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The cryptocurrency market has basically completed the transition to an upward trend cycle
Tracking changes in loss supply and profit supply is a useful method to measure the overall market trend.
So far, at the bottom of each down cycle, the loss ratio and profit ratio briefly coincided, and when the market turned to an upward cycle, these two lines separated again.
This time is no different.
One difference is that in the past bottoms, the Bitcoin price was below its actual price
while this retracement ended at a relatively shallow level.
Nevertheless, given the overall situation, it is reasonable to believe that the market is currently in the process of transitioning to an upward trend cycle. $ETH $BTC
Bitcoin evaporated $300 million in a single day; this market is a pure bull slaughter.
$300 million liquidated in 24 hours, nearly 90% are bulls trying to catch the bottom. This forced liquidation-triggered chain stampede shows the market hasn't bottomed out yet; bears still hold absolute dominance.
The price is still struggling around 82,000; don't think you can jump in to catch the dip. Above are all the chips trapped by recent liquidations; any rebound is their chance to escape, creating huge upward pressure.
As for when it will truly stabilize, wait for the signal. #BTC spot ETF records the largest single-day net outflow in nearly three and a half months On October 7, the US BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $487 million, marking the largest single-day outflow since June 25. BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARKB had outflows of $208 million, $105 million, and $102 million respectively, with none of the 12 products showing net inflows. The previous day still had a net inflow of $119 million, but October has turned to a net outflow of $163 million.
I think this is more of an emotional sell-off under macro pressure, not a trend reversal. Don't rush to bottom-fish in the short term.
Looking at the data: The Fed minutes are hawkish, with possible rate hikes later this year. US Treasuries, the dollar, and oil prices are all high, putting pressure on risk assets. But JPMorgan estimates that crypto overall has seen about $50 billion inflows this year; long-term funds haven't fled, it's the short-term leverage that has exited.
From the market perspective, BTC dropped from 84,000 to 80,400, now rebounding to around 81,900, but the rebound lacks volume and moving averages are still suppressing it. 80,000 is the short-term lifeline.
If it breaks below, it will continue to test lower; if it holds, it will be weak consolidation. Wait for volume to pick up and break above 82,500 before talking about stabilization. $BTC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #跟着OKX打卡2049 It has been falling for a day, will BTC crash? Will it continue to drop sharply?
Here’s my view:
First, even if it breaks the support at 82,500, if it recovers within 3 days or oscillates for a while before recovering, the bullish trend still holds, similar to the previous consolidation phase (can be referenced appropriately, the principle is the same).
Second, judging from the fifth wave rise, BTC’s current pullback is only near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Although BTC has fallen below the 82,500 support, as long as the demand zone low around 80,000 is not broken, it could be a short trap set by the whales. It’s normal for the price to retest the demand zone during an upward move.
In summary: these next few days are very critical. If it directly breaks below 80,000 and fails to recover, the probability of falling below 75,000 later becomes very high. Otherwise, it may oscillate below 82,500 for a few days and then likely rally back up around next Wednesday’s CPI data release, forming a V-shaped recovery. So don’t count this market dead yet; let’s keep tracking it. According to my logic, the breakout at 82,800 hasn’t gained much, not even 10% space, so it shouldn’t sharply pull back below 75,000. Otherwise, most shorts would have exited, and those who profited from shorting in the bear market would see 82,800 as resistance to short again, targeting below 60,000 or even below 58,000. The whales want to squeeze these big players. We just need to manage risk well. The current position is awkward, but time will tell. It won’t take long; CPI will be released next Wednesday. $BTC $ETH $SOL The first time I bought crypto was when a friend messaged me late at night saying it would be too late if I didn't get on board.
I was so tired at the time, but I still got up to register an account.
It took a while—verification, linking a card, transferring funds—it was overwhelming.
The little $BTC I bought turned red the next day.
I panicked inside but didn't dare to hit sell.
Later, it dropped even more, so I just deleted the app.
After a few months, I reinstalled it and found it was still there, just a bit less.
That's when I realized that not holding on is more tormenting than buying wrong.
Later, I tried to learn about $ETH and saw how others used it for various things.
Honestly, I didn't understand many terms at first, so I looked them up slowly.
As I researched, I stopped just watching the price.
Every day in the group, some shouted about hundredfold gains, while others cursed project teams for running away.
I rushed in twice and ended up being the bag holder both times.
After the pain, I learned to split my positions smaller.
Now I hold a little $SOL as an observation position.
If it rises, I don't add; if it falls, I don't top up to the point of sleeplessness.
The rest of the money goes back to life—paying rent, eating, buying things I like.
For me, virtual currency is more like a mirror.
It reflects how greedy I am and how scared I am.
If I have to share a lesson, it's not to mistake luck for skill.
Don't borrow money, don't go all in, don't trust those who guarantee profits.
Earnings come from the market; losses you have to accept yourself.
Looking at the market fewer times a day actually makes life more normal.
That's it—all nonsense I paid real money for. #跟着OKX打卡2049
#霍尔木兹通航降至两月低位，油价跳涨4%
#全球长期国债收益率升至多年高位 The exit of BWOW might be the last stone to fall in the DOGE ETF market. On October 14, this fund, which has been listed for less than ten months, will have its final trading day. Approximately 8.2 million DOGE holdings will be converted to cash on that day, and after the distribution is completed on October 22, it will bow out.
The selling pressure sounds scary, but when broken down, it's another story. The scale, timing, and pace of this sell order are all detailed in the announcement, and the market has spent over a month digesting the expectations. It’s not an unmeasurable panic sell but more like a bill with a fixed amount that, once paid, ends the matter. The moment the exit is completed, the supply hanging over $DOGE disappears.
What’s more worth noting is the landscape. After BWOW’s exit, the DOGE spot ETFs decrease from four to three: GDOG, TDOG, and DOJE. The track hasn’t disappeared; one competitor has left. The funds and attention that were scattered around start to concentrate in the hands of the survivors. For those holding DOGE exposure, the exit of a competitor is not a signal that demand has vanished but the beginning of a reshuffling of market share. After October 22, the three-way competition on the board is worth a fresh look.Daily Report for 10/9
Today Trump gave Iran a timeline: he said the US and Iran are having productive discussions and there will be no attacks on Iran before the November 3 midterm elections. US and Brent crude oil prices plunged $2 after hearing this, but still rose over 2% intraday.
However, the same news also has another side. The US added new sanctions on Iran, targeting 17 oil tankers; US media reported the military is preparing a forceful plan, which Trump has repeatedly vetoed, and three aircraft carriers are about to be deployed to the Middle East. The Iranian president said that every time after talks they get hit, but they will not leave the negotiating table.
Tech stocks had a rough day today. British media reported that OpenAI's annualized revenue is $20 billion lower than previously reported, causing US tech stocks to fall; Samsung also plans to cut phone production by 30% due to profit compression from rising memory prices.
On the Fed side, Waller said rate hikes are still needed but not necessarily consecutively, and Mussailem said there may be more hikes in the next 6 to 9 months. The UK 20-year government bond yield also reached 6%, the first time since March 1998.
#MiddleEastSituation #FederalReserve #OpenAI与Anthropic估值竞赛升温 $DOGE dropped quite decisively yesterday. On the 4-hour chart, the candle at noon on 10/08 fell 5.2%, with a trading volume of 26M, the largest volume in the past couple of days, accompanied by a high-volume long bearish candle that directly broke through the 0.0870 level. This is not a wick; someone actively pushed it down.
Since the drop, the 30-minute chart has been consolidating with shrinking volume, each candle's volume just over 1M, an order of magnitude less than during the sell-off. The drop had volume, the rebound lacks volume—no new funds are entering to catch the dip, it's just that selling pressure has temporarily paused, not a reversal signal.
Currently at 0.0849, the resistance zone above is 0.0850-0.0865; it needs volume to break back above to be considered stable. The support below is the low of 0.0810 from the sell-off; if broken, it could head to 0.0790 or 0.0750.
$BTC $ETH #霍尔木兹通航降至两月低位，油价跳涨4% Brent crude oil directly broke $104/barrel on October 8, rising nearly 4% intraday. Coupled with Middle East supply risks and US offshore oil and gas production halted due to weather, Europe's natural gas inventory is already significantly lower than the same period last year, making the winter energy buffer completely insufficient.
Now oil prices, natural gas, and food prices are all surging upward together, and the slightly eased inflation is clearly about to rebound. The bond market can't hold on anymore; the UK 30-year government bond yield directly broke 6%, hitting a 28-year high, France's 10-year government bond touched 4.87%, and Germany's also surged to 3.53%.
Currently, global commercial oil inventories are less than 6 billion barrels, most of which cannot be directly utilized, and the buffer cushion is almost gone. The shadow of the European debt crisis might really reemerge.ETH 2488.89｜2500 lost, short-term not yet stabilized
ETH has fallen steadily from around 2700, and after breaking below 2500, short-term bears still dominate. The key now is not whether it can rebound immediately, but whether 2480–2500 can reestablish support. Only if it recovers and holds above 2500 is there a chance to rebound to 2550–2600; if 2480 is lost, attention should be paid to support near 2400.
For contracts, first watch the 2480–2500 range. Failure to rebound and hold above 2500 indicates selling pressure remains; if it breaks below 2480 and continues weakening, downside space may further open. But after continuous declines, beware of sharp rebounds—do not blindly short at the most emotionally charged moments.
The capital flow has not yet signaled a reversal: the US spot ETH ETF saw net outflows of about $202 million on October 6 and about $161 million on October 7. Consecutive outflows indicate institutional demand remains under pressure. Meanwhile, BTC also broke below 83K, and overall market risk appetite is cooling.
Before 2500 is regained, ETH seems more like it is searching for the next support zone rather than confirming a bottom.
This is only a market opinion and does not constitute investment advice. $ETH $ENA
Opinion from this ID: After the purple platform above was broken downward, the price kept falling until it stopped and stabilized at the 0.194 level. It is now a pullback rebound after the decline. Do not directly treat this as a reversal trend; currently, it can only be defined as a low-level correction. The resistance above still exists, and after the rebound meets resistance, the possibility of a second downward test remains significant.
Entry: When this rebound rally shows weakness and the candlestick forms a turning signal, you can set up short positions.
Stop loss: If the price climbs back above the upper purple central zone.
Chan Theory structure: On the 30-minute level, the previous central zone completed a downward breakout, forming a full downtrend. The current upward rebound is only a secondary correction within the downtrend. The price has not returned to the old central zone, the major bearish structure remains intact, and no sufficiently strong reversal signal has appeared.
Wyckoff volume-price observation: The previous sharp drop showed a significant increase in volume, fully releasing bearish selling pressure. In contrast, this rebound's volume release is insufficient, with no signs of active large-scale capital inflow, indicating a passive correction after the price has bottomed.
Core observation: Focus on how this rebound impacts the upper resistance. If it fails to break through, the trend is likely to weaken and decline again. Watch the battle between bulls and bears in the candlesticks near the resistance level closely.Yesterday afternoon I asked here: Is 82.2 a fake breakout spring for a real buy, or is it a new low with the drop still ahead of CPI?
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
Answer: Another drop came overnight. The 82227 I mentioned yesterday afternoon was definitely not the bottom — at 11 PM the lowest hit 80905, with 1438 BTC traded, the largest single trade that day; at 1 AM it probed down to 80400 again. Now it’s grinding back near 82100, like it’s trying to patch up that fake breakout from the daytime, but the low point has already shifted to 80.4k.
The money flow doesn’t look good either: According to Farside’s data, after a net outflow of 485 million from BTC spot ETFs on 10/7, about 239 million more was reported outflow on 10/8 (just FBTC alone was about 197 million; IBIT’s data for that day is still missing, so the full number might be revised). Two consecutive days of outflows — the hot debate is still about “why price drops despite inflows,” but actually in the last two days it’s been outflows.
My plan: Mark 80400 as the overnight low for now; if it can’t reclaim 82.2, I won’t chase longs; if it breaks below 80k again, those holding shorts will be more confident. The next real window is still the CPI on 10/14.
$BTC
Where are you standing now: A) 80.4 is the pit bottom spring, a place to start waiting for a rebound, or B) just a new low, with the drop still ahead of CPI? Comment below, I’ll reply one by one.Bought continuously for three weeks, but yesterday lost it all in one day.
BTC spot ETF had the largest single-day net outflow in three and a half months yesterday. The day before, people were still talking about whales stopping and three weeks of continuous buying, but today the leaderboard changed.
Don't rush to call it a retreat; let me break this down.
First, look at the timeline. Three weeks of continuous buying, whale selling pressure weakening—this is slow money paving the way. Then last night, a leveraged liquidation of 1.19 billion occurred, BTC plunged to 80,351 in one sharp move, and today the ETF recorded the largest single-day outflow.
The sequence is clear: it wasn’t the long-term money running first, but the leverage that blew up first; the ETF outflow is emotional contagion.
Hot money usually stays in budget hotels and checks out at the slightest disturbance; the long-term money building positions doesn’t change its mind so quickly.
Now look at the price. After hitting 80,351, it immediately pulled back to 82,000, indicating someone was buying at that level—it’s not a sell-off with no demand.
My own yardstick hasn’t changed: one day is just stepping away, continuous days mean retreat.
Three weeks of real money won’t turn because of one day’s emotion, but if tomorrow still shows net outflow, this judgment must change. This yardstick has saved me before and also misled me.
A 5.3% yield is weighing overhead, the minutes are still hawkish, and no money is cheap now.
At times like this, it’s not about who shouts the loudest, but who can hold steady. Bottom-fishers always ask where the bottom is—the bottom is in the hands of slow money.
What do you all think—is this a checkout or a turning point?
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 $BTC $ETH $ZEC From yesterday to today, panic sentiment in the entire crypto circle has almost reached its extreme. Everyone is fixated on negative news flooding the screen: the U.S. government transferring billions worth of BTC, Federal Reserve officials hawkish overnight, international oil prices violently surging past 105, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Coupled with BTC's extreme movement from 86,000 down through 82,000, directly hitting the 80,000 mark, the entire network is unanimously bearish, with widespread calls for 70,000 and crash warnings everywhere. But I monitored the market all night, combining the latest on-chain data and macro news, and discovered a core truth that 90% of retail investors don't understand: this plunge has never been a trend crash but a textbook-level macro washout plus leverage clearing. Most people only see the panic from the sharp drop but overlook the reversal signals hidden in the market after the negative news landed. This is why the moment of peak panic is precisely when short-term risks have been fully released. First, clarify the most fundamental misconception and don't be misled by market sentiment. Many blame this drop on the "U.S. government dumping the market," which is the biggest cognitive trap. The latest on-chain data shows that the 12,300 BTC transferred by the U.S. government in 24 hours are all judicially confiscated assets used for case compensation and liquidation, not a "strategic reserve sell-off" caused by market panic. It should be noted that the 328,000 BTC strategic reserve locked by the U.S. government remains untouched with zero movement or sales, so the core foundation is completely intact. More importantly, this batch of confiscated coins has been transferred in batches in an orderly manner since the end of September, not a sudden negative event. Over the past ten days, the market has already fully absorbed this selling pressure, this round of downWhen I came across the news that Securitize was bringing 12 US stocks onto Solana, I was replying to work messages, and my finger froze mid-air.
Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon— all familiar names. Each stock token is backed 1:1 by actual shares, settled through USDC, with liquidity provided by Jump Trading. Ferrari's tokenized stock RACE also launched on Solana these days, and Backpack plans to expand tokenized stocks from 200 to 10,000.
I was stunned for several seconds.
To be honest, when I previously saw terms like "tokenized US stocks," my first reaction was that it was a gimmick. But this time it's different. Securitize is tied to Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the NYSE, and their product is set to launch on the NYSE's planned 24/7 digital trading platform. This is not a small matter.
What really made me restless is another layer of meaning— in the future, buying a share of Apple won't require waiting for a brokerage account to open or T+2 settlement; you can just tap directly on-chain. What Solana is doing is dismantling and rebuilding the most cumbersome processes of traditional finance.
The RWA track on $SOL is being pieced together block by block, from BlackRock to JPMorgan to Securitize. I'm not sure how the price will move this week, but after seeing this direction so much, I have a clear sense. Holding on. $SOL leveraged long positions have basically been cleared out; can the 100 whole number level hold to prevent a beta sell-off?
This round of adjustment shows a clear difference between SOL and other altcoins, with the funding rate annualized at -7%, making it one of the few mainstream coins with a negative funding rate, indicating that on-exchange leveraged long positions have basically been liquidated.
The current selling pressure mainly comes from spot selling and remaining long stop-losses, no longer from crowded long forced liquidations. The downward short momentum is weaker compared to other altcoins.
The 4-hour moving averages show a bearish alignment, with EMA50 resistance around 114. The gains accumulated since October have basically been fully given back.
The short-term core support is at 105, with the key whole number defense level at 100 below; the first resistance zone above is between 114-116.
The positive impact of the Alpenglow upgrade has long been priced in. At this stage, the market completely follows the overall market's beta trend, with no independent narrative support.
Holding 100 will maintain a wide range of oscillation; once 100 is effectively broken, a deeper correction space will open. If Bitcoin stabilizes and rebounds, $SOL will have a chance to challenge the 114 resistance zone.
Macro deep logic (determining the short-term market tone)
This round of the overall market is dominated by macro liquidity tightening, with risk assets collectively undergoing valuation cuts. Public chain altcoins have greater elasticity and generally larger declines than BTC. But SOL's negative funding rate indicates leveraged longs exited early, compressing the space for further cascading liquidations. Its movement is highly tied to Bitcoin, with no foundation for independent strength. If Bitcoin breaks below the 80,000 level, $SOL will quickly test the 100-102 support range.More people are shorting $ZEC now than going long,
and the short sellers have to pay interest to the long holders every day.
This is a good sign—once the price really breaks through the ceiling,
these short sellers will panic and quickly buy back to close their positions, which will act like rocket fuel pushing the price up.$ZRO short-term reversal, why hasn't the 4-hour given up yet?
$ZRO 24h -6.61%, current price 2.05. On the surface, it's just a rise and fall, but the real conflict lies in the timeframes: 1-hour is bullish, 4-hour is bearish. When two charts give opposite answers, the least useful approach is to pick the one you like and believe it completely.
Position is more honest than adjectives. The current price is about 6.34% away from the 1-hour support at 1.92, and about 5.37% away from the resistance at 2.16. Putting these two distances together reveals which side needs more evidence. Looking only at the price change easily mistakes the space already traveled as if it hasn't started yet.
The opposing side also has a clear invalidation line. Breaking below the 1-hour support at 1.92 means the short-term support has failed the test; if it continues to break the 4-hour support at 1.896, the previous bullish or recovery judgment must be rewritten. You can hold your view, but you can't pretend not to see when the evidence changes.
It's easier to understand this market move as equipment acceptance: running without load doesn't mean completion; stability under boundary conditions gives weight to the conclusion. Write your view as a condition, so if you're wrong, you know where the mistake is. Which signal would you rather wait for to judge: the short cycle has already led the reversal, or the larger cycle still has stronger constraints? The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bull.10.9 ETH
Following BTC's synchronized breakdown and sharp drop, it plunged directly from around 2580 to 2405 with higher volume, a larger decline than BTC. The momentum is very strong, confirming an overall weak pattern. The current rebound is just a technical correction after the drop, very weak and unable to hold its ground.
Enter short positions directly when the rebound reaches the 2520-2530 range. This area is a key level where previous support turned into resistance, with concentrated selling pressure, making it difficult to break through effectively. Place a stop loss above 2550. The first target is 2430-2410; if it breaks below the previous low, it will continue downward. #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 On the 1-hour timeframe, $DOT is moving into the red cloud, with the price approaching Senko Span B at 1.16 USD, making it suitable for a Short setup.
Short: 1.161
Stop loss: 1.198
TP1: 1.09
TP2: 0.961Many people are waiting to see if the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, but the market has already done it for them.
On 10/8, the U.S. Treasury auctioned $22 billion in 30-year bonds with a winning yield of 5.618%, the highest since August 2000. In September, the yield was only 5.308%, rising 30 basis points in just one month.
In the secondary market, the 10-year yield once touched 5.36%, also the highest in over twenty years.
With U.S. bonds earning 5.6% passively, why would capital return to the crypto space to ride the roller coaster with you?
No wonder $BTC and the Nasdaq have been falling hand in hand these past two days.The Hormuz squeeze is becoming a logistics problem before it is a pure demand story. Fewer crossings and lower crude transit volumes can tighten prompt supply even if diplomacy improves the headline tone.
Alternative routes and IEA stocks may soften the shock, but neither fully replaces a constrained chokepoint. The key signal is whether vessel traffic recovers.
#HormuzOilSupplySqueeze 10.9 ETH
📊 Today's Ethereum market analysis
Currently, Ethereum is expected to have a rebound, but it is just an hourly-level oversold correction. I think the upside is very limited, so don't have too high expectations.
After all, the two short-term moving averages on the 1-hour chart continue to form a bearish death cross and diverge downward. The current confluence resistance is in the 2490-2510 range, and the price is steadily running below the moving averages. The rebound is just a breathing move within the bearish trend, a quick correction after a sharp drop.
🎯 Key levels
Upper resistance: 2490-2510
Lower support: 2440-2450
🚨 Trading advice
The main strategy is still to short on the rebound after resistance in the 2490-2510 range.
The first target is 2440-2450; if broken, continue to watch the previous low around 2400.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 $BTC This wave is not the end of the bull market, it's leverage paying off debt
The big coin has made the brothers in my group collectively irritable these past two days. But if you ask me if I'm panicking, I'm not. What really keeps me awake at night isn't the price, but those brothers who are fully leveraged thinking they're doing low-risk arbitrage.
Eighty thousand is a psychological barrier, not a technical one. This round, the big coin touched just above eighty thousand at its lowest, once breaking through the buy wall at eighty thousand one during the day. It fell below 83,263, but the overall structure is intact. The key level to watch recently is 80,000.
Liquidations are the accelerator, not the cause. According to derivatives data, about $1.19 billion worth of liquidations occurred across the market in the past 24 hours, nearly 90% of which were longs, with 187,000 people forcibly liquidated; ETH alone accounted for over $300 million. This is not institutions running away, but crowded longs being cleared out by a single needle. Liquidations at this scale usually mean the chip turnover is nearing its end, not the starting gun for a trend reversal.
ETFs are bleeding. The US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $484.9 million in a single day, the largest since June 25. IBIT, FBTC, and ARKB contributed over $400 million of this, and the cumulative net flow in October has also turned negative. But IBIT plus Strategy still hold over 1.6 million BTC; this scale of redemption is portfolio adjustment, not retreat. My earliest exposure to virtual currency was purely because my friends chatted about it every day in the group.
At that time, I couldn't even tell the difference between a wallet and an exchange; I just thought the price swings were terrifying.
Later, I put in a little spare money myself and realized that mindset is much more important than technique.
The first thing I bought was $BTC, and after buying it, I stared at the candlestick charts so much that I couldn't even eat properly.
If it went up a bit, I wanted to add more; if it dropped a bit, I wanted to cut losses. I was completely driven by the market.
After messing around for a few months, I paid quite a bit in fees but didn't make much money.
Then I started looking at $ETH and slowly learned about what’s behind it.
I didn’t just look at the price but at the ecosystem, the applications, and what people were using it for.
Honestly, I couldn’t understand many project whitepapers and didn’t pretend to.
If I don’t understand, I don’t touch it. This sounds simple but is really hard to do.
I also tried chasing hot trends, but usually, the hype was almost gone by the time I got in.
The biggest takeaway during that time was admitting I’m just an ordinary person.
Ordinary people shouldn’t always think they can get rich overnight from a single piece of news.
Now I keep my position sizes very small, small enough that I can still sleep if the price drops.
I also keep some cash on hand so I’m not left helpless when opportunities come.
$SOL is something I started paying attention to later; it’s fast and has a lively ecosystem.
But I won’t rush in just because others shout buy signals; I watch first, wait, then decide.
Virtual currency is volatile, full of opportunities, but also full of traps.
Some people make money, others lose so much they don’t dare tell their families.
My own principle is simple: use spare money, don’t borrow, don’t get emotional.
Don’t get arrogant when you win, don’t blame when you lose; if you learn something, the tuition wasn’t wasted.
The market changes every day, but the greed and fear in human nature never change.
So now before I make a decision, I always ask myself if I can accept the worst outcome.
If I can, I try a little; if not, I just watch quietly.
After all, virtual currency isn’t everything in life; eating well and sleeping well are more important. #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#跟着OKX打卡2049
#三星Q3初步利润首破100万亿韩元 Is there still speculative space for $SATS sats inscriptions?
1. First clarify: What do you mean by "SATS coin"
- sat/sats: The smallest unit of Bitcoin, 1 BTC = 100 million sats, not a coin itself.
- SATS (BRC-20): A fungible token deployed on Bitcoin inscriptions in 2023, named to ride on "Satoshi"; total supply 21 quadrillion, fully circulating, no smart contracts, no revenue, no official team roadmap, essentially a community meme.
- Trading unit: Many exchanges quote at 1000 SATS; don't be fooled by prices like "0.0000000x", focus on market cap, depth, and which exchange.
2. Does the inscription/Ordinals ecosystem still have prospects?
There is a "small prospect," but not the 100x wealth explosion of 2023; rather, it becomes a niche permanent proof layer on Bitcoin:
- Total inscriptions continue to grow, exceeding 100 million to 117 million by 2026;
- Ordinals NFT secondary market still active: about $53 million in January 2026, $33.6 million in February, $46.8 million in March; average price around $785 in March, wash trading below 1%, leaning towards genuine collecting rather than pure volume manipulation;
- Technical directions are iterating: recursive inscriptions, Ordinals+Runes, BTC layer 2, UniSat single-step transfers/BRC-20 improvements, reducing costs and improving experience;
- But overall has cooled down: Magic Eden exited Bitcoin Ordinals/Runes in March 2026, traffic shifted to vertical platforms like UniSat, Horizon, Gamma, OKX NFT; BRC-20 market cap once only about $71.3 million, 24h volume about $23 million, incomparable to bull market peaks.
Conclusion: Inscriptions as "Bitcoin native proof + niche NFT + experimental token standard" will exist long-term; as a universal investment track, it has shifted from niche hype to stock competition.
3. The "prospects" and "speculative space" of SATS coin
Fundamentals (very weak):
- Advantages: Leverages Bitcoin culture and strong brand recognition; fully circulating with no unlocking dump; some platforms used it as fee/activity token; inscription sector follows BTC sentiment during big rallies.
- Disadvantages: No real utility; BRC-20 uses JSON inscriptions, bulky, occupies UTXO, transfer fees can exceed principal during network congestion; Runes are more resource-efficient, continuously diverting fungible token demand; huge total supply makes price pumping costly; multiple delistings/trading-only with no deposit/withdraw support, liquidity fragmented.
Historical performance reference (don’t just look at current price):
- ATH about $0.000000941 (December 2023), then multiple retracements of 95%–99%;
- Market cap figures in 2026 vary widely: some say tens of millions, others Gate.io about $89 million, Coinbase about $23 million, indicating inconsistent depth and pricing across exchanges; 24h volume sometimes only in millions, but can spike massively during pulses.
- Short-term often follows ORDI, BRC-20 sector, BTC sentiment, a "high beta meme": rises fast, falls fast.
Where is the speculative space?
- Triggers: BTC main uptrend → rotation among inscriptions/Runes/BRC-20; UniSat or leading exchanges re-promote BRC-20 features; narratives like "new mint/rare sat/old coin revival"; macro risk appetite returns.
- But sustainability usually poor: no cash flow, no burn mechanism, no lock-up, purely turnover and sentiment driven, prone to "one-day pump, one-week dump."
4. Risk checklist (honestly):
1. Zeroing/delisting risk: small exchanges delisting, trading-only mode, deposit/withdrawal closures common;
2. Liquidity risk: with daily volume in millions, large orders face high slippage, may not exit easily;
3. Technical substitution: Runes, Layer 2, other BTC asset standards may marginalize BRC-20 SATS;
4. Policy and block space controversy: Ordinals have long faced "Bitcoin block space occupation" controversy, core client policies and regulatory classification changes may affect expectations;
5. Name misleading: called SATS does not equal holding Bitcoin or rights to "Satoshi," just a same-name meme.
5. If you just want to participate, how to reduce risk:
- Treat it only as a satellite/emotion position, not a core asset; overall no more than 1%–5% of total crypto funds, less for beginners;
- Only look at 1000 SATS depth on mainstream exchanges, avoid unknown chains, private group "inscription proxy minting," or guaranteed principal new projects;
- Don’t FOMO after sharp rises; BRC-20 pulses usually pump ORDI first then spread to SATS, waiting for diffusion often means catching the last leg;
- Set absolute stop loss (e.g., unconditional exit if price drops 20%–30% from purchase), avoid high leverage;
- Distinguish "inscription collecting" (NodeMonkes, low-number sats as blue chips, but rarity understanding needed) from "buying SATS tokens," the former leans NFT collecting, the latter pure speculation.BTC 30-minute short-term analysis:
At the 30-minute level, BTC completed a V-shaped recovery after bottoming at 80344. The price has effectively reclaimed the Bollinger middle band at 81680 and is approaching the upper band at 82369. The Bollinger Bands have shifted from a downward-opening to a narrowing upward trend, indicating bearish momentum is weakening. The middle band has turned from resistance into dynamic support. The current key is the breakout confirmation of the 82369-82500 resistance zone; a volume-supported close above this level would signal an upgraded rebound, targeting the previous highs at 83170-83283.
Strategy-wise, consider buying on dips within the 81680-82000 range, with a stop loss below 81200. If the price falls back below the middle band and fails to recover, the rebound structure is broken, and the bias shifts to short positions targeting 80991-80393. Follow the trend and avoid fighting it. A close above 82500 confirms the continuation of the bullish trend. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 10.9 Big BTC
After breaking down from around 83000, it dropped to a low of 80344, a decline of over two thousand points without any decent rebound. The Bollinger Bands are fully opening downward, with the bears firmly controlling the market. The current slight rebound is just a downward consolidation, lacking any strength for a reversal.
Enter short positions directly when the rebound reaches the 82800-83000 range. This level is the lower edge of the recently broken consolidation platform, which has now completely turned into a strong resistance zone. The trapped positions and selling pressure from the bears will concentrate here, making it impossible to break through. Place stop-loss above 83300 to defend the position. First target is 81000-80800; if the previous low is effectively broken, expect further downward exploration to deeper levels. #跟着OKX打卡2049 $BTC high-level support lost, can the 80,000 mark hold against this round of macro liquidity drain?
The 83,000 lifeline emphasized yesterday was breached as expected. Last night, $BTC consecutively broke through the 82,000 and 81,000 levels, dipping as low as around 80,393.
This decline is essentially a systemic deleveraging driven by macro liquidity withdrawal.
The previously important oscillation support at 82,500 was confirmed lost, turning that level from support into strong resistance. The 80,000 round number is the last short-term lifeline on the current chart. After testing 80,393 last night, it quickly rebounded, proving there is real buying support at this level.
If the 80,000 mark is broken, the first downside target is 78,000. In extreme scenarios, it could reach 75,000/76,000, which is the next dense liquidation zone for long leverages marked by Glassnode.
This Sunday’s weekly close is very critical. If the weekly closes below 82,500, this resistance level will suppress the market for a long time.
The macro environment is poor: Federal Reserve officials continue to release hawkish statements. After the October 7 meeting minutes, Waller and Mouselam consecutively supported further rate hikes. The interest rate swap market prices the probability of a December hike at 67.6%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield has stabilized near 5.3%. #全球长期国债收益率升至多年高位
Coupled with escalating Middle East geopolitical conflicts, the Houthi militia continues to attack Saudi airports. #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 Spot $BTC ETF saw a single-day net outflow of $487 million.$BTC is the toughest teacher in the crypto world; it never lectures, it just traps you until you question your life! 😂
Where do kids cry every day? Where does the crypto world keep losing?
$PUMP keeps surging, and I keep averaging down, until I just couldn’t anymore and had to give up. The peak was almost 0.007. I finally understood: sometimes it’s not that you don’t want to win, but that you’ve run out of bullets!
Looking again at $BTC and $ZEC, I held on hard in the early stages. I originally planned to exit once breaking even, but I was unwilling to give up and held until now. I’m still optimistic about the big coin, but not so much about the smaller ones.
Yesterday I said I’d close my $ZEC position at 1100, but the lowest was 1111—11 dollars short of exiting, and then it bounced back up! This market messes with all plans; you’re almost free, but then it gives you hope again. I’m still wary of a drop around 950.
But now we need to be more cautious: the September FOMC minutes released a hawkish signal, with most officials leaning toward further rate hikes if necessary. Even if ETF funds are still flowing in, it doesn’t mean crypto prices won’t keep falling.
What the crypto world fears most isn’t losing money, but refusing to accept losses and turning small losses into big ones.
Getting through it is luck; surviving is skill! Next time, I won’t let unwillingness make my trading decisions. 🔥 1200 broken, script rewritten 😿
$ZEC first puts away the "a drop is an opportunity" idea. The price has reached around 1200, down about 8.7% in 24 hours, about 13.5% in a week, and the previously watched 1200 level did not hold. The round number level is not obligated to support the price. Buying at that level means pre-arranging buy orders for the market. This time I lower my judgment: treat the short term as weak, first look for a rebound to repair. Only after reclaiming and stabilizing above 1200 can we discuss improvement. Don't use the old high as a target for now. The priority is to solve the downtrend; how far from the high comes later.
$WLD's quiet today does not mean this week is easy. The 24-hour drop is less than 1%, but the weekly drop is close to 11%. Looking only at today, it's easy to think the pressure is over; extending the timeframe, the price is still at a lower position. My assessment: the decline is temporarily paused, the rise is not confirmed. Moving sideways can catch a breath but cannot replace repair, nor justify adding back positions all at once.
$BICO is still tugging around 0.02. Flat intraday, but down about 8.7% in a week, now just with less volatility, no real upward gains yet. The most common thought is "it's about time." The market has no such schedule. For now, watch if buy orders can push the price away from the current level. Stopping the fall is worth noting; strengthening needs separate confirmation, don't combine these two stages into one judgment.All three points mentioned yesterday hit the mark, $PONS was basically sold at a high point. Setting aside BTC pressure and the cooling RH hype, let's just talk about the fundamentals of $PONS:
1. Fees: Yesterday, the PONS protocol's fees were only 510,000; note that a month ago at its peak on September 5th, it was 11M. This means PONS fees have dropped 95% from the peak.
2. Revenue: Yesterday, PONS protocol revenue was only 70,000, while on September 5th it was 2M. Revenue has dropped 97% from the peak.
3. Trading volume: Yesterday, PONS trading volume was 7.5M, compared to 143M on September 5th. Trading volume has dropped 95% from the peak.
My conclusion: comparing market cap and fundamentals, the market cap has not fallen enough. $PONS's FDV market cap has dropped from 650 million to 240 million, a 65% drop. Currently, this market cap is still overvalued.
All data comes from defillamaBTC was directly liquidated, Big Brother Maji really pulled out this time. The total position was cut from 111 million to only 14.75 million, leaving only an ETH position holding on.
ETH: Holding 6,100 coins, entry price 2624.77, unrealized loss of 1.2619 million, liquidation price dropped to 2380.41, funding fee -1.3434 million. The quantity was cut by more than half, the absolute loss value has decreased, but the margin is only 590,000, so a slight drop could easily trigger liquidation.
HYPE and PUMP were already liquidated before, now BTC has also withdrawn, so it can be said to be a full defensive move.
Big Brother’s position cut this time was decisive. With the market so bad now, survival is the priority. But the remaining ETH position’s funding fee is too high; 590,000 margin is holding a value of 14.75 million, one more sharp drop and it’s dangerous. I think the short term will still be a volatile bottom search, don’t rush to bottom fish, and treat any rebound as a chance to reduce positions first.
$BTC $HYPE $ETH To be honest, I have no clue about technology—EVM, zkVM, whatever, it’s all Greek to me. But when Timothy Stebbing from the Dogecoin Foundation tweeted that after the DogeOS testnet went live, so many new projects flooded in "like an avalanche," that I understood.
To translate: Dogecoin used to be just for transfers, now people are building on it.
What is DogeOS? It’s something created by the MyDoge wallet team that lets developers build Ethereum-style apps on Dogecoin, with all fees paid in DOGE. Since the testnet launched, five serious projects are already running on it—lending protocol Superposition Finance, perpetual contract exchange Derps, stablecoin USDoge, prediction market Snag, and a mini-game publisher PlaysOut.
I haven’t dug into what these projects specifically do. As a retail investor, I wouldn’t understand anyway. But I got one thing—$DOGE has evolved from something "just for transfers" into a "foundation for building." And it’s not just one or two people building, it’s a whole group.
The price is hovering around 0.085, no one’s talking about it. But the foundation is already being laid. Jordan Jefferson, founder of DogeOS, said something I noted: "This marks Dogecoin’s first step from a simple asset to an ecosystem." Bitcoin: The Battle Around $86,000
Bitcoin is stuck in a tug-of-war near $86,000. September's nonfarm payrolls added only 29,000 jobs, far below expectations, causing the probability of a rate hike in October to plummet below 20%, briefly pushing BTC close to $87,000.
But concerns are equally glaring. Long-term holders' cost basis is concentrated between $88,000 and $89,000, with selling pressure to break even looming nearby. Bitwise data also shows that trading days above $95,000 account for only 1.7% of the historical sample, indicating thin liquidity above.
There is a huge divergence between bulls and bears. Citi raised its 12-month target price to $113,000, citing clearer regulations and ETF capital inflows. However, the Fed minutes were hawkish, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and macro headwinds persist.
The key levels are clear: holding above $87,000 puts $100,000 in range; if it falls below $82,000, the $80,000 level will be tested. The next catalyst is the October 28 FOMC meeting.
In the short term, watch the funds; in the medium term, watch the Fed. Maji lost 8.44 million in a week, and the account fell below 1 million again
First, look at these numbers:
1. In August, $ETH went from $1,900 up to $2,500, he rolled his position long, turning 150,000 into 12 million
2. Then ETH oscillated narrowly between $2,400-$2,500 for 20 days, he frequently stopped losses, and 12 million shrank to only 800,000
3. Around September 20, ETH rose from $2,400 to over $2,700, his assets bounced from 800,000 back to 10 million
4. Now on October 9, ETH fell below $2,500, and his assets dropped below 1 million again
In one and a half months, five rollercoaster rides: 150,000 → 12 million → 800,000 → 10 million → 1 million.
This is rolling positions
When it rises, compound rolling snowball, 150,000 becomes 12 million.
During oscillations, frequent stop losses, 12 million becomes 800,000.
When the market comes back, 800,000 rolls back to 10 million.
When it pulls back, it returns to 1 million. In the past 24 hours, over 50,000 BTC flowed into exchanges, of which 29,500 were sold at a loss, accounting for 59%. This is the most intense single-day cut-loss by short-term holders in nearly four months. On-chain analyst Darkfost said that panic is already very evident.
But the price hasn't dropped much; BTC is still around $82,000, retesting the previous high from May this year. Despite such aggressive selling, the price holds, indicating there are still many buyers stepping in. $82,000 is a key daily level; it hasn't truly broken through in the previous three attempts, and now that it’s back to confirm, the short-term direction will likely depend on this level.
When short-term holders panic, sentiment definitely worsens, and leveraged longs take hits first. But after clearing out some losing positions, the chips transfer from those who can't hold to those who can, which is often the process of forming a phase bottom. Next, it depends on whether $82,000 can hold.
$ETH $ZEC $BTC Last night, long positions across the entire network were liquidated for $692 million, with ETH spot on OKX turning over at $2476.05 and the funding rate stuck at 0.0005%.
Long positions worth $692 million were liquidated network-wide last night. ETH spot on OKX traded at $2476.05 with a funding rate of only 0.0005%. If you have positions, take another look at the spot market today for support. A total of 759 million dollars were liquidated among 130,000 people in this wave. When Ethereum dropped below $2500 overnight, a large whale on-chain liquidated 28,716 ETH, losing $69.69 million. Then he immediately added to his long position, increasing it to 78,955 ETH, with new liquidation prices moved to $2299.09 and $2286.28.
I just checked the OKX contracts page. ETH spot fell 4.16% in 24 hours, hovering around $2476.05. The total perpetual contract open interest on the platform dropped to $7.727 billion, down significantly from yesterday's $8.2 billion, with ETH contracts accounting for $1.806 billion. ETH funding rate is held at 0.0005%, annualized at only 0.55%, with long position bubbles wiped out by last night's sharp drop. The altcoin-to-BTC open interest ratio is at 0.961, the fear and greed index dropped to 59, and neither side in the market is rushing to open new positions.
ETH spot turnover in 24 hours reached $1.03 billion, with buy orders gradually replenishing after the sharp drop.同时，Glassnode报告指出，过去30天流入BTC的“新资金”只有约49亿美元，而同期已实现市值增长高达128亿美元。 翻译一下：新钱只有49亿，但市值涨了128亿，多出来的79亿是市场内部资金在更高价格换手——存量博弈的行情，需要新增买盘才能真正突破。 巨鲸jasonleo在最新发帖中提出了一个反常识视角：“本轮BTC回调最值得关注的并非跌幅，而是为什么只跌了这么多。” 背景是：30年期美债收益率接近5.7%、10年期约5.3%、油价站上100美元、美联储年内加息预期升温，多重宏观利空叠加，但BTC目前仅回调约5%。 换作过去，单一利空就能砸出10%以上的跌幅。这次多重利空轰炸，BTC纹丝不动。价格对消息的反应本身，就是重要信息。 jasonleo将当前走势与BTC此前5.8万美元附近的底部行情进行了对比。核心共同点不是价格位置，而是“利空充分释放后卖压减弱” 。 杠杆被清洗、浮筹被消化之后，价格对利空的敏感度自然下降。目前BTC仍处于强趋势中，7.9万美元是关键的减仓观察位——跌破开始减仓，日线收线跌破7.8万美元则清仓等待下一轮。 短期持有者平均成本约7.41万美元，整体浮盈The battle between bulls and bears at the 82000 level, a wick spike at 82200 to clear leverage ⚖️
From the current 15-minute chart, Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase after a rebound following a dip to 80400. It is currently trading around 82104.9, with a slight 24-hour increase of 1.31%.
Technical analysis:
Previously, there was a typical "wick spike" near 82200, triggering some short positions to close, which objectively pushed the price briefly up to 82300. Currently, the price is running below the MA5 and MA10 (around 82300), with short-term moving averages entangled, indicating strong resistance at the second pressure level of 82781 above. The KDJ indicator (K:53.0, D:68.4) shows signs of turning down near the midline, suggesting a short-term need to pull back and digest profit-taking. The support level at 80400 has been tested recently and remains strong.
News and sentiment:
Although there have been recent negative news related to Tornado Cash and Bitcoin Fog, the market has not experienced panic selling, showing some resilience. The market is currently in a washout phase with both bulls and bears overleveraged, and any direction with excessive leverage could become the target for major players to harvest. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 BTC breaking below 80000 is a high-probability event, position for a rebound short! Public trade
Technical aspect: Resistance zone pressing down, the rebound is an opportunity to short
Since September 21, BTC has repeatedly attempted to break through 87000 USD without success, then fell below the key level of 83000. Currently, the price is fluctuating around 82000. The area from 83600 to 84500 is a convergence zone of the 1-hour and 4-hour EMAs and previous breakdown points, forming a strong resistance band. 83188 is right at the lower edge of this resistance band, so a price rebound to this level is a natural short entry point.
Capital flow: Large ETF outflows, institutional buying is retreating
On October 7, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of 484.9 million USD, the largest single-day outflow since June 25.
Market sentiment and leverage structure: Shorts are crowded, but rebound space is limited
BTC funding rates have collectively turned negative, dropping on OKX to about -0.00215%, a nine-month low. Negative funding rates mean shorts pay longs, signaling crowded shorts.
Trading strategy
Place short orders near 83188, stop loss above 84500. If volume pushes and holds above 84500, it indicates the short thesis has failed; exit unconditionally. The first target is 81500 to 82000; if broken, look for 80000 to 79500. Position size controlled at 10% to 15%, leverage no more than 3x. Keep light positions before CPI data; increase positions if data is hot, stop loss and exit if data is dovish. $BTC pons
Still confirmed my thoughts
Up 5 points down 10 points
Currently has already been digested by major mainstream exchanges
This positive news
Plus the continuous sluggish income from the pons protocol
And the community's concerns about the buyback mechanism (currently manual)
As well as on-chain liquidity tightening
I still don't look favorably on the follow-up
One of my floating profits has also reached a position of 30,000u
Continue to be bearish
$ETH $ZEC $PONS
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
#跟着OKX打卡2049 $BTC BTC Market Analysis:
The recent pullback of Bitcoin came later than expected, but the overall trend has not deviated from the forecast. As repeatedly mentioned before, after a weak rally on a smaller scale, a deep correction is highly likely, with the key observation level at 82280.
After the support level was broken, the market accelerated downward, hitting a low near 80300. During this decline, there was almost no significant rebound. Next, the focus will be on the strength of any rebound and the market structure, with short-term resistance around 82550.It also follows the current trading discipline,
starting with a 1% position and then gradually adding more depending on the situation.
This can achieve 144% in just one month from August to September.
Earn more when the market is good, lose less or earn less when the market is bad.
In the end, it was still because of holding losing positions that led to liquidation,
so you can't hold losing positions, you can't hold losing positions!Last night during the first round of bottom probing, I opened a position at 2521, thinking it was a temporary bottom, but unexpectedly the stop loss was hit at 2468.
I opened another position at 2426, just to see how many days it would take to return to 2700 points.
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $TIA rose 12.41% in 24H, currently quoted at $0.5042, ranging between 0.4446 and 0.5298, with a trading volume of approximately 9.687 million USDT. It first dropped to 0.4446 in the early morning before quickly rallying, indicating this move involves both an oversold rebound and a clear short squeeze.
The catalyst remains Celestia Fibre. The latest end-to-end test covers 120 validators, sustaining throughput of 3.07 Tb/s. Celestia is advancing from the "modular DA concept" toward high-performance data infrastructure.
However, benchmark scores do not equal revenue. TIA previously mainly traded on modular narratives and ecosystem imagination; going forward, real adoption, Blob demand, and network fees should be the focus. No matter how fast the technology develops, if usage and value capture do not keep pace, the valuation will still lack support.
After the short-term surge, cooling has set in: MACD momentum has declined, price is near the lower Bollinger Band, and RSI6 has dropped to 34. 0.50 is the first support; breaking below that points to 0.48, with strong support between 0.444 and 0.46. On the upside, watch 0.515–0.52 first, with strong resistance at 0.529–0.55.
Only by firmly reclaiming 0.52 can it qualify to challenge 0.53–0.55; if it fails to hold 0.50, beware this might just be a quick short squeeze.
The technical story is set; next, it depends on whether demand can take over. Holding ground is more important than just touching the key levels. To start with the conclusion: the most painful thing today is not that BTC dropped 1.2%, but that it barely moved, while $SOL directly plunged -5.3%.
Looking at the data: out of the entire market, 231 USDT perpetual contracts are down, only 51 are up, with a median of -3.4%. But BTC is holding fairly steady above 82000. This is a typical "capital flowing back to BTC, altcoins getting drained first" kind of day.
My previous lesson: being fully invested in altcoins under this structure means you're just waiting for others to take your money to buy BTC. At the 110 level for SOL, there's no clear volume support on the 4H chart, indicating selling pressure hasn't been fully released yet.
It's not that you shouldn't hold, but your position size must match. When BTC is stable and altcoins are volatile, your altcoin position should be an amount you won't mind losing.
How's your altcoin bag today? Do you think SOL 110 is just a shakeout or is it really going to break?$APR is bearish; there are 14 days left until the cliff unlock on October 23, with the volume close to half of the current circulating supply. It's not yet the most critical time to watch. We backtested large unlocks from 2024 to 2026 and found that underperformance against the market mainly occurs in the last 7 days before the unlock; about three-quarters of these events see negative performance during that week. There is no stable direction after the unlock day; this judgment only applies up to the unlock. The market is already weak. Within one day, it swung between 0.1186 and 0.0974, currently priced at 0.1106. Almost all liquidations were long positions, totaling 105 trades worth $100,000; short positions only had 13 trades. Those chasing the rebound have been continuously shaken out. Combined with the bearish moving average alignment and low volume on the rebound, I consider this pullback a weak rebound. Before entering the last 7 days, it oscillated weakly between 0.0974 and 0.1186; once in the window, it is more likely to break below 0.0974. The condition to turn bullish: daily volume expands and closes above 0.1186 within the window, indicating supply has been digested in advance and invalidating the bearish view. 🚨 24-Hour Liquidation Map: $BTC is only 0.83% away above! Bears are in danger, but bulls shouldn't celebrate too early!
Here's the key info for the bros:
₿ $BTC ｜82057
Above 82739, just 0.83% away, bear liquidations around 47.72 million; below 80291, bull liquidations around 83.46 million. The upper level is close, but the liquidation amount below is larger, so there's room for liquidation on both sides.
Ξ $ETH ｜2487
Above 2587, bear liquidations about 69.66 million; below 2385, bull liquidations about 38.99 million. Potentially more liquidation above, but price action is needed.
◎ $SOL｜110.04
Above 112.94, below 105.46. Bull liquidations below are about 8.11 million, higher than bear liquidations above at 6.14 million. Beware of a spike followed by a pullback.
🔥 $ZEC｜1210.6
Above 1262, below 1112. Bear and bull liquidation amounts are close, with the lower level about 8.11% from current price. Key to watch if support holds.
My view: BTC first eyes 82739, ETH watches 2587, SOL guards against pullback, ZEC watches 1112 support.
Note, liquidation pain points are not guaranteed targets, don’t treat them as directional guarantees.
Finally, a question: Will this wave break bears first or bulls first? Share your judgment in the comments!$ETH This is the last round of pullback before the midterm elections. Looking back at the previous three market cycles, after Ethereum reached 2600 and 2800, the pullback lows were in the 2100 to 2200 range. But note, the starting point of the previous cycle was lower itself, and this time both Bitcoin and Ethereum's overall price levels have risen, so the past three historical patterns cannot be directly applied.
This consolidation period will be longer, and the bottom support level will also rise. The extreme downside range for Ethereum is seen at 2250-2450, which is already the worst-case expectation, and it may not even fall to this level.
The main force's current shakeout logic is simple: to wear down those already holding positions, while not giving those who missed out a chance to buy in at low prices. Therefore, the price will not crash deeply, but will oscillate repeatedly at low levels, continuously testing patience.
As for altcoins, the downside risk has already been released in advance earlier, so the room for a large drop afterward is limited. Friends holding altcoins need not panic excessively.
For those holding long positions in Ethereum, if the liquidation price is very close to the current price, you can appropriately reduce your position. Later, try to capture a wave of about 5% swing; the market has a chance to recover. Contract positions should be dynamically adjusted; avoid heavy positions or extreme trading in one go.
$BTC