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10/12 Daily Report
The "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine is inconsistent today.
Trump said both sides agreed, Zelensky also expressed support and said the Ukrainian military has received orders. But he had previously said he was unaware of this arrangement. Witkoff and Kushner have postponed their Moscow trip, waiting for the attitudes of Europe and Ukraine. British media also reported that the US threatened to cut off weapons supplies to Ukraine.
In the Middle East, the Houthis claimed to have launched four rounds of attacks on Saudi Arabia, targeting airports and energy facilities. US media said Saudi air defense interceptor missile stocks are insufficient, and regional sources said Saudi Arabia will not ceasefire with the Houthis before the Yemeni government recaptures lost territory.
The Iranian military said ships that close their navigation identification systems in the Strait of Hormuz will be considered hostile targets. Senior official Rezaei said the US accepted some conditions for partially reopening the strait, but other responses were insufficient. If fighting resumes, they will target regional cables and data centers.
Index 68, Greed, up from 58 on Friday.
#RussiaUkraine #MiddleEastSituation #StraitOfHormuz The supply side is quietly tightening, but demand has not yet awakened. BTC price is sideways, but changes are happening on the supply side.
$BTC: Exchange balances continue to drop to multi-year lows, long-term holders are locking their positions, and miners are not selling off massively. The circulating chips are decreasing, which is a typical bottom characteristic. However, demand is weak, ETF inflows are slowing, and OTC funds are watching. Supply tightening is a slow variable, and the price has not yet reflected it.
$ETH: The amount of staked locked tokens has hit a historic high, with over 30% of circulating supply locked. L2 is burning Gas, and the mainnet is continuously deflationary. The circulating supply is structurally shrinking, and once demand returns, the elasticity will be greater than expected. But currently, buying power is insufficient, so ETH can only passively fluctuate following the broader market.
$SOL: Inflation rate is gradually decreasing, staking rate remains high, and locked tokens within the ecosystem are increasing. However, tokens unlocked earlier are still being absorbed, so supply pressure has not been completely eliminated. On-chain activity is good, but lacking incremental funds, the price struggles to strengthen independently.
The supply side of all three coins is tightening, but demand has not yet awakened. Supply contraction is the seed; demand returning is the rain. Be patient until the wind comes. $STRK is getting stronger as it rises, so why focus more on the support?
$STRK is up +8.41% in 24 hours, currently priced at 0.12363. The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI are 58 and 95 respectively. The strength is real, and the crowding is real too. The question is not whether it can continue to rise, but who is willing to catch it on the first pullback.
Price levels are more honest than adjectives. The current price is about 17.81% above the 1-hour support at 0.10161 and about 2.32% below the resistance at 0.1265. Putting these two distances together helps to see which side requires more evidence. Looking only at the price change can easily mistake the space already traveled as space yet to start.
The bearish side also has clear invalidation lines. Breaking below the 1-hour support at 0.10161 indicates that short-term support has failed the test; if it continues to break the 4-hour support at 0.04797, the previous judgment of strength or recovery must be rewritten. You can hold your view, but you cannot pretend not to see when the evidence changes.
It’s easier to understand this market move as equipment acceptance testing: running without load doesn’t count as completion; stability under boundary conditions gives weight to the conclusion. Write your view as a condition so you know where you’re wrong if it fails. Which signal would you rather wait for to judge: is this a normal overheating of a strong trend, or has the risk already run ahead of the space? The market is volatile; the above is only an observation of the market and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Coin Circle Bull.NEAR surged from an old low of $NEAR 1.24 up to a peak of $5.96, trading at $5.84 (-0.91%) with a massive +314.62% gain over 180 days.
Short-Term: Watch support near $NEAR 5.17 (24h low). Holding this can trigger a retest of $5.95 (24h high).
All-Time Prediction: In a full bull run, NEAR could target $NEAR 10.00+. If support fails, expect a dip to $4.50.$ETH
Yo, the Ethereum Foundation's large top-up hasn't appeared for a long time 🤨
In the past 6 hours, its associated addresses have cumulatively sent 4393 ETH to #Kraken, worth about 11.13 million USD, with an average top-up price of $2534.
What's even more intriguing is — these two addresses received 59,751 ETH transferred from the Ethereum Foundation as early as 10 years ago.
So if this wave is indeed a sell-off, comparing to the past "Foundation selling coins always at stage highs" mystical script……
Could it be, it's about to come true again?👀First, note the position of $MAGIC, then discuss the view: current price 0.141, about 31.35% away from the 1-hour support at 0.0968, and about 4.11% away from the resistance at 0.1468.
The biggest concern for $MAGIC is not the price rise or fall, but that after a price move, participation hasn't kept up. The 1-hour and 4-hour are both slightly strong, with RSI at 61 and 59 respectively.
I only keep one confirmation for upward movement — breaking through 0.1468; and only one condition to negate upward movement — falling below 0.0968. Other fluctuations are considered noise for now.
If you had to pick one validation point first, would you watch for resistance confirmation or support breakdown?
The above is market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bull.#新手必看：这里有你需要的一切
What are dividend stocks, and does the crypto world have this concept?
Let's have a lesson. Dividend stocks are a concept from the traditional stock market, referring to stocks that regularly distribute company profits to shareholders, especially those with stable dividends and relatively high dividend yields.
Core characteristics of dividend stocks:
Companies are relatively mature in operation, with stable profits and cash flow, returning part of the profits to shareholders in the form of dividends.
Common forms: cash dividends (cash payouts) or bonus shares (stock dividends).
Investment logic leans more towards "high quality, low growth": relying on stable dividends + valuation recovery/slow growth, rather than high-growth stories.
They are common in both A-shares and U.S. stocks, typically banks, energy, utilities, and some consumer blue chips. Dividend yield is often an important stock selection indicator.
The crypto equivalent would be staking rewards, transaction fee dividends, DeFi mining, and other old-school mechanisms.
Traditional dividends come from the distribution of real company profits and are regulated by corporate law. ✅️
Most "yields" in crypto come from new token issuance, protocol fees, or incentives, many of which are essentially inflation/dilution rather than true profit dividends. Price volatility is usually much greater than traditional dividend stocks. ❎️BTC short-term again approaches the 84,000 mark, with funding rates indicating a bearish sentiment suggesting a "short squeeze" risk?
After last night's rapid surge, Bitcoin is currently consolidating near the high of 83,800, with the 15-minute chart again showing momentum toward 84,000. According to the OKEx market, 84,200 is the current strong resistance level.
Technically, the MA and EMA moving averages are highly entangled around 83,800, indicating intense contention between bulls and bears. The super trend support has moved up to 83,547; as long as this level holds, short-term bulls remain dominant. Notably, the market shows that current mainstream CEX and DEX funding rates indicate a bearish stance. This means many retail traders are shorting against the trend. If BTC can break through 84,200 with volume, it could easily trigger a short squeeze, forcing shorts to cover and pushing prices higher.
Although it has slightly dropped 1.7% in the past 7 days, the 90-day gain remains as high as 29.4%, so the overall trend is intact. In terms of trading, focus on the breakthrough at 84,200; if it fails to break after prolonged attempts, be cautious of a pullback to 83,000. Manage your positions well! $BTC $ETH $MAGIC #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 Trump announces Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire! $CL dropped to 89.8—is it a real ceasefire or just a smokescreen?
Brothers, Trump has unilaterally announced again—the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement is "effective immediately." But Russia has not confirmed it, and Zelensky says "still waiting for details." Does this episode sound familiar? He did the same on September 14, but the fighting continued regardless.
After the news, oil prices fell from 92.12 to 89.21, now at 89.80. Bollinger middle band is below 91.01, MACD shows a bearish crossover with expanding green bars, RSI is weak.
Trading strategy:
Buy on a pullback to stabilize between 89.3-89.8.
Short if it rebounds near 91.
Personal view:
The ceasefire was unilaterally announced by Trump; Russia hasn’t confirmed, and Ukraine is still waiting for details. This news is highly questionable. But the market sold off first, with bears taking advantage. 89.87 is the lower Bollinger band—watch if it holds here. If it holds, it’s a fake fall; if it breaks, it’s a real drop.
Remember, Trump’s "ceasefire" is a message for the market; Russia’s silence is the truth. Don’t rush to short. #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Conclusion first: OKX continues to batch list tokenized stocks this afternoon — 8 X-prefix spot tokens will preopen from 14:00 to 17:30, including IONQ (quantum computing), AMC, BlackBerry (BB), Quantum Corp (QNT), among others.
I counted, currently OKX spot market has listed over 90 X-prefix tokenized US stocks, basically covering Nasdaq and large-cap tech stocks. The batch of BRKB/WEN just listed last Friday hasn't heated up yet, and today they added 8 more, pushing aggressively.
A few points worth noting:
· IONQ and Quantum Corp (QNT): two quantum-related stocks listed at once; be careful not to confuse QNT with the crypto $QUANT
· AMC: the most meme-heavy in this batch, naturally familiar to the crypto community
· Tokenized stocks track US stock prices and basically trade sideways when US markets are closed; don't treat them like altcoins for speculation
$xIONQ $xAMC
Which one will you try first? The two quantum stocks or AMC? $LAB What exactly is this pump-and-dump scheme trying to do? Constantly stabbing down, the overall trend remains bearish. Still holding, not moving, watching the pump-and-dump show.
Extreme risk warning:
LAB is a highly manipulated coin, and on October 14th, 16.23 million tokens will be unlocked, which is a clear selling pressure event. At the same time, the end product was hacked, the team's manipulation history was exposed, and 70.8% of the supply is untracked—multiple negative factors combined.
Long-short ratio: Retail and whales are all stubbornly holding long positions.
Binance retail long-short ratio is as high as 4.9773, OKX retail long-short ratio is 5.95 (extremely frenzied, retail investors are crazily catching falling knives).
Whale side: The number of whales long-short ratio is 5.8681, and the whale position long-short ratio is as high as 2.146.
$BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ #俄罗斯放宽柴油出口，霍尔木兹风险仍支撑油价 Touched the middle band and got pushed back again — This week's inflation will set the direction
$BTC daily chart last night touched a high of 84177 (close to the Bollinger middle band around 83965) and then dropped directly back, current price about 83710, stuck between EMA20 (around 83210) and the middle band.
Daily view:
If it can't hold above 84000 / can't reclaim 84100: it's a false breakout, first watch 83530 → 83210, if broken then consider 82280 / 81700.
If volume expands and closes above 84100 and holds: only then can we talk about the upper range around 86000.
Don't chase longs or shorts before Wednesday's US inflation and Thursday's PPI; wait for the data to land on direction. $BTC $BTC bulls' profits are the shorts' losses
$BTC long positions total $1.84 billion.
Unrealized profit on the books is $38.9 million.
At the same time, shorts lost $20 million.
How is this calculated:
These two amounts are not earned separately.
What one side gains, the other side loses.
Longs have an unrealized profit of $38.9 million, shorts lost $20 million.
The $18.9 million difference in between is fees and positions not yet closed.
Who is placing orders here:
In the past period, $11.69 million sold, $7.85 million bought.
Sell orders exceed buy orders by $3.84 million.
This shows the price did rise, but active sellers have not stopped.
$ETH is the same, $10.82 million sold, $7.83 million bought.
Long-term holders see unrealized profits, not realized cash.
To realize this profit, someone must buy at the high price.
If no one buys, the $38.9 million is just a number on the screen.
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $ETH Single Coin Contract Fluctuation｜Last 15 Minutes
$W price rise accompanied by increased positions. Price +5.76%, open interest +4.27%; trading volume 2.669 million USDT, 2.8 times the 15-minute average volume converted from the previous hour.最近看$BTC 行情，发现一个挺值得琢磨的现象。 比特币在跌，原油价格受到关注，美债收益率也成了市场讨论的焦点。 乍一看，这几件事好像没什么关系，但仔细想想，还真能串起来。🤔 为什么油价上涨，BTC反而可能承压？ 其实背后有一条经济逻辑： 📌 第一步：原油上涨 油价上涨可能推高运输、生产成本，进而增加通胀压力。 📌 第二步：美联储面临压力 如果通胀迟迟降不下来，美联储就可能维持较高利率，甚至重新考虑紧缩政策。 📌 第三步：资金开始重新选择 当美债收益率走高，部分资金可能更愿意持有收益相对稳定的资产，而不是承担BTC的价格波动。 说白了，不是BTC突然不值钱了，而是资金的机会成本可能变高了。 💡 不过，我觉得还有一点特别重要。 油价上涨不代表BTC一定下跌，美债收益率上升也不是唯一原因。 市场最终怎么走，还得看实际通胀数据、资金流向和交易情绪。 尤其是截图里提到的原油供应变化，更需要持续核实，不能仅凭一条消息就判断行情反转。 我现在更关心的，不是BTC什么时候反弹，而是影响它下跌的压力有没有真正缓解。 毕竟价格反弹容易看到，背后的资金逻辑才值得研究。 👇 兄弟们，你们觉得这波Those who think the market has stabilized and is about to surge are very likely to fall into a trap.
The market has slightly rebounded, and many friends have already started to feel optimistic, believing a new round of upward trend has begun. But a set of capital data hides a different signal.
Recently, related target funds have been continuously flowing out, with several leading institutional products facing redemptions for multiple consecutive days, and the scale of weekly capital withdrawal hitting a new phase high. Many large funds are quietly exiting, yet many retail investors are still entering during the slight rebound. Institutions are making their stance clear through actions, but market sentiment is still fantasizing about a recovery.
Looking back at the market pattern, this rebound is relatively weak; the price has not yet reached the key resistance line before being pressured again. Trading volume continues to shrink; the higher it goes, the weaker the buying power becomes. Such a rebound is not a trend reversal but more like a brief consolidation.
A large amount of previously trapped chips are piled up above, creating heavy pressure. Every small rally only creates an exit opportunity for those previously trapped and accumulates strength for subsequent pullbacks.
I have been holding short positions arranged at high levels and have already gained a good profit. In terms of strategy, if the rebound reaches the resistance zone later, consider lightly positioning short orders with stop-loss set above the key resistance level. The first target is the recent low point; once broken, there is even more room below.
Do not go against the trend and fight large funds; institutions always obtain information faster than ordinary investors. Important economic data is about to be released, and market volatility will further increase. Manage your positions well and avoid blindly chasing the rise. $XRP news didn't make much splash, let's first look at the middle of the range
There are reports that the XRP Ledger Foundation clarified misunderstandings about the security fix, saying the vulnerability did not involve XRP inflation, and the patch was driven by community consensus, but this hasn't been verified yet. My first reaction was to see if the price would acknowledge it, but in the last 15 minutes it only rose 0.14%, basically unchanged. If the market really took this news as positive, it shouldn't be this calm.
Now the price is stuck in the middle between the high and low points of the past few hours, 1.4139 to 1.4006 USDT, with the just closed 5-minute candle at 1.4069 USDT. I prefer to see this as a period of directionless consolidation rather than a news-driven breakout. Since volume hasn't obviously increased either, I won't chase longs just because of this news for now.#俄罗斯放宽柴油出口，霍尔木兹风险仍支撑油价
Russia has relaxed diesel exports, temporarily increasing refined oil supply and somewhat suppressing diesel prices, which is a phase of easing news.
However, the key point is that the total additional supply is limited and unlikely to offset the shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz. A large volume of crude oil and refined products worldwide must be transported through this strait, and the geopolitical premium caused by unstable passage remains, so the downside support for oil prices has not disappeared.
Oil prices directly affect inflation expectations and U.S. Treasury yields, indirectly transmitting to the crypto market. Continued strength in oil prices will reinforce high interest rate expectations, suppressing risk assets like BTC.
Trading strategy: Do not simply short crude oil just because supply is easing. Keep contracts light and focus on tanker traffic data in the strait and U.S. Treasury yields. If conflicts in the strait reoccur, oil prices will rebound quickly, driving market sentiment volatility. $MAGIC and $GRASS both made it onto the volatility list today, driven by contract funds pushing the market. MAGIC rose 118% over the week, and GRASS has already broken through its previous high.
1. MAGIC: Up 40% in 24 hours. On October 11, a 4-hour candlestick surged directly from 0.098 to 0.124, followed by 5 consecutive bullish candlesticks. However, despite the new price high, trading volume was 28% lower than the previous day. Contracts are pushing up while spot is selling off, indicating the short-term rally is nearing its peak. You can wait for a pullback to 0.123-0.127 or 0.116. Only if it holds above 0.1474 without breaking on the pullback is it suitable to consider following.
2. GRASS is currently at 0.88, up 25% in 24 hours, just breaking past the previous high of 0.819. There is little resistance above except at 0.90. Short-term funds are driving the price up; wait for a pullback to 0.84-0.85. If it falls below 0.83, this rally will be over.
The contract-driven rally rises sharply but falls quickly as well. Appearing on the volatility list only means funds are entering, not that it is a good time to buy now.弹簧方向揭晓：向上。 10月11日（周日）以77亿放量突破微中枢上沿83,093，最高 84,111——152小时压缩后的第一击就打入HVN铁幕（83,650-84,350）内部；今日周一早盘跳空，1.5小时Delta +2.41亿（超过周日全天），当前83,678已杀入铁幕腹地，正面对决POC 84,050。昨日布局的82,198破位空单已按计划止损（83,550），纪律兑现；D浪剧本正式接棒。 一、道氏理论（Dow Theory） 下降序列被破坏，短期趋势转多： 周日84,111的放量上攻一次性收复两个道氏关键位——83,339（10-8前反应高点）与83,650（铁幕下沿），道氏"高点降低"序列正式终结。同时，10月9日以来的低点链82,198→82,469→82,716→82,930→83,196→83,620（今晨跳空缺口）持续抬高，"低点抬升"完整。道氏短期趋势判定：转为上升。 剩余考验： 道氏中期反转需收复84,400（铁幕上沿+10-2/10-5平台）。当前83,678位于铁幕内部——向上突破84,400=道氏中期转多确认（D浪成立，看86,850）；在铁幕内受阻回落跌$BTC 【This ID's View】BTC 30-Minute Level Analysis--》
After the recent major drop, a low-level recovery phase has emerged. Currently, the price has risen above the secondary purple consolidation zone. In the short term, bulls have taken the initiative, but there is still pressure from the previous large consolidation zone above. This is a low-level rebound phase and cannot yet be directly judged as a reversal; there will be considerable oscillation and tug-of-war.
Chan Theory Structure
Previously, from the high point of 86698, a complete downward segment formed. After hitting the low of 80393, the downward momentum ended. Then a 30-minute secondary purple consolidation zone was constructed. The price moved upward away from this zone and the pullback did not fall back into the consolidation zone, forming a preliminary pattern of the third buy in the consolidation. The key now is to observe whether this newly formed upward segment can continue. If it falls back into the purple consolidation zone, the third buy fails and the market will return to a consolidation phase.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation
After the bottom low, volume expanded during the rally phase, indicating bottom-fishing funds entering and pushing the price up; during subsequent pullbacks, volume shrank significantly, showing limited selling pressure release. However, when hitting the upper resistance, volume did not sustain a breakout, indicating large funds are not aggressively chasing highs. The trapped positions above remain, so the rally is prone to back-and-forth oscillation and shakeouts.
Entry & Stop Loss
If the pullback does not break below the upper edge of the secondary consolidation zone, consider trying to go long with the trend; if the upward rally meets resistance and volume does not keep up, be cautious of pressure-induced pullbacks. Place stop loss for long attempts at the lower edge of the secondary consolidation zone. If the price falls back into the consolidation zone, abandon the bullish idea immediately.$BTC This is the transition of Bitcoin's two-cycle bull and bear structure. In a bear market, you only need to short at highs with low leverage on a large scale; in a bull market, go long with low leverage. Both require good stop-loss management. Reducing attention to the market actually makes making money less difficult.
A common mistake many beginners make is hoping to find a perfect entry point, but in both bull and bear markets, the main players often like to front-run. When everyone is waiting for that perfect buy or sell point, the market often disappoints and it never arrives.
The red arrow represents the failure of the weekly-level bullish structure. At this point, you should not think about going long or continuing to buy spot. Instead, push from the large scale down to smaller scales to identify areas for short positions. When entering, set a good stop-loss. This stop-loss doesn't have to be rigid; for example, I use the weekly closing price as a reference to decide whether it is a false breakout or false breakdown before making further decisions.
The rocket position indicates that the large-scale timeframe has broken through the bear market structure, and the daily chart no longer makes new lows. From large to small scales, an institutional reversal has formed. Your next move is to control your position size and leverage, enter long at what you consider key points, allowing for 1-2 stop-losses, but do not avoid opening positions out of fear.
Once you catch the stage low, the previously stopped-out trades can be recovered, but the premise is that you must be brave.
Bravery in trading is based on correct logic and the judgment of entry and exit points in the trading system, not recklessly going all-in on some altcoin. That is not bravery; that is foolishness.$BTC is oscillating narrowly near the 83000 level, currently reported around 83000. It has dropped 4.1% cumulatively over the past week, with an intraday low of 80427, marking a recent low point. It has been under continuous pressure after failing to hold above 87000. ETH is weakening in sync; the spot ETF has seen net outflows for 9 consecutive trading days, totaling $635 million outflows this month.
Sentiment shows mixed signals. The Fear and Greed Index rose to 69, a significant rebound of 8 points from yesterday's 61, returning to the greed zone, but prices remain suppressed by short-term moving averages, showing a clear divergence between sentiment and price trends. Approximately $167 million worth of liquidations occurred across the network in 24 hours, with short liquidations at $115 million and long liquidations only $52.02 million. Shorts are being squeezed about 2.2 times more than longs, with BTC short liquidations at $35.08 million, nearly 6 times that of longs. Funding rates remain low, and long leverage is not excessively accumulated.
Capital pressure continues. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a cumulative net outflow of $386.3 million in the first 7 trading days of October, with a total outflow of $678.9 million last week. On October 7 alone, $484.9 million flowed out, the largest single-day outflow since June. BlackRock's IBIT led with a single-day outflow of $207.7 million, followed by Fidelity's FBTC with $105.1 million outflows. On Friday, ETFs slightly rebounded by $21.1 million, indicating institutional funds "stopped the bleeding" but have not yet replenished.
From a technical perspective, 83000 is a key watershed in this round of movement, coinciding with the average ETF buy-in cost and historical technical highs. Regaining this level could lead to tests of 84000 to 85000. Around 77000, on-chain accumulation signals appear, with short-term holders' cost around 74000 and the 200-day moving average near 72000, forming a lower support band. The core variables this week are the September CPI data to be released on October 14 and whether ETF funds can shift from outflows to sustained inflows. These two signals will determine if the current consolidation range will be broken.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ Consolidation continues, chips are changing hands: Bitcoin and Ethereum market analysis
Bitcoin is currently around $84,000, Ethereum has rebounded to near $2,550, with 24-hour gains of about 1.2% and 1.7% respectively. On the surface, it looks like a rebound, but behind it is a typical consolidation — a sharp drop creates panic, forcing weak holders to give up their chips, while funds are picked up below, raising the holding cost.
On-chain data confirms: total exchange $BTC balance has dropped to about 2.68 million coins, the lowest since September 2023. A large amount of chips have flowed out of exchanges into cold wallets or long-term holders, signaling that the consolidation is nearing its end.
Short-term pressure remains. In the first week of October, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $679 million, and Ethereum ETFs have had net outflows for 9 consecutive days; long-term holders transferred in about 32,000 BTC. However, the $84,000 to $85,000 range is the largest price cluster, with about 53% of funds entering above this level; once broken through, most holders will turn profitable.
If $ETH falls below $2,412, it will trigger liquidations of about $635 million in long positions; breaking above $2,655 will face short position pressure.
The essence of consolidation is to let bottom chips exit and bullish chips rebuild positions at higher levels. Exchange balances are declining, and the greed index has risen to 69, indicating an improvement in chip structure and that upward resistance is being absorbed.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ 表面都在涨，底下其实各走各的 这波反弹，真的算"底部"了吗？ 我盯着这三根线看了一会儿，第一反应不是兴奋，是有点想笑。BTC 约 82,900，ETH 约 2,500，SOL 还在承压区挣扎，看起来是齐刷刷翻红，但节奏完全不在一个频道上。热闹是表面的，结构才是真相 🌙 先说这波反弹的性质。它更像一次情绪修复，而不是趋势反转的确认信号。市场在交易的是"跌得够多了，先喘口气"，而不是"基本面变了，可以追了"。这两者的区别，决定了你该用什么姿势参与。 BTC 这边的关键位很清楚。82,000 是短线必须守住的支撑，只有重新拿回 84,500，才有资格去谈 87,000 的进攻空间。换句话说，现在的上涨还在"修复"范畴里，没到"进攻"那一步。它仍然是整个市场的方向盘，它不稳，别的都别想稳。 ETH 看的是弹性。2,440 到 2,470 是它必须站稳的区域，只有突破 2,560，这波拉升才算有点说服力。问题是，ETH 现在更像跟随者，不是发起者。它能不能补涨，取决于 BTC 给不给空间，而不是它自己有多想涨。 SOL 最诚实。它近期一直在承压，短线要更谨慎，重点看能不能收回 113。如果继续Compliance infrastructure is accelerating, but on-exchange funds are playing "flash moves." The market is slightly up and down, but the underlying logic is undergoing extreme fragmentation.
$BTC: The compliance track is accelerating its deployment. The Moscow Exchange plans to launch regulated crypto trading, which means global traditional financial infrastructure is incorporating crypto assets into standard frameworks. The long-term logic is extremely strong, but the slight market dip indicates that the benefits of compliance infrastructure are a "slow variable," unable to solve the near-term thirst for incremental on-exchange funds.
$ETH: An awkward period lacking independent narrative. The market is sideways, and even news about Zcash's quantum-resistant upgrade is stealing the spotlight. ETH's underlying technology is still being optimized, but it lacks a core catalyst to ignite on-exchange sentiment. Without major capital cooperation, it can only passively follow the market and becomes a beta asset.
$SOL: Funds are playing an extreme rotation game. Ansem publicly emphasized that "capturing rotation and timely profit-taking are equally important." This directly reveals the current survival rule: in a stock game lacking systemic trends, highly elastic SOL is a tool for funds to seek alpha returns. You must enter and exit quickly; holding on stubbornly is like riding a roller coaster.
Macro infrastructure is laying the long road, while on-exchange funds are cutting each other short-term. Don't use the mindset of holding spot assets rigidly to fight the current rotation rhythm. Recognize the short-term speculative nature of assets and cash out timely to survive in a volatile market. On-chain buying pressure is strong, but the price of $GSTOCK hasn't shown a significant increase? Let's look at the data together and you'll understand why!
2026.10.12 #GSTOCK Top 40 token holder address data changes
alpha: Inflow of 9.41 million tokens
New entries in top 40: 4 people total, 3 increased positions, 1 opened a new position
Dropped out of top 40: 4 people total, 3 transferred to Binance, 1 reduced position
Top 40 increased positions: 5 people total
Top 40 reduced positions: 1 person total
GSTOCK Daily Key Summary:
This time, 4 addresses newly entered the top 40, all 4 made real on-chain purchases, with 1 person increasing their on-chain holdings significantly. Among those who dropped out of the top 40, 3 transferred to Binance, and only 1 reduced their holdings partially. The on-chain reduction data is not large. Among the top 40 addresses increasing and reducing positions, the number of people increasing positions is higher and the quantity is also larger; reductions are almost negligible. Five days after Binance alpha, only 9 million tokens flowed in. From the data, the market has now stabilized, and data fluctuations are no longer as large as before. On-chain, the number of buyers exceeds the number of sellers not only in quantity but also in number of people, but looking at the price, it hasn't risen much, proving that alpha selling pressure can counterbalance on-chain buying, resulting in the token price consolidating sideways. That's roughly the data. In this market full of sharp moves, GSTOCK is now consolidating. Does it still have a chance to rise on the contract? Single kill will continue to monitor subsequent data and update immediately if there is any situation!Let's look at some news
Linea mainnet bridge has connected over 1.36 million $ETH, 1.32 million transactions, and 590,000 addresses. The data looks impressive, but don't just focus on the "locked assets narrative."
Here are my three points: First, a high ETH bridge inflow does not equal real ecosystem accumulation; you need to look at TVL, stablecoins, and DEX/lending activity;
Second, whether the number of transactions and addresses is sustained matters; valuation is determined only after airdrop expectations fade and retention is confirmed;
Third, ConsenSys resources are strong, but the ZK track is competitive, with OP, Base, and Starknet all vying for liquidity.
Conclusion: Linea's fundamentals are gaining momentum, but coin price/ecosystem opportunities are event-driven; wait for the airdrop, token, and roadmap implementation before deciding.
Don't get caught up in the 1.36 million ETH hype in the short term
Ethereum is still hovering around 2500
$BTC
$ZEC
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ 4-hour long-short ratio slightly favors longs, yet short positions are being annihilated? The truth behind the dual long-short liquidation of BTC/ETH/HYPE
HYPE, BTC, and ETH all slightly favor longs, but the gap between longs and shorts is minimal (3%-8%), indicating the market is in a typical "balanced game + high volatility shakeout" state.
Core long-short ratio breakdown (4-hour cycle)
HYPE: The most contested long-short ratio, with OKX showing a clear long bias
Overall: Long 51.5% / Short 48.5%; OKX: Long 53.4% / Short 46.6%. No extreme altcoin sentiment yet, OKX longs slightly dominant.
BTC: Evenly split, a tug-of-war between whales and retail traders
Overall: Long 51.3% / Short 48.7%; OKX: Long 51.6% / Short 48.4%. The difference is only 2.6%-3.2%, matching the scenario of "Big Brother Maji's 600 million short position floating loss" versus retail long positions.
ETH: Strongest long bias, shorts have been heavily liquidated
Overall: Long 52.4% / Short 47.6%; OKX: Long 54.2% / Short 45.8%. Coupled with the previous 12-hour short liquidation (ETH shorts liquidated 25.25 million), remaining longs also face volatility tests.
The underlying logic of "slightly favoring longs" yet "short positions being wiped out"
Long-short ratio ≠ profit-loss ratio. The proportion of long and short participants is balanced, but short positions (such as 10-50x high leverage) trigger cascading liquidations with slight upward moves; meanwhile, OKX longs are more aggressive (all three assets show higher long ratios than overall), and short-term (1-hour) longs also face instant liquidations.BTC, тем временем, также получил свою третью метку потенциального хая на недельном ТФ. Не Strong, но тем не менее. Для осознания важности этого сигнала хватит вспомнить, что в последний раз такие метки были у актива в августе 2025, вблизи ATH прошлого бычьего рынка. Несмотря на отскок воскресения, остаемся при своем ожидании, что коррекция стартовала. Переход цены в устойчивый аптренд на 3- и 4-часовом ТФ ставит это ожидание под сомнение. Но пока цена удерживает устойчивый даунтренд на 12- и 18-BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of nearly $700 million last week, with a single-day outflow hitting the largest since June
Institutions are reducing positions, don't rush to catch the falling knife
$STRK surged over 50% in one day, StarkWare declares going solo as Layer1
Over 100 million tokens unlocking on the 15th, the narrative is strong but selling pressure is real
Wednesday's CPI is the last test before the rate decision, controlling your moves before the release is most important
$BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ In the past 72 hours, the market has been like a turnover: whales are buying spot, leverage is being forcibly liquidated, and prices continue to decline. The contradictions are only superficial.
1. Buying
According to ali_charts, in the past 72 hours whales have increased holdings by about 15,000 BTC, 166,000 ETH, and 45 million XRP; this batch of BTC is worth about $1.245 billion. Strategy holds about 848,000 BTC. Bitwise saw a net inflow of $10.55 million when XRP dropped to $1.43.
2. Selling pressure
In 24 hours, liquidations totaled $1.339 billion, with $1.18 billion long positions; 166,000 accounts were forcibly liquidated, nearly 90% were long. An ETH whale was liquidated of 28,720 long positions at $2,420, and bought back half an hour later by adding margin.
3. Funding rates
BTC 8-hour average funding rate is about -0.0044%, BN about -0.00215%, a 9-month low. Shorts pay longs. The crowded longs with over 20% annualized returns from last October have retreated, and liquidation intensity is about one-ninth of the same period last year.
4. Macro
On October 14 CPI, October 15 PPI and retail sales will be released simultaneously. PPI is expected at 0.6%, higher than 0.4% in August. The probability of a rate hike in October is priced at 17.7%, and the probability of a 25bp hike in December exceeds 60%. The 10-year US Treasury yield is about 5.25%. The preliminary Michigan confidence index is 46.3, a five-month low.
5. Response
There is support at the whale cost zone, but leverage has not been fully cleared and data has not yet materialized. Watch whether BTC can hold the 80,000 level after CPI, and whether buying can spread from whales to ETFs and retail investors. On Sunday night, I came across a post where Trump said on social media: Russia and Ukraine are entering an "energy ceasefire" immediately, saying both sides have agreed, and added "don't break it."
But not a single word of the terms was disclosed, and the Russian side has not acknowledged it yet. Zelensky's first reaction was "this is news to me too," then he changed his tone, saying Ukraine supports it, the armed forces have already received orders, and are just waiting for details from the US side.
On the day the ceasefire was called, the sky did not stop. Drones and glide bombs continued to strike energy facilities over Ukraine, and a thermal power plant was bombed right after the announcement.
This is not new. He announced it once on September 14, but both sides kept fighting afterward.
Looking back two days earlier: On October 9, the US just allowed Russian diesel imports, and on the 10th said Ukraine "should change its president." Zelensky responded by calling it "investing in war."
Anyone who drives sports cars knows, when the passenger says "almost there," you still have to check the real-time traffic on the navigation. The timetable spoken and the progress on the road often don't match.
The market is tied to the energy line, facilities are still being hit, and oil prices contain a layer of risk premium; if it really stops, this layer will gradually dissipate. Right now, it's just one-sided talk, so I treat it as sentiment. Personal record sharing, not investment advice. Bitcoin's 4-hour RSI is currently at 57, not yet close to the overbought zone. The 1-hour RSI entered overbought territory but then pulled back.
Focus on observing the bearish pressure on the 3-day moving average and whether the daily chart needs to enter oversold territory to complete its adjustment.
Also watch if the 4-hour chart will crash and trigger a decline when approaching overbought levels, thereby fulfilling the 3-day candlestick's task handed over to the daily chart.
This is a chain reaction.
Although the larger timeframe favors Bitcoin's upward trend, with future prices expected above 200,000, we still have to face these fluctuations in the short term.
Today, observe whether the 4-hour chart can trigger a crash and decline near the overbought position. $XAU 【10.12 Short-term Strategy】
Trump unilaterally declared an "energy ceasefire," causing gold prices to make a strong rebound and break above the 4200 level, but with a strong dollar and high US Treasury yields, there is still considerable pressure on gold's upward movement.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart remains in a downtrend channel, the 4-hour chart shows volume breakout above previous highs, the 1-hour moving averages are irregularly ordered, and the short-term cycle has not yet accelerated.
In summary, the intraday consolidation pattern remains unchanged.
Resistance above: 4210-15, 4227-30, 4245-48
Support below: 4183-85, 4168-70, 4142-45
During the day session, short-term trading should focus on the above range for long and short participation. The morning trade at 4210 has already attempted a short position, with short-term targets at 4190/72 10.12 XAUUSD Asia-Europe Session Strategy
4210-4226 is a key 4-hour resistance zone; a valid breakout will turn the 4-hour trend bullish.
You can try light short positions with a stop loss set at a valid 4-hour close above 4226 The Central Bank of Argentina has sent a signal: crypto assets will not enter the banking payment system.
To put it simply, ordinary people buying coffee with USDT is fine, but banks wanting to integrate crypto payments are out of the question. Previously, many people loudly proclaimed that Argentina was fully embracing crypto, but now it's clear that what they are embracing is grassroots self-protection, not integration of crypto with traditional finance.
This blocks the narrative of "crypto + banking," but the current market focus wasn't on that anyway. The market cap is fluctuating around 84,000, ETFs are seeing outflows, and U.S. Treasury yields at 5.6% are suppressing off-exchange funds.
So this kind of news is not worth changing any position decisions over. Hold spot positions, keep contracts short, and keep U. $BTC😮 Shorts have been squeezed for two consecutive days, but in the last hour, the ones getting hit have switched to longs.
BTC stands above 83,600, up 0.75% in 24 hours, range 82,800–84,200.
24-hour liquidations reached 164 million, with 57,319 people liquidated, 1.3 times more than yesterday.
In the 12-hour window, shorts accounted for 74.5%, all being squeezed.
But switching to the last 1 hour, longs accounted for 75.7%.
The short squeeze just ended, and now those chasing longs are getting hit.
MAGIC is up 47.7% in a single day, NEAR +9.8%, altcoins continue to rise in rotation.
Big brother MAGIC has 40x shorts on 243 BTC, with unrealized profit of 260,000 dollars;
On the other side, HYPE has 5x shorts on 230,000 tokens, with unrealized loss of 4.86 million. Making money on one side, losing on the other.
Trading volume expanded 15% to 52.6 billion, ETF daily net value down 3.6 million, money hasn't returned.
I've been out of the market for several days, haven't dared to catch this short squeeze.
The rise pushed by short covering disappears after the cover is done; direction depends on Wednesday's CPI.
Personal review, not investment advice.
Do you think this is the end of the short squeeze, or a pre-CPI surge?
$BTC $ETH $MAGIC #CPIandPPIReleaseUpcoming, interest rate hike expectations face a test🟡 黄金晨报（XAUUSD） 现货金价：4212.83 美元/盎司｜截至09:08 前两日走势：周五金价收涨1.17%报4,193美元后，今日亚市早盘高开高走突破4,200整数关口，最新报4,212.83（+0.53%），盘中最高触及4,216.91；自周三两个月低点4,066以来连续第四日反弹、累计回升约147美元，纽约金期货同步走强报4,231.7（+0.37%）；国内金饰价格持稳（周大福1,265元/克）。 技术面：RSI约58转强，MACD零轴下方金叉红柱放大，MA5/10/20空头排列修复中，短线分水岭4,200；下方支撑4,150/4,100/4,066，上方压力4,233/4,280/4,300。 宏观面：地缘冲突持续+美债收益率从高位回落支撑避险买盘，突破4,200后技术性买盘跟进；瑞银预计12月金价达4,600美元、高盛维持年底4,900美元；美元指数仍偏强限制涨幅；本周美国CPI与美联储官员讲话为短线关键变量。 结论：金价放量突破4,200关口打开上行空间，站稳4,200看4,233-4,280；若地缘缓和或美元走强则回踩4,150-4,180支撑，中期机构目标4🚨 50 days, from 800U to 78,350U, and now down to just 400U! The crypto world has taught me the most expensive lesson!
📉 You think you're a trading genius, but actually the market just hasn't exposed you yet.
If someone asked me, what was the biggest takeaway from these 50 days?
I would tell them: it’s not about how much money I made, but finally knowing exactly what I’m really capable of.
From 800U all the way up to 78,350U, during that time, I truly thought I had found the secret to wealth. Watching my account keep rising, I even started dreaming about buying a new car, improving my life, feeling like I was just one step away from turning things around.
But what’s the reality?
Now there’s only 400U left.
Especially with $ZEC, the market these past few days has pulled me back from fantasy to reality. What once seemed like an easily reachable goal now looks more like a dream I woke up from too late.
What’s the most ironic thing?
When making money, I thought it was skill; when losing money, I realized I never really learned how to manage risk.
28 days of profits made me more and more confident, and I gradually forgot how dangerous the market really is. I kept increasing my position size, getting bolder, always thinking the next wave would bring more gains.
Until a pullback hit, and I realized the profits I made before didn’t mean I truly mastered the market.
When the market goes up, everyone thinks they’re an expert.
When the market reverses, only then do you see who really has discipline.
😂 Lost another 100U yesterday.
And now I can even comfort myself: at least I didn’t lose more today!
At this rate, am I going to... According to EmberCN, the Ethereum Foundation's old wallet has moved again: 59,000 ETH collected 10 years ago is occasionally transferred to exchanges in batches. This time, 4,393 ETH (about 11.13 million USD) went into Kraken. Don't rush to call it a dump—the foundation's coin sales are a regular event, funding research reports and development expenses. The real signal is: they chose to sell at this position.Russia has relaxed diesel exports, moving from verbal statements to policy actions. But this relaxation has specific limits; don't interpret it as the export gates being fully opened.
According to Russian government sources and RBC reports, the arrangement effective from October 10 allows the supply of 500,000 tons of diesel to the global market at this stage. This limited quota is more noteworthy than the vague claim that "Russia has resumed exports." The market has received some supply relief, but whether this can continue depends on new information.
Everyone hopes for lower oil prices, as transportation, agriculture, and daily purchases are all bearing costs. However, a single permit only addresses how much is allowed to be sold this time; from contracting, shipping to inventory replenishment, there is still actual work ahead, so it cannot be directly taken as a guarantee of continuous monthly supply.
The risk in the Strait of Hormuz adds another layer of pressure. Supplying more diesel in other regions cannot solve the transit issues for all vessels. If buyers still have to pay higher costs due to transportation uncertainties, the benefits brought by policy relaxation may be partially offset.
I am willing to give this news a positive evaluation, but I will not yet expand it to mean the energy crisis is resolved. The next step is to see if the quota will be increased and if deliveries will continue. Rather than hearing another bigger promise, I want to see the next batches of cargo arrive as scheduled.
#俄罗斯放宽柴油出口，霍尔木兹风险仍支撑油价 Seeing “institutional positioning” and interpreting it as a group of large funds holding on with you to the end is a sure way to suffer losses.
CME previously introduced Bitcoin cash arbitrage trading: traders look for opportunities by exploiting the price difference between spot and futures. Holding spot or spot ETFs while establishing short positions on the futures side is one possible strategy. The buying records are real, but the entire set of trades does not necessarily bet on a one-sided price increase.
This certainly does not prove that all recent ETF funds are arbitraging, nor can it be used to explain every price drop. It just reminds us that when we see the buying half, we should not automatically assume the institutions are “firmly bullish” without sufficient evidence.
Long-term allocators, spread funds, and liquidity providers have different goals and exit conditions. Some are willing to wait years, others will close positions as soon as the spread narrows. Calling them all institutions sounds like a large lineup but does not reveal how long the funds will stay.
I remain interested in the long-term logic of BTC. To explain the pressure, we must also consider spot demand, hedging, and adjustments to existing positions; we cannot rely on a single buying list as the answer. The most frustrating thing is thinking you have found a long-term partner, only to find they have long written their exit conditions and may even have another position offsetting losses when prices fall.
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ $ZEC Key On-Chain Signal: Whales Accumulate Against the Trend, This Is Interesting, The Overall Direction Is Still Bullish
A certain whale bought and withdrew a total of 26,070 ZEC from Binance and Kraken within minutes, worth 31.93 million USD, including 17,770 ZEC withdrawn from Binance (21.76 million USD) and 8,300 ZEC withdrawn from Kraken (10.17 million USD).
This address has been aggressively accumulating since mid-September, paused buying near the $1,700 peak, then resumed buying during the price drop in October, increasing holdings from 24,000 to 54,400 ZEC, valued at about 66.75 million USD.
Long-Short Ratio: Retail investors are extremely bearish, while whales firmly hold long positions.
Binance retail long-short ratio is 0.7001, OKX retail long-short ratio is 0.76.
For whales: the number of whales long-short ratio is 0.7286, but the whales' position long-short ratio is as high as 1.5207.
Risk Reminder:
Pay attention to the NU7 mainnet activation decision on October 20. If unexpected delays or testing issues occur, it may trigger sharp short-term volatility. Short positions must have strict stop-loss settings.
$BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ The new listing prices on rental websites have changed, but the housing costs in the CPI may not immediately follow suit. Looking at inflation this week, I want to first remind you of this less eye-catching issue.
At 20:30 Beijing time on October 14, the September CPI will be released, and the PPI on the 15th. The BLS housing statistics note mentions that the same sample housing usually collects rent data every six months. It aims to measure the actual rent burden on households, which differs from just looking at market quotes for newly signed contracts in terms of observation targets and update frequency.
Seeing rental websites say the market is cooling and then assuming the next core CPI will definitely drop sharply can easily lead to miscalculating the time lag; and when the CPI housing component is still relatively strong, those signing new leases today may not all be bearing the same increase.
"One number decides the end of rate hikes" sounds satisfying, but I dare not make such a judgment. Different items in the statistics change at different speeds, and policy decisions must also consider whether the changes can be sustained. Going all-in before the release? That would be betting away even these time lags.
I will read the housing component separately from other service prices and then look at changes over several consecutive months. If one item slows down, there is no need to immediately shout out of control; if one item drops quickly, don’t rush to celebrate a complete victory. What I fear more this week is that as soon as the headline pops up, the judgment is already made.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $BTC
Yesterday's condition of "pulling back after a high of 83300, short again if the rebound fails" did not occur. Last night it broke through 83500, then stayed above it for 4 consecutive hours, with a low pullback to 83224 but recovered afterward.
Currently around 83900, the next 1–3 days are biased towards continued rebound. Today, wait for a pullback to go long, do not chase the rise.
1. Structure is strengthening, but this wave still has some filling components
The daily and 4-hour candles have both closed back above EMA21. However, within the same 24-hour window, price rose about 1.2%, while open interest dropped about 1.8%, showing characteristics of short covering, so it cannot be directly considered as continuous long accumulation.
Last night, the Russia-Ukraine "energy ceasefire" news boosted risk appetite, but the news does not mean a full ceasefire has been achieved.
2. Buy on pullback, do not chase near 84000
Focus on 83300–83500, which is near the breakout pullback zone and the 4-hour EMA7. After the pullback, if the 1-hour candle stops falling and closes back above 83400, consider a light long position.
Stop loss at 82500, target first to take profits in batches at 85000, then look at 86500. If the 4-hour candle closes below 83100, cancel this long route.
After closing back above 83500, do not force yesterday's short strategy onto today. The direction can follow structural changes, but entry still requires waiting for the right position. Since October, the combined net outflow of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the US has been nearly $1 billion. Bitcoin once fell below $81,000, triggering about $1.1 billion in liquidations, with approximately 55,000 BTC transferred to exchanges. However, on October 9, XRP was the only ETF in the entire market with a net inflow (about $8 million, all going into Franklin's XRPZ). Whether this lone survivor can continue remains to be seen next week. $ETH Last night my hand trembled slightly when setting the stop loss, and this morning I realized it was an unnecessary act of caution.
Before going to bed last night, I saw ETH pull back and hold steady, buying pressure strengthening, and the market hadn't fully started yet, so I suggested trying a long position. Entered at 2,502.55 with a clearly set stop loss, which actually made me feel secure.
This morning when I checked the market, the price had already reached 2,543.74, with a floating profit of +164.43%. This gain feels good. The earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly satisfying.
Don't lose patience in the consolidation phase and then try to regain dignity in a one-sided move.
Hold on if the trend is intact, exit if it breaks, don't fall in love with your position.
I've already taken 70% profit, moved the stop to the cost price for the remaining 30%. Let profits run if it continues up, and don't let gains become uncomfortable if it pulls back. For friends who haven't entered yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, and I'll notify you immediately.
$ADA $SOL ZEC outlook for today
Intraday range 1220 — 1299, current price 1273. A short-term rebound rally is underway, with the price gradually approaching the upper range high. Short-term bullish momentum is somewhat released, and upper resistance is gradually emerging. This rise is a corrective rebound; the long-term bearish pattern has not been completely reversed. It is not advisable to blindly chase longs at high levels; wait for a chance to short on a pullback from the high.
Trading advice
Expect resistance near the 1290-1299 range, look for opportunities to short on a pullback, targeting 1260, with a further downside target of 1235. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $BTC $ZEC A new week has begun, and I'm laying out this week's powder kegs first.
First, CPI on Tuesday night. The minutes said most officials still want to raise rates, non-farm payrolls came as a cold surprise, so now all eyes are on this one inflation number. If the data is soft, rate hike expectations will be completely extinguished. If the data is strong, the positions liquidated last week will have to be liquidated again.
Second, the Middle East. Riyadh airport was bombed four times in 48 hours, with over 320 casualties, including one American citizen killed. Trump is considering direct US military involvement. On the other side, Iran says the US has accepted some conditions, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz is possible. While escalating on one hand, talks are ongoing on the other. Whether oil prices will rocket or settle at the negotiation table this week, no one knows.
Third, the most covert, the midterm elections. Goldman Sachs drew a chart showing that as oil prices rise from $3 to $5 per gallon, the Democrats' chances increase by four points, with a 65% probability of sweeping both chambers. Bank of America is even more severe, saying if the Democrats truly sweep, the stock market could plunge 10%. Gasoline prices have become votes, votes have become market variables—this chain of events hasn't been seen before.
On the market side, BTC is at 83,641, recovering a bit over the weekend; ETH at 2,538; ZEC at 1,267. The liquidation fees from last week have just been cleaned up, and this week the three powder kegs come one after another.
My rhythm is no moves before Tuesday; I'll keep accounts after each powder keg explodes. Everyone remembers the outcome of last week's itchy hands.
Which explosion are you most afraid of this week? CPI, the Middle East, or the elections?
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $BTC $ETH $OKB