Orbit Post Sitemap
Bai Gui said: "When others abandon, I take; when others take, I give." Looking at this week's sideways market, I feel deeply. During the harvest, many sell off, but he quietly collects the grain; when demand rises, he chooses the right time to distribute. Essentially, this is understanding the cycle under collective sentiment. The market for Bitcoin is the same. Most people wait for the market to heat up before thinking about entering. Chip turnover mostly happens during these quiet, dull consolidation periods. Many can't endure the loneliness and leave, and the foreshadowing of a reversal is often planted at this time. Tools and market conditions keep evolving, but human nature remains unchanged. There's no need to force catching every wave; keep your rhythm and patiently wait for the opportunity that suits you. $BTC $ETH Just saw a message, this web3vc guy probably can't hold on and is about to cut losses!
This guy just withdrew 1,793,000 $UNI from Venus, worth over 13 million dollars, and then immediately transferred it all to Binance.
Why do I say he's about to cut losses? Because he withdrew this batch of UNI from Binance last year at a high price of $9.12! Everyone knows how much UNI has dropped now. If he sells it directly on Binance this time, he'll definitely lose 3.17 million dollars! Over three million dollars, several luxury villas just gone like that, it hurts to watch.
Usually, when coins are withdrawn from lending platforms and transferred to exchanges, nine times out of ten it's to sell. Either he really can't hold on and wants to stop the loss, or he's afraid the lending position will be liquidated if the price drops further, so he has to sell first to save himself. With such a large amount of UNI, if it really gets dumped, us small retail investors will definitely suffer again.$SNDK This short position is based on a combination of fundamental bearish factors and technical breakdown resonance. $MAGIC
The market and news show that the storage giant is withdrawing to preserve capital, causing the sector to pull back overall and sentiment to collapse directly. The price has dropped continuously from the high of 1806 with consecutive bearish candles; the 4-hour moving averages have all turned downward and are diverging (MA5:1588/MA10:1608/MA20:1637). The current price at 1590 is approaching the 24-hour low of 1577. I opened a short at 1646.4 (75x leverage), targeting the trend continuation after structural deterioration, with a return of over 2.5 times. $ZEC
However, 75x leverage is extremely extreme. After probing the bottom at 1577, there is a small-scale stabilization, with volume shrinking to 315k. The 1608-1637 range has become a strong resistance for the rebound, with heavy trapped positions. New coins plus TradFi attributes cause large volatility; during market closure phases, beware of spikes. I have already set protections to lock in profits, and the base position will watch the 1577 breakdown situation; if it doesn't break, expect a rebound.
High leverage only aims for quick in and out; preserving principal is the core. Feel free to discuss. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #PIMCO warns 10-year US Treasury yield could reach 6%
【US Treasury yields are almost hitting 6%, who does $BTC still want to borrow courage from?】
PIMCO has even put the possibility of the 10-year US Treasury yield hitting 6% on the table, which is no small matter. Currently, the 10-year yield has already surpassed 5.2%, and the 30-year yield once surged to 5.73%, showing significant pressure from long bond sell-offs.
On October 8, the US auctioned $22 billion in 30-year Treasury bonds, with yields reaching 5.618%, the highest since 2000. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.54, indicating buyers have not disappeared, but such high interest rates are required to find takers. Bonds are not unsellable; it’s just that borrowing costs for the US government are rising.
Meanwhile, the market is already voting with its feet: as of October 8, US stock funds saw a net outflow of $5.11 billion in one week, and Bitcoin spot ETFs have also experienced large-scale redemptions, with a net outflow of about $487 million on October 7 alone. A short-term rebound in BTC does not mean macro pressures have disappeared.
For now, don’t treat 6% as an inevitable outcome; it’s not PIMCO’s baseline forecast. But as long as oil prices, inflation, and US Treasury supply continue to exert pressure, high yields will raise funding costs, making it difficult for BTC and altcoins to remain unaffected. Conversely, if yields continue to fall and ETFs stabilize inflows again, that would indicate this round of pressure is easing. At present, I’m more inclined to control positions and wait for the market to provide answers rather than rushing to bottom-fish.BTC has risen above 80,000, is it time to buy the dip or take profits?
At 57,000, everyone was afraid of a drop; at 80,000, they start boldly chasing the rally.
The market hasn't changed, what has changed is people's mindset. They don't dare to buy at the low, but fear missing out at the high, ultimately being driven by emotions.
The biggest enemy in trading has never been the market itself, but greed and fear.
Do you think BTC can continue to rise, or is it time to be cautious?
$BTC $ETH
#BTC #ETH #CryptoMarket #CheckInWithOKX2049$JUP I didn't make much judgment, just held on a bit longer, didn't expect it to really pay off.
During the repeated fluctuations in the session, watching JUP, no one took it on the way up, strong sell orders, low trading volume, I signaled a high short wait for a breakout.
Shorted at 0.3773, dropped to 0.3675, floating profit +131.19%, this gain feels good, the wait was worth it.
First reduce at +131.19%, protect the remaining +131.19% to the cost price, don't give back profits if it rebounds, let profits run if it continues to drop.
Better to miss a limit-up than to catch a falling knife and end up with a bloody hand. The money earned is the realization of your understanding; the money lost is the flaw in your understanding. Miss it and don't chase, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, I will notify immediately.
$LAB $SOL BTC 已经反弹至昨日计划中的做空区域附近，但第一止盈目标仍未触及。 昨晚 BTC 最高反弹至 83,499.9 美元，进入此前关注的 83,000–83,500 压力区，随后回落至 82,241.5 美元，距离第一目标位 80,500 美元还有一段距离。 目前价格在 82,500 美元附近运行。未来 1–3 天，短线思路仍以等待反弹后的做空机会为主，但当前位置不适合盲目追空。 一、反弹不代表弱势结构已经扭转 从技术结构来看，日线 EMA21 和 4 小时 EMA21 均位于 83,100 美元附近，BTC 目前仍受到均线压制，尚未有效站回关键区域。 过去 24 小时，BTC 价格上涨约 1.1%，但以 BTC 计价的未平仓合约量（OI）反而下降约 0.5%。这种价格上涨、持仓量减少的组合，更像是部分空头回补带来的反弹，暂时还不足以证明多头已经掌握主动权。 此外，10 月 7 日至 8 日，BTC 现货 ETF 累计净流出约 7.29 亿美元，资金面仍需要进一步观察。 二、今日继续等待压力位，不在中间位置开仓 当前策略依旧是耐心等待，不急于在震荡区间中部进场。 - 关注压力区： 83,#PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6%
PIMCO warns: 10-year US Treasury yield may reach 6%
Bond giant PIMCO's Chief Investment Officer Ivascyn warns that the 10-year US Treasury yield could rise from the current approximately 5.29% to 6% in the short term, marking the first time since 2000.
Triple pressure combined. The US-Iran war pushes up oil prices, increasing sensitivity to energy inflation; US public debt continues to expand, pushing up term premiums; the AI capital expenditure boom brings massive corporate financing demand, competing with the government for long-term capital. Additionally, hedge funds are stopping losses on leveraged US Treasury positions, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of "rising yields → forced liquidation → further rise."
5.5% is the risk asset pressure line. Ivascyn clearly states that if yields rise to 5.5% or above, there will be "significant weakness" in the stock and credit markets.
BTC is currently priced around 82,600, down nearly 3% this week, fluctuating between 82,000-83,000. Historical data shows that Bitcoin's linear correlation with interest rates is generally weak, but a risk-free return above 5% does limit its upside. Resistance is at 84,500, support at 81,800. Some positions have stop-losses below 81,500; short positions wait for a pullback to 82,000-82,500 to stabilize before entering again. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Finally waited for $MAGIC to reverse and pick up, opening a long position. Directly following what I consider the opening logic:
① Large volume support
During the sharp drop, there was an enormous trading volume, but a long lower shadow formed near 0.097, indicating active capital is buying in, and the bears can't push it down anymore.
② Fibonacci key level + long lower shadow candlestick support
0.1036 is the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement level, and the price just closed near this level with a long lower shadow, doubly confirming the support is effective.
③ Follow the major trend, against the minor trend
The major trend is upward (rising from 0.06 to 0.16, a 160% increase). The 15-minute chart shows a sharp pullback, which is a classic buy point of "following the major trend, against the minor trend."
④ Optimistic funding rate
The long funding rate is relatively healthy, with no signs of overcrowded longs, indicating there is still room for the price to rise.
⑤ Attractive risk-reward ratio
Stop loss at 0.095 (below previous low), take profit at 0.15 (near previous high), risk-reward ratio about 1:3.1. Such a ratio is worth a shot.
⑥ Additional logic: oversold + moving average support
The 15-minute STOCHRSI dropped to 3.2, extremely oversold, indicating strong short-term rebound demand. Meanwhile, the price is close to the 4-hour EMA55 (0.09776), the lifeline of the mid-term trend, and the first touch likely provides support.
Position plan:
· Stop loss: 0.095 (hard stop loss)
· First target: 0.120, close 30%
· Second target: 0.131 (EMA9), close 30%
· Ultimate target: 0.150, remaining 40%
Risk warning:
This is a counter-trend rebound trade. If the price breaks below 0.097 with volume, the long logic fails and stop loss must be unconditional. Position size controlled at 3x leverage, no heavy positions.
What do you think about going long at this level? Is the risk-reward ratio worthwhile? If it were you, would you buy near 0.097 or wait for a second pullback confirmation? Feel free to discuss in the comments.Gold Weekend Analysis: The Position at 4195, Difficult Both Ways
Spot gold at $4,195, up +1.2% this week. After a sharp drop of -6.6% in September, the market is finding balance in the $4,062-$4,404 range.
Three macro bearish factors and one bullish factor:
Bearish 1: The Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4% in September (first time in three years), with minutes more hawkish, likely to raise again before year-end. CME: 70% probability of a rate hike in December.
Bearish 2: 10-year US Treasury yield at 5.3%, a multi-decade high, putting comprehensive pressure on zero-yield gold.
Bearish 3: Dollar at an 18-month high, DXY around 102.
Bullish: China has been buying for 23 consecutive months (77.47 million ounces); Q3 gold ETF net inflows hit a record $31 billion. But $18 billion bought in August at $4,300-$4,500 is fully trapped, creating heavy overhead resistance.
Technical (4H): The full downtrend segment is from $4,690 to $4,090; now $4,195 is a secondary bottom rebound. MIX precisely bottomed at the green dot of $4,090 on September 28, then rose +$130. Resistance above at $4,220/$4,300/$4,450; support below at $4,100/$4,070/$4,000.
Next week: October 14 CPI is the only major event, deciding between $4,100 or $4,220; before the October 27-28 FOMC, no major trend expected. High probability of box range oscillation between $4,100-$4,300. Small coins only surge strongly when there is capital pushing them; without anyone pushing, there's an 80% chance of getting stuck. Without a narrative, you get stuck for years, so never put faith in small coins. Go long or short for 10% gains and then immediately exit.After the World Cup, the development directions of leading prediction markets have gradually diverged.
Kalshi consolidates its off-chain, compliance, and sports specialization advantages, while expanding into Perp DEX perpetuals.
Polymarket focuses on the US market and Perp DEX perpetuals but has reduced feedback and attention from the Web3 community.
Predict Fun specializes in short-term crypto price movement markets and supports CEX event contracts.
The first two seem to be drifting further from Web3; Kalshi has always been centralized, and Polymarket operates with a Web2 mindset. Although both are working on Perp DEX, their goals remain to compete for valuation and broaden non-prediction business to maintain high valuations.
Predict Fun’s approach is more native, using short-term price movements as the foundation, continuously deepening sports, esports, TradFi, and Asian markets.
With Meme-driven crypto users holding positions for much shorter times, this new trading form of short-term price movement/event contracts has the potential to gain more trading volume in the future. To some extent, betting on Predict Fun’s valuation is also a bet on this time-sliced market.The market continues to slowly grind upwards, with altcoins showing significantly stronger rebounds. $AAVE has surged by four points, making me a bit stunned looking at my positions. Right now, I really want to just cash out and run.
The $ETH 100x short still has some floating profit left, but the gains keep shrinking back and forth, while the floating loss on the AAVE short keeps expanding. The weekend's expected bull trap scenario I had in mind shows no signs of weakening; the price keeps rising slightly, making holding the position increasingly agonizing.
With 100x leverage, I simply can't afford a sustained rebound; a single spike could wipe out all profits or even cause liquidation. I'm really conflicted now, unsure whether to just close the position to secure the remaining profit or grit my teeth and hold on, waiting for the waterfall drop expected on Monday. I'd like to ask everyone, what would you choose in this situation?
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#跟着OKX打卡2049 $CAP really is a wild coin, launching surprise attacks over the weekend. Looking at CAP's chart, I just exclaimed, wow.
While the market was dead silent over the weekend, it went straight from 0.063 to 0.10, a surge of 23%.
Volume reached 62.75 million U, MACD golden cross—clearly the whales took advantage of the weekend's low liquidity to launch a sudden pump with a small amount of funds.
These small-cap new coins pump hard and crash even harder.
Current price is 0.091, definitely not chasing the high to become a bag holder.
If you hold it, reduce your position on rallies and lock in profits.
If you don’t hold it, just let it play out and wait for a pullback and stabilization.
Money is hard to make on wild coins; preserving your principal is more important than anything.
Don’t get blinded by a single big bullish candle.
This is just market analysis and does not constitute investment advice.6.26 million bitcoins are "naked running," is your coin among them?
Here's a number you need to sync with today: According to Glassnode statistics, there are currently 6.26 million bitcoins lying in addresses with exposed public keys, accounting for 31.2% of the circulating supply. At the current price, that's over 500 billion USD.
Don't panic yet, this doesn't mean Bitcoin has been hacked. The principle is simple: Bitcoin addresses usually hide the public key behind a hash; once you spend, the public key is permanently left on the chain. Reusing an address is like undressing once — among these 6.26 million, 4.33 million are due to address reuse. Exchanges are even more extreme: about 83% of Binance's coins are in exposed addresses, while Coinbase has only about 10%.
The threat comes from the future: if quantum computers can really run Shor's algorithm, these exposed public keys could theoretically be reverse-engineered to private keys. Europol just said quantum computing won't break cryptocurrencies, but wallets are the main exposure point.
So this issue is unrelated to short-term price (Bitcoin is currently around 82,800, sideways), it's a long-term security matter. There are only two things you can do: don't reuse addresses, and keep your wallet software updated.
Is your coin usually used at one address until death?
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile, control your position size. For reference only, not investment advice.
#Bitcoin #EthereumI don't think volume will save the market over the weekend. Binance BTC trading volume during the Asian session was about $241 million, roughly half of the previous day. Spot price is about $82,757 (Beijing 16:22, Coinbase).I didn't expect $MET to break even, but it directly brought me profits. This service is really on point.
While everyone was still hesitating, $MET was around 0.2957. After a pullback and stabilization, buying pressure strengthened, so I casually went long. The logic was simple—I just felt this position was worth trying.
Watching the repeated fluctuations during the session was really torturous; I almost doubted myself.
But $MET gave me some face, hitting 0.4151, +804.19%. Time for a nice meal.
I took profits on 75% first, keeping 25% at cost price as protection. If it keeps rising, let the profits run; if it falls back, it won't turn gains into pain.
Don't get greedy with profits, don't despair over pullbacks.
Now is not the time to rush; chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. There will be more opportunities later; wait for a new structure to emerge before deciding.
$SNDK $ETH Weekend consolidation, playing dead waiting for the wind, BTC 82841 slight drop, ETH 2495 slight rise
Trading volume extremely shrunk, BTC only 288 million.
Typical weekend dead time.
US stock market closed, institutional funds stagnant. FOMC hawkish bias, CPI on October 14th looming overhead, no one dares to make a move.
This kind of low-volume consolidation is specifically for pinning and stop-loss hunting, don't chase either up or down.
My strategy is just two words: play dead.
Hold spot positions tightly, absolutely no leverage, and definitely no reckless orders.
Wait for next week's CPI release, the direction will naturally become clear, control your hands, and endure the dead time.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $ZEC
[ID Perspective] The market is bottoming out, so why is ZEC's rebound weak?
In the past few days, Bitcoin has fallen and entered a sideways phase, with ETH and ADA somewhat recovering. In contrast, ZEC's rebound strength is noticeably weaker, lacking the previous counter-trend momentum.
Many remember that during market panic, privacy narratives play a role, and ZEC often resists declines. But after a big drop, when funds want to bet on a rebound, people prefer to rush into more elastic altcoins, leaving privacy themes aside.
The story logic remains, but in the short term, the market depends on fund sentiment. Currently, ZEC passively follows Bitcoin, with no active buying seen.
Don't blindly go long based on past counter-trend impressions. ZEC futures positions are heavy; if the market dips again, it will also drop sharply without mercy.
Key points to watch next: whether it catches up with a late rally or continues to underperform altcoins, which will reveal fund attitudes toward this narrative.Those still waiting for confirmation are watching; I've already gained +189. $SUI 50x long, from 1.0726 to 1.1131.
1.0726 is the previous wave's 0.618 retracement plus the previous high overlap, a triple support resonance.
Don't chase the breakout at the inflection point; this is the optimal odds solution. 50x leverage amplifies 189.25%. Move the stop loss up, keep holding. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $SOL short position with 100x leverage, opened at 120.63 and closed at 109.87, floating profit of 891.98%. This trade captured the main downtrend cleanly, but don't be dazzled by nearly 9 times the profit.
What does 100x leverage mean? If the asset rebounds about 1.1% (to around 111), this nearly 9x profit would be halved or even wiped out. 109.87 is right near the 110 whole number key level, with 108-110 below being a dense area of previous buy orders and weekly low support. The RSI indicator has long been oversold. Around 4 PM, the main players like to use the key level to defend the price with sudden spikes to shake out positions. I’m not betting on this 0.25% buffer; I’m directly closing 95% of the position to lock in profits at the current price, leaving 5% as a base position with a hard stop loss at 111.
If it breaks 108, I’ll watch 105 and take it as it comes; if it doesn’t hit, no worries. Conditional orders are set, and I’ll turn off the device to take profits. The numbers on the screen are illusions; only the balance credited to the account is real money. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Ledger lost 86 million USD: The mnemonic phrase was read the moment you wrote it down 🔐
On-chain analyst Specter tracked down 10 suspicious addresses, collecting over 86 million USD from hundreds of victim wallets across BTC, ETH, and TRON chains. Ledger officials have not yet confirmed the total loss; current clues all point to the same source: Malaysian distributor CryptoBilis.
📍 Disclosed attack route (analysis by SlowMist 23pds)
1️⃣ Modified devices sold through normal channels, with intact shrink wrap packaging
2️⃣ A board hidden under the screen buffer pad: microcontroller + LTE module + eSIM + antenna
3️⃣ You initialize the device, the mnemonic phrase displays on the screen, and the module reads it from the SPI screen line
4️⃣ After setup, data is sent back to the attacker via 4G
The secure chip can prevent private keys from being directly exported but cannot control what is displayed on the screen. SlowMist also noted that this path and hardware implantation still require independent verification.
Whether Ledger can provide the root cause and affected batches will directly impact the reputation of the entire cold wallet sector.
Where did you buy your cold wallet?
The above is personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
#三星钱包将上线USDC跨境转账 #Ledger调查东南亚经销商渠道资金损失 "Small Wealth Brings Peace" Weekly Review (10/3 – 10/10): How I "Held On" This Time
1. The Result First
I made money this week. All 7 contract trades won, with a 100% win rate, earning a total of 273 yuan; the entire account ended with a net gain of +118.67. On the surface, it looks pretty good, but I know deep down—this win was a bit shaky.
2. What I Went Through
The market started the week with a sharp drop. On the 3rd, I lost a small 63, recovered 166 on the 4th, thought it was okay, but then lost consecutively on the 5th and 7th. On the 8th, I lost directly -2.3K in one day, with the account’s maximum cumulative loss reaching 3.28K. Honestly, those two days were quite tough.
I didn’t run away; I chose the "bullet strategy"—adding a layer after each drop, averaging down the cost, betting that after a full drop it would rebound. On the 9th, the market indeed made a V-shaped recovery, and I earned 3K in one trade, filling the entire hole and making a small profit.
3. What I Did Right
First, my mindset held up. At the deepest drawdown, I didn’t panic and cut losses—that’s the truth. Many people lose big money not because of bad judgment but because of panic; I got through that.
Second, I was very tight with contracts, using small positions for quick in-and-out trades, not clinging to any single trade. All 7 trades were closed with profits, avoiding being swept up by big market moves.
Third, I was decisive in cashing out the rebound on the 9th, without "waiting to see more."
4. But I Have to Be Honest With Myself
1. The essence this time was "holding and averaging down," not trading. I won because the market gave me a V-shaped reversal. If the 9th hadn’t rebounded and continued to drift down? My -3.28K loss would have turned into -6K, -10K, averaging down until I ran out of resources. This approach naturally has a high win rate but terrible payout—earning small profits eight times, then losing it all once, possibly even losing principal.
2. The risk-reward ratio is completely unbalanced. I earned only 273 yuan from all contract wins, while the single-day maximum loss on the asset side was 2300 yuan. The system’s "risk-reward ratio" shows `--`, meaning: I have no real stop-loss to calculate; all losses were borne hard, not cut off by stop-loss. This is a major hidden risk.
3. A 100% win rate sounds impressive but is actually scary. Someone who never stops losses will naturally have a near 100% win rate—until one day it goes straight to zero. My current curve is propped up by this.
5. Rules I Set for Myself Next Week
1. Limit averaging down to three layers, with fixed intervals between layers, and set a total position cap. If it still drops after reaching the cap, accept the loss and exit—no more "waiting to see."
2. Before entering each trade, write down the maximum loss allowed (e.g., 2% of principal), place stop-loss orders to let the system calculate the real risk-reward ratio.
3. When the market drops sharply, pause and think: should I average down or stay out and wait for a right-side signal? If I had done nothing on the 8th and entered all at once after confirming the rebound on the 9th, the drawdown would have been much smaller, and profits might not have been less.
4. Find time to break down the 3K profit on the 9th: how much was market-given rebound bonus, and how much was my correct judgment. The former is not replicable; the latter is my real skill.
6. Summary in One Sentence
I won this week by holding on and by mindset, but holding trades is not a strategy—it’s luck hitching a ride. Since I made money this time and my mind is clear, I’ll quickly set the rules—because when I face the first big one-way drop that doesn’t bounce back, there might not be a next time.$MAGIC - Pressure range: 0.124~0.128 (first strong resistance), extreme test 0.133~0.138
The gaming sector's funds are concentrated and rallying together, with short-term shorts continuously being stopped out. As long as the sector's heat does not quickly fade, there is still room for inertia-driven rallies; however, after a single-day surge, a large amount of leveraged long positions accumulate, risking a rapid 10%+ pullback at any time. Absolutely avoid chasing highs or adding positions.
- Support range: 0.106~0.109 (short-term lifeline), 0.097~0.101 (strong support zone)
A volume breakout below 0.106 signals the end of this round of capital-driven rally, with profit-taking concentrated and a rapid correction following.$ETH has rebounded from the low point this round, looking like it’s stabilizing, but active selling pressure in the order book is still suppressing the price, and institutions are still withdrawing funds through ETFs. This is definitely not a bottoming-out scenario with volume expansion.
First, look at volume and price. The drop to the low point was a liquidity sweep, where stop losses and leveraged long positions were forcefully liquidated, then the price bounced back to the mid-level. But the volume on the rebound is off—the open interest is decreasing, indicating old positions are being closed rather than new money coming in; active sell volume in the order book still far exceeds active buy volume, so the rebound lacks solid capital confirmation.
Next, look at the resistance above. The 2500 to 2600 resistance zone has been tested three times this month and each time the price fell back, a typical dense trading and trapped position area. Every rebound to this level is suppressed, and the selling pressure above hasn’t been fully absorbed. ETFs continue to see net outflows, institutional demand has temporarily cooled off, and without this support, retail investors alone can’t hold it up.
Characterizing the current position: the price is stuck between the resistance zone below and the long-term demand zone above. Although the CVD shows marginal improvement, it remains negative, meaning selling pressure has only weakened, not reversed. The ETH/BTC ratio is still at multi-month lows, clearly weaker relative to Bitcoin.
On the right side, focus on one thing: a volume-backed close above the 2500-2600 resistance zone, along with ETF outflows turning into net inflows. Until then, every rebound looks more like a pause in a downtrend. Don’t guess the bottom; wait for volume and flow to speak.#美俄达成柴油供应安排，霍尔木兹风险仍未解
The US and Russia have reached a diesel supply agreement, with the US issuing a temporary license and Russia set to release millions of tons of diesel globally. Following the news, diesel and crude oil prices briefly declined. However, it is important to note that this only alleviates the diesel supply gap; the geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved.
My view: The market is prone to misinterpret this energy agreement as a complete resolution of the Middle East crisis. The agreement addresses diesel export restrictions, but the core conflict over Strait navigation and US-Iran confrontation remains unsettled. If shipping through the Strait is disrupted again, oil prices will quickly rebound, and inflation expectations will resurge.
From a macro perspective, repeated oil price increases will delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, push up US Treasury yields, and suppress risk assets like BTC. The short-term oil price drop will temporarily relieve market pressure, but geopolitical black swan events could occur at any time, so this should not be seen as a trend-driven positive.
Trading strategy: Do not blindly chase risk assets with contracts. This positive development is a short-term sentiment recovery, not a macro turning point. Continue to closely monitor Strait navigation, Brent crude prices, and long-term US Treasury yields. If tensions escalate again, prepare risk controls and reduce positions in advance. Everyone says that October 10th last year was the worst day for coin drops
But the truth is, even if you caught the exact bottom wick of top coins like ETH, BNB, SOL, we are still far from the peak now.
ETH at 3.4k back then was a disaster, but the upcoming 3k mark is a luxury
$BTC $ETH $SOL The overall market has also been falling these past few days, and SOL has been dropping even harder. On 10-08, the market fell less than four points from its high to low, while $SOL SOL dropped nine and a half points. Looking only at its own chart, it just seems like a bad market, but placing it next to the overall market reveals those extra points of decline.
The difference is shown in the SOL to $BTC price ratio. On 10-06, it was still at 0.00141, but slid more than 5% in four days to 0.00132. The money selling SOL has been more urgent than the money selling the overall market; funds are moving away from it to elsewhere.
On 10-10, this price ratio stopped falling for the first time during the session and even recovered a bit. SOL dropped a bit over one point, the market dropped half a point, and the gap between the two narrowed to the smallest in this period. The continuously declining price ratio finally paused.
To judge whether a fallen coin is being managed, just watching its own rise and fall isn’t enough. Pulling out its price ratio against the overall market and reading them together is necessary. If the price ratio keeps falling daily, the weaker side hasn’t finished selling, and money is moving out. When the price ratio stops falling and levels off, the relative selling pressure has mostly been released, and the remaining task is to repair alongside the overall market.
That said, leveling off in the price ratio is still far from turning strong. It will take several days of holding up against the fall to exchange for strength. For now, it’s at most not dragging behind anymore—the first step of recovery has just been taken.
Going forward, don’t just count how many points SOL has risen. Pull out its price ratio against the overall market and take a look. If the price ratio is rising daily, the money that moved out is returning.$BTC stabilized around the 82,000 level, currently trading near 82,500. On Thursday, it dipped to 80,427, the lowest since early September, then slightly rebounded about 1.38% in 24 hours. ETH simultaneously bounced back to around 2,475, with the total market capitalization rising 2.1% to 2.89 trillion USD.
Sentiment shows divergence. The Fear and Greed Index stands at 63, up 5 points from yesterday, with a 7-day average of 66, still in the greed zone but noticeably down from 71 on October 2. Liquidations in the past 24 hours totaled 147.53 million USD, with shorts accounting for 72%, about 106 million USD. BTC short liquidations were 47.24 million USD, 2.6 times that of longs. Shorts are being squeezed, but the index is falling, indicating mixed bullish and bearish expectations. On the funding side, signs of stabilization appear: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of 21.12 million USD yesterday, with BlackRock's IBIT leading at 22.38 million USD net inflow, while Fidelity's FBTC had a net outflow of 3.58 million USD, marking a preliminary recovery from previous large outflows.
From the chart perspective, the 83,000 to 83,500 range has shifted from support to resistance, 82,300 is short-term support at the Bollinger Bands middle line, and 80,800 at the lower band is strong support. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve's September minutes show most officials support one more rate hike before year-end, with about a 68% chance of a hike in December. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 "$ALGO I've been watching this coin for quite a while. Honestly, apart from occasional pumps, no one really uses it for an ecosystem. Opening a short at 0.138 was just because I thought it should drop."
It dropped from 0.13892 to 0.11548, the main token fell nearly 17%, and with 50x leverage, I got 843%. There's not much to analyze on the chart; it's just an old coin with no buyers. Every time it pumps, it's just to lure people in. It can't even hold 0.12 now, let's see if it can reach 0.11 below.
My mindset on this trade is pretty steady; I don't plan to bottom-fish or add positions. The base position is break-even, the rest is just hanging to watch 0.11. I'll wait until there's volume breaking below 0.11 to act; if it doesn't break, I won't move. Anyway, I've already made several times profit, no rush. $BTC $ETH #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 The founder leaving doesn't mean the coin is dead. The BTC founder has been missing for 15 years, the DOGE founder sold to buy a car, yet both remain among the largest coins.
But you have to know. For some coins, the founder sold and ran away long ago, and if you're still holding on, it's you.
Even if the founder stays, it can't save everything. Some coins on the "still at the helm" list have dropped more than 90% from their all-time highs.
I know, when buying coins no one looks at the founder, only the charts. Actually, the first question to ask is this: Is the person who started this thing still around? Is their money still in it?
Save this. Before buying a new coin, open this and check where the founder is today.
Final chapter.80 Bitcoins Vanish from Ledger Wallet: A Precise “Supply Chain Massacre” On October 9, 2026, a Bitcoin holder discovered that 80 Bitcoins had disappeared from their Ledger wallet, resulting in a loss of approximately $6.6 million at the market price at that time. These Bitcoins had only been transferred into this newly purchased Ledger device on September 29, and before the theft, the account had an unrealized gain of up to $1.38 million. He Did Everything by the Book The device was purchased from an officially authorized dealer, the mnemonic phrase was handwritten and locked in a safe, with no screenshots, photos, or cloud uploads. Yet at 05:54 UTC on October 9, all 80 BTC were transferred out in a single transaction. This Is Not an Isolated Incident On the same morning, numerous similar reports began appearing on X and Reddit, with victims sharing a common factor: all devices were purchased from the Southeast Asian dealer CryptoBilis. On-chain investigator Specter estimated losses exceeding $86 million, Bitquery covering 311 wallets estimated about $92.9 million, and SlowMist’s MistTrack reported figures approaching $90 million. Precise Harvesting, Not a Scattergun Approach Compared to the July Coldcard incident, the nature of this attack is clearer. Coldcard’s firmware random number defect allowed mnemonic phrases to be inferred, causing losses of about $111 million, but spread across more than 5,200 wallets, averaging about $21,000 per wallet. In contrast, CryptoBil$FIL
FIL is approaching a high point. For the storage narrative, should we focus on capacity or payment?
Today's early spot 24-hour observation window: range 1.058—1.1 USDT, change +1.17%, trading volume approximately 9.05 million USDT.
The price is close to the upper edge of the window, with short-term support recovering somewhat. Expansion of storage capacity does not equal increased payment demand; continuous usage, renewal, and revenue are closer to value realization; this market movement has not provided evidence of these business activities.
If there is only the capacity story and the rebound quickly loses the upper half of the range, first lower the business interpretation; if payment and renewal improvements can be verified, and 1.1 is reclaimed and held, then raise the assessment.Unlocking is not a sell order, and demand should not be calculated out of thin air
The $SUI total supply cap and the increase in circulating supply can happen simultaneously. Its supply cap is 10 billion tokens, which are released gradually according to plan. Therefore, "limited total supply" alone is not enough to judge short-term supply and demand; the market trades the circulating portion. I think unlocking is more like a demand test: after new supply appears, can usage, staking, and holding demand keep up? But we also cannot count the entire unlocked amount as selling pressure. Obtaining the qualification to sell does not equal having sold; the actual amount transferred to trading venues and selling behavior are closer to the pressure on price.
$WLD distributes tokens to users, which can both expand participation and put tokens into more hands. The whitepaper arranges for long-term user token allocation. This makes me more concerned about how much buying or holding demand new users bring simultaneously. An increase in token recipients does not automatically mean an increase in buyers. If network expansion mainly relies on rewards and usage demand lags behind, scale and token price may move in different directions.
$ARB Foundation’s portion of tokens is released in installments through contracts, which is a supply arrangement. My view is that the market may trade the unlocking expectation in advance, and the actual release may not be as intense as imagined. But this cannot be interpreted as "unlocking is a positive." The key is how much concern the price reflected before and how much actual selling occurs after release. The calendar can tell us when disposal rights are obtained but cannot tell us how holders will dispose of them."50x $STRK long position, 1221% unrealized profit, the gains are not from the candlestick moves, but because the market finally remembered that the ZK sector still has a 'big brother' at the bottom preparing a big move."
From 0.05573 to 0.06934, the main token rose 24.4%, and 50x leverage squeezed out 1221% profit. Recently, ZK ecosystem interactions have warmed up, and Starknet, as a leading infrastructure, confirmed a double bottom at the base and broke out with volume. 0.060 shifted from strong resistance to core support, 0.06934 approaches the previous high, and the 0.075-0.080 range above forms a chip vacuum zone.
View: 50x leverage severely tests the mindset. The base position has been moved to lock in profits, and the remaining profit position targets 0.080. Hold if the pullback does not break 0.060; reduce immediately on any spike warning to protect the thousand-point unrealized profit, which is the core. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Sisters, $MAGIC has already dropped, so why hasn't this $CAP fallen yet? If it doesn't drop soon, I'm going to collapse. 💀
I really want to trace the internet line over there and drag out the dog whales to ask, what exactly makes this crappy coin so strong?
I just went and dug up all the details about this coin, but found no substantial positive news at all.
It's all just those few signal posts hyping it up, purely pushed up by retail investor sentiment.
This isn't value discovery at all; clearly, they're using us as fuel!
Look at the daily chart, it shot up from 0.07 straight to 0.1, with all moving averages spreading upward, and the MACD red bars getting longer and longer.
On the surface, it looks bullish and unstoppable, but in reality, it's all a bubble-built castle in the air.
It’s rising so sharply without any decent pullback; the dog whales are dead set on squeezing the shorts.
I have two short positions, entered at 0.03975 and 0.07031, now one is floating at a 101% loss, the other at a 410% loss.
Being crushed to the ground and drained dry, my heart is bleeding, sisters! 😭
But the more it pumps like this, the more I stubbornly hold on.
This kind of dog whale highly controlled market pumps purely on sentiment; once this short squeeze ends and the bulls get liquidated, the drop will be a free fall.
I'm not running away, my target remains the same: waiting for it to fall back to 0.06 or even lower.
Tonight, I’ll just obediently eat some houttuynia cordata and try to calm down. 😭
$BTC
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#美俄达成柴油供应安排，霍尔木兹风险仍未解 Another coin has been delisted: discounted exit, first lose 3.5%
BTW, being listed on the delisting list means holders need to convert their positions to USDT themselves, with a reference ratio of about 1 BTW = 1.49 USDT, which is about 3.5% lower than the market price of 1.544 — exiting through this channel means taking a discount loss first.
The chain reaction affects liquidity: some secondary market spot depth shrinks, with pressure from passive selling and liquidity diversion rising together, making short-term supply side changes worth monitoring.
Holders have a straightforward choice: accept the discount and exit quickly, or find alternative liquidity. $BTW⏳Countdown to the liquidation anniversary: Don't treat the anniversary like a script
October 11 is approaching, and the roughly $19 billion liquidation on October 10-11 last year still sends chills down the spine. But anniversary ≠ replay; what we really need to guard against is: a weak market combined with panic, with leverage amplifying the volatility.📉
Current prices: BTC around 82,980, 24h +0.83%; ETH around 2,498, -1.34%; SOL around 110.51, -1.85%. BTC is recovering, but ETH and SOL haven't kept up.
Key levels:
🔹BTC: First see if it can hold above 83,000; if it can't reclaim this level, continue to guard against a pullback; watch 82,000 and 80,000 as support below.
🔹ETH: 2,500 is the immediate battleground; if it can't hold, look at 2,450 and 2,400. Cheap doesn't mean fully dropped, so I kept short positions.
🔹SOL: First defend 110; if lost, watch 108 and 105; to ease weakness, it needs to reclaim 112 with volume.
The focus these two days is not guessing direction but managing positions. The anniversary itself won't crash the market; panic selling and forced liquidations may amplify each other. Guard against pullbacks and also against chasing shorts after a sharp drop only to be squeezed.🛡️
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 🇺🇸 What is the US government up to in the crypto space recently?
1. Government wallets on the move. From October 7-8, $670 million was transferred out in 32 hours: 6,215 BTC, 119 million USDT, 40,285 BNB, all moved into Coinbase Prime. Bitfinex confiscation address transferred another 12,267 BTC, about $1 billion. Transfer does not equal sell; it could be custody consolidation, with strategic reserve BTC not for sale.
2. Regulatory winds have shifted. CFTC proposed the first batch of crypto regulatory rules, allowing retail leverage platforms to opt for federal oversight. FinCEN withdrew two controversial proposals: recording non-custodial wallets over $3,000 and mixing coin monitoring. The background is the CLARITY Act failing in September, shifting regulation toward rulemaking.
3. Market outlook? The government’s transfers coincided with BTC struggling between 82k-83k, and US Treasury yields at 5.72%. Key observation: whether BTC can hold 81,770-82,300. Stable exchange balances are seen as administrative moves.
In short: government wallets are moving but not selling; regulation is changing toward loosening; watching on-chain flows is more useful than watching the news.When you can't see the direction clearly
and don't have a good mindset
it's best to stay out of the market and watch
otherwise, like me, shorting $ETH and getting stuck
will only make your mood worse
and cause you to make more chaotic moves!I couldn't resist adding more $PONS today, even though I know it might still drop. My idea is to at least keep the cost price roughly at the current price level, so I won't have to chase the price when it pumps later. The cost price is now below 0.4. If it continues to drift down slowly, I'll add a little more, but I hope it drops 10% all at once like it did a couple of days ago, going straight to the point! $PONS's buyback mechanism should rank in the top five in the crypto space. Currently, there's just one problem: after the hype around Robinhood Chain and $ARB fades and things return to normal, the revenue drops significantly. This is the only reason for the current low price of PONS. In short, the hardest part is to endure. Anyway, staying patient is never wrong!Ethereum doesn't need to outperform Bitcoin every day, but if ETH consistently underperforms BTC in the long term, it's worth seriously analyzing the reasons behind it.
Is market capital continuously concentrating on Bitcoin?
Are investors' risk appetites declining?
Or is Ethereum itself facing unique pressures?
When analyzing the market, the most important thing is not to rush to conclusions, but to first identify the right questions and then seek answers step by step. Went to court
FTT: Founder sentenced to 25 years, still inside
LUNC: Founder sentenced to 15 years
CEL: Founder sentenced to 12 years
SAFEMOON: CEO sentenced to 8 years
A certain case: Founder served 4 months, was pardoned, did not return
bitcoin-cash's most famous figure paid $49.9 million to get out
Left, then came back
DOT: Founder left in 2022, returned in 2025
This is the second post这次 Maji 的仓位风险，确实让人捏一把汗。 🔴 账户整体数据 - 累计盈亏：-3564.53 万美元 - 近 7 天亏损：763.85 万美元 - 近 24 小时盈利：16.79 万美元 - 当前账户总资产：约 213.1 万美元 🔴 $ETH 多单：高杠杆风险拉满 📊 持仓数量：12,000 枚 ETH 💰 持仓总价值：2992.68 万美元 📍 开仓均价：2547.66 美元 📉 当前未实现亏损：64.52 万美元 💸 累计资金费：134.86 万美元 ⚠️ 预估强平价：2454.09 美元 🔥 杠杆倍数：25 倍全仓 ❌ 可用保证金：0 美元 真正值得警惕的，并不只是账面亏损有多大，而是账户目前仅剩约 213 万美元资产，却扛着接近 3000 万美元的 ETH 多头仓位，而且已经没有可用保证金。 更麻烦的是，资金费仍在持续累积，进一步增加持仓成本。即使后续 ETH 真的反弹，也不代表这笔仓位一定能撑到行情反转的那一刻。 方向判断正确，不等于仓位管理就没有问题。 在高杠杆交易中，市场还没等来反弹，账户就可能先承受不住。 🤔 Maji 这次究竟是在押注 ETH 😊 Midday market view on 10.10, BTC
BTC broke below the bearish flag pattern, falling below the 82727 support.
This rebound wave has consistently failed to surpass the 83532 resistance, with rebound highs gradually declining, increasing the short-term probability of a pullback.
If it can't hold above 82727, it will be difficult to challenge 83532.
The market may retest the previous low to form a double bottom, oscillating within a large range, waiting for a breakout or breakdown to determine direction.
Key levels to watch:
Below: 81917, 81006, previous low 80379, waiting for stabilization signals;
Above: 84500-85200, observe pressure conditions. If no opportunity arises, remain on the sidelines.
Hourly chart must hold above 82727 to have a chance to target 83532 to 84553;
4-hour chart breaking below 81917 suggests further decline to 81006 and 80379.
Technical review only, not investment advice. +85.75%, $HYPE 50x short. 85.884→84.411.
Logic: 85.8 is the upper edge of the previous 1-hour dense trading zone, the daily chart shows signs of stagnation, the 4-hour high is decreasing, and after breaking a small support on the 1-hour chart, there is a rebound.
Multi-timeframe resonance leans bearish, I entered short at the weak rebound at 85.884. The actual 1.72% drop turned into an 85% floating profit.
Stop loss moved down to 85.1, target near 83.5. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 "After the sharp drop, first look at leverage"
Ninety thousand two days ago, eighty-one thousand today, the slap in the face came quickly. But attributing this round of decline entirely to a value collapse might be misreading the target. Within 24 hours, over a billion dollars in positions were liquidated, long positions fell intensively; high leverage bets hit a critical support break, triggering a liquidation chain and a stampede of sell orders. What was cleared was leverage, not necessarily faith.
The $19 billion liquidation in October last year had funding rates annualized above 20%, making the market hot; this time it's about 7%, roughly one-ninth the intensity of the former. The cause of the drop is more macro: the Fed's September minutes were hawkish, December rate hike bets rose to 85%; 10-year US Treasury yields at 5.3%, oil prices at 104, inflation shadows linger, and risk assets are collectively under pressure.
Eighty thousand is a psychological barrier for short-term bulls. Holding it can be seen as a shakeout; breaking below it, liquidation orders near 75,000 may queue up. JPMorgan still expects about $50 billion inflow within the year, big money hasn't withdrawn, but short-term buyers are not rushing in.
In terms of operations, reducing leverage is a priority, no need to panic on spot. Selling caused by liquidations is passive margin removal, not active bearishness. After the liquidation wave passes, both chips and the market will be cleaner.The trend these days is like a manure spray, unstoppable, not even giving a rebound to wipe the mess.
ETH has plunged from 2807 to 2495, three consecutive bearish daily candles, EMA5, 10, and 20 all diverging downward, MACD green bars getting longer.
No bottom-fishing funds, no resistance, just a one-way smash down.
I opened a 100x short at 2727.54, now floating profit is 850%.
Honestly, seeing this number made my hand tremble a bit.
Last week I was still mocked for being stubborn, saying shorting against the trend was suicidal, now those voices are all gone.
The market has reached this point, the logic doesn't need to be repeated.
The rate hike cycle is bearish, liquidity tightens, high-tech stocks and crypto assets are the first to get hit.
After ETH broke below 2500, the next round number support is 2400. There might be a rebound in between, but the rebound is for a better drop.
I'm not greedy, but I don't plan to run either. This position is held very steadily because I know what I'm waiting for.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6% $BSP Watching the market obsessively gets annoying; turning it off actually makes things clearer, and my mind stays calm without staring at the screen.
Last night before bed, I glanced at BSP; the resistance above was obvious, every rally fell just short, selling pressure was strong, so I signaled a short.
From 41.43 down to 37.96, +83.27% gave the answer. It was really sluggish earlier, but the move turned out great.
Take profits on the big chunk first, keep 20% as a stop-loss at breakeven, let the rest run if it keeps dropping, don’t let profits turn uncomfortable.
The market cures all kinds of arrogance, especially from those who think they’re the smartest. Hold as long as the trend is intact, exit if it breaks, don’t fall in love with stocks. If you haven’t entered yet, wait for a pullback and reassess when a new structure forms.
$XRP $ZEC I looked at 29 coins. Only 12 projects have founders who never left and have been steering continuously.
I list them in order: (This is the first of 4 posts)
Sold or left
BTC: The last message from Satoshi Nakamoto was sent in 2011
DOGE: The founder sold in 2015 to buy a car
LTC: The founder sold everything in 2017
XRP: The co-founder sold 9 billion XRP
SHIB: The founder erased all traces and disappeared in 2022
XMR: The founder vanished in 2014
SUSHI: The founder ran off with $14 million, returned, then left
ZEC: The founder resigned from management in 2023
EOS: The founder left in 2021 (probably many newcomers don’t even know EOS now)
ATOM: The founder left and created a competing chain
I will list them in 4 posts, OK, the number of posts on this planet is limited, please see the next post.