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Brothers, the Iranian foreign minister is making statements again, saying the Strait of Hormuz won't open until conditions are met. My reaction after reading this—here we go again.
How many times has this been said? If it really mattered, BTC would have crashed long ago. Instead, it bounced back to 85000; the market is already immune to this kind of rhetoric, shouting alone can't shake the market.
So the bears shouldn't be too confident. Until 825 breaks, the direction hasn't emerged at all; it's too early to talk about trends. Right now, it's just a huge box between 825 and 870, ridiculously wide, and the volatility is just wild.
ETH is even more frustrating. It hovered around 2696 all day, with a 24-hour high of 2697.9 and a low of 2677.4, just a $20 range, and a slight intraday increase of 0.59%.
Looking at 4-hour and 1-hour charts, it's consolidating at the top of an ascending channel, with bulls slightly dominant. But there's dense trading volume between 2700 and 2720, and a volume breakout hasn't come yet.
My take: BTC is in wide-range volatility, ETH is slightly bullish in consolidation, and no one should rush to take sides. If someone tells you it's time to be bearish now, let them wait until 825 breaks first.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Around 85.1K, the long-short divergence of $BTC has become clearer: one scenario views the 83K area as a buy-the-dip point, waiting for support before rebounding; the other scenario thinks chasing longs near the previous high has a poor risk-reward ratio and prefers to wait for a pullback confirmation. These are all unverified trading plans, not trend facts.
Kraken quotes about 85.1K, with the price approaching the upper range again. My personal market observation is that a volume-increased close above 85.1K favors the bullish scenario; if it falls below 84.7K, the pullback scenario takes precedence. I will not bet prematurely before price decides between these two paths, nor treat high leverage signals as opportunities.
The real decision still lies in the close and the pullback: will you follow after 85.1K confirmation, or defend after 84.7K breaks? For information sharing only, not investment advice.Bull market: confirmed.
Bitcoin closed above its 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2023 — the line that has called every bull market since 2019.
Next resistance: $88K–$90K.
On-chain data called this in mid-August. Bitcoin's cleared its supply wall.The next few days could get interesting for altcoins.
$PROVE unlocks ~$4.2M today.
$ENA follows with ~$40.2M tomorrow.
$NAME is the real outlier: ~$56.7M, equal to more than 74% of its current market value.
Unlocks don’t automatically mean selling.
But when unlocked supply becomes huge relative to market cap, even moderate selling can have an outsized impact.$CT perpetual 20x short position, opened at 0.5156, currently 0.4926, floating profit +89.21%.
The logic is simple: the 0.515 integer resistance was tested three times without breaking, volume decreased, clear top pattern. Finally waited for a bearish candle to short. 20x leverage, stop loss at 0.52. The movement is very smooth, no chance for a rebound.
Trailing stop moved to 0.50 to lock in profits. If volume breaks below 0.48, can hold a bit longer.
$ETH $BTC #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 $NIGHT is up roughly 91% in seven days.
And it isn’t just a one-day spike.
The token is now around $0.049 — its highest level in roughly six months.
What’s unusual?
Cardano itself has been down about 5% over the same period.
NIGHT is moving independently of its broader ecosystem.
The upcoming v8 upgrade is now the catalyst to watch.$MUBARAK feels like it’s nearing the end of its compression—next move could be explosive either way. 👀
I’m already in, so now it’s simple: either I get wiped, or $0.02 becomes the exit target. 😂
Key zones: • $0.069 — breakout trigger
• $0.065 — first support
• $0.063 — major support
A failed breakout followed by weakness could send it lower fast. Watch OI and volume closely.
$ZEC $CT
#BessentTreasuryYields #NEARFundsRecovered #NEARFundsRecovered $PONS
Does holding 0.4 mean the bottom is confirmed?
Today's observed 24-hour range is 0.4—0.4358, with a window change of about -2.76% and a trading volume of approximately 8 million USDT.
The lowest price is an observation boundary, not a guarantee; holding it once may only be a temporary support. Multiple pullbacks that can still raise the lows provide more evidence of a bottom.
If the price later breaks above 0.4358, holds on a pullback, and trading volume cooperates, I will raise my judgment on continuation; if it falls below 0.4 and the rebound fails to recover, I will lower my judgment. The above boundaries come from this observation window and need to be rechecked as the market changes.$HYPE just got a serious vote of confidence.
Hyperliquid Strategies bought another 1.9M HYPE worth ~$167.2M.
Its total holdings are now around 37M HYPE, valued at ~$3.26B.
And HYPE is still below its previous ATH.
The interesting question:
How much supply can a buyer of this size absorb if the market stays sideways?$BCH perpetual 50x long position, opened at 311.1, now at 318, floating profit +110.89%.
I've actually been watching this trade for quite a while. The 311 level was repeatedly tested but never broken; every time it approached this area, there was buying support. After confirming the bottom was valid, I decisively went long on the bullish candle. Using 50x leverage, position size pushed to the extreme.
Currently floating profit is +110.89%, and the trailing stop has been moved up to 315. Not greedy, locking in profits first.
$ZEC $ETH #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 Today I was flipping $PONS V2 and saw something that completely stunned me.
Originally, to prevent launch bots, it would charge a maximum 99% anti-sniping tax in the first few seconds after launch, then quickly drop to 0 within about 5 seconds. That sounds reasonable, at least preventing bots from sweeping up the new coin immediately at launch.
The problem is: the project creator can exempt up to 32 addresses from this tax.
On-chain analyst Wazz recently tracked 53 token projects on Robinhood Chain and believes the same operation has siphoned off at least $18.43 million. The Block itself reviewed 10 of the PONS V2 projects and found that 9 showed similar situations: the creator first exempts 15–25 addresses from tax, then these addresses almost instantly buy together at launch, directly consuming the curve, and in the end, the creator plus these exempt addresses can get 82%–86% of the supply.
It was only when I saw this that I realized.
What I used to fear was bots front-running, but now I see the biggest danger might not be "who runs fastest," but "who doesn’t have to pay the entry fee from the start."
Of course, the $18.43 million total is currently Wazz’s statistic; The Block has not fully independently recalculated, so I won’t outright condemn all PONS V2 projects. $ATOM ATOM rose 2.78% to $1.77. But what’s really worth watching isn’t the price, it’s the smart money’s position: top traders hold 59.3% long, with a long-short ratio of 1.46. This isn’t retail FOMO; it’s institutional-level capital actively accumulating around $1.75. ATOM has risen above all major moving averages—7-day, 20-day, 50-day, 200-day. The technical structure is aligning, momentum just hasn’t ignited yet. Gauntlet’s second reform phase focuses on dynamic inflation, and Wells Fargo will launch Cosmos tokenized deposits this fall. The structure is changing; price is just the shadow. In 2-3 years, it might be out of reach.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 A Bitcoin address dormant for 13.1 years just woke up, holding 801 BTC worth ~$68.3M. It moved 43 BTC in what looks like a test transaction before the full transfer. Ancient whales rarely move without a reason and this one predates the 2013 rally. Your read?
$BTC Brothers, ETH is now at a position that's uncomfortable both up and down.
The current price is $2693, hovering right in the middle. Looking down, 2559 is the first hurdle; if it really drops 5% to that level, a bunch of high-leverage long positions will be liquidated immediately. Looking up, 2801 is a major threshold; if it rises 4% to that point, high-leverage short positions will be wiped out.
The liquidation danger zone above is closer to the current price, meaning if it really moves up, shorts will be liquidated first.
There are two small traps below: 2478 and 2323. Above, there are two major checkpoints: 2814 and 2983.
These levels are calculated based on public prices and open interest contracts; this doesn't mean the price will definitely reach them, nor is it a prediction of rise or fall, so don't misunderstand.
Compared to 24 hours ago, ETH has quietly risen 0.57%.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Lately I've been watching ZEC every day, and I almost forgot about $xMRVL.
So I checked what Monero has been up to recently. Wow, on October 5th, it also has a big move.
The beta stressnet for FCMP++ and CARROT is going to undergo a new round of hard fork testing.
To be clear, this is not an immediate upgrade to the XMR mainnet tomorrow.
But FCMP++ is something I think privacy coin users really should pay attention to.
Currently, Monero hides a transaction by basically hiding the actual spent XMR among 16 candidate outputs, so you don't know which one it is.
FCMP++ wants to go even further.
It plans to expand this range directly to all qualifying outputs on the entire chain, which currently exceeds 150 million.
From 16 to over 150 million.
My first reaction when I saw this was:
Bro, you're not just enhancing privacy a bit.
You're planning to flip the table😭
And this has been in development for over two years now; it's no longer just a PPT stage. The stressnet has already reached v3, and P2Pool has just released a test version compatible with FCMP++ / CARROT.
Of course, there's still some distance before it goes live on the mainnet.
Monero's official roadmap still marks FCMP++ and CARROT as In Progress, and there are still many unfinished tasks in the related hard fork milestones on GitHub.
So it's definitely wrong to hype "XMR's epic upgrade tomorrow."
But I've been thinking about one question recently:
After ZEC reignited the privacy track this round, who can take the next baton?
If XMR successfully pushes FCMP++ to the mainnet, I think it will at least give a very strong answer:
While others are still debating whether privacy is needed,
Monero has already started researching how to hide you even deeper😭
Let's first see if the test on October 5th can run smoothly.
I'm planning to keep an eye on this.
For personal organization only, not investment advice, DYOR.📊 Daily Brief｜2026-10-04
🌐 Market Overview: Total crypto market cap around $2.98T, up about 2.2% in 24h; trading volume about $91.6B, significantly expanded compared to previous period. ₿ BTC around $84.8K–85.3K, up about 1% in 7 days, BTC Dominance about 57.5%, funds starting to spread to some strong altcoins, but not yet a full altcoin season.
🏦 BTC ETF: Net inflow about $82.9M this week, inflows on 4 out of 5 trading days, but sharply down from $2.39B last week; IBIT remains the main buyer. The fund flow is bullish but with reduced intensity.
🔥 Bull Score: 70/100
🪙 Altcoin Season: 57/100
⬆️ BTC breaks $90K: confirms a new main uptrend, can increase risk positions;
⬇️ Pullback to $82.8K: normal fluctuation; $75K is an important zone to observe for adding positions; if weekly closes below $70K, then significantly reduce risk.
💵 Recommendation: Crypto 80% / USDT 20%.
🚀 Potential Coin: MORPHO
One sentence today: BTC has not entered the bull tail; altcoin rise looks more like funds starting to spread from BTC to high-quality DeFi, AI/identity sectors; the focus now is not chasing the rally, but holding strong assets, reducing weak high-risk positions, and waiting for BTC to truly break $90K before increasing aggressiveness. Day 43 of the $ZEC short saga, 47 days to go. 😂
$ZEC is back near $1,334, showing stronger momentum than the majors. $1,345–1,360 is the key resistance zone, while $1,300 and $1,283 are the levels I’m watching below.
$BTC has ETF support but looks overheated, while $ETH is still mostly following BTC.
ZEC looks strong, but chasing the short here feels risky. Patience > forcing a trade. 📊
Not financial advice. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BessentTreasuryYields #NEARFundsRecovered
#G7OilReserveRelease Why Block Reorganization Risk Is Related to Extreme MEV
Under normal circumstances, validators continue to produce blocks along the established chain because abandoning the latest block results in lost time and rewards. However, if a historical block contains an abnormally large extractable value, newcomers may be motivated to reorganize the chain to compete for that profit. Although the probability is low, it reveals a principle: when the revenue from a single block far exceeds the normal reward, economic incentives may begin to challenge consensus stability.
Ethereum's finality, slashing rules, and broad validation increase the cost of reorganization, but they are not a magic that makes "any amount impossible to shake." The protocol needs to limit the temptation of extreme profits to consensus, and applications should avoid exposing huge, replicable profits in a single atomic transaction. $ETH security depends not only on the total stake but also on the relative relationship between attack gains and penalty costs.
Ordinary users do not need to worry about chain reorganizations for every arbitrage; what truly deserves monitoring are abnormal block values, consecutive reorganizations, and delays in finality. Incorporating tail risks into design is more reliable than claiming they will never happen. The advantage of a mature settlement layer is not the absence of economic attack surfaces but the ability to continuously identify incentive imbalances and keep attack costs long-term higher than potential gains.#VanEck: Bitcoin May Continue to Expand Market Share
Mid-term Intelligence Brother analyzes for everyone
VanEck is bullish on Bitcoin's share; the core reason is not that "altcoins will die," but that institutionalization is making $BTC the "core position" in crypto assets.
Spot BTC ETFs, corporate treasury purchases, and sovereign/central bank reserve narratives are concentrating funds from long-tail tokens into Bitcoin; ETF custody and a high proportion of long-term holders tighten circulating supply, structurally supporting BTC's market share.
But don't misinterpret this as a short-term one-sided surge
Long-term share expansion has fundamentals; short-term depends on ETF flows and macro liquidity validation. Altcoins are not without opportunity, but within institutional allocation frameworks, they are likely to continue being compressed into "satellite positions."
$ETH
$HYPE
#The Fed and ECB will release September meeting minutes A professional way to read the market: $BTC indicates whether the capital is staying in crypto; $ETH shows if the capital is expanding into the ecosystem; $SOL reflects the level of risk acceptance; $XRP reveals the strength of a separate narrative branch. When all four signals align, altcoins may enter a phase of strong volatility. When BTC rises but ETH, SOL, and XRP weaken, be cautious of FOMO. ETFs remain data worth monitoring because capital flows can change rapidly session by session. Capital flow is more important than slogans.🔷 Billions are returning, but premiums have disappeared
• Crypto companies are raising billions, but without premiums
• Kalshi: $1 billion at a $40 billion valuation (twice May's level)
• Blockchain.com: $500 million IPO, valuation $4-6 billion (vs $14 billion peak)
• DWF Ventures: only 4 out of 20 crypto treasuries trade above NAV
🧠 The industry is attracting capital, but rationally. Kalshi gets a premium, Blockchain.com is 3 times below its peak. Crypto treasuries are not working
❓ Will premiums return?👇
$BTC $BTC perpetual 100x long position, opened at 84545.9, now 85102.6, floating profit +65.84%.
84,500 support is solid; every time it approaches this area, it seems like there is buying pressure holding it up. Confident in a successful bottom test, will go long directly on a bullish candle breakout. 100x leverage, very small position, stop loss at 84,000.
Currently +65.84%, trailing stop at 84,800. Profit secured, mindset calm.
$ETH $ZEC #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 On Sunday night, BTC was quoted at about $85,140. Looking at the price alone, one might think there’s nothing much to say today, with less than 1% fluctuation in 24 hours and the candlestick resembling a nearly flat line with slight ripples. But there are several data points worth noting. BTC’s total open interest in contracts across the network decreased by 6.05% in 24 hours, currently totaling about $54 billion. The funding rate is close to neutral or even slightly negative, meaning the current $85,000 level is not being propped up by leveraged longs but is a natural result formed by the spot market. Open contracts denominated in Bitcoin have dropped to their lowest level since March, nearly 20% lower than in August. In other words, speculative chips are systematically clearing out, which is a quite healthy signal in the middle of a bull market.
Also, the SEC approved the first batch of 3x leveraged crypto ETPs on Friday. Although formal trading still requires completion of registration procedures, the regulator’s intention to expand compliant leverage channels is clear. On the other hand, spot ETF inflows have noticeably cooled compared to earlier periods, with a net inflow of about $82.9 million last week, far below the $2.39 billion of the previous week.
My personal feeling is that BTC is currently in a "low-volume consolidation" phase, and the trigger for directional choice will most likely come from the return of liquidity after the holiday. It is recommended not to make directional bets and to patiently wait for volume confirmation. The low volatility over the weekend does not mean the risk has disappeared; it is just accumulating strength for the next move. Staying clear-headed is more important than chasing gains. $BTC $ETH $XAUT #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 Brothers, BTC and gold are both going down, I’m just holding on. This market is really volatile.
On Friday, despite such a big positive non-farm payroll report, Wall Street simply didn’t take the bait. US Treasury yields made a V-shaped rebound back to previous levels, gold pulled up a bit then fell back to support and kept grinding.
BTC is even worse, a fake breakout followed by more traps, no decent rally at all, all bull traps. On Friday, BTC spot ETF had a net outflow of 268 million, and a bunch of longs got trapped in the 86000 to 86500 range.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, it’s still consolidating, but after seven consecutive daily green candles, the daily chart closed with a shooting star, a classic fake breakout plus double top.
But then again, even if the technicals look bearish, when sentiment kicks in, no matter the pattern, it can still violently rally to new highs, and you have no say.
I myself got liquidated at 92000, now I’m numb. The shorts are eating the longs’ margin, once that’s gone, liquidation follows, no other way.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 $TRUMP perpetual 50x short position, opened at 2.07, currently at 2.028, floating profit +101.44%.
The logic is very simple: the 2.07 round number resistance was tested three times without breaking, volume decreased, showing clear top characteristics. Finally waited for a bearish candle to short. 50x leverage, stop loss at 2.1. The movement is very smooth, no chance for a rebound.
Trailing stop moved up to 2.04 to lock in profits. If volume breaks below 2.0, can hold a bit longer.
$ZEC $SOL #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 OKX
$AVAX
Avalanche’s competitive edge is its flexibility around application-specific blockchain infrastructure, but that creates an important measurement problem: ecosystem growth can become fragmented across many environments. The bullish case requires those networks to generate meaningful economic activity rather than simply increasing the number of deployments. Watching real users, liquidity, and application demand may tell us more than headline launch counts. Analyzing the potential risks currently facing $BTC for everyone
Glassnode says that people in the 89,000 and 97,000 cost zones are cutting losses;
Ali points out weakness before 87,200, whales are selling over 30,000 coins during the rise, support is seen at 82,500.
Kalshi gives only a 14% probability of breaking 100,000 by 2026, sentiment is cold.
Bitdeer sold out 292 coins, a 16-year-old whale transferred over 5,000 coins, all signals of cashing out or repositioning.
My view: still expect institutional bottoming, the point to add positions is after selling pressure is fully released.
$BTC NVIDIA $NVDA stock price volatility next week will hold above 235 and break through 260
CME, in partnership with Silicon Data, will launch innovative trading tools for computing power futures on October 5, featuring two combined contracts: Silicon Data H100 Leasing Index and Silicon Data B200 Leasing Index futures, regulated by the NYSE. The time to fiercely seize computing power pricing rights has arrived $ETH I'm back again, I'll leave once I make 100U. Mainly because I hold too many coins right now. $XAU $SPCX and PURR, way too many.
Holding these, here are my thoughts:
First, XAU has relatively small volatility; the funding rate is mostly positive, which is unfriendly for long positions, and I happen to be long; the long positions are too crowded. So, I'll try to avoid this in the future.
Second, SPCX must be sold before the weekend because the US stock market is closed, causing very little volatility; it's better to trade ETH over the weekend.
Third, PURR is affected by hype and the US stock market, with very low trading volume; after this trade, I won't do it anymore.$LIT perpetual 50x long position, opened at 3.5221, now at 3.6027, floating profit +114.42%.
I've actually been watching this position for quite a while. The 3.52 level was repeatedly tested but never broken; every time it approached this area, there was buying support. After confirming the bottom was valid, I decisively went long on the bullish candle. Using 50x leverage, the position size was pushed to the extreme.
Currently floating profit is +114.42%, and the trailing stop loss has been moved up to 3.58. Not greedy, locking in profits first.
$ETH $BTC #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 801 coins, dormant for 13 years.
My first reaction when I saw this news was not "a dump is coming," but admiration.
What does 13.1 years mean? Bought in 2013, when $BTC was only a few hundred dollars each. It went through several bull and bear cycles, many people had long exited, but this address remained untouched.
Roughly calculated, 801 coins are now worth over 68 million USD, while the original cost was probably just tens of thousands.
What’s really worth noting isn’t how much money this is, but that it has moved now.
An old address waking up always triggers the market’s first reaction: "Is it going to sell?" But honestly, just this activation alone doesn’t prove anything. It could be a wallet change, a private key recovery, or just a test.$ZRO
LayerZero’s biggest strength is also its biggest challenge: interoperability becomes valuable only when different networks genuinely need to communicate. More chains can expand the addressable market, but fragmented liquidity, security assumptions, and competing interoperability protocols remain serious obstacles. The long-term test is whether LayerZero becomes neutral infrastructure for cross-chain applications rather than another temporary messaging narrative.$JTO
Jito is an interesting case because its ecosystem sits close to Solana’s staking and MEV infrastructure rather than relying purely on consumer-facing speculation. That gives the project exposure to network-level activity. At the same time, infrastructure tokens face a valuation challenge: strong protocol usage does not automatically mean equivalent value accrues to the token. That distinction matters
OKXAXS current price is 1.385, and chasing longs at this level has very poor cost-effectiveness. In the past 24 hours, the so-called top institutions and leaders' statements have brought no substantial new developments, still revolving around the old themes of data sovereignty and decentralized governance, lacking direct catalysts for the market. The order book is more realistic.
I just parked the car by the roadside and returned a debt collection call, then looked back up at the liquidation chart. AXS accumulates a large amount of long liquidation pressure between 1.38 and 1.41; a price surge in this range will directly trigger selling pressure. Meanwhile, the MACD has shown a bearish divergence at the top, RSI has entered the overbought zone, and upward momentum is clearly weakening. Under this structure, a rebound into the pressure zone is a shorting opportunity.
For operations, the entry range is set between 1.39 and 1.41, with a stop loss above 1.43 to prevent false breakouts from triggering stop losses. Take profit is initially targeted near 1.28, which is a dense long liquidation area and likely to form support for a rebound. The risk-reward ratio is sufficient; do not chase orders, wait for the rebound to provide a position. $AKE perpetual 20x long position, opened at 0.03273, now at 0.03469, unrealized profit +119.76%.
The logic is simple: the 0.0327 whole number support was tested three times without breaking, volume increased, and the bottom pattern is clear. Finally, a bullish candle appeared, so I went long. 20x leverage, stop loss at 0.031. The movement is very smooth, no chance for a pullback.
Trailing stop moved up to 0.034 to lock in profits. If the volume breaks above 0.035, I might hold a bit longer.
$ETH $BTC #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Yesterday, after I said I opened a short position on $ZEC, several fans asked why:
In short, it boils down to one sentence: success and failure both come from regulation. I think $ZEC is facing a double blow from regulation and valuation.
Regulation is because of the BG hack where 3.9 million ZEC dirty funds entered the privacy pool, but no one can be directly traced on-chain.
Previously, everyone said ZEC found a balance between regulation and privacy, being both private and compliant with regulatory requirements. Now it's getting serious. If it fails this big test, the previously hyped compliance will just be empty promises.
As for valuation, the data speaks for itself: in recent days, $ZEC has seen $60 million outflow from ZCSH, and AUM dropped from a peak of $1 billion to $818 million. This shows institutions are using real money to hedge risks.
Regarding technical analysis, under the big picture of fundamentals, it becomes relatively less important.$ETH intense battle between bulls and bears: giant whales are buying, ancient whales are moving, who are you following? 🔥
On-chain data doesn't lie: in the past week, ETH giant whales have counter-trend increased their holdings by about 60,000 ETH, worth $162 million, while Bitcoin giant whales reduced their holdings by 30,000 BTC in the same period. Since September 2, a whale has accumulated 12,134 ETH at an average price of $2,671, then directly deposited them into Aave to earn interest.
On the other hand—an ancient whale who purchased 560,000 ETH at $0.31 in 2015 transferred $356 million worth of ETH in a single transaction again after 4 years. Any movement of low-cost chips could trigger selling pressure. 
ETH is currently trading above 2700 USDT, with dense trapped positions between 2600-2800. Citibank just raised ETH's 12-month target price from $2240 to $3028. Glamsterdam upgrade is expected to activate in Q3, with the mainnet gas limit raised to 200 million and TPS target aiming at 10,000 transactions. 
In the short term, if 2700 holds, 2850 is expected; if it breaks below 2680, watch out for support at 2360.
Position size determines mindset, don't let emotions trade for you.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Looking at the market today, Liuda E found BTC has been sideways for three days. Current price $85,160, up 0.37% in 24 hours. High $85,425, low $84,555, fluctuation range less than $900. Trading volume $151 million—down 84% from $940 million on the nonfarm payroll day. Same three days ago: $84,863, $500 volatility, $373 million turnover. Moving back to the previous day: $84,109, $3,300 volatility, $942 million traded. Volatility gets smaller, trading volume decreases. This is called "shrinking volume sideways trading." There's a saying in trading psychology: the longer the sideways sideways, the higher the vertical ones. Contracting volume sideways isn't about directionlessness, it's about holding in direction. Once they can't hold back, they choose a direction to break out, and the breakout is highly volatile. Why does the market consolidate with shrinking volume? There are three reasons. First, the non-farm payroll data is digesting the market. Nonfarm payrolls only increased by 29,000, and expectations for no rate hike in October are heating up. But the market isn't sure if this expectation is correct, so everyone is watching and waiting; no one wants to heavily bet on the direction. Second, the balance between bulls and bears has shifted. The bulls think that without a rate hike in October, BTC will push toward $90,000. The bears think $87,000 is strong resistance and has failed to break through after two attempts. Both sides believe they are right, so they are waiting for the other to make the first move. Third, the weekend effect. Weekends are naturally low in transactions, and without new catalysts, the market becomes even quieter. The altcoins are rebounding. TAO rose 4.74%, NEAR rose 4.44%, ZEC rose 1.92%, BNEAR at $4.85, do you dare to chase it?
From 1.89 to 5.54 in one month, ETF net inflows of 52.8 million in the first three days, nearly tripled — but on-chain execution layer fees plunged from 120,000 per week to 20,000. Price is rising, business is shrinking. Are you chasing real demand or a castle in the air?
First, look at the surface: doubling in a month, ridiculously strong.
It was 1.89 on September 1, closed at 5.34 at the end of September, surged to 5.54 on October 1, now retracing to 4.85. Up 125% in 30 days, clearly stronger than BTC, showing relative strength from the AI + cross-chain narrative. Market cap around 6 billion, Binance perpetual positions at 257 million, up 4% in 24 hours, 8-hour funding rate +0.01% — bulls are paying. The candlesticks tell you: daily is still above all major moving averages, 50-day MA remains above 200-day MA, RSI dropped from above 70 to a strong 65 zone. Daily bulls are alive, short-term digesting overbought.
First point: This rally is not about Gas business, but the "cross-chain solver".
Many think NEAR is rising because on-chain activity returned. Big mistake.
Execution layer fees dropped from about 120,000 per week at the start of 2025 to about 20,000 now. A drop of 83%.
So why is the price rising? Because of NEAR Intents. Cross-chain transactions have accumulated over $27 billion, covering more than 30 chains, now accounting for about 85% of protocol revenue. Subsidies burning relay transactions are gone, native activity declined, and token burn has fallen from highs.
In plain language:
NEAR’s current valuation bets not on how many people use this chain, but on how much it can earn as a "cross-chain matching intermediary".
The price is rising on the "solver," not "Gas." This narrative is good, but you need to know what you’re buying.
Second point: The ETF is real, but its scale doesn’t explain the entire rise.
Bitwise’s NEAR spot ETF (NRR) is trading on NYSE Arca, with net inflows of about $52.8 million in the first three trading days. The fund also stakes holdings to share yields with holders. This is a formal institutional channel, a long-term positive without question.
But note — from 1.89 to 5.54, nearly tripled, market cap surged from 2 billion to 6 billion. Can $52.8 million explain this rise?
No.
So in this rally, the ETF is a catalyst, but the real driver is expectations: a supply reduction vote is on the way, a governance proposal aims to cut annual issuance from 2.5% to 1.6%, to be completed in 24 months, roughly reducing about 66 million NEAR tokens released. But this is an expectation; the vote is tentatively set for mid-October and not finalized.
You’re buying not what has happened, but what hasn’t happened yet. Ponder this sentence three times.
Third point: The technicals have reached a critical decision point.
From 5.54 dropped to 4.55, tested bottom twice, today pulled back to 4.85. 4.85 is near the 7-day MA, just below the first resistance — this is the rebound center, not the main uptrend start.
Daily ATR about 0.5-0.6 dollars, piercing two levels in one day is normal. The 4-hour retracement is not finished yet.
Only two paths ahead:
Daily close above 5.08 and hold → repair and upgrade, target 5.27-5.40, only talk 6.0 after surpassing 5.54
Close below 4.55 → this wave changes from "retracement" to "deeper correction," look at 4.47, deeper is the 4.00-4.10 moving average cluster
4.85 is neither a good long entry nor a good short entry. It’s the middle ground — the place most likely to get repeatedly slapped.
Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself:
On the bullish side:
Daily bullish structure intact, 50-day MA above 200-day MA
ETF formal channel open, 52.8 million inflow in first three days
Intents cross-chain transactions over $27 billion, 85% of protocol revenue
Supply reduction vote on the way, pre-implementation expectation
Perpetual positions increasing, positive funding rate, bulls paying
Doubled in a month, clearly stronger than BTC
On the bearish side:
125% rise in 30 days, large profit-taking pressure
On-chain execution layer fees plunged 83%, native activity down
DeFi TVL just over 100 million, narrative ahead of on-chain lock-up
Double resistance at 4.94/5.08, previous high 5.54 close but hard to break
Supply cut still a proposal, vote may be rejected
BTC in 83,000-87,200 range, breaking 83,800 high beta first retraces
CPI/FOMC/PCE triple hit coming
Key level 4.85, resistance above 4.94, support below 4.55.
Resistance above: 4.94 → 5.08 → 5.27-5.40 → 5.54 (previous high) → 6.0
Support below: 4.71 → 4.55-4.64 (strong support) → 4.47 → 4.17 → 4.00-4.10
Trading strategy
This is the rebound center, above is 4.94/5.08. Wait for 4-hour close to hold 5.08 with volume, then look at 5.27-5.40, stop loss below 4.78. Only talk 6.0 after surpassing 5.54. Chasing the middle is just giving money to the market.
Buy on dips (better risk-reward):
Prefer to wait for 4.55-4.64 to show a long lower shadow stop, then scale in, stop loss below 4.42. First target back to 4.94, hold then look at 5.08. Much better risk-reward than chasing 4.85.
Short-term shorts only on resistance:
Rebound 4.94-5.08 with volume upper shadow, 4-hour close can’t reclaim, light short, stop loss above 5.15, target 4.64/4.55. Don’t guess the top at 4.85 middle, daily MAs still below.
Invalidation conditions (must remember):
Daily close below 4.55 → exit longs
Supply cut vote rejected → breakout above 5.08 downgraded
BTC effectively breaks 83,800 → relative strength will be suppressed
Not suitable for high leverage overnight before CPI
NEAR leverage should be lower than BTC, single trade risk controlled within 1% of account. High volatility coin, over 5x leverage prone to liquidation.
You think NEAR is rising on on-chain business, but it’s actually rising on ETF expectations + cross-chain narrative + supply cut imagination space
$BTC $ETH $NEAR HYPE no longer plans to stick to just its own chain for daily operations.
On October 2nd, Wormhole officially announced that HYPE has been deployed via the NTT standard onto three chains: Solana, Base, and Unichain. Holding and trading no longer require routing back to the original chain.
This deployment is not just for show. On Solana, the Wormhole version of $HYPE has already accumulated about $66 million, with daily transactions worth millions of dollars on Jupiter; Unichain is even more direct, with Uniswap funding subsidies—USDC/HYPE pools distribute 2,872 UNI weekly.
Previously, buying HYPE had only one path; now users on three chains can onboard directly, expanding distribution channels from one to four.
There are also precautions to keep in mind: cross-chain operations rely entirely on the Wormhole bridge. The bridge’s stability ensures spillover stability. With the entry points established, the next focus is whether each chain can handle the volume.Good afternoon, brothers, I am Bai Qing, determined to become a genius teenager in the crypto circle!
Currently on the 39th day of compounding starting with 500U, total assets around 3000.
$ETH It's the weekend, no market activity as usual, no significant movement. Looking at the trading volume, it has dropped to 1.5 billion, the lowest I've seen in all this time playing. What is going on? Clearly abnormal, there must be a big change coming soon. I've basically maxed out my position, just waiting for the flowers to bloom! Whether it's a mule or a horse, we'll see in the next few days. Let's do this, brothers, good luck!The $CORE official website shows 2,228 bitcoins staked. How many of them can be withdrawn? It is said that the 99.99% crash from the peak happened because the staking bridge was closed, locking all the staked bitcoins. Otherwise, at the current price, it would be impossible to keep so many bitcoins staked.$HYPE perpetual 50x long position, opened at 87.893, now at 90.082, floating profit +124.52%.
Honestly, this trade was opened quite comfortably. It was clear that below 88 it wouldn't drop further, a double bottom rebound scenario. When the bullish candle pulled up, I went long immediately, setting stop loss at 85. With 50x leverage and a very small position, it never looked back and just took off.
+124.52%, moving stop loss to 89. In this market, bulls are the way to go.
$ETH $SOL #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Brothers!! I really can't take it anymore!
Going all in short on $PUMP with 340,000 USDT!!
Dog whales have been pumping for so long, no pullback yet?
Short position is already open! I'm waiting for a crash!!
$PUMP is now around 0.00628
The 24-hour high has already hit 0.006601
Almost a 9% increase in one day
It was pulled up all the way from around 0.0037
Every time it pulled back a bit in between
Someone immediately bought it back up
I admit it's really strong
But here's the problem
It's been strong for too long!!
Now if you randomly ask anyone in the market
They all think a pullback is a chance to get in
They all think it can keep going up
That's when I start to get scared
What usually happens at times like this?
Everyone is waiting for it to keep rising
Then the dog whales suddenly dump down
Everyone who chased the highs starts to run!!
So this time I'm not waiting
Going short directly!!
My entry is around 0.0056785
The current mark price is about 0.00628
Position size is 340,000 USDT
Floating loss is already over 30,000 USDT
Return rate is close to -100%
Honestly
Seeing this number is definitely uncomfortable
But what I'm really watching now isn't the floating loss
I'm watching the 0.0066 area
It already touched 0.006601 today
And then?
It didn't keep pushing up hard
It shrank back to around 0.0062
That makes me want to wait even more
If you're really strong
Then don't linger here
Break through 0.0066 directly Tencent reportedly spent about $7 billion to sign a 5-year lease, packing around 100,000 advanced AI chips into multiple Oracle data centers in Southeast Asia.
Insiders say the down payment is about 30%. FT reports this is Tencent's largest overseas lease, with computing power used for model training and intelligent agents.
Neither party has publicly confirmed.
Under U.S. export controls, advanced chips are hard to bring into China, so overseas leases become a workaround.
ByteDance and Alibaba remain major clients of Southeast Asia data centers; competition continues.
I think this is solid proof of ORCL cloud + AI computing power spillover, not just a PPT narrative.
Orders only count when they reach racks, power, and chips.
Tencent's Q2 capital expenditure surged about 176% year-on-year to around 53 billion yuan, indicating ongoing computing power hunger.
Leasing demand is not a one-day trend; the fulfillment pace and utilization rate are the variables to watch next.
Friday close was 142.30/+3.06%, open 142.09, high 144.86, low 140.26, volume about 35.41 million.
The high point was tested then pulled back.
Watch without chasing; if it holds around 144.86, look for continued bullishness; breaking below about 140.26 would invalidate it.
Don't treat unannounced deals as finalized.
Do you trust the lease will materialize, or will you wait for official announcements before acting?
$ORCL $MSFT $NVDA
#OpenAI plans $1.4 trillion valuation raising $30 billion
#Nvidia stock hits new all-time high, market cap nears $6 trillion$MORPHO
Morpho represents a different DeFi model from traditional lending markets, emphasizing permissionless and modular infrastructure. That architecture can make lending markets more adaptable, but it also shifts responsibility toward market design and risk management. The important fundamental question is whether this flexibility produces durable borrowing and lending demand rather than temporary liquidity attracted mainly by incentives. #贝森特：The rise in US Treasury yields aligns with the global trend
This official's remarks have shattered much of the market's hopes for a rate cut. In his view, the rise in US Treasury yields is not a temporary disturbance but reflects the global environment. As yields rise, borrowing costs increase accordingly, putting significant pressure on gold and Bitcoin, and oil prices will also be dragged down. Many bulls betting on easing have instantly become cautious.
BTC current price 85255
Short-term resistance at 86700, the first hurdle for bulls to break through; chasing longs here is likely to get crushed; 87500‑88300 is a heavy resistance zone, with many short stop losses stacked, making a short-term breakthrough unlikely. Short-term support at 83400‑83800; holding this range allows for continued consolidation; 81600 is the bulls' last stronghold, and falling below it would cause the market to turn bearish.
Gold current price 4146
Short-term resistance at 4190; rebounds to this level will likely face rejection; 4230‑4260 is packed with short positions, making it a tough barrier to cross. 4080 stabilizes the short-term market, while 4030 is the lifeline for medium-term bulls.
Brent crude oil current price 101.8
Resistance at 103.6, a daily intraday barrier; 104.8‑105.5 is a previous level where repeated attempts to rally have failed. Support at 100.2 maintains short-term strength; breaking below 98.6 will trigger a correction phase.
This kind of official rhetoric is quite impactful, often causing sharp spikes that trigger stop losses. Don't chase impulsively; focus on key price levels to avoid losses. Maji is playing the position game on another level 😂
~$19.7M account, but nearly $147M in positions with ~15x leverage, mainly across $BTC, $ETH, $HYPE and $PUMP.
He’s actively trimming strength and adding weakness while keeping a bullish core.
But don’t copy blindly, brothers—his capital and risk tolerance are a completely different game. 😂
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BessentTreasuryYields #OKXNOW：SeeWhat'sNext #SECCryptoCustodyRules 大饼有点跃跃欲试想向上冲的意思啊！并且突破了三角形和85011的阻力，但是你看下方红框圈出的上涨量能实在是太弱了。 况且今天还是周末不确定性太高了，就地反弹在去摸前高或者创出更高的高点我只能踏空，只能等大饼回踩84379-83828找底部信号去做多。 各位同学请记住周末要么没波动，要么大波动，而且周末的行情大多数时候都是假动作。 大饼能保持在85011上方运行下一个上涨目标位就是85702和前高了。 看小白框圈出的位置，大饼有没有回调有回调，回调有出现结构的破坏吗？没有出现结构的破坏，结构的破坏点在哪里？ 下方黄色箭头所指的位置82501才是结构的破坏点。 虽然小白框圈出的位置出现了回调，有出现更低的低点吗？没有吧！ 只有跌破82501才能出现更低的低点，大白框圈出的这段小时级别的多头趋势才会出现结构的破坏，才能说小时级别的多头趋势终结了，没跌破82501之前做空只能吃回调，因为没有出现结构的破坏所以做空不能格局。 但是我做多我可以拿趋势单，因为现在还是多头趋势。 大饼带量突破85278右侧追多激进派上，84493带量跌破反抽无法收回右侧追空，带好止损。 大饼小时级别突破站稳85278BTC current price is 85113, with the 85000 level clearly under pressure. The MACD histogram is contracting, RSI is approaching overbought, and short-term momentum is lagging. On the liquidation map, 85000 is a convergence zone for longs and shorts, and there is a dense cluster of long positions at 84313. Once the liquidation pressure on these longs is triggered, it will fuel an accelerated downward move. That new Hyperliquid address is chasing longs with 7x leverage on 121 BTC at an average price of 84918, currently floating a loss of $20,000, trapped right after entering. Such novice positions are the easiest liquidation targets. Within 18 hours, large transfers of 211 BTC plus over two thousand LTC have quietly changed hands on-chain, which is not a good sign.
Just finished inspecting the underground garage, now back in the pavilion to refill the thermos with hot water.
In terms of trading, I lean bearish. Enter short positions in batches on the rebound between 85300 and 85600, with stop loss above 86000. The first target is 84313; if broken, look for 83500. Don't rush to take long positions; wait until the liquidations near 84313 are cleared and see if there is a stabilization signal. Defend the 86000 level; if price stands above it, it means bulls still have strength, and then admit the mistake and exit.
$BTC
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势
@OKX星球