Wait for MAGIC to lead again or for BTC to move out of the 81,600 to 83,500 range before turning bullish. Not investment advice, DYOR
#PIXEL #GameFiSaw another coin with a short-term violent pump $MAGIC, surging 87% in 24 hours, climbing all the way from 0.06 in just a few days, doubling in gains.
Honestly, this coin belongs to the gaming sector, which I usually don't research or consider for spot positions. Purely from the market perspective, this rally is entirely a sentiment-driven move fueled by concentrated capital inflows. The short-term surge is too fast, with an overextended increase and no solid trend support.
Looking at the contract long-short data, currently short accounts make up as much as 71.11%, with the vast majority of the market shorting in line with the trend, betting on a pullback after the spike. This pattern is a classic extreme capital game: a large number of shorts are concentrated in ambush, so if the main force continues to push up, it can easily trigger a short squeeze; but conversely, after continuous violent gains, a huge amount of profit-taking positions have accumulated, and capital can cash out and flee at any time, making the correction risk very high.
Based on this logic: I tried to enter a short position, but unexpectedly got trapped right away 😂
Fortunately, the position size is small this time, so I can average down by adding on dips and slowly wait to break even.
Is there anyone more familiar with this coin? Not sure if after this volatility, I can smoothly make some money for a cup of milk tea and exit!
⚠️ The above is just my personal trading experience and does not constitute investment advice. Profit and loss are your own responsibility.Cryptocurrency Valuation: Without Cash Flow, How to Price? In short: Stocks can be calculated as profits, houses can be rented, Bitcoin has neither profit nor rent, yet the market prices it every day. How does it do that? You open a market software and see BTC has a price, ETH has market cap, and a certain DeFi token has FDV. But if you use traditional financial methods to trap it, you find you simply can't get it. Stocks have earnings per share, bonds have coupon rates, real estate has rental yields. What about cryptocurrencies? Bitcoin doesn't generate cash flow, Ethereum doesn't pay dividends, and most tokens don't even have boards. First layer: First, classify assets—don't use a single ruler to measure all coins. The valuation logic for different crypto assets is completely different. Bitcoin is more like a commodity, priced by scarcity. Ethereum is more like a platform, pricing through network usage. DeFi protocol tokens start to have real cash flow and can be valued like companies. Stablecoins, on the other hand, don't need valuation at all; they are just pegs. Layer Two: Bitcoin — No cash flow, but scarcity. Bitcoin has no future cash flow, so DCF can't be used. But gold also has no cash flow, yet someone still prices it. Bitcoin's valuation framework starts from commodity logic: supply side looks at halving cycles, miner costs, and S2F ratio (currently over 100, far exceeding gold's 55 to 65). Demand side looks at address growth, ETF inflows, and institutional allocation ratios. The S2F ratio measures scarcity. Gold's S2F is between 55 and 65, meaning at current mining speed, it needs 55 to 65【Ethereum liquidations hit $356 million, this wave of bulls really paid the tuition】
$ETH has dropped much harder than BTC this time. In the past 24 hours, Ethereum contract liquidations totaled about $356 million, surpassing BTC's $298 million; total network liquidations reached approximately $1.19 billion, with over $1 billion from long positions. This is not an ordinary pullback; leveraged funds betting on a rebound were wiped out in a concentrated move.
What's worse is that when ETH fell to around $2490, the US spot ETH ETF experienced continuous net outflows for several days, totaling about $640 million from September 29 to October 8. Contract longs couldn't hold on, and spot funds didn't clearly step in, so the price lacks the momentum to rebound immediately.
Another detail: after Trump signaled a pause on military action against Iran, BTC rebounded to about $82,400, and shorts started getting squeezed. But liquidation doesn't mean $356 million of bottom-fishing funds entered; it only indicates leveraged positions were forcibly closed.
I'm not in a hurry to bottom-fish ETH for now. The previous drop was sharp, and the rebound could be strong, but the continuous ETF outflows haven't been reversed yet. If ETH can hold above $2500 and spot buying picks up, it would look more like a bottom; if the rebound lacks volume and ETF outflows continue, this liquidation might just be a clearing on the way down.#SepFOMCMinutesHikeWatch and #BTCETFBiggestOutflow are trending side by side on OKX Orbit. Most will read them as two stories.
I read one. If traders still price a possible Fed hike, ETF money has less reason to stay. The outflow may say more about rates than about $BTC . That makes the ETF number a rates signal first and a Bitcoin signal second.
Which moves first: the minutes or the flows? Did the market already price the minutes in?
@OKX Orbit #OKXOrbitTopics $ETH held a 100x short position until morning! Floating profit 157%! From 2528 down to 2488, surviving the volatility shows true resilience!
Retraced from 176% to 156%, still holding a 1.57x big gain. Those who understand 100x know—one sharp move pierces everything. Lock in profits without hesitation, set stop loss at 2500 to protect the base position, then watch 2450.
No giving back means winning, steady finish! 100x doesn’t cling to fights, take profits and leave the rest to fate, a solid morning! $BTC $ZEC
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 🔥 If you could only go long on one among $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, and $ZEC, who would you bet on? Don’t rush to call it—first, take a look at the capital flows.
💰 BTC: $209 million net inflow in 12 hours, showing short-term support; but $989 million net outflow in 24 hours and $7.37 billion net outflow over 30 days indicate that large funds are still cautious. A rebound is possible, but the trend is not stable.
📉 ETH: $1.125 billion net outflow in 24 hours, also weak in the short term. To break out of continuous rebounds, capital flow needs to turn positive first.
⚡ SOL: $55.19 million net inflow in 12 hours, showing short-term sparks; however, $2.48 billion net outflow over 30 days means mid-term pressure remains unresolved. Don’t just look at half-day data.
🟢 ZEC: $100 million net inflow in 12 hours, $1.3172 million net inflow over 30 days, the most unique capital structure among the four. But inflows are just clues, not guarantees of a rise; liquidity risks must also be guarded against.
🛡️ My strategy: Don’t chase sharp rallies or guess absolute bottoms. Wait for price stabilization and capital inflow to appear simultaneously before considering entry. For stability, choose BTC; for flexibility, consider ZEC, but always keep some position reserved.
Comment below: Who would you bet on? #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #OKX以250亿美元估值完成战略融资 $ETH
Real trading technical blogger, sharing daily! Although the position size is not large, the number of positions is quite many, aiming for qualitative change!
Hello everyone, today is Saturday in the weekend, US stock market is closed, and the excellent Nasdaq traders must be resting too!
In yesterday's post, we mentioned the resistance at 2514 and 2501 above, and yesterday the highest point also reached 2520 (pulled 6-19 dollars more, which is reasonable)
But the downside has not yet tested 2453 and 2433, so let's see on Sunday night or Monday. Will there be an opportunity? If there is no major news support, the worst result would be a fluctuation between 2433-2514, waiting for CPI Ethereum broke the level it was supposed to hold.
$ETH is trading at $2,435 and it has lost the daily MA 50 at $2,550.
Next support is $2,350.
$ETHBTC also broke 0.0305 and is at 0.0299, sitting on the next support near 0.0295. RSI is at 27.25, in the oversold zone.
A bullish divergence is still on the chart but It only counts if $2,350 holds in the coming days.
The trend stays positive only if ETH holds $2,350.Once a person joins a group, their IQ drops. Abandoning right and wrong for a sense of belonging—blindly following the crowd in trading is extremely dangerous. The group only does two things: embellish success or kick someone when they're down; this is chasing highs and selling lows. The group is poor at reasoning but eager to act, acting first and thinking later, destined to be harvested. Quantity equals justice is an illusion; the direction most people are bullish on is not necessarily correct. My principle: do not easily become part of the collective, maintain independent judgment, pursue facts rather than illusions. Emotions have never lost in the conflict with reason; I remain constantly vigilant about this.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $UNI $OKXEthereum fee burning only offsets 2.07% of new issuance in 2026. According to the supply ledger on October 9, after burning, Ethereum's net increase is about 778,413 coins, with supply rising approximately 0.64%. According to NS3 reports, developers are advancing the conditional 200 million max gas target after Glamsterdam, but the mainnet timing is not yet confirmed. Model estimates show that under the current 60 million gas limit, the base fee needs to rise to about 13.85 gwei; assuming a 200 million limit, about 4.16 gwei is required to offset total issuance. In both scenarios, the model requires burning about 2,992 ETH daily.
$BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 The rebound is very weak. Let's see if it can reach around 83500 to short one position.
The supports at 81000 and 82000 have already failed. The round number is a psychological support with little reference value. The next pullback will be around 75000 near the m120 or m200 moving averages. For now, I see 74500. If it effectively breaks above 85000 and holds above 84500, then the downtrend logic fails.
ETH and SOL are similar.
ETH's first support is still 2420. It quickly recovered after dropping below. The second support is 2380; if broken, it will go down to around 2310.
Feeling a bit itchy to lightly go long, then short again after it goes up a bit.
#OKX百万规划师 $MAGIC No, this coin, it wasn't even number one on the list yesterday, so why are so many people shorting it? Just woke up, and looking at the overall account today feels very fragmented—one trade was a surprise, two were painful, and the whole account is being dragged down by DOGE.
$HOME: Entry price 0.00576, current price 0.0059, isolated 10X, margin 41.71U, floating profit 13.71U, ROI 24.30%. This trade is definitely the only consolation today. It was still losing a few days ago, but today it directly turned positive. Although the profit isn't much, it stands out sharply amid all the green.
$DOGE: Entry price 0.084763, current price 0.0856221, isolated 20X, margin 829.63U, floating loss 167.82U, ROI -20.26%. This trade is the most heartbreaking today. From a peak floating profit of 198U, ROI 116%, it has dragged down to a floating loss of 167U, ROI -20.26%. The price didn't go down but rebounded upward, and the short position was directly countered. The worst part isn't the loss, but that it once made so much profit, and I didn't exit.
$SOL: Entry price 109.93, current price 109.17, isolated 3X, margin 702.97U, floating loss 14.58U, ROI -2.07%. The long position hasn't shown any good signs since entry, grinding downward all the way. With 3X leverage, the volatility isn't big, so no need to worry too much in the short term. #跟着OKX打卡2049 #三星Q3初步利润首破100万亿韩元 #SpaceX拟购频谱拓展移动通信 $BTC bulls account for 59.31% while bears make up 40.69%. The position size remains high with no large-scale liquidation or escape. The funding rate is slightly positive. Overall, the market favors bulls, with more coins rising, maintaining at 294 coins. The gains are around 2%, and the profit-taking effect is average without explosive momentum.
$BTC is stuck near 82,500. The overall market is mildly recovering but lacks incremental funds, limiting upward momentum. Since it is the weekend, the market is likely to remain mostly sideways. 0.09102 short $MAGIC, current price 0.122, floating loss over 60%, no close yet.
The reason is simple: without a catalyst for a rally, the people chasing are even more panicked than I am.
0.135 is my line; I won't admit defeat before it. If it reaches that, I'll leave gracefully; if not, I'll wait for the long chasers to run first.
What do you think this wave of MAGIC can reach? 0.15 or will it turn back at 0.13?
Short position brothers, report your forced closes in the comments, let me see who’s more stubborn than me 🫠
$MAGIC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 First, as long as a large number of ordinary people rush in and the entire network is overwhelmingly bullish, it is often the mid-to-late stage of a market cycle. The vast majority of people in the market make money, but this situation cannot be sustained for long because the market itself is a place for wealth redistribution.
Second, when new large capital players enter, old cycle experiences may no longer apply. Many people rigidly apply historical data from ten years ago to the current market, which can easily lead to major misjudgments. Once the market's underlying structure changes, old rules become invalid.
Third, high leverage is the root cause of most people getting liquidated. Even if your overall directional judgment is correct, a short-term sharp drawdown can wipe out your position directly. Even if the market later moves according to your prediction, it will no longer concern you.
Fourth, during a complete bear market cycle, most of the time is not characterized by continuous sharp declines but by long, exhausting sideways consolidation. Prolonged consolidation slowly wears down the patience of holders; many endure for a long time but eventually choose to cut losses and exit at the bottom, just before the market is about to reverse.$BTC Hawkish FOMC combined with soaring US Treasury yields causes a "bloodbath" for crypto bulls
The hawkish FOMC minutes combined with the 10-year US Treasury yield surging to 5.36%, the highest since 2002, have put global risk assets under collective pressure. The crypto market is hit first, with BTC, ETH, and SOL all breaking down, leaving bulls facing a "bloodbath."
BTC lost support at 83,000, dipping intraday to 82,360, down about 2.6% in 24 hours. The short-term 82,500 is the first key buying zone to watch, with 80,000–82,000 as the second support; if it breaks below 80,000, stop-loss discipline should take priority. ETH is weaker, losing 2,600 support, bottoming at 2,543, down about 4.2% in 24 hours, with $236 million long positions liquidated, lighting up the entire network's red alerts. 2,510 is strong support; above 2,511, wait and see; if volume breaks down below, consider reducing positions. SOL broke below 115, down about 2.6% in 24 hours, with a bearish buy-sell ratio; light short positions near 120 on rebounds, targeting 114.
Liquidation data shows $709 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with $647 million long positions, accounting for 91%, and over 120,000 traders liquidated. High leverage chasing longs is like playing with fire. Overall, hawkish expectations and soaring US Treasury yields triggered a bull stampede, with market sentiment clearly weakening. It is currently unwise to rush to catch falling knives; wait for key support confirmation and strictly control position size and risk. The most heartbreaking data came out last night: The U.S. government deposited 17,733 BTC worth $1.48 billion into Coinbase Prime over the past three days. During these three days, BTC dropped 6.9%.
Think about it. The Federal Reserve has been calling for rate hikes for three days, and the market fell. But what really pushed the price down was the government's own wallet moving coins to exchanges.
Even more shocking, MARA—the mining company holding tens of thousands of BTC—transferred 996 bitcoins ($81.13 million) to Galaxy Digital's wallet yesterday. The market immediately exploded: Is this a sale or just moving coins to another place? Nobody knows. But the price dropped first as a sign of respect.
Look at this market: on one side, the government is moving coins; on the other, miners are relocating holdings; ETFs are still seeing continuous net outflows. Retail investors are shouting to buy the dip, while big money is quietly running.
Who’s swimming naked is clear at a glance. Do you still hold spot? Check in in the comments.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #USGovernment #ETF #Securitize launches 12 on-chain US stocks $SNDK 75x short, entered at 1643.3, now at 1596.2, floating profit +214.96%. First a spike then a slow drop, 75x short position more than doubled, truly a big win. But 75x has extremely low tolerance for error, a single spike in altcoins can wipe you out.
$SOL $BTC
Strategy: Take a large portion of profits, set stop loss pushing 1610 to protect the base position, the rest watch 1570. Always take profits at the table, walking away with gains is real, don’t be greedy for the last copper coin. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $SOL $Looking at the data, there is currently no widespread "altcoin season":
Only 3% of Binance-listed altcoins are priced above their 200-day moving average, with long-term support generally broken.
The total market cap of altcoins remains at around $1.19 trillion, with market sentiment extremely fearful.
Funds are only circulating in the AA (Account Abstraction) + AI sectors and a few fundamentally strong coins; many obscure altcoins remain flat throughout, and choosing the wrong sector means missing out. $CORE In this market, judging the direction is just the basics; position management is the core:
Don't blindly chase highs: coins that surge with low volume, spike early in the session, or have explosive hype are 90% traps.
Control leverage: the current derivatives market is fragile, and high open interest means high vulnerability; any adverse movement can be magnified and lead to liquidation.
Pay attention to the ETH/BTC ratio: only when Ethereum consistently outperforms Bitcoin will funds truly flow into altcoins; once ETH underperforms, all altcoin rallies will quickly fizzle out.
Respect risk: you can be right ten times in a row, but if you fail to manage stop-loss even once, all previous gains could vanish overnight.Using 100u for fully automated $ETH trading, Day 51 (08:05)｜Sideways for half a month, dumped everything in two days
This week was really brutal, from a high of 2739 down to 2405, a 334-point, 12% swing. Wednesday and Thursday alone contributed nearly 11%. Then it rebounded to around 2490 and oscillated, just in time for the weekend. Looks like it will stay sideways for a few more days.
Yesterday there wasn’t much movement, just some quick spikes that were pulled back. There were three levels given: one for stop loss, the other two levels weren’t even reached.
One change though: the 4-hour trend has caught up. Yesterday the short-term was correcting while the 4-hour was still going down, now the 4-hour is almost flat.
The chips are also rotating — retail longs dropped from 70% to 65%, while big players flipped from bullish to bearish.
Today is Saturday, US markets closed on Friday, volume is only about 10% of yesterday’s peak. The price is hanging around the upper and lower edges of the range; if it touches, consider it a courtesy, if not, nothing can be done.
🤖 Things here are pretty good, better than I expected: turnover near 2480 to buy, sell to short near 2495, and another turnover around 2510, which is the best position. The longs are still dragged down by previous entry prices, so the account is still showing a loss.
$BTC $ZEC
Next Wednesday night is the September CPI, market expects a year-on-year 3.6%, higher than last month’s 3.4%; Thursday follows with PPI and retail data. Rate hikes haven’t stopped, can’t imagine how intense next Wednesday and Thursday will be? Core DAO's so-called trump card (core technology + benchmark product) 1. Underlying trump card: Satoshi Plus consensus (biggest narrative selling point) 1. Hybrid consensus: Bitcoin hashrate + BTC staking + CORE staking jointly protect the network, promoted as a "Bitcoin security-enhanced EVM public chain." 2. Supports self-custody BTC staking: Bitcoin requires no cross-chain or packaging; users can stake and earn rewards using Bitcoin's native time lock, with asset users keeping their own private keys, which is its biggest difference from other BTC layer 2 platforms. 3. Dual Staking: Staking BTC + CORE simultaneously unlocks higher yields and creates demand for CORE tokens. 4. EVM compatibility; Ethereum tools and contracts can be directly migrated, with fast transfer speeds and low fees. Risks: Consensus logic is complex, with past validator reward vulnerabilities requiring hard fork fixes, and mechanism complexity poses security risks. 2. BTCFi (Bitcoin DeFi, main ecosystem track) 1. Self-custody BTC staking system: The project's first flagship product, turning dormant Bitcoin into yield-generating assets, without needing to hand over BTC to custodians. Generates BTC liquid staking certificates, which can continue to be used in ecosystem lending and DEXs. 2. Colend (flagship lending): A leading native lending protocol in the ecosystem, allowing staking BTC/LST for collateral lending; Current status: The contract still exists, but TVL is shrinkingSellers stepped aside and $BTC ran higher.
The asks at $85k were partly filled and the rest pulled, which left little resistance above.
Price has now reached the next cluster of sell orders around $87k.
It is about half the size of the old wall.$WLD is up +5.17% in 24 hours, but this time the observation doesn't start from the price change.
First, look at participation: volume is 0.56 times the average volume of the last 20 bars; then look at the cycle: 1-hour is slightly strong, 4-hour is slightly weak, with RSI at 72 and 49 respectively.
Finally, look at the boundaries. Upward only recognizes continuation after breaking through 0.5121; downward if it breaks 0.4815 and cannot quickly recover, the next observation point turns to 0.459. If these three indicators contradict each other, I prefer to wait.
Would you first trust volume, cycle, or the final result of the key price level?
The above is a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bull Talk.$BTC investors that bought the top are currently selling.
Two cohorts sit underwater: buyers from 1–2 years ago at $97k, and from 6–12 months ago at $89k.
Those who bought the 2025 rally are selling the most coins per day this year.
Those who bought the decline are not.$BTC Bitcoin dropped from 86592 to below 81000, falling nearly 4% in 24 hours. Ethereum fell below 2400, Big Zero Coin dropped 13.7%, and UNI fell 16.3%. In the past week, all top ten market cap coins have declined.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidations reached $1.193 billion. Long position liquidations were $1.055 billion, with 180,000 people wiped out in one wave. The largest single liquidation occurred on Ethereum, $19.98 million, wiped out in one strike.
Why the crash?
First, the US government intervened. In the past three days, the US government deposited 17,733 BTC into Coinbase Prime, worth $1.48 billion. The market panicked instantly, and everyone was thinking the same question: Is this going to dump the market?
Second, ETFs are retreating wildly. Bitcoin ETFs had a single-day net outflow of $244 million, with Fidelity's FBTC alone withdrawing $197 million. Ethereum ETFs have had net outflows for eight consecutive trading days, totaling $640 million. Institutions are running, and it's a collective run.
Third, the US September meeting minutes show the Federal Reserve is still worried about inflation, the 10-year US Treasury yield remains above 5.3%, and oil prices have broken $100. Expectations of rate hikes and geopolitical risks are weighing down the market, which can't hold up.
The Fear and Greed Index dropped from 74 to 69, shifting the market from greed to neutral.
And I lost even 0.35U.
Let's discuss in the comments: at the 81000 level, do you think it can hold? #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 $BTC's largest overhead liquidation cluster sits near $90k.
If price touches this level, leveraged shorts will be forced to close their positions.
Zoom into the last two months and smaller clusters can be seen around $83k and $75k.
Either side could speed up the next move.Colend (Core chain lending protocol) current status 1. The contract has not been shut down, on-chain contracts still exist, and the frontend web can still be opened, but the business has basically "essentially stalled," with activity almost zero. - March 2026: The CORE token price crash triggered a large-scale chain liquidation, severely damaging the entire protocol. Although the official statement stated that the protocol code itself was not hacked and caused by market leverage liquidation, with no bad debts, liquidity was severely destroyed. - Currently, TVL is only a few million USD, with the vast majority of collateral assets being CORE/stCORE; Stablecoin and BTC liquidity are almost exhausted. - Almost no assets can be lent: even if collateral is deposited, the lending pool has no usable liquidity; Ordinary users can only make deposits, and lending functions are basically unavailable. 2. CLND token situation - CLND tokens are still listed on exchanges, but trading volume is extremely low, depth is poor, and the price has dropped significantly from its peak. - Colend's official social media update frequency has greatly decreased, and large-scale incentive activities are no longer conducted. 3. Key reminder for existing users - The contract is not frozen; you can withdraw your deposited collateral assets, but you must manually redeem and withdraw them from the app; Do not continue to deposit new funds in the contract. - The protocol has experienced extreme liquidation events; the collateral is highly volatile CORE, and leverage risk is extremely high. Brief summary ✅: The contract technology has neither run nor shut down; it remains accessible and can be withdrawn ❌Sự kiện: Công ty phần mềm MicroStrategy (đơn vị nắm giữ nhiều BTC nhất thế giới) vừa công bố kế hoạch phát hành thêm trái phiếu chuyển đổi trị giá 700 triệu USD nhằm mục đích duy nhất: gom thêm Bitcoin vào bảng cân đối kế toán bất chấp giá đang giảm. Notes Phân tích chi tiết: Chiến lược DCA đòn bẩy: CEO Michael Saylor tiếp tục thực thi chiến lược sử dụng nợ rẻ (lãi suất thấp) để mua tài sản khan hiếm (Bitcoin). Động thái này tạo ra một "lực cầu cố định" (Inflexible demand) vô cùng lớn trên thị t$BTC leverage has returned to the warning line, don't be "liquidation fuel"
Behind this rebound lies huge leverage risk. The last major crash on October 10 serves as a warning:
The open interest (OI) in the altcoin derivatives market has returned to a dangerously high level, and funding rates are rising, indicating that the longs are overcrowded.
If Bitcoin takes even a slight deep pullback, these highly leveraged altcoins will be the first to face cascading liquidations, causing a terrifying elastic drop.
Remember: Until the market completes deleveraging, any sharp rise could be a "bull trap". Surviving is more important than making quick money.The place where ordinary people turn their fortunes around is basically in the $BTC crypto circle, gray industries, internet celebrities, going overseas, and AI.
Why? Good businesses have long been taken over by power.
Capital, licenses, land, and channels are all locked down, leaving ordinary people with thin profits and fierce competition, only able to grab scraps.
But power has blind spots; when new things emerge, it doesn't understand them or can't manage them in time. This vacuum period is the window.
The crypto circle bypasses financial approvals.
Internet celebrities bypass TV stations and become their own channels.
Going overseas breaks out of local relationship networks.
AI is even more ruthless, with one person replacing an entire department.
So the truth of the comeback is not that ordinary people have become smarter,
but that they stepped into a cake that hasn't been fully divided yet.
Once the rules are established and the big players enter, the window closes.
The crypto circle has only taken a few years to go from wild growth to strict regulation.
If you want to turn your fortunes around, don't compete in crowded places; find new areas that haven't been enclosed yet. Meme always has infinite possibilities! Whales have stopped sending $BTC to exchanges.
Their summer run of net deposits lasted over three months, twice as long as any other since 2023.
It ended in late August, and the flow has stayed negative since.Large entities are back in profit.
Small wallets stayed in profit the whole time: at the June low, $BTC held well above their $48K cost basis while sharks and whales slipped underwater.
In the 2022 bear market, price fell below every group's cost basis.$CORE It is now early Saturday morning, and liquidity in the Asian early session is naturally poor, making the market extremely prone to false moves:
Many small-cap coins look like they are rising nicely in the early session, but this is actually a pulse of existing funds pushing prices up. Once European and American session funds enter and find no follow-through, they directly dump the market.
Don't be fooled by some coins rising 5%–10% now; in a liquidity vacuum, a -20% spike down can happen in an instant.
Try to avoid opening high-leverage contracts over the weekend. Wait for the European and American sessions to open and confirm the direction before taking action, otherwise you risk being shaken out by a "false breakout."ETH's recent pullback has scared many: it dropped 7.6% in two weeks, with a maximum retracement of 11.4% from the September 21 high of 2805. The RSI14 has plunged into the oversold zone at 25.5, and the close even broke below the lower Bollinger Band. But don't rush to cut losses or go all in just yet—looking at a longer timeframe, 90 days ago it was at 1788, so it has actually risen 39% over the quarter. The 200-day moving average (2129) is still well below, and the major trend remains intact. This looks more like the first deep shakeout after the main upward wave rather than the end of a bull market. Next, focus on two key levels: holding 2406 means there's still hope; reclaiming 2551 (MA50) on volume will confirm a return to strength, with targets at 2670 and 2805. Conversely, if it breaks below 2406 and fails to recover, it will test 2350, and in an extreme case, retest the 200-day line at 2129. My approach is simple: small position on the left side to test and stop loss at 2406; on the right side, wait to reclaim 2551 before adding more, entering in batches and never going all in—look for support when fearful, resistance when greedy. These two numbers mark the boundary between bulls and bears next week. Do you think this oversold condition is a golden opportunity or just a continuation of the downtrend?💰 #BTC long-term holders stayed in profit this entire cycle.
No bear market since at least 2015 has done that. In each prior bear, LTH-MVRV fell below 1 at the cycle low, putting the cohort underwater.
This time it bottomed above 1 and is now climbing again.The daily candle just closed at 8 o'clock. Currently, it is still holding above the daily EMA30. The current price is 82573, and the EMA30 daily price is 80730.
If it can hold steady today, then the price will likely fluctuate slightly around this level, with a higher probability of going up than down. If there is an opportunity to enter around 81600, I will take a partial position. This is my observation.Hello brothers and sisters, I am a PhD.
Brothers, this is a serious positive development! The Thai SEC has officially approved allowing Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, effective October 16.
Wow, the Southeast Asian market is finally opening up. Although initially only BTC and ETH are approved, this is the first time the Thai authorities have issued licenses for crypto ETFs.
The rules are also very clear: at least 80% of net assets must be genuinely linked to the underlying assets, supervised and custodied by the local SEC, can only be traded on the Thai exchange floor, and leverage is not allowed.
I believe this means traditional institutional funds in Thailand can now enter the market openly and legitimately. Previously, Southeast Asian retail investors wanting BTC had to rely on shady exchanges; now they can buy ETFs through regulated brokers.
The short-term impact on the market is limited, as the Thai market is not large. But in the long run, it means another Asian country is bringing crypto assets into the mainstream, and this is the trend.
👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👊🏻👊🏻👊🏻👊🏻👊🏻$LAYER $SOL To be honest, this pull on SOL gave me goosebumps. Damn it! At the 109.02 level, the big players are clearly baiting longs. The K-line volume divergence is ridiculous, smart money has already fled, leaving only bag holders behind.
Don't talk to me about ecosystem narratives; purely technically, it's already hitting resistance. Around 109 is the short position ambush point, set stop loss at 112, and look down first to 103.
Those who understand, understand. I've seen this kind of shakeout tactic many times. If you want to follow, place your orders on the token card below; don't wait until it crashes and then regret it. 🔥💀
👇👇👇Liveliness is liveliness, but price is what really matters
$HYPE's 24-hour trading volume broke through $1 billion, yet the price fell about 5%. Explosive volume does not equal a flood of new money. The same funds can be traded repeatedly, and selling also contributes to volume. Therefore, trading volume only indicates large disagreement and fast-moving chips; it cannot automatically be interpreted as a price increase. If the hype doesn't fade but the price still can't push higher, watch out for selling pressure; only when the downtrend stops and the uptrend continues does active trading become more valuable. Don't assume direction from volume alone—first see if the price responds.
$BEAT dipped about 1%, appearing more stable than many coins. But calmness can mean two things: temporary balance between buyers and sellers, or both sides waiting. What really matters is whether it follows the next clear price movement. If it stays steady, it's worth watching; if the drop suddenly widens, you can't rely on previous calm as a safety cushion.
$BICO traded about $6.62 million, down about 1.6%. This volume is not enough to judge whether large orders can be easily entered or exited. Order book depth, bid-ask spread, and exit costs are more critical than volume numbers. Getting in is just the start; smooth selling determines if the trade is worthwhile.
Volume is the process; price is the result. Watch the response first, then talk expectations.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息