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NEAR dropped nearly 12%, but has already rebounded nearly 12% from the intraday low, with the funding rate still at -0.0133%.
As of 13:22 Beijing time, OKEx spot price is about $4.815, with a 24-hour high of 5.598 and a low of 4.301, a volatility of about 30.2%; trading volume is about $64.76 million.
OKEx hourly statistics show an open interest nominal value of about $58.19 million, an increase of about 12.9% compared to about 12 hours ago, but a decrease of about 2.2% in the last hour. My judgment is that there is support at the low level, but short sellers are paying fees and short-term deleveraging coexist, so the rebound cannot yet be considered as pressure being relieved.
The easiest misjudgment is to directly take the negative funding rate as a guarantee of continued short squeeze; it only indicates that shorts are paying longs. If the position does not surge sharply and the rate gradually returns to neutral when it retakes about $4.95, the rebound structure may be healthier; if it falls back below 4.60 while positions increase again and the rate continues to decline, the remaining leverage may amplify the decline again.
$NEAR The bulls really got crushed this round
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $1.16 billion, with bulls accounting for $1 billion and bears only $108 million. 190,000 people were liquidated, over 90% of whom were long positions
This is the largest scale long liquidation in nearly 90 days, with $600 million liquidated in just one hour‼️‼️
But $BTC did not break 80,000⭕️⭕️⭕️
A spike reached 80,400, and since October 3rd, a large number of buy orders have accumulated, forming the largest buy cluster below currently
The Fed minutes show most officials believe another rate hike is needed this year
US Treasury yields remain around 5.3%, Brent crude oil is at $105
ETF funds saw a single-day outflow of $487 million, the largest since the end of June. The triple pressure combined has made leveraged longs the sacrificial lambs
The 80,000 level has held in the short term. Below that, there is a thicker support zone at 77,000–77,664, which coincides with the 50-week moving average and the long liquidation trigger zone. Above, 85,812 is the densest area of short liquidations, with a cumulative short position strength of $2.449 billion. This will become the fuel for a new round of upward movement
Next, all eyes are on the October 14 CPI. If the data cools down, 80,000 will be the bottom; if the data remains sticky, 80,000 will have to be defended again
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 $DOGE BOUNCES AFTER TWO HEAVY RED DAILY CANDLES. Price sits at 0.08544, up 1.65% today, yet 7D still reads -8.06%. I'm treating this as a pause, not a reversal. One green candle proves little. Would a push through the 24h high of 0.08843 change your read?Bitcoin falls below $81,000, 6.4 million BTC in unrealized losses
$BTC accelerated its decline on Thursday, once touching the $80,000 mark, hitting a one-month low. It has dropped over 8% from the $87,000 high four days ago. $ETH and XRP fell about 6% in the past 24 hours, while SOL dropped 9%.
After falling below $81,000, approximately 6.4 million bitcoins are in unrealized losses. About $1.02 billion worth of liquidations occurred across the network in the past 24 hours, with 165,000 people liquidated; shorts were almost unharmed.
Coincidentally, tomorrow marks the one-year anniversary of the flash crash on October 10 last year—when Bitcoin fell from $122,000 to $105,000 in just a few minutes.
On the institutional side, the story is different: State Street surveyed 300 asset management institutions, with 51% expecting digital assets to become mainstream within five years, compared to 11% in 2024. Institutions have on average allocated 11% already. Price is the wrong place to start a $BTC vs $SOL comparison, because flows say more. Bitcoin's cumulative ETF inflows are above $120B, while Solana's are smaller, which makes it a second-tier allocation. That makes Bitcoin the default holding, while Solana's case rests on its roadmap, since the Alpenglow consensus overhaul reached a test cluster on May 11, 2026. $ETH sits between the two, so the real question is simple: in a slow market.
Would you rather hold certainty or a roadmap? The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $140.6 million yesterday, with Franklin and ARK suffering the heaviest losses. Demand for regulated crypto assets is clearly waning. On the other hand, Russia's digital ruble opened 220,000 accounts in its first month, far exceeding the expected 60,000. The expansion speed of central bank digital currencies is indeed fast, and it will likely compete directly with stablecoins and decentralized payments going forward. I sat in the security booth, unscrewed my thermos, took a sip of hot water, and then continued watching ETH.
ETH current price is 2495.38, MACD shows a death cross below the zero line, RSI is weak, and short-term momentum is declining. The CoinGlass liquidation chart shows a cluster of long liquidations around 2473, with heavier short liquidations near 2527. The price is stuck oscillating between 2490 and 2520. In this structure, chasing longs is likely to backfire, while chasing shorts risks a rebound.
Operationally, I lean bearish. Enter short positions in batches between 2510 and 2520, with a stop loss above 2535. The first take profit target is 2475, the second near the support at 2440. If the price breaks below 2440 with volume, then follow the trend and look lower. The defense point is 2535; if broken, admit the mistake and exit without holding the position.
Right now, the market is a tug of war between bulls and bears. Wait for the chips in the liquidation chart to be cleared before deciding the direction. I keep watching the entrance; everyone who comes in must register first.
$ETH
#跟着OKX打卡2049
@OKX星球 $ZEC actually didn't drop much today, hovering around 1220 all day, but if you look at its recent long lower shadow, you know it didn't just not drop—it dug a pit and then filled it back up.
What's interesting is who caused this lower shadow. Yesterday's sharp drop was on high volume, crashing from 1297 down to 1112, dropping fiercely and quickly. But at the bottom of that pit, the trading volume actually surged to 76M, the highest in the entire wave—where it dropped the hardest, buyers were the most aggressive. This kind of "buying on the day of the crash" scene is completely different from a slow, knife-like downtrend.
There are usually only two possibilities: either the bottom-fishing funds are really strong, or the main force is washing out floating chips and then using a lower shadow to recover the cost basis. I can't distinguish which on the spot, but they share one thing in common—someone near 1112 clearly showed up, and it wasn't the intuition of retail spot traders, but organized volume.
So my view is reversed: for other coins, I watch resistance; for ZEC, I watch whether the pit at 1112 holds. As long as the volume doesn't pick up near this level and the pit remains, this pit digging is more of a "washout" than a "crash"; if one day the volume surges and breaks through it, then it's really bad. If it can hold above 1255 on volume, then it's not a rebound but a recovery.
$BTC $ETH Showing off $TIA holdings, 50x long position with a floating profit of 355%!
Clear logic: After the early shakeout released emotions, TIA formed a bottom around 0.48, and capital preference shifted towards a rebound. I entered at 0.484, followed the uptrend, and the current price of 0.5184 has already yielded substantial profits.
The power of 50x leverage is great, but the core is timing the bottom rebound rhythm correctly and going long with the trend effortlessly.
Currently approaching the previous high, I recommend taking profits in batches. For friends who haven't entered yet, don't rush; the market has plenty of opportunities, and avoid chasing orders impulsively. $ZEC $BTC Just now: The Aptos Foundation has committed to permanently lock and stake 210M $APT, accounting for about 37% of its holdings. Ajian reminds everyone that this is not a burn, it is just locked and staked, as the foundation still needs to support operations through the income from this portion. This kind of supply management operation can reduce short-term circulation pressure but cannot automatically create demand. Remember to distinguish clearly among locking, staking, and burning, which are three different things Completely out of positions, just watching! Empty empty empty positions, just watch the show
Morning market overview on 10.9: $BTC long positions were shaken out, daily candle not closed yet, no announcement on who takes over for now
BTC probed near 80400 last night, bounced back to 81500–82300 this morning. For now, treat it as a long lower shadow weak bearish candle, no victory declared on half a candle.
I'm out of positions today. No entries, no T1/T2, no stop loss. Being out is to review win rate first, not a lack of opinion.
In the past 12 hours on the 8th, about 684 million liquidated across the network, longs 639 million, shorts 45 million, mainly long liquidations. Another data point in 24 hours is about 769 million, 140,043 people, different time windows, not mixed.
From 85500 down to 83800, about 400 million long positions liquidated in a single hour, that was on the 6th, not last night.
Positions haven't dropped much, funding rate still slightly positive, leverage not fully cleared, not surrendering.
About 12,267 BTC transferred out from US government-related addresses, causing panic, whether they sell remains to be seen.
Back to the chart: first watch 80400–84000. 80400 is last night's low, 82000 is previous support, 84000 is first resistance, watch for a break above to consider 85000.
No confirmation, so out of positions, no chasing in the middle of the range. Will write breakeven stop loss after entry.
Longs have been taught a lesson, whether shorts take over, wait for daily candle close.
Friends passing by, please follow and like. Analysis only, not trading advice.AI companies are still competing to raise funds, but the capital market has started to settle accounts. The most cash-burning sector has finally faced the most realistic problems. On October 9, Reuters revealed that the demand for AI infrastructure financing is still expanding, with companies like SpaceX, Broadcom, and Oracle planning large-scale financing. Meanwhile, Australian AI data center company Firmus canceled its planned IPO. Last night, the US stock chip sector came under pressure, and funds began to reassess the cost and return of AI investments. What does this have to do with Web3? Traditional AI requires chips, electricity, data centers, and continuous financing. Decentralized computing power networks attempt to provide an alternative way to organize resources, but whether they are cheaper, more stable, and can truly gain paying customers depends on project operational data. 🔮 Three tokens worth tracking RENDER | GPU rendering and computing power network Direction: Waiting for bull confirmation. Observe network demand, actual usage, and whether the token price can break through the 4-hour resistance level. Only a volume breakout with simultaneous increase in open interest raises the weight of trend continuation judgment. AKT | Decentralized cloud computing Direction: Neutral observation. Focus on computing power rental demand, network revenue, and transaction volume changes. Without real business growth, relying solely on the AI concept to rise is difficult to form a long-term basis. TAO | Decentralized AI network Direction: Observe relative strength. Compare TAO and BTC 4-hour trends, contract open interest, and funding rates. Only when TAO strengthens relative to BTC and increases positions should one consider whether funds are shifting back to AI.$SOL SOL's short-term trend has clearly weakened, having fallen from around $120 in early October. On October 9, the intraday low reached $105.71, then rebounded to about $110.43, with a daily decline of approximately 5%. The $116–$117 range is a recent key support zone; if broken, downward pressure may extend to $112.50 or even $105–$110. For a rebound, it must first recover the $117–$120 range and then retake the $122–$126 resistance zone to have a chance to repair the structure. Slowing inflows into spot ETFs and the uncertain date for the Alpenglow upgrade make the short term more influenced by BTC and macro risk appetite, with volatility remaining relatively high. It is more suitable to assess support and rebound quality based on key levels.$DOGE DOGE short-term trend is weak, having fallen back from around $0.097 in early October to about $0.082–0.085 on October 9, with a decline of approximately 7%–10% over the past 7 days. The $0.081–0.082 range is a recent low zone; if broken, downward pressure may extend toward around $0.078. A rebound requires first reclaiming $0.087–0.089 and then regaining $0.090–0.093 to have a chance to repair the structure. After a short squeeze near $0.10, volume declined, and the short-term trend is more influenced by BTC and macro risk appetite, showing high volatility but sustainability still needs to be observed.The $ETH position is ready to be closed, the rebound is still ongoing, but the position is shifted to $ZEC. The pullback in the uptrend is significant, and there isn't much trapped volume ahead. Since we want to attack, let's go with the leader.
Then opened a position in $ZHONGJI. Recently, there have been too many short derivatives in A-shares, the drop is chaotic, today there was a big lower shadow, probably some news will come out over the weekend. Planning a rebound trade, not a reversal, take profits after being trapped and then exit. Can't hold for long. #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 After a big drop, everyone is guessing how much further it will fall, but there is one number in the account that matters more than that—the liquidation price. It doesn’t move with the market; when the price drops one step, the gap between it and the current price narrows by one step.
This figure is usually overlooked. With 10x leverage, a 10% price drop wipes out the principal, while with 5x leverage, the liquidation price is more than 20% away. $SOL was still above 120 just a moment ago, but in two days it dropped to 105.7, a 12-point drop in one go. With 10x leverage, there’s no time to discuss market direction; even the 5x liquidation gap has been mostly eaten up.
At this point, the unrealized loss on the account is visible, but the bigger loss is that the position got liquidated directly at the liquidation price. After the drop, when the market recovers and the price returns to 110, the liquidated position cannot be recovered at that price.
Most who don’t dare to open their accounts are probably afraid to see the liquidation price column. Unrealized losses are just numbers on paper; you can hold on and wait, but once the liquidation price is touched, everything is cleared out, and there’s no chance to wait anymore.
After this drop, the first thing to do is to bring up the liquidation price and see how many points it is from the current price. Compare it with the drop over the past two days: if the liquidation price is further than the drop, the position can still hold; if it’s closer, reduce the leverage first before considering the market trend. Guessing the bottom comes later.
This number is more reliable than support levels, which everyone draws differently. The liquidation price is calculated by the exchange for you. Open your account and check it; that little uncertainty in your mind will be resolved.🔥 $ETH plummeted 2.99%, breaking below the $2,500 mark ⚡ $311 million liquidated in 24h, leading the pack with clear capital outflow ⏰ ETH/BTC exchange rate hits a new low, is Ethereum's narrative failing?
📌 Core Market · ETH 2,497.90 (-2.99%) fell below the $2,500 psychological level · Contract liquidations $311 million, accounting for 26% of total network liquidations · Trading volume shrinks 12%, bulls trapped between 2,450-2,550
📊 Geek Logic 1️⃣ Relative weakness: BTC only down 0.54%, ETH's drop is 5.5 times that of BTC 2️⃣ Ecosystem anomaly: DeFi TVL continues outflow, Layer 2 capital inflow slows
🎯 Key Support and Resistance · Support: 2,420 - 2,450 (breakdown target 2,300) · Resistance: 2,550 - 2,620 (must hold to consider rebound)
🎤 Risk Control Mindset ETH weaker than BTC, don’t catch a falling knife
👇 What will ETH do today? A. Continue to test below 2,400 B. Consolidate and recover between 2,450-2,550 C. Rebound and reclaim 2,600
$BTC $ENSO #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 $BTC Market Analysis (4-hour + 1-hour K-line) 4-hour level: Recovery rebound after a sharp drop, price stands above the short-term moving average, but the medium and long-term moving averages still exert downward pressure. MACD remains in the negative zone, indicating a rebound repair after a decline, not a reversal trend. Strong resistance above at 83248, key support below at 80351. 1-hour level: Continuous oscillating rise, SKDJ enters the high-level zone, short-term bullish momentum is somewhat exhausted, with the possibility of encountering resistance and falling at any time. Capital data 1. Long-short account ratio: The proportion of long accounts is higher; many retail investors are chasing the rebound, making them prone to being shaken out at resistance levels. 2. Open interest: Open interest has significantly decreased after the previous sharp drop, indicating a large number of leveraged liquidations exiting the market. Currently, open interest is slowly recovering, showing cautious capital sentiment. 3. Active buy-sell volume: Buying power has weakened, with no incremental funds continuously entering to push prices higher. Two scenario scripts 🔻Scenario One (high probability): Price hits the 83200~83248 resistance zone and shows signs of stagnation, which is a short-term shorting opportunity. The target is first 81500, and if broken, look down to the 80350 low. 🔺Scenario Two (low probability): Volume increases and price stabilizes above 83248, opening further rebound space. Do not blindly chase longs before a breakout! Practical trading ideas ✅Do not chase the rally! Minimize operations in the 81800-82800 oscillation range to avoid frequent stop losses. ✅Short positions: Wait for a rebound near 83200, enter when stagnation signals appear, strictly use stop loss. ✅Long positions: Only wait for a pullback to 804 Pimco Warning: Could the 10-Year US Treasury Yield Hit 6%, Can $BTC Still Hold Up?
Global bond giant Pimco has issued a warning that the 10-year US Treasury yield could rise to 6% in the short term, a level not seen since 2000.
High oil prices, inflationary pressures, fiscal deficits, and AI financing demand are all piling pressure on the US Treasury market. What’s more concerning is that if leveraged funds are forced to cut losses, it could trigger a chain sell-off, further pushing yields higher.
For $BTC, this is definitely not a small matter.
A continued rise in US Treasury yields means increased appeal of risk-free assets, potentially causing capital outflows from risk assets. If yields spike rapidly, Bitcoin may also struggle to remain unaffected in the short term.
However, note that 6% is currently just a risk scenario, not a guaranteed outcome. $ETH
Next, focus on the US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and BTC key support levels. If bond market pressure escalates, don’t blindly bottom-fish; if yields retreat, it might actually give risk assets a chance to breathe.
What do you think? If the 10-year US Treasury yield really hits 6%, will BTC directly break below $80,000, or will the negative news be priced in early and then reverse to rally? #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #全球长期国债收益率升至多年高位 Just saw Big Bro Maji's latest battle record, and I can only say he's really stubborn, extremely stubborn!
Last night $ETH plummeted, and Big Bro cut losses on 20,500 ETH, losing a total of $3.413 million! Over three million dollars, that amount could crush me if turned into steel coins, right? I thought Big Bro would be hurt by this cut and take a break, but he refused to give up and doubled down twice during the rebound at dawn!
Now his latest holding is 9,825 ETH (about $24.33 million), but the reality is harsh, currently floating a loss of $845,000.
The most critical thing is his liquidation price is 2430.27, only about 2% away from the current price! Just 2%, folks, basically the prick of a needle; if it dips just a bit more, tens of millions in positions will vanish into thin air, not even leaving a bone behind.
Honestly, this is pure gambler's psychology—losing and immediately wanting to add positions to break even, but the deeper you go, the worse it gets. Now he's directly being roasted on the fire.$ZEC is the most stubborn bull in this market.
Even after such a drop, the funding rate is still at the far right; I'm sweating for them.
The funding rate is still the most positive. While the entire market is deleveraging, its perpetual funding rate remains the most positive among the mainstream, indicating that longs are still adding in. This isn't courage; it's a lack of proper education.
The story is running ahead of liquidity. Its market cap has been pushed to the $20 billion level, with daily trading volume in the billions. The privacy coin narrative has indeed been repriced, but sustaining this scale relies on sentiment, not cash flow.
The ones that fall the hardest are the ones most crowded. Single-day drops exceed 10%, and seven-day drops range from 12% to 15%. The hardest falling coins are never those unwanted by anyone, but those where everyone is crowded in the same direction.
At this position, I won't touch it at all, nor will I short. Until the funding rate returns to zero, it can't be said to have fully washed out. Hello everyone, I am your old friend.
Previously, I quietly placed orders, reviewed, and digested~ From now on, I will document my life in the crypto world. When I turn 80, I will look back to see how I achieved financial freedom along the way 🤑😛.
Last night’s ETH trade taught me a lesson.
The initial short position was correct, with floating profits steadily increasing. Watching the profit curve, I started to get arrogant and thought about adding to the position to amplify gains.
But in the futures market, the biggest enemy is always your own greed. After adding to the position, the market quickly reversed, profits were given back, and the account went from profit to loss.
With 20x leverage, while amplifying profits, it also magnifies human weaknesses. When making money, it’s easy to mistakenly think it’s due to your own skill and ignore the market’s inherent uncertainty.
The market will never move according to our wishes. A single winning trade does not mean continuous correctness.
Review and reflection: After making a profit, prioritize protecting it rather than blindly adding to the position to increase size. A profitable trade is a reward from the market; the drawdown after adding to the position is a reminder from the market. The market never lacks opportunities; what’s lacking is the discipline to hold onto profits.
I feel like a fool for this move, crying now~
This afternoon, let ETH give me a wave so I can say 666 to myself $ETH short-term bearish for 1–2 weeks, with a 55–60% probability of downside, but limited room, considered a "pullback" rather than a "reversal." Current price $2,477–2,492, 24h −3%~−5.8%, 7-day −7.3%~−8.5%, 90-day +37.9%. The watershed is the 50-day EMA at $2,445–2,492, and the current price is exactly stuck here.
On 10/2, it surged to $2,777 but failed to hold, forming a double top with the 9/21 high of $2,775. It has fallen below the 20-day EMA (2,616–2,650), MACD shows a death cross, and KDJ J value is 2.42, extremely oversold. However, the price remains above the 50/100/200-day EMAs, with the 100-day above the 200-day — the mid-term structure remains intact, marking the boundary between a "correction vs reversal."
ETF net outflows have continued for 8 consecutive days, with nearly $506 million outflow in the last 5 days (the longest since January this year). Total net assets dropped from 17.78 billion to 15.64 billion (−12%). ETHA accounts for about 96% of the industry's cumulative net inflow, with 72%–100% of the outflow in the last three days coming from it. But cumulative net inflow is still +13.32 billion, and the 21-day measure is still +220 million — indicating a slowdown, not an exit. 📊 North Korean hackers stole over $1 billion in 2026, Q3 losses increased 54% quarter-on-quarter
▸ Over $1 billion: Chainalysis reported on October 1 that the $387.5 million stolen from Bitget on September 24 was attributed to North Korean-linked groups, with total North Korea-related crypto thefts surpassing $1 billion in 2026
▸ 54%: CertiK data shows Web3 losses reached $126 million in Q3 2026, a 53.9% increase quarter-on-quarter, with September alone recording $76.64 million in losses, a yearly record
▸ 95%: 95.5% of September's losses came from exploitations, with attack targets shifting from code vulnerabilities to exchange backends and cross-chain infrastructure
💡 The attackers' level of organization is surpassing the security investments of most projects. Individual users cannot change the big picture but can reduce their own exposure: cold-hot separation, least privilege, withdrawal whitelists. Cat Wallet's AI risk alerts and similar tools are valuable because they turn "invisible risks" into actionable steps.
#Web3Security #Hackers #IndustryTrends Green Hair hasn't posted for several days, I thought he had quit the internet and run away. I just went to check his historical positions, and wow, all long positions got liquidated, each one worse than the last.
Let's look at the specific data:
100x full position ETH long: -863.91U (-212.54%), average price 2709.76, directly liquidated
40x full position ZEC long: -1978.84U (-145.27%), average price 1362.17, directly liquidated
100x full position BTC long: -2441.67U (-169.03%), average price 85641.6, directly liquidated
100x full position BTC long: -314.10U (-106.16%), average price 82181.9, closed at 81354
100x full position ETH long: -309.55U (-245.38%), average price 2523, closed at 2462
The only profitable one was a 100x ETH long, which made 24.16U (+9.55%), just enough for the fees.
In total, he lost nearly 6000U, almost all with 100x leverage, and basically all the long positions are dead. He used to say he barely had floating profits, but now it’s clear he was just wishful thinking. By the way, is it because Green Hair’s green head is too conspicuous, and the pump-and-dump traders have been targeting him?
$ETH $ZEC $BTC Are the Americans addicted to moving coins? The day before yesterday, 3,200 coins were moved into Coinbase Prime, and yesterday another 12,267 coins (1.01 billion) were transferred from the Bitfinex case confiscated wallet into a new address. BTC briefly dropped to 81,300, down about 3%.
No need to panic too much, as these were not deposited into exchanges for trading; the recipient is a new unlabeled address. Coinbase Prime is just custody, not selling. The executive order also stipulates that confiscated BTC goes into strategic reserves and is generally not sold. The government holds about 306,800 coins (24.85 billion), more like internal warehouse transfers. But market panic is understandable, with rate hike expectations, US debt yields breaking 5.3%, oil prices over 100, risk assets are inherently fragile, and these transfers just hand the shorts a knife.
The clever move is that these BTC were not bought with a single cent, all confiscated! Bitfinex 94,000, Silk Road 65,000, FTX/Alameda confiscated, and still not allowed to sell. Trump is impressive, building reserves through confiscation, establishing his image, without spending a dime. $BTC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 October 9, 2026, 13:37 N1 Review and Trading Ideas
Yesterday, BTC did not break below 80,900 on the 4-hour chart and successfully reclaimed 80,900 afterward. I kept reminding everyone to closely watch the recovery of 80,900, firmly believing in the support at 80,900 to restore confidence.
Yesterday there was a false breakout, briefly dipping to 80,300, which was a deliberate panic washout by the market makers. Here's the logic: at that time, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields both pulled back simultaneously, but BTC continued to fall; in contrast, gold rose against the trend, further confirming that this BTC drop was a panic move deliberately created by funds rather than a fundamental bearish signal.
Today's key focus: whether the 82,800~82,900 range can hold. The current price is still 400 points below 82,900. Once it effectively breaks above 82,900, a short squeeze is likely to start, putting those who shorted yesterday at great risk.
Today's trading plan
Short position: enter short at 82,888
Stop loss: stop loss 500 points above if it breaks upward
Take profit: exit at 81,900
Long position idea: buy the first lot when price pulls back to 81,900, add more at 80,900Watching the market finally catch a breath, pulling back from the low of 80400, this bullish candle finally gives some hope. But don't be too optimistic; this is just a rebound after a deep drop. MA5 has just slightly turned up, but MA10 and MA20 are still pressing down hard overhead, so the major downtrend hasn't completely reversed.
The previous level at 82428 is the first hurdle; pushing up to here is likely to encounter selling pressure.
Think about it, if it can't break through this resistance this time, market sentiment could easily turn cold again, and might it go back to test the low at 80400? $BTC BTC crypto friends growing mushrooms, eight research reports released in half a day
Fictional short play: Alan bought a box of mushroom spawn, followed the instructions for care, and solemnly declared: "This time, I will be a long-termist."
Twenty minutes later, he took a photo: no change, temporarily observing.
Forty minutes later, he changed the angle: seems a bit more white, suspected to be starting.
An hour passed without mushrooms growing, he began writing a report: "The fundamentals haven't changed, but it's necessary to reassess the management."
Family asked: "Management, is that you who just sprayed water on it?"
In the afternoon, he held three meetings about the spawn box, made eight research reports, and finally suspected this box of mushrooms lacked growth potential. The seller only replied: "It was sent out just yesterday, and you want it to prove its whole life today?"
Promised to observe over a longer cycle, but judged success or failure by every tiny change—this kind of busyness is probably familiar to crypto friends. The plan says patience, but the actual execution feels like scoring every minute.
Observation is certainly useful, but how long to observe and which changes warrant adjustment must be thought through in advance. Otherwise, before the thing has time to change, your conclusion has already ridden a roller coaster.
At night, Alan finally put down his phone and stuck a note on the box:
"Please report according to the growth cycle, do not cater to shareholder sentiment."
#BTC #CryptoDaily #TradingMindset The worst thing in the crypto world isn't getting the direction wrong, but just after you stop loss, the market immediately moves against you! 😂
The rolling trader yesterday was a vivid example. He opened a long BTC position at $82,823, stopped loss at $81,940 after a drop, losing $300,000 directly. Then he immediately opened a short position of 200 BTC at $81,743, worth $16.48 million. Unexpectedly, BTC rebounded again, and the short position lost another $150,000. With $700,000 principal, now only $250,000 remains. $BTC
I can only say, this kind of continuous flipping is the most painful; losing money is secondary, the mindset is easily shattered by the market.
On the other side, a whale holding huge long positions in BTC and ETH was even more brutal. At 2:00 AM, 28,700 ETH were liquidated near $2,420, losing $4.48 million. Then half an hour later, he injected 10 million USDC as margin and reopened a long position of 9,580 ETH. $ETH
Now he still holds about $288 million in long positions, with an unrealized loss of $9.71 million, including about $195 million in ETH longs and about $93.31 million in BTC longs.
After seeing these two rounds of operations, my feeling is: some people are forced to keep flipping by the market, some lose millions but still continue to go long. But especially at times like this, you can't judge direction by position size. The former is about to lose their principal, the latter is still risking real money.
The market won't show mercy and pull you up just because you lost a lot.This passage is reminding everyone about a Bitcoin security issue: approximately 31.2% of BTC have their public keys already exposed. 👀 But note, public key exposure does not mean Bitcoin can be stolen.
🔍 Simple explanation in Chinese
According to Glassnode data cited in this post:
About 6.26 million BTC public keys have been exposed, accounting for about 31.2% of the total Bitcoin supply.
At the beginning of 2021, this ratio was about 24.8%, and it has increased now.
Among them, about 4.33 million BTC are related to address reuse.
Another approximately 1.94 million BTC involve script types such as P2PK, Taproot, etc.
🔐 Why is public key exposure worth attention?
Bitcoin uses cryptography to protect assets:
Private Key: equivalent to the key controlling BTC, must be kept secret.
Public Key: used for cryptographic verification, can be exposed in some cases.
Address: usually generated from public key-related information, used to receive BTC.
Once the public key is exposed, theoretically, some security assumptions relying on the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem become more critical. If sufficiently powerful quantum computers emerge in the future, they may pose a threat to some existing public key cryptographic systems.#BTCETFBiggestOutflow The short position just closed, and the long position immediately got crushed to the ground. Is this market trying to drive people crazy?
Last night, I took profits on the short $BTC position at 81500. On a whim, I thought since it dropped so much, I might as well try to catch a rebound up to 84000. But what happened? As soon as I entered, it started floating in loss, and that midnight spike plunged straight down to 79000, which gave me chills down my spine. Fortunately, it temporarily hit the brakes around 80500. Now the weak rebound is hovering around 82000. This trade is a life-or-death line; it depends on whether it can retake 82600. If it can't hold, there will be new lows ahead. Only if it holds can we dare to hope for 85000.
Looking at $ETH, it's a nightmare level. In three days, it plunged from 2750 to 2400. This kind of slow decline is the most soul-crushing. Long positions entered at the low have lost all profits, and those holding at the high are bleeding heavily. It's been really tough for the bulls these days.
With such extreme moves now, don't get carried away. Control your hands and watch first. Wait for the market to give a clear bottom signal before making any moves.$BTC Came back from lunch to find it at 82,500, but I can't feel happy at all.
I woke up this morning around 82,000, thinking it would bounce back a bit in the afternoon. But after lunch, it only went up a few thousand, like it barely lifted its head before dropping back down to grind. The 83,000 line wasn't reclaimed yesterday, nor this morning, and now it's even further away, looking like it's deliberately keeping you waiting.
$ETH is hovering around 2490, still can't reach 2500. $SOL is just above 110, quiet all day. Friday afternoons like this are the most frustrating—not a sharp drop, but fake rebounds and real sideways movement, fingers hovering over buy/sell buttons but unable to press. The more it refreshes, the emptier it feels; the emptier it feels, the more you want to make a move. This is when mistakes are easiest to make.
The weekend is almost here, and these sluggish markets make your hands itchy. I'm not moving my position for now, treating this rebound as fake, watching 83,000—if it doesn't reclaim it, I won't add. How about you?
Do you think $BTC can reclaim 83,000 before the weekend? Reply 1 if yes, 0 if no #OpenAI revenue reporting controversy, AI investment returns under scrutiny
The leader has something to say
There is an issue with OpenAI's revenue reporting. Previously, the widely circulated annualized revenue was 70 billion, but the version shown to investors is close to 50 billion. It's not that revenue dropped, but the accounting method changed. Whether to include sales revenue from cloud partners or not—two methods differ by 20 billion.
The market voted with its feet. Nvidia fell 2.9%, Oracle dropped 5%, CoreWeave nearly 8%, Nasdaq down 1.25%, the worst day since mid-August. AI stocks collectively corrected.
What does this mean? AI commercialization is not that transparent. Revenue data can be adjusted, and the 1.4 trillion valuation relies entirely on these numbers. Broadcom is still discussing arranging 50 billion financing for OpenAI to buy chips; the more money poured in, the more unclear the returns become.
This indirectly affects crypto. AI stock correction shrinks risk appetite in the short term, putting pressure on Bitcoin as well. More importantly, the market is starting to question the returns of AI's money-burning model, and this skepticism will spread to all high-valuation assets.
My short position at 86500 is still open. The logic hasn't changed: positive news has been realized, resistance above is dense, and funds are withdrawing. Stop loss at 87500, target between 84500 and 85000. Time to reduce positions, keep the rest at breakeven. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
Manage position size well, avoid heavy exposure. AI narrative is loosening, macro pressure remains, set stop losses properly, don't hold through.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set. Good luck.🚨 $ZEC Traders, Don't Rush to Catch the Bottom! The privacy-coin rally may have already priced in much of the positive news, making every rebound worth watching carefully. $ZEC explosive September rally was fueled by growing ETF-related optimism and strong market momentum. But once bullish news is fully priced in, the market can shift quickly from excitement to profit-taking. 📉 What deserves attention now? - ETF sentiment: Monitor Grayscale-related fund flows for signs of continued institutiThose liquidated for about $69.69 million still hold nearly 200 million worth of ETH long positions.
Lookonchain: Previously, a whale holding 98,089 ETH longs was partially liquidated for 28,716 ETH worth about $69.69 million during this downturn; still holding 78,955 ETH worth about $195.57 million, with new liquidation prices around 2299.09 and 2286.28. Compared to yesterday's two liquidation prices of 2446.48/2424.47, this cut has already gone past. At the time of writing, ETH on OKX is about 2495, roughly $196 above the new liquidation line.
What worries me is that 80% of the position remains, and the next line at 2299 is not far. He hasn't stopped loss and exited, indicating he's still betting on a rebound, but the leverage hasn't been fully unloaded.
For the next move, do you bet it will first break through 2299, or will he add margin to hold on?
Keep an eye on this; if there are new changes in this position, I'll continue writing.
$ETH The market may gradually regain confidence, but it's best to watch the volume and sustainability, not just a brief breakout.
Scenario 2: Breaking below $80K and continuing to weaken
This could trigger more stop-losses and leveraged liquidations, adding extra selling pressure. However, you can't determine how much further it will fall just based on breaking support.
💡 My interpretation
Currently, this post expresses a cautious short-term bearish view, not that Bitcoin's long-term trend has completely turned bearish.
Note: ETF outflows and oil price data should be verified for specific dates and statistical criteria; based on this post alone, it's impossible to confirm the accuracy of these figures.
In summary: $80K is the key battleground between bulls and bears, $84K is the level that needs to be reclaimed for a rebound. Don't assume a rebound just because the price is near support, nor conclude a bear market has started just because of a brief breakdown. #BTCETFBiggestOutflow $BTC Update: Can Bitcoin Reclaim $83,000? 📊 Bitcoin’s current long setup is no longer looking favorable. If you're expecting a big profit from this position, the chances look limited for now. Even if $BTC moves higher, it may need a period of consolidation before making another decisive move. That process could take around 10 days, although nothing is guaranteed. For those holding long positions, don’t panic—but stay realistic about the risks. 🎯 Key levels to watch: - $83,000: The first majoBig Brother Maji Fully Revived: BTC+ETH Dual Forces in Position, Betting Big This Time
As soon as this snapshot was released, the community immediately buzzed—after a significant profit-taking and rest period, he has redeployed a complete offensive formation.
- BTC Long Position｜40X Full Margin
9 BTC entered with high leverage, opening at 82535.4, fully leveraged at 40x with elastic margin maxed out; currently the floating loss isn't large, but this kind of leverage has extremely narrow tolerance for error, a sharp spike could directly trigger liquidation.
More like a forward position aimed at quick recovery and rapid attack.
- ETH Long Position｜25X Full Margin
The main battlefield where the real heavy bet is placed: 11,100 ETH, position value 27,680,100, almost the majority of the account's size.
Opened at 2554.31, already carrying a significant floating loss and continuously bearing funding fees; the liquidation range is very close to the current price, enduring great stamina and holding costs to stubbornly fight through this mid-term recovery.$BTC : Why Is Everyone Suddenly Calling for $40,000? In a typical bull-market correction, Bitcoin can pull back around 10%–15% after reaching a short-term peak. If we consider $87,000 as the recent local top, a correction toward the $76,000–$80,000 range would still be within that historical pattern. So why does every small pullback suddenly turn into a $40,000 prediction? When Bitcoin rallies, everyone starts talking about $100,000. When it drops, the same people immediately expect $40,000. RemNo matter how much you buy ETFs, you can't outmatch interest rates
Gold shows a rare divergence: Gold ETFs had a net inflow of $31 billion in Q3, with total holdings reaching 4,256 tons, a record; yet gold prices fell to $4,066, hitting the lowest point since August 5. Money is flowing in, but prices are falling, indicating that short-term pricing power is not in the hands of ETFs.
The real pressure comes from interest rates. U.S. Treasury yields are at 5.36%, the dollar is strengthening, and futures longs are reducing positions. Middle East tensions push oil prices higher, reigniting inflation and interest rate expectations, raising the cost of holding gold. In a high interest rate environment, even safe-haven assets may not be safe. Marginal pricing depends on interest rates and futures, not ETF subscriptions and redemptions.
The crypto market is the same. Bitcoin ETFs have inflows, but leverage liquidation is not over: $57.7 million in long positions were liquidated in 24 hours, and the long end of U.S. Treasuries at 5.7% continues to suppress all risk assets. ETF inflows provide long-term support, but in the short term, they struggle against macro pressure and deleveraging.
Therefore, keep positions light, avoid heavy holdings, and don't hold through losses. Set stop losses in advance; analysis is time-sensitive. Survive first, then talk about direction. Good luck.Macro: Geopolitical risk volatility + US stock market volatility + yield curve pullback downward (30Y-5.61%) (bullish)
Data: Coinbase premium negative expansion + ETF outflows (spot buying has not returned)
BTC short-term support: 80400 / 78400; resistance: 83000 / 84200
ETH short-term support: 2420 / 2360; resistance: 2510 / 2580
Those who shorted at 872 can basically take partial profits in batches. The weekend should basically see low volume volatility with no major changes.
After stabilizing around 8.05 and with reduced volume, a small long position can be considered. There is not much macro stimulus from Friday to the weekend, probably just the US stock market opening at 9:30 PM tonight.
This year, the overall decline and pullback in government bond yields is slightly bullish for risk assets. The US stock market can hold for now, and the probability of a direct drop to 78000 is low. The low-volume weekend pattern looks good; after stabilizing, a small long position can be tried.📉 $ETH: Why Has Ethereum Become the Market Focus Again?
Whenever the market experiences a significant pullback, Ethereum's capital flows and liquidation data spark renewed discussion.
This time, $ETH's performance is especially worth watching. Rather than simply following the overall market decline, it's better to observe its own trend: Ethereum showed signs of relative weakness even before some parts of the market dropped.
📊 Several signals to watch:
🔻 Widening decline: Nearly 4% drop in a single day, close to 9% cumulative decline over the past 7 days, underperforming BTC.
💥 Increased liquidation pressure: According to relevant data, ETH liquidation amounts exceeded $300 million, even higher than BTC, reflecting significant pressure on leveraged positions in the market.
🏦 ETF capital outflows: Net outflows occurred for two consecutive trading days, reportedly involving the same institution, warranting continued observation of subsequent capital movements.
When market risk appetite declines, high-volatility assets are often more susceptible to selling pressure. However, short-term declines and liquidation data alone cannot prove the market is targeting a specific asset.
Going forward, the key lies in whether ETH can stabilize and if ETF capital flows show improvement.
🤔 Do you think ETH's current weakness is just a short-term deleveraging, or does it indicate that its performance relative to BTC may continue to lag?
#ETH #Ethereum #BTC #CryptoMarket #ETF Everyone thinks the V-shaped reversal is here? Don’t overthink it. $ETH dropped to 2,405 before bouncing to 2,486. To me, that still looks like a bearish continuation, not a confirmed reversal. I opened a short at 2,488. 📉 Position: 2 $ETH | 100x leverage Current price: 2,484 Floating profit: +12% (+6U) Liquidation price: 2,551 There’s still some room before liquidation, but the trade remains high-risk. In a downtrend, every bullish candle can be a trap for late buyers. The stronger the rebouSOL is struggling a lot on these 4-hour candles; the price is inching up, but the trading volume is shrinking sharply. This is dragging down some of the old key projects in the ecosystem, which are starting to weaken. Take another look at AVAX and NEAR — the gains from the rebound the day before yesterday were completely given back today. The resistance above is like a solid concrete wall that can’t be broken. This kind of zero-sum game means funds are guerrilla-fighting back and forth among several public chains with no sustainability; whichever one you chase, it fizzles out. Anyway, I’m holding back and waiting for this batch of early movers to step on each other’s positions before making a move.
$SOL $SUI $APT Last night my hand trembled slightly when setting the stop loss, but this morning I realized it was an unnecessary act of filial piety. Yesterday at dawn, $MON was moving sideways at a high level, heavily suppressed above, every upward surge was just short of breath. I directly signaled a short near 0.03112; the direction was clear: short.
During the intraday bottom consolidation, some asked if there would be a rebound. I said the volume didn’t keep up, no one was catching on the way up, so any bounce was just giving short positions an opportunity. Now it’s been pressed down from 0.02448 all the way to 0.02448, with unrealized short profits of +1066.83%. This gain feels good.
First, close 80%, keep 20% to protect the cost price. If it continues to drop, let the profit run; if it rebounds, don’t give back the profits.
The market waits to be timed, profits wait to be held. Don’t lose patience in the choppy market and then try to regain dignity in a one-sided move.
For those who haven’t caught up yet, don’t envy. Now is not the time to rush; wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, and move when the next signal appears.
$ADA $LAB ETH has pulled back to around 2490, and babala's long position has finally eased up a bit😭
$BTC $ETH
The cost near 2558 is still at a loss, but compared to when I was watching 2420, my mood is completely different now.
Earlier I was thinking "just lose less," but now my mind is starting to wonder "can it just pull back to cost directly." When the price rises, people's expectations really rise with it.
What this trade has made me realize the most is that when the position size is too large, emotions are always driven by the price. The comfort of building positions in batches and holding small positions before is all gone this time.
Next, I still need to remember my original rule: reduce positions near the cost to lower the position size.
First, let the floating loss continue to narrow, and remind myself not to want to catch every rise just after a sigh of relief.$BTC spot ETF is still experiencing continuous outflows, and there is no sign of institutional inflows. This rebound looks more like a brief pause during a downtrend, a technical pullback.
$CORE continues to build!Single Coin Contract Fluctuation｜Last 15 Minutes
$XRP rose accompanied by position reduction, with a buying bias at the end. Price +0.41%, open interest -2.90%; volume 6,552,000 USDT, 3.9 times the 15-minute average volume converted from the previous hour. At the end, 86.1% was actively bought, with the price up +0.27% during this period.Brothers
The BTC spot ETF is still experiencing continuous outflows, and there is no sign of institutional inflows. This rebound looks more like a brief pause during a downtrend, a technical pullback.
From the market perspective, the rebound volume is insufficient, there is heavy selling pressure above, and the bulls do not have enough strength to reverse this downtrend. The overall direction remains bearish, with the current target at 78000.
I have to say, shorting is definitely faster than going long 😄
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
$BTC $ETH Variational @variational_io has started distributing points
▪️ Last week scored 6.13 points with 120U wear
▪️ The cost per point is about 20U
Based on the current pre-market point value, even with such a roll-up, it's roughly double
And the points from the hedging platform Extended haven't been counted yet 😋