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This is the first time since the $ZEC ETF launched in August that there has been a net weekly outflow of funds; money is pulling out, and this signal says more than any positive news. Once liquidity tightens, the layers of previously built-up gains start to fall one by one. On the technical side, there is news that the network now has two independent full node implementations, Zebra and Zakura, which sounds like real progress—but the question is, does the market recognize this? Currently, volume has shrunk to about 40% of usual, and there’s no momentum either up or down.
My own stance: I won’t act until the sideways movement is complete. I’ll wait for the minutes to be released and for the capital flow to turn before discussing further. Jumping in now is no different than blindly guessing heads or tails. The Fed and ECB meeting minutes are coming out tonight, and during the day some have been watching the 10-year US Treasury yield, complaining it still can’t be pushed down. These are the days I hate most; most who bet on data don’t end up well, and the two candlesticks before the release are pure emotion—those who take it seriously get hit.$BTC BTC 84,900: Closed weakly at 85K on Sunday, the afterglow of the non-farm payrolls hasn't faded, but no one is willing to add positions
24h range only 84,512–85,040, volatility <0.6%, weekend volume shrank to 1/3 of usual, a typical "table without a boss."
What it's doing:
Non-farm payrolls smashed the October rate hike probability from 70% down to 13–14%, BTC touched 87,085 then fell back to 84.8K (4.33 billion leverage liquidated that day). This is not a failed reversal, but a "good news realization + weekend illiquidity" retracement shakeout.
Lifeline:
84,500 = key daily level, if 4H closes below → 83,900
83,800–82,800 = pullback zone, breaking 82.8K will hurt the bulls
85,200 / 86,000 = ETF breakeven walls, don't trust a breakout if it can't hold above
87,100 = non-farm peak, only a high-volume daily close above this is a true short squeeze
Don't mistake spikes on Sunday for a trend.
Not breaking 84.5K = bulls playing dead, not closing above 85.2K = false strength, Monday when ETFs return will reveal the truth.
BTC now: Non-farm cracked the door open, weekend is just breathing in the crack.
(Not investment advice · For reference only) $BTC This segment of $AXS is actually not a single big bullish candle, but a sudden volume surge after a long period of sideways consolidation.
After entering around 1.2165, it broke away from the cost zone around 1.20 on the four-hour chart, reaching a high of 1.4486. It is currently oscillating near 1.37, with a floating profit of about 2.54 times the position. Volume clearly increased during the rally phase, and the four-hour MACD remains above the zero line, indicating the bullish major structure has not yet dissipated.
However, the 15-minute chart has already entered a high-level digestion phase; the MACD is weak in the short term, and the KDJ has also fallen from a high level, so chasing the price here is not very meaningful. If it holds around 1.36, there is still a chance to retest 1.39–1.45; if it breaks this support in the short term, profits should be actively protected to avoid turning a big gain into a roller coaster ride. $BTC $ETH #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Looked at a set of data, quite interesting, sharing it with you.
BTC is now 85,127 (24h +0.30%), with a contract long-short position ratio of 1.29
It has fallen from half a day ago (1.33) — longs are reducing positions.
On the spot side, the 1-hour active transactions show more aggressive buying, with a buy-sell ratio of 1.52.
My experience is: the long-short ratio reflects retail sentiment; places with more people often aren't where the money is. When the ratio is high, I tend to be more cautious.
Are you currently long or short?
#BTC #DataAnalysis #Contracts$ARB
Arbitrum’s long-term story depends heavily on whether its scaling infrastructure continues attracting meaningful applications and users. Ethereum Layer-2 competition is intense, so technical capability alone may not guarantee lasting dominance. Developer activity, application diversity and actual transaction demand are more useful indicators than short-term token performance when assessing whether Arbitrum can preserve its position in the scaling market. In early October 2026, major South Korean exchanges such as Upbit and Bithumb officially lifted the trading warning on SAND. Previously, deposits and withdrawals restricted due to the cross-chain bridge vulnerability incident in August were restored, triggering a frenzy of buying in the South Korean market. Coupled with the upcoming public beta of The Sandbox Studio's AI creation feature this month, $SAND launched a violent rally, surging over 60% in 24 hours, with shorts facing a series of liquidations.
Following the trend, I went long on the SANDUSDT perpetual contract on OKX. Opened a position at an average price of 0.07389 with 50x leverage, currently holding as the mark price rose to 0.07569, floating profit at 121.80%.
The lifting of restrictions triggered a liquidity pulse. However, 50x leverage has very low tolerance for error, with severe short-term overbought conditions. Avoid blindly chasing highs and pay attention to risk control. $SOL $CT #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 $LINK
Chainlink’s role is increasingly about infrastructure rather than speculation around a single application. Oracles, interoperability, data feeds and tokenized-asset infrastructure all depend on reliable connections between blockchains and external systems. That breadth is valuable, but it also creates a demanding question for LINK: how effectively does growing infrastructure usage translate into sustainable economic value for the token itself$BTC is like a stormy sea, and the lighthouse is the safest coordinate. A few days ago, the market was highly volatile, and BTC was darting wildly between 83,000 and 85,000 like a kite with a broken string. I didn’t blindly chase the highs but patiently waited for the storm to calm down, then went heavy long at 84,606, the "eye of the storm" where everyone was fearful. The 100x leverage quickly lifted this small boat out of danger, booking a 57% floating profit. Now I’ve dropped the anchor (stop loss) below 84,000; as long as the lighthouse doesn’t go out (support holds), I’ll stay steady in this sea, calmly waiting for the waves to settle. $ETH $ZEC #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 $SENT's large unrealized gains on the books are certainly eye-catching, but the pulse rallies of small-cap tokens are highly deceptive and require an objective assessment of the true drivers behind the market movement.
Opened a long position at 0.02216, judging that after a sufficient prior decline, the bearish momentum has weakened, leaving room for technical correction, thus participating in this short-term opportunity with the trend.
Recently, many similar tokens surged and then quickly fell back; this round of gains is mostly driven by community hype, lacking substantial business progress as fundamental support.
The price has already reached a short-term high; avoid blindly chasing the rally, as the pulse rally could end at any time. The operational focus should prioritize protecting existing unrealized gains. $BTC $ETH 🔥 The Nasdaq hit a new high on Friday, $BTC is still stuck at 85,000, US stocks are actively working, while the crypto circle is slacking off
⚡ The A-shares market is closed for the National Day holiday, but US stocks will open as usual at 21:30 tomorrow night, with $ETH and $SOL also lining up at the door
⏰ ISM follows at 22:00, guess for yourself tonight
📍 Last week's close: S&P 500 around 7,723, flat for the week; Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 hit new highs; Dow Jones fell about 0.6% for the week. AI and chip stocks led the way, bond market sell-off and nearly $100 oil dragged behind, a typical "accelerator and brake pressed simultaneously"
📅 Timeline (Beijing Time)
· Monday 22:00: ISM Services PMI, expected around 55, watch the price index
· Thursday 02:00: Federal Reserve meeting minutes, analysts expect hawkish tone
· Friday: University of Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary
📊 Correlation: After weak nonfarm payrolls, the probability of a rate hike in October dropped to about 14%, US stocks were supported by yields, BTC stuck at 85,000, like a student who didn’t get the memo
🎯 Highlights: ISM prices are hot, both US stocks and crypto get hit; if cool, both sides can catch a breath
Who moves first at Monday’s open: Nasdaq or BTC? Discuss in the comments 👇
$SOL #Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC #比特币与纳指相关性大幅下降：独立还是假象 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 $INJ
Injective’s interesting angle is its specialization around financial applications. Rather than positioning itself as a general-purpose chain alone, the network is designed around trading, lending and other financial use cases, with cross-chain connectivity adding another layer of utility. The important fundamental question is whether developer activity and real financial usage can translate into durable network demand over time.
OKXWeekend market is like dead water.
$ZEC 1329.
It crashed down from 1695, quite brutal, now stuck here, neither going up nor down.
My short position at 822 seems to have recovered a bit.
But still about five hundred points away from break-even, falling slower than a snail.
After nearly a month of holding on, I've long lost my temper.
$UNI 9.013.
This one is the most heart-wrenching.
Long position at 5.744, highest touched 10.195 but didn't exit.
Now it directly dropped back to 9.
Profit halved, want to close but afraid of rebound, don't close afraid it keeps falling.
Watching this line every day is just torturing myself.
$KMNO 0.0399.
Playing dead around 0.04.
Short position still trapped.
Not moving at all, just annoying to watch.
The market volume shrinks, no one is trading.
Funds all ran to speculate on new coins, leaving a bunch of major coins half-dead here.
Everyone seems to be waiting for a direction.
But all that comes is endless sideways movement.Today's third analysis from Little Lobster 🦞, the first two wins pocketed $90 easily. Check out the third analysis, stay tuned!
1. Limit buy order at 85,030 ✅
2. Stop loss at 84,650 ✅ (you said it was included)
3. Take profit first target 85,428 / second target 86,000 — confirmed these are also set (don’t just set stop loss and forget take profit)
All three set = no matter what happens tonight, you don’t need to take any action.
🎯 Possible scenarios tonight (all planned for you)
• No execution (price stays above 85,030) → wake up tomorrow morning and the order is still there, no loss
• Executed and price rises → automatically sell half at 85,428, fully close at 86,000 ✅
• Executed and price falls → automatically stop loss at 84,650, accept $11–18 loss
• Executed and price moves sideways → just leave it, check again tomorrow
All three situations are handled automatically, you can sleep peacefully.
⚠️ One reminder
Don’t get up in the middle of the night to check the market just because your order is set. Setting an order = handing the decision over to the system. Whether you watch or not, the price will move as it should. Getting up at night to manually close or change orders is the easiest way to lose money.
───
So: set it overnight ✅ totally OK. Confirm take profit is set, then go to sleep. Check the results in the morning. 🦞In February 2026, Coinbase's Base network officially announced its exit from OP Stack, shifting to an independent technical architecture. This move directly drained nearly 90% of the sequencer fee revenue from the Optimism Superchain, completely shattering its ecosystem revenue model. The $OP token price subsequently plummeted, retreating over 98% from its 2024 all-time high. Lacking core value capture ability, OP has become a discarded player in the Layer2 competition, and technical upgrades cannot stop the selling pressure, with bears fully dominating the market.
Following the trend, I shorted the OPUSDT perpetual contract on OKX. Opened a position at an average price of 0.13554 with 50x leverage, currently holding, with the mark price dropping to 0.13165, floating profit at 143.50%.
Base's departure triggered a value reassessment. However, the 50x leverage has an extremely low tolerance for error; even a slight adverse spike risks liquidation. Avoid blindly increasing positions and pay attention to risk control. $ZEC $SOL #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 There have been significant changes in the Ethereum staking end in the past two days.
Data shows that at the beginning of October, the validator exit queue surged to about 850,000 ETH, a nearly 392% increase compared to the start of the month, with a queue waiting time for redemption close to 15 days, hitting a new high this year.
This large-scale exit was mainly due to issues with MetaMask's staking service.
On September 30, MetaMask announced that its infrastructure suffered a security incident and proactively withdrew a batch of affected validator nodes. Rough estimates indicate a total of 17,000 validators involved, amounting to 523,000 ETH. MetaMask stated externally that no user wallets or assets were found to be stolen.
But one thing must be clear: staking exit ≠ direct market sell-off.
Ethereum itself has an exit rate limit mechanism; funds withdrawn from staking can only be unlocked in batches through a queue. Meanwhile, the new staking entry queue still has about 1.51 million ETH, a scale larger than the current exit queue.
The total network staking amount remains stable around 43.7 million ETH, indicating that this is only a localized concentrated unstaking, not a collapse of the entire network's staking wave. $BTC $ETH $SOL Also liquidated UNI, altcoins liquidated.
There is only one reason for liquidation: I am confident to buy back below 8.75.
Because ETH is very likely to first return to around 2675, and then head towards 2740. Based on this judgment, altcoin positions can be redesigned. $TIA
Celestia approaches blockchain scaling from a different direction by separating data availability from execution. That modular design could matter as more applications seek customized environments without rebuilding every infrastructure layer themselves. The thesis ultimately depends on sustained demand for data availability, developer adoption, and whether modular architecture becomes a dominant design choice rather than simply an alternative approach. Today, there are 5 important changes in the crypto space that can actually be connected into a main storyline: Institutional funds are flowing back into the crypto market, and after this inflow, the funds are spreading to a broader range of assets, more complex financial products, and more mature public chain ecosystems. 1️⃣ First stop: BTC, institutional funds lead the return As of October 2, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a single-day net inflow of about $32.12 million, with Fidelity's FBTC contributing about $29.3 million. Since September, the cumulative net inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs has been about $2.7 billion. This highlights a core issue: Institutional funds have not left the crypto market but are instead seeking new allocation opportunities. BTC remains the primary entry point for institutions into the crypto market. ↓ 2️⃣ Second stop: ETH, funds begin to seek the next layer of opportunity If BTC is the "first asset" for institutions entering the crypto market, then ETH is becoming an important direction for funds seeking a second growth curve. Since 2026, the US spot Ethereum ETF has accumulated about $1.5 billion in new funds. ETH is currently fluctuating around $2700. This means the market is observing a change: whether institutional allocation is spreading from BTC to ETH and a broader range of crypto assets. If this fund diffusion continues, the market structure may gradually shift from "BTC single dominance" to greater diversification. ↓ 3️⃣ Third stop: Financial products, leverage begins to amplify capital efficiency After funds enter, the next step is the continuous enrichment of financial products. The US market is increasing 3x leverage$PONS perpetual 20x short position, opened at 0.4305, currently at 0.4114, floating profit +88.73%.
The logic is simple: the 0.43 whole number resistance was tested three times without breaking, volume decreased, clear top pattern. Finally waited for a bearish candle to short. 20x leverage, stop loss at 0.44. The movement is very smooth, no chance for a rebound.
Trailing stop moved to 0.42 to lock in profits. If volume breaks below 0.40, can hold a bit longer.
$BTC $ETH #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Just this afternoon, a new address suddenly made a big move! This guy directly withdrew 1,420 $ETH from OKX, which at the price of 2692 at the time amounts to a full $3.82 million! What's even more impressive is that right after withdrawing the coins, while the transaction was still fresh, he immediately staked them all in Lido.
Let's break down this move in plain terms. First, this is a new address making its first position—either a new big player entering the market or an old whale switching accounts. Second, withdrawing and immediately staking in Lido shows a very clear intention—they have no plans for short-term trading, but are aiming for long-term interest earnings, definitely a holder and yield farmer.
The average price of $2692 is neither too high nor too low. Choosing to make a large position and lock it at this price point—doesn't this indicate that the big player thinks the price has bottomed out? They don't want to mess with swings, just want to lie back and earn staking rewards.Brothers, the Iranian foreign minister is making statements again, saying the Strait of Hormuz won't open until conditions are met. My reaction after reading this—here we go again.
How many times has this been said? If it really mattered, BTC would have crashed long ago. Instead, it bounced back to 85000; the market is already immune to this kind of rhetoric, shouting alone can't shake the market.
So the bears shouldn't be too confident. Until 825 breaks, the direction hasn't emerged at all; it's too early to talk about trends. Right now, it's just a huge box between 825 and 870, ridiculously wide, and the volatility is just wild.
ETH is even more frustrating. It hovered around 2696 all day, with a 24-hour high of 2697.9 and a low of 2677.4, just a $20 range, and a slight intraday increase of 0.59%.
Looking at 4-hour and 1-hour charts, it's consolidating at the top of an ascending channel, with bulls slightly dominant. But there's dense trading volume between 2700 and 2720, and a volume breakout hasn't come yet.
My take: BTC is in wide-range volatility, ETH is slightly bullish in consolidation, and no one should rush to take sides. If someone tells you it's time to be bearish now, let them wait until 825 breaks first.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Around 85.1K, the long-short divergence of $BTC has become clearer: one scenario views the 83K area as a buy-the-dip point, waiting for support before rebounding; the other scenario thinks chasing longs near the previous high has a poor risk-reward ratio and prefers to wait for a pullback confirmation. These are all unverified trading plans, not trend facts.
Kraken quotes about 85.1K, with the price approaching the upper range again. My personal market observation is that a volume-increased close above 85.1K favors the bullish scenario; if it falls below 84.7K, the pullback scenario takes precedence. I will not bet prematurely before price decides between these two paths, nor treat high leverage signals as opportunities.
The real decision still lies in the close and the pullback: will you follow after 85.1K confirmation, or defend after 84.7K breaks? For information sharing only, not investment advice.Bull market: confirmed.
Bitcoin closed above its 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2023 — the line that has called every bull market since 2019.
Next resistance: $88K–$90K.
On-chain data called this in mid-August. Bitcoin's cleared its supply wall.The next few days could get interesting for altcoins.
$PROVE unlocks ~$4.2M today.
$ENA follows with ~$40.2M tomorrow.
$NAME is the real outlier: ~$56.7M, equal to more than 74% of its current market value.
Unlocks don’t automatically mean selling.
But when unlocked supply becomes huge relative to market cap, even moderate selling can have an outsized impact.$CT perpetual 20x short position, opened at 0.5156, currently 0.4926, floating profit +89.21%.
The logic is simple: the 0.515 integer resistance was tested three times without breaking, volume decreased, clear top pattern. Finally waited for a bearish candle to short. 20x leverage, stop loss at 0.52. The movement is very smooth, no chance for a rebound.
Trailing stop moved to 0.50 to lock in profits. If volume breaks below 0.48, can hold a bit longer.
$ETH $BTC #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 $NIGHT is up roughly 91% in seven days.
And it isn’t just a one-day spike.
The token is now around $0.049 — its highest level in roughly six months.
What’s unusual?
Cardano itself has been down about 5% over the same period.
NIGHT is moving independently of its broader ecosystem.
The upcoming v8 upgrade is now the catalyst to watch.$MUBARAK feels like it’s nearing the end of its compression—next move could be explosive either way. 👀
I’m already in, so now it’s simple: either I get wiped, or $0.02 becomes the exit target. 😂
Key zones: • $0.069 — breakout trigger
• $0.065 — first support
• $0.063 — major support
A failed breakout followed by weakness could send it lower fast. Watch OI and volume closely.
$ZEC $CT
#BessentTreasuryYields #NEARFundsRecovered #NEARFundsRecovered $PONS
Does holding 0.4 mean the bottom is confirmed?
Today's observed 24-hour range is 0.4—0.4358, with a window change of about -2.76% and a trading volume of approximately 8 million USDT.
The lowest price is an observation boundary, not a guarantee; holding it once may only be a temporary support. Multiple pullbacks that can still raise the lows provide more evidence of a bottom.
If the price later breaks above 0.4358, holds on a pullback, and trading volume cooperates, I will raise my judgment on continuation; if it falls below 0.4 and the rebound fails to recover, I will lower my judgment. The above boundaries come from this observation window and need to be rechecked as the market changes.$HYPE just got a serious vote of confidence.
Hyperliquid Strategies bought another 1.9M HYPE worth ~$167.2M.
Its total holdings are now around 37M HYPE, valued at ~$3.26B.
And HYPE is still below its previous ATH.
The interesting question:
How much supply can a buyer of this size absorb if the market stays sideways?$BCH perpetual 50x long position, opened at 311.1, now at 318, floating profit +110.89%.
I've actually been watching this trade for quite a while. The 311 level was repeatedly tested but never broken; every time it approached this area, there was buying support. After confirming the bottom was valid, I decisively went long on the bullish candle. Using 50x leverage, position size pushed to the extreme.
Currently floating profit is +110.89%, and the trailing stop has been moved up to 315. Not greedy, locking in profits first.
$ZEC $ETH #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 Today I was flipping $PONS V2 and saw something that completely stunned me.
Originally, to prevent launch bots, it would charge a maximum 99% anti-sniping tax in the first few seconds after launch, then quickly drop to 0 within about 5 seconds. That sounds reasonable, at least preventing bots from sweeping up the new coin immediately at launch.
The problem is: the project creator can exempt up to 32 addresses from this tax.
On-chain analyst Wazz recently tracked 53 token projects on Robinhood Chain and believes the same operation has siphoned off at least $18.43 million. The Block itself reviewed 10 of the PONS V2 projects and found that 9 showed similar situations: the creator first exempts 15–25 addresses from tax, then these addresses almost instantly buy together at launch, directly consuming the curve, and in the end, the creator plus these exempt addresses can get 82%–86% of the supply.
It was only when I saw this that I realized.
What I used to fear was bots front-running, but now I see the biggest danger might not be "who runs fastest," but "who doesn’t have to pay the entry fee from the start."
Of course, the $18.43 million total is currently Wazz’s statistic; The Block has not fully independently recalculated, so I won’t outright condemn all PONS V2 projects. $ATOM ATOM rose 2.78% to $1.77. But what’s really worth watching isn’t the price, it’s the smart money’s position: top traders hold 59.3% long, with a long-short ratio of 1.46. This isn’t retail FOMO; it’s institutional-level capital actively accumulating around $1.75. ATOM has risen above all major moving averages—7-day, 20-day, 50-day, 200-day. The technical structure is aligning, momentum just hasn’t ignited yet. Gauntlet’s second reform phase focuses on dynamic inflation, and Wells Fargo will launch Cosmos tokenized deposits this fall. The structure is changing; price is just the shadow. In 2-3 years, it might be out of reach.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 A Bitcoin address dormant for 13.1 years just woke up, holding 801 BTC worth ~$68.3M. It moved 43 BTC in what looks like a test transaction before the full transfer. Ancient whales rarely move without a reason and this one predates the 2013 rally. Your read?
$BTC Brothers, ETH is now at a position that's uncomfortable both up and down.
The current price is $2693, hovering right in the middle. Looking down, 2559 is the first hurdle; if it really drops 5% to that level, a bunch of high-leverage long positions will be liquidated immediately. Looking up, 2801 is a major threshold; if it rises 4% to that point, high-leverage short positions will be wiped out.
The liquidation danger zone above is closer to the current price, meaning if it really moves up, shorts will be liquidated first.
There are two small traps below: 2478 and 2323. Above, there are two major checkpoints: 2814 and 2983.
These levels are calculated based on public prices and open interest contracts; this doesn't mean the price will definitely reach them, nor is it a prediction of rise or fall, so don't misunderstand.
Compared to 24 hours ago, ETH has quietly risen 0.57%.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Lately I've been watching ZEC every day, and I almost forgot about $xMRVL.
So I checked what Monero has been up to recently. Wow, on October 5th, it also has a big move.
The beta stressnet for FCMP++ and CARROT is going to undergo a new round of hard fork testing.
To be clear, this is not an immediate upgrade to the XMR mainnet tomorrow.
But FCMP++ is something I think privacy coin users really should pay attention to.
Currently, Monero hides a transaction by basically hiding the actual spent XMR among 16 candidate outputs, so you don't know which one it is.
FCMP++ wants to go even further.
It plans to expand this range directly to all qualifying outputs on the entire chain, which currently exceeds 150 million.
From 16 to over 150 million.
My first reaction when I saw this was:
Bro, you're not just enhancing privacy a bit.
You're planning to flip the table😭
And this has been in development for over two years now; it's no longer just a PPT stage. The stressnet has already reached v3, and P2Pool has just released a test version compatible with FCMP++ / CARROT.
Of course, there's still some distance before it goes live on the mainnet.
Monero's official roadmap still marks FCMP++ and CARROT as In Progress, and there are still many unfinished tasks in the related hard fork milestones on GitHub.
So it's definitely wrong to hype "XMR's epic upgrade tomorrow."
But I've been thinking about one question recently:
After ZEC reignited the privacy track this round, who can take the next baton?
If XMR successfully pushes FCMP++ to the mainnet, I think it will at least give a very strong answer:
While others are still debating whether privacy is needed,
Monero has already started researching how to hide you even deeper😭
Let's first see if the test on October 5th can run smoothly.
I'm planning to keep an eye on this.
For personal organization only, not investment advice, DYOR.📊 Daily Brief｜2026-10-04
🌐 Market Overview: Total crypto market cap around $2.98T, up about 2.2% in 24h; trading volume about $91.6B, significantly expanded compared to previous period. ₿ BTC around $84.8K–85.3K, up about 1% in 7 days, BTC Dominance about 57.5%, funds starting to spread to some strong altcoins, but not yet a full altcoin season.
🏦 BTC ETF: Net inflow about $82.9M this week, inflows on 4 out of 5 trading days, but sharply down from $2.39B last week; IBIT remains the main buyer. The fund flow is bullish but with reduced intensity.
🔥 Bull Score: 70/100
🪙 Altcoin Season: 57/100
⬆️ BTC breaks $90K: confirms a new main uptrend, can increase risk positions;
⬇️ Pullback to $82.8K: normal fluctuation; $75K is an important zone to observe for adding positions; if weekly closes below $70K, then significantly reduce risk.
💵 Recommendation: Crypto 80% / USDT 20%.
🚀 Potential Coin: MORPHO
One sentence today: BTC has not entered the bull tail; altcoin rise looks more like funds starting to spread from BTC to high-quality DeFi, AI/identity sectors; the focus now is not chasing the rally, but holding strong assets, reducing weak high-risk positions, and waiting for BTC to truly break $90K before increasing aggressiveness. Day 43 of the $ZEC short saga, 47 days to go. 😂
$ZEC is back near $1,334, showing stronger momentum than the majors. $1,345–1,360 is the key resistance zone, while $1,300 and $1,283 are the levels I’m watching below.
$BTC has ETF support but looks overheated, while $ETH is still mostly following BTC.
ZEC looks strong, but chasing the short here feels risky. Patience > forcing a trade. 📊
Not financial advice. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BessentTreasuryYields #NEARFundsRecovered
#G7OilReserveRelease Why Block Reorganization Risk Is Related to Extreme MEV
Under normal circumstances, validators continue to produce blocks along the established chain because abandoning the latest block results in lost time and rewards. However, if a historical block contains an abnormally large extractable value, newcomers may be motivated to reorganize the chain to compete for that profit. Although the probability is low, it reveals a principle: when the revenue from a single block far exceeds the normal reward, economic incentives may begin to challenge consensus stability.
Ethereum's finality, slashing rules, and broad validation increase the cost of reorganization, but they are not a magic that makes "any amount impossible to shake." The protocol needs to limit the temptation of extreme profits to consensus, and applications should avoid exposing huge, replicable profits in a single atomic transaction. $ETH security depends not only on the total stake but also on the relative relationship between attack gains and penalty costs.
Ordinary users do not need to worry about chain reorganizations for every arbitrage; what truly deserves monitoring are abnormal block values, consecutive reorganizations, and delays in finality. Incorporating tail risks into design is more reliable than claiming they will never happen. The advantage of a mature settlement layer is not the absence of economic attack surfaces but the ability to continuously identify incentive imbalances and keep attack costs long-term higher than potential gains.#VanEck: Bitcoin May Continue to Expand Market Share
Mid-term Intelligence Brother analyzes for everyone
VanEck is bullish on Bitcoin's share; the core reason is not that "altcoins will die," but that institutionalization is making $BTC the "core position" in crypto assets.
Spot BTC ETFs, corporate treasury purchases, and sovereign/central bank reserve narratives are concentrating funds from long-tail tokens into Bitcoin; ETF custody and a high proportion of long-term holders tighten circulating supply, structurally supporting BTC's market share.
But don't misinterpret this as a short-term one-sided surge
Long-term share expansion has fundamentals; short-term depends on ETF flows and macro liquidity validation. Altcoins are not without opportunity, but within institutional allocation frameworks, they are likely to continue being compressed into "satellite positions."
$ETH
$HYPE
#The Fed and ECB will release September meeting minutes A professional way to read the market: $BTC indicates whether the capital is staying in crypto; $ETH shows if the capital is expanding into the ecosystem; $SOL reflects the level of risk acceptance; $XRP reveals the strength of a separate narrative branch. When all four signals align, altcoins may enter a phase of strong volatility. When BTC rises but ETH, SOL, and XRP weaken, be cautious of FOMO. ETFs remain data worth monitoring because capital flows can change rapidly session by session. Capital flow is more important than slogans.🔷 Billions are returning, but premiums have disappeared
• Crypto companies are raising billions, but without premiums
• Kalshi: $1 billion at a $40 billion valuation (twice May's level)
• Blockchain.com: $500 million IPO, valuation $4-6 billion (vs $14 billion peak)
• DWF Ventures: only 4 out of 20 crypto treasuries trade above NAV
🧠 The industry is attracting capital, but rationally. Kalshi gets a premium, Blockchain.com is 3 times below its peak. Crypto treasuries are not working
❓ Will premiums return?👇
$BTC $BTC perpetual 100x long position, opened at 84545.9, now 85102.6, floating profit +65.84%.
84,500 support is solid; every time it approaches this area, it seems like there is buying pressure holding it up. Confident in a successful bottom test, will go long directly on a bullish candle breakout. 100x leverage, very small position, stop loss at 84,000.
Currently +65.84%, trailing stop at 84,800. Profit secured, mindset calm.
$ETH $ZEC #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 On Sunday night, BTC was quoted at about $85,140. Looking at the price alone, one might think there’s nothing much to say today, with less than 1% fluctuation in 24 hours and the candlestick resembling a nearly flat line with slight ripples. But there are several data points worth noting. BTC’s total open interest in contracts across the network decreased by 6.05% in 24 hours, currently totaling about $54 billion. The funding rate is close to neutral or even slightly negative, meaning the current $85,000 level is not being propped up by leveraged longs but is a natural result formed by the spot market. Open contracts denominated in Bitcoin have dropped to their lowest level since March, nearly 20% lower than in August. In other words, speculative chips are systematically clearing out, which is a quite healthy signal in the middle of a bull market.
Also, the SEC approved the first batch of 3x leveraged crypto ETPs on Friday. Although formal trading still requires completion of registration procedures, the regulator’s intention to expand compliant leverage channels is clear. On the other hand, spot ETF inflows have noticeably cooled compared to earlier periods, with a net inflow of about $82.9 million last week, far below the $2.39 billion of the previous week.
My personal feeling is that BTC is currently in a "low-volume consolidation" phase, and the trigger for directional choice will most likely come from the return of liquidity after the holiday. It is recommended not to make directional bets and to patiently wait for volume confirmation. The low volatility over the weekend does not mean the risk has disappeared; it is just accumulating strength for the next move. Staying clear-headed is more important than chasing gains. $BTC $ETH $XAUT #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 Brothers, BTC and gold are both going down, I’m just holding on. This market is really volatile.
On Friday, despite such a big positive non-farm payroll report, Wall Street simply didn’t take the bait. US Treasury yields made a V-shaped rebound back to previous levels, gold pulled up a bit then fell back to support and kept grinding.
BTC is even worse, a fake breakout followed by more traps, no decent rally at all, all bull traps. On Friday, BTC spot ETF had a net outflow of 268 million, and a bunch of longs got trapped in the 86000 to 86500 range.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, it’s still consolidating, but after seven consecutive daily green candles, the daily chart closed with a shooting star, a classic fake breakout plus double top.
But then again, even if the technicals look bearish, when sentiment kicks in, no matter the pattern, it can still violently rally to new highs, and you have no say.
I myself got liquidated at 92000, now I’m numb. The shorts are eating the longs’ margin, once that’s gone, liquidation follows, no other way.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 $TRUMP perpetual 50x short position, opened at 2.07, currently at 2.028, floating profit +101.44%.
The logic is very simple: the 2.07 round number resistance was tested three times without breaking, volume decreased, showing clear top characteristics. Finally waited for a bearish candle to short. 50x leverage, stop loss at 2.1. The movement is very smooth, no chance for a rebound.
Trailing stop moved up to 2.04 to lock in profits. If volume breaks below 2.0, can hold a bit longer.
$ZEC $SOL #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 OKX
$AVAX
Avalanche’s competitive edge is its flexibility around application-specific blockchain infrastructure, but that creates an important measurement problem: ecosystem growth can become fragmented across many environments. The bullish case requires those networks to generate meaningful economic activity rather than simply increasing the number of deployments. Watching real users, liquidity, and application demand may tell us more than headline launch counts. Analyzing the potential risks currently facing $BTC for everyone
Glassnode says that people in the 89,000 and 97,000 cost zones are cutting losses;
Ali points out weakness before 87,200, whales are selling over 30,000 coins during the rise, support is seen at 82,500.
Kalshi gives only a 14% probability of breaking 100,000 by 2026, sentiment is cold.
Bitdeer sold out 292 coins, a 16-year-old whale transferred over 5,000 coins, all signals of cashing out or repositioning.
My view: still expect institutional bottoming, the point to add positions is after selling pressure is fully released.
$BTC NVIDIA $NVDA stock price volatility next week will hold above 235 and break through 260
CME, in partnership with Silicon Data, will launch innovative trading tools for computing power futures on October 5, featuring two combined contracts: Silicon Data H100 Leasing Index and Silicon Data B200 Leasing Index futures, regulated by the NYSE. The time to fiercely seize computing power pricing rights has arrived $ETH I'm back again, I'll leave once I make 100U. Mainly because I hold too many coins right now. $XAU $SPCX and PURR, way too many.
Holding these, here are my thoughts:
First, XAU has relatively small volatility; the funding rate is mostly positive, which is unfriendly for long positions, and I happen to be long; the long positions are too crowded. So, I'll try to avoid this in the future.
Second, SPCX must be sold before the weekend because the US stock market is closed, causing very little volatility; it's better to trade ETH over the weekend.
Third, PURR is affected by hype and the US stock market, with very low trading volume; after this trade, I won't do it anymore.$LIT perpetual 50x long position, opened at 3.5221, now at 3.6027, floating profit +114.42%.
I've actually been watching this position for quite a while. The 3.52 level was repeatedly tested but never broken; every time it approached this area, there was buying support. After confirming the bottom was valid, I decisively went long on the bullish candle. Using 50x leverage, the position size was pushed to the extreme.
Currently floating profit is +114.42%, and the trailing stop loss has been moved up to 3.58. Not greedy, locking in profits first.
$ETH $BTC #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要