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In September, the US nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, yet BTC experienced a very typical "rise first, then fall" pattern.
What’s truly worth studying this time is not how bad the nonfarm data was, but why the market initially bought BTC and then gave back the gains.
On October 2, the US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the market expectation of about 90,000, and July and August employment data were revised down by a total of 60,000; the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, average hourly earnings rose by only 0.1% month-over-month, and the year-over-year growth rate dropped to 3.0%.
The first reaction was very simple:
Weak nonfarm data → less reason for the Fed to continue raising rates → US Treasury yields fall → dollar under pressure → risk assets supported by liquidity expectations → BTC quickly rallies.
That’s how the market traded at the time. BTC once broke above around $87,000, and US Treasury yields also quickly declined after the data release.
But then the problem arose.
If the employment data is not just a "mild cooling," but an obvious economic slowdown, then the logic shifts from "lower interest rates" to "the economy might be worse."
This is the core reason why BTC first rose and then fell.
Simply put:
Bad nonfarm data → expectations of rate cuts/pauses rise → positive for BTC
Bad nonfarm data → rising recession concerns → risk appetite declines → suppresses BTC again
Both logics exist simultaneously, and the market eventually started to trade the second one again.
Moreover, there was a very critical signal this time: US Treasury yields did not keep falling. The 10-year Treasury yield hit its lowest point after the nonfarm data release$BTC's current pullback is just the beginning of the real test.
It has fallen from above $87,000 intraday and is now hovering around $84,500. $BTC has cooled down short-term sentiment.
There are two scenarios ahead:
Holding above **$84,000**, first targeting $85,500, then the previous high near $87,000;
Breaking below **$84,000** and continuing to weaken means we need to watch out for a further retest near $82,000.
Now is not about who shouts the loudest, but about how the price moves.
When $BTC doesn't give a clear direction, don't make decisions for the market.Market sentiment is very hot, but DOGE remains calmly alone. The Fear and Greed Index is stuck at 72, in the greed zone, with funds flowing in, just not into Dogecoin.
This is not DOGE's problem; it's a matter of queue order. As the overall market sentiment warms up, the flow of funds follows a sequence: first BTC, the anchor of institutional holdings; then ETH, the foundation of the ecosystem narrative; followed by SOL, the flexible first choice. By the time it’s DOGE’s turn, the positions have already been allocated. This structural marginalization repeats in every greed cycle—the hotter the index, the longer the tail of the queue.
Dogecoin’s chip structure determines its position. Without an ETF channel to absorb new inflows, without staking yields to lock in existing holdings, most holders are retail investors waiting for the wind. When the wind comes, it blows elsewhere first. Elon Musk’s topics occasionally ignite a fuse, but the fuse doesn’t burn far on this damp market.
The calm $DOGE is a mirror reflecting market stratification. The greed index measures total sentiment, while price reflects capital choices. The total amount is rising, but the choice bypasses it. For holders, this may not be a bad thing: a marginal position means low crowding, and once the mainline saturates and funds overflow, the tail will become the head. Before that happens, one must get used to the fact that the excitement belongs to others. $DOGE 【On-Chain Trading Update｜ASTER】
Monitored address 0xbe10 opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: $0.7102
▪ Transaction amount this time: $106,525.47
▪ Leverage: 3x
Note: This address has earned over $1,327,000 in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +85.72% *October 4 $BTC Latest in Chinese (Pakistan Time Afternoon)*
- *Market*: $85,333 fluctuating, 4-hour ascending channel upper boundary at $87,238 met resistance and pulled back, support at $84.5K-$86K, breaking down targets $78K-$82K
- *Macro*: Nonfarm payrolls 29,000 far below expected 90,000, unemployment rate 4.2%, PCE cooling, rate hike probability only 18%, 10-year US Treasury at 5.17%
- *ETF*: Q3 net inflow $6.34 billion reversing Q2 outflow of 5 billion, strongest Q3 since 2017, but today only $103 million inflow, buying momentum weakening
- *Trend*: Short-term pullback remains a pullback, a new catalyst is needed for a strong one-sided rally, $88K-$90K is strong resistance
In one sentence: *Positive factors realized, volatility cooling, holding $84,500 without breaking is the only chance for a second surge to $88K.*Recently, I haven't been doing arbitrage because the volatility is low, and it's time to choose a direction.
The rebound in AI tech stocks is in its final stage; except for giants with sufficient cash flow, for those that have fallen a lot, buying is basically fine.
For those traditional cyclical stocks using AI narratives up to now, if they haven't broken previous highs and are consolidating, don't try to guess the bottom. Going long now only has a 3% stop-loss space, and the odds aren't high. It's really better to wait for a clearer direction.
There are still quite a few surprises to look forward to. Previously, there were many positives; going forward, there will gradually be random negatives.
Those starting to short for trend should begin testing positions. If the previous highs aren't broken, and the rebound is within a downtrend space, short on rallies, give the market some time. The odds here are much better than going long.
So for upcoming trend trades, unless unexpected events occur and the logic is falsified, just hold on. Use time to exchange for space with high odds.
Finish the longs on this wave of Tem that don't break the lower band, then go all in on shorting Hynix.
#非农降温难压美债收益率，长期利率压力仍在 Why do some people always manage to "prove they were right"?
When BTC was at 58,000:
"It will drop to 50,000."
At 70,000:
"62,000 definitely won't hold."
At 80,000:
"70,000 is the target."
At 85,000:
"Waiting for 75,000."
The most interesting thing is:
The price keeps rising, and so do the target prices.
This is not simply a bearish issue, but a very common cognitive trap in trading:
Turning a "viewpoint" into an "identity."
At first, it was just:
"I think BTC will fall."
Later it became:
"I am a bear."
Then, no matter how the market changes, one must find reasons to prove their initial judgment was not wrong.
So the target prices keep moving, but the logic never truly updates.
At this point, it's no longer about analyzing the market, but about protecting one's own viewpoint.
A truly mature trading approach should be:
Price changes → Data changes → Re-evaluation → Adjust viewpoint if necessary.
It's okay to be bullish.
It's okay to be bearish.
But don't turn your position into a belief.
The most dangerous thing in the market is not being wrong, but refusing to admit it after being wrong.Brothers, $ZEC is now at 1316, with a low of 1270, having retraced more than 20% from the high of 1695.
Zcash has fallen from the late September high of $1,698 down to around $1,316, dropping over 7% in a single day. The core reasons for this correction are three simultaneous events: Grayscale ZCSH ETF had a single-day outflow of $30.25 million, with cumulative net inflows dropping from $233 million to $203 million; market rumors that North Korean hackers are using privacy pools to transfer stolen funds, raising regulatory concerns; plus a previous surge of 253% that accumulated a large amount of profit-taking.
But the whales are still buying on the dip.
On-chain data shows that a whale has net accumulated about 22,960 ZEC in the past week, worth approximately $31.7 million, with an average entry price of about 1,509, currently at an unrealized loss of about 7%. Another whale entity holds 65,158 ZEC, valued at over $91 million, and has been adding to their position recently.
Key technical levels: $1,233 is the critical daily close watershed; holding above it means the correction is still healthy; if it breaks above $1,410.72 again, the uptrend will resume. ADX is at 52, indicating the trend strength is not significantly broken, and the 50-day EMA remains above the 200-day EMA.
Discuss in the comments, is this ZEC correction a buying opportunity or a trend top? 👇
#ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元 The market is in panic, yet BlackRock is still buying BTC?
A set of data is worth noting:
BlackRock IBIT bought about $195.6 million worth of BTC in a single day yesterday.
Net purchases in the past month are about $1.57 billion.
Interestingly, this happened during a phase of clearly weakening market sentiment.
BTC fell below 84k.
Long positions continue to be liquidated.
Funding rates have turned to extreme negative values.
Market sentiment has clearly cooled down.
But ETF funds are still continuously allocating.
This indicates a very important change:
Short-term sentiment and long-term capital behavior can be completely opposite.
Retail investors may choose to sell due to the decline, and leveraged funds may be forced to liquidate.
But funds allocated through ETFs may continue to buy according to their asset allocation plans.
So when you see "BlackRock bought $1.57 billion," don't simply interpret it as:
"Institutions are bottom-fishing."
You should rather ask:
What is the nature of these funds?
Are they long-term allocation funds?
Arbitrage funds?
Or short-term trading funds?
Different fund natures lead to completely different subsequent behaviors.
What is truly worth observing in the ETF era is not whether institutions have bought, but:
When the market falls, have long-term allocation funds stopped buying? 0.078 $SAND, dare to chase?
On October 1st, it was still consolidating at 0.044. After the Korean exchange lifted deposit and withdrawal restrictions on October 2nd, shorts rushed to cover, pushing the price up to 0.07, with a high of 0.084. The 24-hour increase was 65-75%, market cap only 230 million, volume 1 billion, turnover rate extremely high, daily RSI broke 80 indicating severe overbought, a typical short squeeze scenario that came fast and may retreat quickly.
Market logic:
① The rise is due to the Korean exchange lifting restrictions. After the cross-chain bridge hack, the platform suspended deposits and withdrawals, accumulating a large number of shorts. Once restrictions were lifted, concentrated short covering triggered a pulse rally.
② The metaverse narrative cooled down, SAND's fundamentals show no turning point, the token is nearly fully circulating, LAND data is below peak, this round is driven by liquidity and short covering.
Technically, this is a mid-pulse move, not the start of a trend.
Resistance: 0.082-0.084, only above 0.085 can we look at 0.09-0.10
Support: 0.064 is the critical line; breaking below 0.059 ends this rally, returning to the 0.044-0.046 range.
Operation reference:
Aggressive: very light position at 0.078, stop loss at 0.068, reduce half at 0.084.
Conservative: wait for a pullback to 0.064-0.069 to observe, ideal entry 0.050-0.055, if not reached, do not chase.
Breakout type: volume breakout and hold above 0.085, pullback not below 0.078 then follow up, abandon false breakout.
Short: light short at 0.082-0.084 if stagnation occurs, stop loss at 0.088, targets 0.069 and 0.060 I guess people who recently bought PONS must have strong feelings about it.
You'll find it dropping lower each time, it's so frustrating. If it rebounds, you sell; if it falls, you buy again and then sell again. It looks okay, but the problem now is that although it has been rebounding recently, it keeps hitting new lows, and this level still hasn't stabilized.
It used to fluctuate between 0.5 and 0.7, but now it's out of that range. The first time it hit 0.5 was golden, but after many times, it became a pit of despair. The current price has already dropped to 0.4!
And even with positive news, PONS upgraded to V3, the good news came out but it continued to be harvested. However, the impressive thing is that despite dropping so much, the fee rate is still positive, which is quite remarkable—there's so much faith!
If it goes below 0.3, I might consider PONS. For now, I'll keep watching! This kind of trading style really makes it impossible to feel comfortable.
$PONS *October 3 $BTC Latest 5 Chinese News Highlights*
1. *Nonfarm Payrolls Surprise*: September added 29,000 vs expected 90,000, previous 162,000 revised down to 133,000, unemployment rate 4.2%, all four indicators missed, October rate hike probability dropped from 64% to 18%
2. *Price*: $83,900 → surged to $87,238 → currently $85,333 retreating, $244 million short squeeze, 24-hour range $84,057-$87,238
3. *Key Levels*: Resistance $88K-$90K (3,100 sell wall), support $84.5K-$86K trendline, break targets $78K-$82K
4. *Funds*: ETF inflow today only $103 million, total $2.39 billion this week, 10-year US Treasury yield 5.34%→5.17%
5. *Action*: Failure to hold $85,500 is a false breakout, holding $84,057 is needed for a second attempt at $88K, break below targets $83,100
In short: *After the bullish news is priced in, price surged then retreated; wait for $85,500 to stabilize, do not chase.*$DOGE Don't rush to say the familiar market is back yet, meow.
Tonight, Dogecoin rose about 2.4% intraday, but it is still down about 3.5% for the week.
Newcomers think the rebound is good, while those who bought a few days ago might still be waiting to break even. During the same rise, the moods of these two groups are completely different, meow.
I will pay attention to one situation: the price has just stabilized, but expectations have already run far ahead.
At this time, it's easiest to mistake "finally losing less" for "there must be a big rise ahead." Breaking even is your own account; the market has no obligation to cooperate, meow.
$PEPE I want to talk about that feeling of "buy a little and get a lot of coins," meow.
Lots of zeros after the decimal point look cheap, and holding a large quantity doesn't make profits easier.
If the reason for placing an order is just because others are showing profits and you feel you must buy now or you'll miss out, then you haven't really thought through why you are optimistic, meow.
Especially don't expect to be as calm chasing after a coin as others were when they bought at a low price.
$SUI tends to make people mix up long-term optimism with short-term impatience, meow.
If before buying you said you were willing to wait a few months, but after two days with no movement you want to switch to a faster-rising coin, what you really want might just be to see profits immediately.
I prefer to think this through first, meow: how long can you really accept waiting?
Otherwise, you keep switching, always finding your current holding too slow, and always attracted by others' excitement. $DOGE BTC short positions are starting to get crowded, is the short squeeze fuel increasing?
Recently, BTC has shown a signal worth noting:
The funding rate has dropped to its most negative level since May.
Simply put:
When the funding rate is positive, longs usually pay shorts;
When the funding rate is negative, shorts pay longs.
Now that the rate has clearly turned negative, it indicates that the capital betting on a price drop is rapidly crowding in.
And what shorts fear most is a sudden price reversal upward.
Because once BTC starts to rise, some shorts will stop loss or even get liquidated.
Closing a short position essentially means buying BTC.
This can lead to:
Price rise → short covering → forced buying → continued rise → more short covering.
This is a classic "short squeeze."
But it’s important to note:
Crowded shorts ≠ immediate BTC reversal.
It only indicates a change in position structure.
What’s truly worth watching is whether the funding rate, open interest, spot trading volume, and price structure all change simultaneously.
If these signals start to resonate together, the market odds may truly shift.
Crowding is not a buy signal, but extreme crowding is worth monitoring.Bitcoin is currently fluctuating between $84,000 and $87,000. Weak non-farm payrolls have lowered rate hike expectations, ETF inflows and "Uptober" sentiment provide support, but high U.S. Treasury yields and unresolved geopolitical risks keep selling pressure evident between $87,000 and $87,300. In the short term, this is a high-level turnover, not a trend reversal; holding $82,000–$84,000 is bullish, a volume breakout above $87,300 targets $90,000, while falling below $82,000 turns bearish. Mid-term focus is on U.S. PCE and rate decisions; only a macro easing can push it to $100,000 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 After Bitcoin surged to 86,500 and then pulled back, many people are asking if it has peaked. Actually, what matters is not how much it pulls back, but how this rally was driven. If it was purely pushed up by sentiment and retail FOMO, the pullback would indeed be risky; but this time the foundation is solid: expectations of rate cuts remain, liquidity is loosening, and institutions are continuously buying through spot ETFs. This money is for allocation, not short-term speculation. After the halving, miner selling pressure has also significantly eased, large on-chain addresses are still accumulating, fewer people are selling, and buyers have not left. So the pullback near 86,500 looks more like profit-taking. As long as it doesn't break key supports at 80,000 or 75,000, it's a rotation rather than a sell-off. Instead of guessing tops and bottoms, it's better to focus on three lines: ETF net inflows, large on-chain transfers, and macro liquidity. $BTC[Old Chive Observation] #SEC plans to revise crypto asset custody rules
Let's interpret this — trading tools are expanding, and custody rules are also being adjusted. The U.S. is gradually completing the full set of infrastructure needed for institutions to enter the crypto market.
On October 1st, the SEC officially proposed new crypto asset custody rules.
The core is not to let retail investors "self-custody coins."
Instead, it is to provide registered investment advisers and regulated funds with more compliant custody options.
These include:
Qualified state-chartered trust companies can provide crypto asset custody;
Under very limited conditions, investment advisers can also self-custody clients' crypto assets.
What does this mean?
Previously, when institutions wanted to allocate crypto assets on a large scale, besides "what to buy," they had to solve a very practical problem:
Where exactly to hold the coins to meet regulatory requirements?
This time, the SEC is providing new answers to this question.
Combined with the recently approved 3x BTC and ETH ETPs:
Trading tools are expanding, and custody rules are also being adjusted.
What the U.S. is promoting now is no longer just "letting institutions buy coins," but gradually completing the full set of infrastructure needed for institutions to enter the crypto market. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Trump's $5,000 "dividend," what is really worth paying attention to?
Trump recently stated that if the Republican Party wins the midterm elections, it will give every American citizen a $5,000 "Trump dividend."
Based on a population of about 316 million, the theoretical scale is close to $1.58 trillion.
But don't directly interpret this as a "BTC positive."
This is primarily a political promise at this stage, not a policy that has already been implemented.
What is truly worth focusing on is the fiscal logic behind it:
If such a large-scale expenditure is really needed in the future, it will inevitably involve fiscal deficits, bond issuance, and monetary system issues.
And this precisely connects with several recent macro themes discussed in the market:
U.S. fiscal deficit, debt expansion, inflation expectations, and monetary purchasing power.
For Bitcoin, the important thing has never been the single news of "whether the government will issue $5,000," but rather:
Whether fiscal expansion is becoming a market consensus again.
If liquidity is abundant, fiscal stimulus may be understood by the market as fuel for risk assets; if liquidity is tight, the same promise may be regarded as political rhetoric.
So this matter is more suitable to be placed within a macro observation framework rather than directly becoming a trading signal.
The news is just a catalyst; what truly determines market performance is liquidity.The non-farm payrolls surprised to the downside, turning into a bull trap. Data fell short of expectations, the market initially surged then plunged, giving a strong sense that the positive news has been fully priced in.
The Nasdaq's upward push was unstable and quickly gave back gains; the 7400 level remains the key dividing line between strength and weakness—failure to hold above it makes a sustained rally unlikely.
$BTC sharply rose from around 86000 to 87200, seemingly breaking out but actually a bull trap, followed by a plunge. Short-term moving averages have turned downward, with 84200 as short-term support; if broken, deeper correction may follow.
$ETH hit a high of 2777 before encountering a large bearish candle, erasing all gains and falling back near 2700. Bearish pressure is clearly increasing; if 2700 breaks, the next target is 2640.
$ZEC plunged straight down to about 1280 overnight, a big gift to the bears. However, after a sharp drop, beware of a rebound; chasing shorts requires caution.
The market never lacks opportunities, but patience to avoid chasing highs is scarce. The lesson from the non-farm night: positive news landing does not necessarily mean a buying opportunity. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 【On-Chain Trading Update｜NEAR】
Monitored address 0x8afa opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: $4.71
▪ Transaction amount this time: $99,990.48
▪ Leverage: 3x*October 3 $BTC Chinese Quick News Final Version - Current Price Around $85,300*
*🟠 Core Data - You Were Right:*
Nonfarm payrolls *+29K vs expected 90K, missing by 3 times*, previous value *162K→133K revised down*, July also revised from 21K to *-10K (negative growth)*. Unemployment rate *4.2% vs expected 4.1%*, wages *0.1% vs 0.3%*, *all 4 indicators missed expectations*. This is the third weakest employment report since 2026.
*📈 Price Reaction:*
$BTC *$83,900 → $87,229* surged, liquidating *$244 million shorts*, 24-hour volatility *5.1%*, 1.7 times that of the nonfarm day. Now it has pulled back to $85,333, *$87,500 is strong resistance, a stable break looks toward $90,000*.
*💵 Macro:*
October rate hike probability *64%→18%*, US 10-year Treasury *5.34%→5.2%*, 30-year at 5.573%. Rate cut is certain, but *it's not a rate cut, it's a pause in rate hikes*, so after the positive news is fully priced in, a pullback occurs.
*📊 ETF:*
This week inflow *$2.39 billion*, but today only *+$103 million* in a single day, $ETH ETF outflows for 3 consecutive days, indicating funds are only buying $BTC for hedging. Big Brother Maji's operations these days are simply legendary!
Precisely escaping the top at high levels, boldly entering at low levels, with total exposure fluctuating between 141 million and 165 million, this wave's rhythm is definitely worth reviewing 📊
$BTC
Initially holding 536 coins, with a slight loss, then decisively reducing to 369 coins, perfectly escaping the top.
After the market warmed up, he made a big purchase to 546 coins, then reduced again to 405 coins to realize profits.
Currently holding 390 coins, average holding price 84,700, liquidation price 71,600, the long-short rhythm is very well timed.
$ETH
Position fluctuates between 32,000 and 38,000 coins.
Previously locked in profits by precisely reducing positions at a floating profit of 2.18 million at the high; later reversed to increase holdings back to 37,000 coins.
Now the floating profit has been given back, actually a loss of 380,000, with daily funding fees burning 1.18 million, liquidation price 2,540.
$HYPE
Replenished from 200,000 coins to 226,000 coins, reduced at high levels to 179,000 coins, successfully turning losses into profits.
Recently continued to reduce to 169,000 coins, currently a floating loss of 230,000, liquidation price 57.
PUMP: Slight loss of 230,000, considered the "blood bag" of mainstream positions, can be briefly passed over.
💡Core logic of watching the whales:
Not directly copying trades, but perceiving the real market sentiment through position changes.
Taking profits at high levels means big money is actively guarding against pullback risks; adding positions against the trend means main funds are probing the bottom range.
Whale positions can only be used as a reference for funds, never blindly follow trades.
Go with the trend, protect your principal, always the top priorityNonfarm payrolls in September increased by only 29,000, with expectations around 90,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Once the data was released, calls for "rate cuts" resurfaced. But can a weak employment report really open the door to Federal Reserve easing? Probably not. Inflation stickiness, financial conditions, and officials' wording are the key factors. Currently, long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and the dollar has not clearly reversed; market pricing looks more like a "delay rather than a pivot."
Crypto leads the sentiment: $BTC reclaimed 86,000 and approached 87,000, $ETH rose from around 2,600 to near 2,750, and $SOL surged to 122, showing strong intraday resilience. However, behind the rebound, spot ETFs have shifted to net outflows, and incremental buying has not returned. Interest rates and the dollar remain heavy overhead pressures; this looks more like a technical correction after bearish realization, not the starting gun for a trend reversal.
One nonfarm payroll candlestick cannot change the macro script. If rate cut trades are to truly start, inflation, employment, and Fed rhetoric must resonate together. Short-term optimism is possible, but don’t mistake a correction for a bull market.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 BTC Market: The rebound is just a correction, don't mistake it for the start of a new bull market
Many rushed to heavily buy BTC when it pulled back from the low of 83826, but I'll get straight to the point: this is just a consolidation correction after a big drop, not a reversal.
Looking at this 15-minute candlestick chart, the Bollinger Bands have started to contract, and the price is grinding back and forth near the middle band. The first strong resistance above is at 86806; to truly reverse the short-term bearish trend, the price must hold above this level. The key support below is at 84227; if this level breaks, this rebound will be over, and bears will retest the previous low of 83826.
This kind of range-bound consolidation is the easiest to trap retail traders. Chasing longs often hits resistance and gets crushed, while opening shorts casually often meets support and triggers a rebound, causing stop-losses to be swept back and forth.
The most valuable skill in trading is not frequent entries but knowing how to wait. In a consolidation, don't guess breakouts; wait for the price to exit the range, then follow the trend. Before the direction is clear, trade light and use strict stop-losses; heavy positions betting on a one-sided move is like giving away chips.
So the question is, do you think BTC will gather strength to break above 86806 and open up rebound space, or is this a fake correction that will break below 84227 and continue downward? Share your views in the comments. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC Big Brother Maji's moves these days are simply legendary!
Precisely escaping the top at high levels, boldly entering at low levels, with total exposure bouncing between 141 million and 165 million — this wave's rhythm is definitely worth reviewing 📊
$BTC
Initially holding 536 coins, with slight losses, then decisively reducing to 369 coins, perfectly escaping the top.
After the market warmed up, heavily added back to 546 coins, then reduced again to 405 coins to realize profits.
Currently holding 390 coins, average holding price 84,700, liquidation price 71,600, the long-short rhythm is executed very well.
$ETH
Position fluctuates between 32,000 and 38,000 coins.
Previously locked in profits by precisely reducing positions at a floating profit of 2.18 million at the high; later reversed to add back to 37,000 coins.
Now the floating profit has been given back, actually a loss of 380,000, with daily funding fees burning 1.18 million, liquidation price 2,540.
$HYPE
Added from 200,000 coins to 226,000 coins, reduced at high levels to 179,000 coins, successfully turning losses into gains.
Recently further reduced to 169,000 coins, currently floating loss of 230,000, liquidation price 57.
PUMP: Slight loss of 230,000, considered the "blood bag" of mainstream positions, can be briefly mentioned.
Core logic of watching the whales:
Not directly copying trades, but perceiving the real market sentiment through position changes.
Taking profits at highs means big funds actively guarding against pullback risks; adding positions against the trend means main funds are probing the bottom range.
Whale positions should only be used as a reference for funds, never blindly follow trades.
Go with the trend, protect your principal, always the top priority You're right, this is the first high-intensity stress test, and it's even more intense than the $26.93 million day you mentioned.
*Actual situation:*
- *September 28: Outflow of $8.12 million*
- *September 30: Outflow of $30.25 million, the largest single-day outflow*, right around the $26.93 million you mentioned, yet after cumulative outflows there is still a *$268 million cumulative net inflow*
- *Current price $ZEC $1,287, down 3.6%, retraced 21% from the $1,698 peak*
*Why this is called the first stress test:*
1. *ZCSH was just launched on August 25*, previously a 2017 trust, bringing $260 million in old positions; by September 18 it surged to *$890 million in assets*, supported by $233M net inflows, and $ZEC rose from $480 all the way to $1,698, a +253% increase
2. *On September 30, a 1-for-3 split was done*, originally intended to lower the retail threshold, but after the split large redemptions occurred, indicating the split failed to stabilize selling pressure
3. The real external capital is only about $200 million, the remaining $100 million is the parent company DCG reallocating positions, so a $30 million outflow = 15% of real funds running out in one day, the pressure is indeed significant 11b2c8756479
*Comparison with $BTC:*
$BTC ETF still had a net inflow of $103 million today, while $ZEC ETF has turned to outflows, indicating the *stickiness of altcoin ETFs is far less than $BTC*.#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Many people see this rebound from 2646 and shout that the bottom is in and go long. Let me give my conclusion first: this is just a corrective consolidation after a decline, not a reversal.
Looking at the 15-minute chart, the BOLL Bollinger Bands have narrowed, and the price is oscillating near the middle band. The resistance above is 2758, which is the first hurdle. To truly turn bullish, the price must hold above this level. The support below is 2662; if this support is broken, this rebound will be declared over, and the bears will push down again to test the previous low of 2646.
The Supertrend line is at 2684.67, and the current price is fluctuating around this trend line, with bulls and bears battling here without a clear direction.
In such a narrow-range consolidation, chasing trades is the biggest taboo. Chasing longs can easily get crushed by resistance above, while chasing shorts can easily hit support and rebound. Consolidation markets often repeatedly trigger stop losses.
Remember the core of trading: do not guess breakouts during consolidation; wait for the direction to emerge before acting. Before a breakout, take light positions with strict stop losses; do not heavily bet on one side.
So here’s the question: do you think ETH will gather strength to break above 2758, or is this a fake rebound that will break below 2662 and continue downward? Share your thoughts in the comments. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $ETH Bitcoin's $85,000 sell wall just cleared. Traders are now eyeing $100K. 🎯
$BTC is nearing its highest level since January.
📈 Citi set a $113K target, expecting $5B more in ETF inflows
💰 ETFs logged $2.7B in September inflows
⚠️ Weak jobs data triggered $9.72M in liquidations, $BTC briefly swung from $87,200 to below $82,000
Clearing resistance while ETF demand climbs is exactly the setup bulls want.
$100K next, or more volatility first? 👇
#USNFPDataCools #BTCETHETFOutflows Reviewing yesterday's trades: I opened a long position at 85200, but it dropped to 84500 and hit my stop loss, losing 700U. I'm recovering from a 200,000U loss. Although I lost, I don't regret it because I strictly followed my stop loss and didn't hold the position. Looking back, the problem yesterday was opening the position at a bad entry point—near resistance, which was a counter-trend move. Today's BTC current price is 84558.2, resistance at 85000, support at 84000. I've learned my lesson and won't open longs near resistance anymore. Instead, I'll wait for a drop near the 84100 support level to open a long with 5000U, stop loss at 83900, target 84800. No holding positions without stop loss. Trading is about continuous review and improvement. $BTC #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 Third sister shares: "The car is too heavy to pull"
$ETH total network liquidations reached 574 million, with longs at 330 million and shorts at 250 million, the largest single BTC position at 11.72 million. Both longs and shorts got hit, no one escaped.
Yesterday morning, the market priced in the good news early, and then the non-farm payrolls pushed it up again at night. Everyone expected a strong rally. What happened? It surged then dropped, those chasing longs got buried, and those chasing shorts got stopped out.
Looking at the profit leaderboard, over 80% are longs. The car is too heavy, the main force can't pull it, so it can only wash back and forth. Only when no one dares to follow will a direction be chosen.
There is still no clear big direction. Could it be waiting for the midterm elections? Don't guess, wait for the signal. Manage your positions well; surviving is the key to the next move.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BICO This rebound is worth paying attention to. It was still around 0.0212 in the early morning, then returned to 0.0223 in the afternoon, a rise of about 5% between the two points, meaning at least someone bought back during this decline. I will first take 0.022 as the observation point. If it can hold on after falling back, and then move up, it will look more like a continued recovery.
But there is no need to rush to call a reversal now; the past week has still seen a slight decline. The biggest fear is that expectations get raised too high right after a rebound, only for the price to fall back again. Let's first see how much of this rebound can be maintained before deciding whether to raise expectations.
$SUI I am still cautious for now. Around noon it was near 1.146, lower than last night's 1.185, indicating that last night's rebound did not hold. Even if it bounces up later, first let's see if it can reclaim last night's level.
If it retreats again near that area, I won't be quick to expect the next round of gains. A large monthly increase does not mean a short-term pullback will end quickly.
$LINK has already returned to around 14, down about 3.5% in the past 24 hours, so there is no need to be too optimistic in the short term. However, 14 is just a round number, and a few cents up or down cannot determine the direction.
I am more focused on whether the rebound can return to around 14.2 last night and continue upward. If even this segment is hard to recover, then continue to watch more and act less. Before the market shows a clear move, there is no need to prearrange an upward trend for it.? Finally got some rest, but after sleeping a bit, I lost $10,000 on $SAND. I was so tired I forgot to close the position. I remember I only lost about $2,000 before sleeping, this is ridiculous. The fees also charged me $1,000, lost it. I'll keep the other short positions.
Now all the short positions are showing floating profits, $ETH at an average price of 2685.11 is also in profit territory, still holding on 🥱🥱. $BTC [Old Leek Observation] Medium Risk
$API3
API3 has launched AirnodeHub.
Simply put, it allows AI Agents to discover APIs, call APIs, verify data, and in the future, automatically complete USDC payments through x402.
This direction actually aligns well with the current trend of AI Agents + on-chain payments.
On September 29, API3's trading volume once reached about 5.21 million tokens, then noticeably cooled down.
Don't chase the rally, wait for a pullback to support.
Entry: $0.272–$0.290
Take profit: $0.310 / $0.330 / $0.355 / $0.390 / $0.415
Stop loss: $0.258
If volume picks up again and breaks through $0.295 without just a wick, this structure will truly start to look better.Brothers, tonight it's finally the Air Force's turn to hold their heads high! Recently, shorting was getting crushed by the dog whales every day, but today I finally took back both principal and profit! $ZEC short position: entry price 1,419.09, current price smashed down to 1,321.29, unrealized profit +797.85U, ROI up to +148.04%! This mad dog finally bowed down, it pumped me once before, but this time I held on tight, nearly 800U profit in hand, feeling so good I want to slap my thigh! $DOGE sNon-farm payrolls fell far short of expectations and failed to bring sustained buying pressure to Bitcoin. After the news was released, it quickly retreated, confirming a double top pattern on the daily chart with heavy selling pressure above. September non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000, well below the expected 90,000, and July-August figures were revised down by a total of 60,000. Before the data release, Bitcoin had a brief rally but quickly gave back gains afterward. This "good news fully priced in" pattern indicates the market had already priced in the possibility of the Federal Reserve slowing rate hikes, so the news itself provided no incremental momentum. If Bitcoin cannot quickly reclaim 86,000, the double top neckline will be tested: a break below targets 82,500 first, then 80,000. In the short term, don't rush to buy; first see if the neckline can be defended. $BTCYour observation of $84.6K / $2.68K is spot on; it's a *cooling consolidation after the rally*.
*October 3 market confirmation:*
- *$BTC around $84.6K*, the intense fluctuation you mentioned between $83.9K-$87.1K → that's the range from yesterday's non-farm payrolls $84,057.5-$87,238.3. Now after $85,333 it dropped back to $84.6K, firmly holding $84K which is correct, but the key is your point that *$85K must be reclaimed*. If it can't hold above $85K, it's a false stability and a real drop.
- *$ETH around $2.68K*, yesterday peaked at $2,777 → retraced to $2,675 → today a slight recovery to $2.68K, syncing with $BTC, but $2.7K is resistance, matching your key area.
*Is this consolidation before the next wave starts? I think so, but there are two types:*
*1. Strong consolidation = $BTC holds $84K + reclaims $85K*
If tonight $84,057 holds + US stocks don't crash, and $85K is reclaimed with volume, this is a *second buildup after the false breakout at $87,238*, with the next target still $87.2K-$88.8K.
*2. Weak consolidation = $84K breaks*
The $84K level above is now false, the 15-minute moving averages have already crossed bearish. If $84,057 breaks, $BTC will directly target *$83,100-$82,800* With this drop in $BTC, what really matters is not how much it has fallen, but whether $84,000 can hold!
Currently, $BTC is fluctuating around $84,500, having once surged above $87,000 during the day before quickly falling back, indicating that selling pressure above remains heavy.
Next, I’m focusing on two key levels:
$84,000 is the short-term boundary between bulls and bears; if it holds here, there’s still a chance for a rebound to retest $86,000–$87,000; if it breaks below and fails to recover, then support near $82,000 should be watched.
In this kind of market, chasing highs or selling lows can easily lead to being shaken out.
I prefer to wait for confirmation at key levels before deciding the next move.
The more $BTC oscillates repeatedly, the more important it is to watch the critical price points. Blob data will expire; data availability and permanent storage are not the same thing.
Rollups put compressed transaction data into Blobs, which can reduce the relative cost compared to calldata. The Ethereum protocol guarantees that this data can be accessed and verified by the network within a fixed window, but Blobs are not permanent archives. According to ethereum.org, the current query window is about 18 days, after which long-term storage must be handled by other services. This design meets verification needs: challenges and confirmations occur within a limited time, so not all nodes need to store every batch of temporary data forever. It also reminds users that data availability at the time of publication does not mean it can be downloaded from any node at any time years later. Teams needing historical analysis, auditing, or service reconstruction must arrange additional storage. For $ETH scaling, reducing the burden of permanent storage helps protect node accessibility, but the ecosystem still needs to build reliable historical retrieval. Availability answers "can it be verified at the time," while retrievability answers "can it be recovered later"—these two should not be confused.
If long-term data services are left to only a few providers, research and auditing will still create entry dependencies. Therefore, temporary data offloading and historical public access need to be developed separately.$CORE is a scheme meticulously planned over seven years, chilling to think about.
This is not an ordinary case of cutting leeks; it's a textbook-level long-term trap. The team understands human nature thoroughly, setting up legal barriers early on and slowly attracting countless people into the scheme.
This anti-human nature scheme has three layers:
① Free airdrops numb everyone; signing in to receive coins seems like a freebie, but the project side exchanges it for massive traffic, consuming participants' time over years;
② The main entity is registered in the Cayman Islands, restricting users from the US region, laying a legal escape route from the start;
③ Constantly refreshing the narrative to cover up the continuous decline in coin price.
Browsing the community, many deeply trapped people beautify the soft exit as decentralization. Losing millions of principal down to just a few hundred, people dare not face reality and can only rely on new narratives to support their last hopes.
The core of decentralization is dispersed chips, but on-chain data is clear: the vast majority of tokens are held by the project team, so the so-called decentralization is just empty talk. No institution dares to enter to pump the price; once the market rises, the project team can dump massive chips anytime, harvesting the savings of ordinary workers.
They promised to burn over 100 million tokens; where is the burn address? The incident report is silent, and the transfer of 60 million tokens has no follow-up recovery.
They keep painting big promises to keep everyone hanging. When doubts arise, deeply trapped people will actively defend the project—not because they can't see clearly, but because they dare not admit huge losses.
⚠️ Risk reminder: The above is only personal opinion sharing. Virtual currencies are not protected by domestic laws, carry extremely high risks, and do not constitute any investment advice. I first got involved in the crypto space in early May 2021. Back then, I knew nothing and followed a friend to go all in with 5x leverage on Dogecoin. Unfortunately, Elon Musk's comment calling Dogecoin a scam shattered my youthful dream. I returned to trading again in May this year. Luck was on my side with ultra-short-term trades, and overall I made profits every month. When September came, the market surged and I earned 5000 USD in less than a month. Unexpectedly, I got overconfident, ignored my principles, and kept opening positions. Then a sudden spike in the market turned my profits into big losses. I got overconfident again and went all in with 50x leverage on ZEC, getting repeatedly liquidated and losing more and more. My mindset completely collapsed. I lost profits, but more importantly, I lost time, spirit, and rationality. I thought I could control my emotions, but human nature is really hard to overcome. I'm not afraid to start over, but I'm already terrified that if I continue, I'll just repeat the same mistakes. $SAND liquidation data is worth noting.
In the liquidation chart, the potential long liquidation volume dominates, indicating an environment where longs could be targeted for concentrated liquidation.
If the price falls to the 0.052‑0.053 USDT range, over 4 million USD worth of long positions on the OKX platform alone would trigger liquidation.
On the other hand, short position costs are not low; the 4-hour funding rate is -0.6219%. While the price slightly declines, the open interest is increasing.
The decline accompanied by short position additions and the sustained negative funding rate will also pressure shorts with holding costs, making the battle between both sides very intense. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $SAND's pattern is a bit small, but it's best to secure profits. It might dip down to the previous low of 0.07141 to clear out high-leverage long positions, then pull back up. You can place a long order at the previous low.$BTC The current sideways price level is exactly the bottom of the previous sideways range! The support has turned into resistance.
This is probably a less favorable trend for the bulls.
It's the weekend now, with reduced trading volume, so the sideways period is expected to last longer. When trading volume picks up on Monday and a direction is chosen, positions accumulated over the weekend in a relatively dense price range will be liquidated, inevitably causing sharp spikes.
This almost always happens after every sideways phase, so it depends on which direction the market chooses to break out.
Judging by the current trend, the probability of a downward move seems higher.
Last night's false breakout and the previous support level being breached have forced me to temporarily side with the bears.
Currently, I'm watching whether the more critical level at 82800 will break, as there was very strong support at this level before. Also, around 83500, there is significant support capacity.
I believe the price is likely to continue downward but will not experience a complete collapse. Nonfarm payrolls fakeout, sideways grind: if you haven't entered, just wait; if you're trapped, don't panic 🔥🔥
The nonfarm data was a cold surprise. The market expected a rally but ended up with a classic fakeout—funds used the good news to spike prices, then took profits and fled, leaving a choppy mess behind.
BTC is oscillating around 84,000, and ETH is stuck hovering near 2670, unable to break up or down, just circulating existing funds.
The logic behind this market is simple:
- If you haven't entered, don't rush to open positions. With unclear direction and no new funds entering, chasing highs or selling lows just pays fees to others. Waiting and staying out of the market is not shameful; being flat is a valid strategy.
- If you're already trapped, don't stress. It's no big deal. Sideways consolidation early in a bull market is meant to shake out weak hands and test patience, not the end of the world. As long as your position size isn't heavy and your logic holds, don't let a single candlestick sway your emotions.
The nonfarm hype has faded; don't expect a one-sided trend in the short term. Trade less, keep your cool. Act when you understand, wait when you don't. The market never lacks opportunities; it lacks people who can keep their composure and preserve capital. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $BTC $ETH $SOL Today I saw everyone start talking about $NEAR again
My previous impression of NEAR was that it was an old L1 with fast speed and cheap Gas
Actually, NEAR Intents has currently accumulated over $30 billion in transaction volume, covering 35 chains.
What it wants to do now: tell the system "what I want," and the complicated steps are handled in the background for you.
Recently, Ondo Stocks has also joined in.
Users can use assets like BTC, ETH, SOL, etc., to enter tokenized stocks and ETFs from 30+ chains.
One step further, there is Confidential Intents:
Even your order direction, amount, and execution process are kept as private as possible to reduce MEV and front-running.
NEAR seems to be transforming from a single chain into an execution layer behind other chains.
However, the recent $3.8M security incident still had a significant impact.
Fortunately, the money was eventually recovered. Complexity can be hidden in the background, but risk cannot.
This path from L1 → Intents → multi-chain infrastructure is worth paying attention to At 3:17 a.m., the ventricular fibrillation waves on the monitor were finally suppressed back to sinus rhythm—$3.8 million lost blood was reperfused into circulation, the wound was sutured, and the exploration ended. But I will not take off my mask here.
This lesion grew at the anastomosis between Omni access infrastructure and smart contracts. This is not a rupture of a main vessel, but an inherent structural defect of the anastomosis itself—like a congenitally anomalous myocardial bridge, usually silent, but once hemodynamics change, it compresses the lumen. Its own mainnet, the aorta, showed clean angiography. This must be recorded in the operative notes: no aortic dissection does not mean there are no wandering emboli in the peripheral circulation.
What truly deserves recording is the speed of hemostasis. Identifying and contacting the responsible party within 24 hours—what does that mean in a surgical context? It means that preoperatively, transesophageal ultrasound and continuous perfusion monitoring were already installed. That intelligent protective layer called SHIELD is their intraoperative monitoring, not a postoperative analgesic pump. Most teams encountering this kind of bleeding first open the chest to explore, relying on their fingers to feel the rupture; being able to get on the table within 24 hours is already considered a rapid response.
But successful hemostasis never equals organ survival. Reperfusion injury after hemorrhagic shock often manifests six to twelve hours after blood pressure recovery: influx of oxygen free radicals, opening of mitochondrial permeability transition pores, myocardial stunning. The true delayed effect of this event is not on its own balance sheet but in the immune memory of the entire circulatory system—once the endothelium is activated, the coagulation threshold changes next time.
Switch the camera to the neighboring table. XPL lies on another bed; it was not directly hit by this event but shares the same extracorporeal perfusion circuit. When the endothelium function of the entire market is under stress, any vascular injury raises systemic vascular tension. Its linkage is with perfusion pressure, not myocardial contractility. Confusing these two leads to misreading hemodynamic fluctuations as myocardial necrosis. Once the direction of medication is wrong, it is fatal.
It saved the circulation on its own side. The patient at the neighboring table is still waiting for their angiographic catheter to be in place. #nearfundsrecovered *Latest $BTC update on the afternoon of October 3rd, current price $85,333*
*1. Data:*
Nonfarm payrolls *29K vs expected 90K*, unemployment rate *4.2% vs 4.1%*, hourly wages *0.1% vs 0.3%*. October rate hike probability *29%→17%*, 10-year US Treasury yield *5.34%→5.17%*.
*2. Price:*
$BTC *$85,333.9*, intraday range *$84,057.5-$87,238.3*, surged to $87,238 then dropped 1,900 points. 15-minute moving average turning down, resistance at $85,500 and $86,000, support at $84,057.
*3. Funds:*
ETF net inflow only *$103 million*, IBIT +$196 million. Sell wall of 20,000 coins at $85K-$85.5K, $1.2 billion short options at $87K, volume shrinking.
*4. Operation:*
*Do not chase or bottom fish*, wait for 15-minute candle to close above $85,500 with volume to confirm stabilization. If holding $84,057, target $86K; if broken, target $83,800.
*In short: Positive news fully priced in, price surged then pulled back, wait for stabilization amid volatility, control position size.*Many people think trading relies on prediction, but actually trading relies on response. Losing 200,000 U and recovering, I used to guess the ups and downs every day. When I guessed right, I was complacent; when I guessed wrong, I stubbornly held on, resulting in bigger and bigger losses. Later I realized that prediction is not important, response is what matters. Now BTC current price is 84558.2, resistance at 85000, support at 84000. I don't need to guess whether it will rise or fall, I just need to place a long order near 84100, open a position with 5000 U, stop loss at 83900. If it reaches, I trade; if not, I wait; if wrong, I cut loss; if right, I hold. This is the essence of trading. $BTC #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Bitcoin and Ethereum currently cannot be fully confirmed as either the early stage of a bull market or the last rebound before the bear market bottom. All directional conclusions must wait until early November to be judged. By that time, it will basically fall to a low area, either the weekly lower support line or the three-day lower support line. At this stage, shorting can only be done with light positions to test the waters; absolutely no heavy short positions. There's no need to rush into long positions either. Be patient and wait for the support level to be clearly established before taking action. Chasing gains and losses back and forth now is more likely to get hit from both sides.This move by the chess king is a brilliant restraint played in an endgame where two pawns have already been lost.
486,532 units delivered, five percentage points higher than the market expected. The market's original setup was 462,000, but the opponent's response came a step earlier. However, a true master doesn't just look at this move—last year's same period was 497,099 units, a year-over-year decline of two percentage points. What does this mean? It means he is not expanding his advantage but holding the draw line in a disadvantageous endgame and conveniently recapturing a pawn.
Production was 464,391, lower than deliveries. Inventory is being consumed, signaling the controller is actively shrinking the pawn chain. The most dangerous thing on the board is not having fewer pieces but having scattered pieces. Clearing out inventory is equivalent to consolidating scattered pawns into a coherent chain, building momentum for the next midgame struggle.
The stock price rose five percentage points intraday, reaching $372, closing at $465. This is a typical tactical breakthrough—not a strategic checkmate, but a move that gains positional advantage after exchanging pieces. The premium the market pays is essentially for the term "exceeding expectations," not for "growth." A grandmaster's eyes must clearly see this distinction: expectation gaps are short-term moves, while year-over-year growth is the long-term endgame.
October 21 is the full quarterly earnings report. That is the real turning point to midgame. The current five-point rise is just an opening pawn probe; the real heavy pieces have not yet entered the battlefield.
Now shift your focus to another board—the tokenized targets in the U.S. stock market. Moves in traditional capital markets are being mapped onto the on-chain game. What kind of linkage will Tesla's data create on the tokenized board? The key lies in liquidity depth and leverage structure. If the on-chain holdings are top-heavy and bottom-light, then a five-percentage-point spot market shock will amplify into a flanking blitz on the futures market.
Those bullish think they have the initiative, but true masters know that initiative does not equal winning advantage. Market sentiment is most easily baited by the opponent with a sacrifice at the peak. Currently, if on-chain funds are following spot gains with leverage, it is an advance of hollow pawns—looking imposing but actually lacking reinforcements.
I don't care how many points it rose today. I only care: after this expectation gap is fully digested, does the bulls have a second attack plan? If not, then $372 is the top pawn on this path, unable to promote further.
The real endgame is never at the press conference but in the profit and loss statement on October 21. And the on-chain mirror market will reveal the true intent even earlier. #teslaq3deliveries