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What's the current situation with Bitcoin? Is it continuing to plunge or rebounding?
Bitcoin is currently around $82,500, with a Fear and Greed Index of 59 (neutral). It has dropped about 4.8% this week, once falling below 80,000 to 80,427 before rebounding.
Technical analysis: Range between $81,000 and $86,500. Resistance at $83,600–$84,500 and $87,200–$87,400; support at $81,000–$82,000 and $77,000. RSI is about 51, MACD is above the zero line but under short-term pressure, with support near the lower Bollinger Band.
Capital flow: ETFs saw a net outflow of $729 million over two days, with a cumulative outflow of $407 million in October. The average ETF cost is about $81,722, with clear "sell to break even" pressure; BlackRock's IBIT saw a counter-trend inflow of $332.5 million.
Sentiment and analysis: Sentiment dropped from greed at 71 to neutral at 59, with the market estimating about a 67% chance of breaking below 80,000. Currently, this is a technical correction driven by macro bearish factors, likely maintaining a range-bound movement between $81,000 and $86,500 in the short term. The key focus is the CPI on October 14. If it exceeds expectations, the 80,000 level will face pressure; if moderate, negative funding rates may trigger short covering.
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Brothers, after a night of declines for BTC and ETH, there's a slight recovery, but ETH is still struggling around the 2500 mark
$BTC $82,500 | $ETH $2,487
Bitcoin rebounded from around 81,000 to 82,500, while Ethereum is consolidating near 2,487. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidations reached $148 million, with shorts accounting for 72%. Shorts were squeezed during the rebound, leading to a brief tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
ETH ETF has been running for 8 consecutive days, and the largest buyer is about to stop
The divergence in capital flows continues to widen. The Ethereum spot ETF has seen net outflows for 8 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative loss of 579 million since October. More importantly, BitMine's holdings have reached 4.9% of ETH circulating supply, just about 100,000 tokens shy of the 5% limit. At the current pace, it will stop increasing holdings in 6-7 weeks. The largest marginal buyer in recent months is about to exit, and the market is pricing in this gap in advance.
US Treasury yields retreat from highs, but pressure remains
The 10-year US Treasury yield fell from a 20-year high of 5.35% to around 5.25%, and demand for the 30-year bond auction was robust, with yields briefly spiking then retreating. However, Fed official Musalem still stated that "further rate hikes may be needed in the next 6-9 months," indicating that macro headwinds have not truly reversed.
Technically, there is a large whale liquidation line near ETH 2,445, and BTC has short-term support below 82,000.
Let's discuss in the comments: can this rebound hold?
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 最近BTC的走势像极了一段拉扯型恋爱 10月8日一度跌破8.1万 全网约10亿美元仓位被清算 第二天又回到8.25万附近 你以为要分手了 结果人家只是出门冷静了一下 但这周真正值得看的不是价格 是ETF的资金流 10月8日现货比特币ETF单日净流出约4.85亿美元 是6月以来最大的一天 9日又流出约2.44亿 以太坊ETF已经连续8天净流出 说白了 机构不是不爱了 是现在外面的诱惑太多 原油逼近100美元 美债收益率在2002年以来的高位 美联储加息还没收手 无风险收益这么香 风险资产自然要多解释几句 就像对象问你 我凭什么不选那个有房有车工作稳定的 还有个小细节挺有意思 不少矿企在往AI算力转型 MARA刚把约8110万美元的BTC转给Galaxy 矿工也开始搞副业了 这个周期的叙事确实在换赛道 不过也别只盯坏消息 泰国监管批准了本地上市的加密ETF 10月16日生效 BTC和ETH首批纳入 亚洲的门在一点点打开 我的观察是 短期先看宏观脸色 油价和美债不松口 BTC大概率在区间里磨 QCP给的四季度区间是8万到9万 可以当参考 不用当圣旨 这种时候最忌讳情绪上头 涨了觉得要去月球 Bitcoin and Ethereum have really crashed these past couple of days. BTC dropped below 82,000, and ETH also fell to around 2,480. The whole market sentiment is terrible,
altcoins are plummeting along with it. I thought it would keep falling, so I opened a few short positions on altcoins, but I woke up to find all of them stuck, and now I want to join the bulls.
The most frustrating these days is $LAB. Yesterday I saw it rise 19%, and I thought this thing tends to spike down whenever the market dips, so I shorted it without hesitation. Now I'm stuck tight; it barely fell and is just sideways. This manipulator is really skilled, so I plan to hold a bit longer and add to my shorts when it rallies—I don't believe it won't spike down.
Also $MAGIC, it rose 39% today, while this morning it was only up 19%. I'm tempted to go long but afraid it will pump then dump like yesterday. It's really hard to short altcoins in this bull market, same with CAP; it kept dropping for days but then V-shaped back up. I'll wait for these altcoins to drop and then look for opportunities to go long and join the bulls.
Lastly, about oil $BZ, this has been my only consolation these past days. I still hold the short position opened at 104, with over 7U floating profit. While the market falls, oil actually rises. I originally planned to close at 97, but now it seems to be struggling to rise, so I plan to hold a bit longer. It usually fluctuates between 96 and 100, hoping it hits 97 so I can take profit.
Except for oil being somewhat right, everything else is really uncertain these days, it's tough.
Keep it up, genius traders. Ledger供应链攻击：8600万美元被盗，CZ发出警告，你的硬件钱包可能已被篡改 2026年10月9日，硬件钱包巨头Ledger发布紧急公告，正在调查一起涉及东南亚用户的资产被盗事件。链上调查员Specter追踪到的损失已超过8600万美元，涉及比特币、以太坊和波场网络上数百个钱包地址。这不是智能合约漏洞，也不是私钥被暴力破解，而是一次典型的供应链攻击。 事件的源头指向一家名为CryptoBilis的东南亚经销商，该经销商在印度尼西亚、马来西亚和菲律宾被列为Ledger的官方授权经销商。Ledger在公告中表示，已要求CryptoBilis暂停所有销售和发货，直至调查结束。这意味着，问题可能出在设备送达用户手中之前——攻击者通过篡改硬件或在设备中预置已知的恢复短语，在用户存入资金后远程窃取资产。 币安创始人CZ在X平台发帖警告所有Ledger用户，尤其是近期购买设备的用户。他表示，根据目前掌握的信息，这似乎是一起局限于单一经销商的供应链攻击，少数用户可能买到了假冒或遭篡改的Ledger设备。CZ同时强调，Ledger仍然是行业内历史悠久、安全性较高的硬件钱包品牌，但这类事件仍然可能发The facade of this building is still shedding bricks, but the load-bearing walls haven't cracked — $INJ is currently at such an acceptance checkpoint.
It dropped 5.93% in 24 hours, and the market is like owners shouting 'the building is collapsing' just because the scaffolding tilted by two degrees. But when I open the structural drawings: the short-term RSI has already dropped to 32.2; this is not a collapse, but a stress release in the oversold zone. The long-term RSI steadies at 49.7, neutral to slightly weak, indicating the main framework's rebar hasn't yielded. What really made me pause is the position of the Bollinger Bands — the short-term price is stuck at the 13th percentile, only 0.8% away from the lower band; the mid-term is even more extreme, at the 2nd percentile, just 0.2% from the lower band. This is not random fluctuation; the price has dug the foundation to the design elevation's limit.
Anyone who does architectural design knows this principle: when a floor slab is compressed to its limit deflection, there are only two outcomes — either it breaks or it rebounds. And $INJ's underlying architecture is the steel structure in a modular public chain, not some brick-and-mortar small property built on marketing hype. The whitepaper is the blueprint; the real load-bearing walls are developer activity and ecosystem scalability, and these two pillars currently show no shear cracks.
So my trading logic is very clear: no chasing highs, no catching falling knives, place orders at construction joints.
📈 Long:
Entry: 4.76 (current price -3.3%)
Take Profit 1: 5.31 (+8.0%)
Take Profit 2: 5.42 (+10.2%)
Stop Loss: 4.19 (-14.8%)
Note the Entry position — it’s not at the current price, but requires the price to drop another 3.3% before entering. This is the discipline of a structural engineer: I’m buying the mechanical advantage of a rebound from the lower band, not sentiment. The mid-term Bollinger Band lower band is only 0.2% away, meaning this entry point is almost right above the support beam, with a risk-reward ratio close to 1:0.7; the take profit space of 10.2% faces a possible 14.8% pullback, which is a standard low-buy structure.
If the price breaks below 4.19, that’s not a correction, it’s foundation failure, and the whole building needs a new geotechnical survey — I won’t cling to the position. But as long as the ring beam at 4.76 holds, a rebound to the upper band at 5.31 is like completing a beautiful parapet pour.
The construction drawings have been reviewed; the rest is up to structural mechanics.$MAGIC surged 36% in one day, and I stubbornly opened a small short position 👊
MAGIC went straight from 0.066 to 0.128 today, a 36.84% surge in one day, 117% up in 7 days, and an incredible 185% in 30 days. The 24-hour trading volume hit 300 million, with explosive volume; this rally was sharp and fierce.
Watching it stall at 0.12840 after the spike, RSI6 is around 66, and the MACD red bars are starting to shorten—signs of a pullback after the surge are showing. I couldn’t resist and opened a small short position near 0.124, betting it needs a breather after such a big rise. The previous high at 0.12840 is my stop-loss line; if it breaks, I’ll admit defeat immediately.
However, this kind of short-term nearly doubled monster coin carries extremely high risk when trying to short at the top against the trend; it could surge again anytime. I’m testing with a small position and will exit if it pulls back.
Brothers, do you dare to short such a skyrocketing coin? Can I wait for a pullback on this trade? Let’s chat in the comments.🙈#波动雷达：币种异动观察 #创作者激励 #OKX星球话题来啦 Saturday, October 10, 2026! BTC has risen again,
Key points at a glance:
Macro theme: Expectations of US-Iran peace talks ease, crude oil surge is blocked/falls back, suppressing secondary inflation concerns. Tightening negative factors are released, some safe-haven funds flow into gold, and US stocks and BTC see a risk appetite recovery.
Key trend: $80,000 is the macro defense line that must not be breached; the strong resistance at $83,000 – $83,500 above determines whether the upward space can be reopened.
Key observations for the future (three major scenarios): Breakthrough in peace talks / oil price decline breaks through $83,500, triggering a new round of rally. Negotiations break down / conflict escalates, oil/gold surge, BTC tests $80,000 for a second bottom. Deadlock tug-of-war, oscillating and consolidating within the $80,000 – $83,500 range. $BTC $UNI Two-way explosive point warning
A 21.38% surge in OI means both bulls and bears are highly crowded: holding $7.00 will trigger a short squeeze and a quick rebound; breaking $7.00 will cause long liquidations and accelerate the decline. Regardless of direction, the short term will be highly volatile, with position sizing and stop-loss as the primary lifelines. 据链上监测平台Lookonchain数据显示，比特币矿业公司MARA Holdings近日将996枚BTC（约8113万美元）转移至Galaxy Digital相关钱包，市场普遍解读为抛售。 此前MARA上半年已卖出超2.3万枚BTC用于还债和转型AI业务。 👉🏻短期影响 996枚BTC金额不算小，但放到比特币日交易量里其实有限。这次转移正好碰上市场超10亿美元清算潮，价格从8.1万左右短暂承压后快速反弹回8.2万上方。 短期会带来一点情绪压力和卖盘，但很难单独砸出大坑，更多是加剧波动，让原本就谨慎的资金更观望。 👉🏻长期影响 MARA这几年一直在减持$BTC ，从高峰5万多枚降到3万多枚，主要是为了还债、补充流动性和转向AI算力业务。这是公司自己的战略调整，不是对BTC基本面看空。 矿工卖币本就常见，用来覆盖电费和运营成本。 比特币长期走势更多看的还是机构资金、ETF流向、宏观利率和供需，单一矿企的动作影响有限。 👉🏻综合判断 短期中性偏空（有一定抛压和情绪扰动），长期看影响有限。 这次事件不会改变大方向，更多是提醒大家关注矿工整体持仓变化。 👉🏻新手提示 别被单条链Leverage liquidations are complete, and panic selling has mostly subsided. What’s next?
The sharp drop the day before yesterday probably still has many people shaken. BTC plunged straight down to 80500, ETH fell below 2500 to 2420, and ZEC dropped 14% in one day. Across the entire network, 1.1 billion in liquidations occurred within 24 hours, with 180,000 people forcibly liquidated, 90% of whom were long positions.
But today the trend changed. BTC bounced back from 80500 all the way to 82500, reducing its loss from -3% to -0.5%; ETH reclaimed 2500; ZEC rebounded over 10%.
In short: those who needed to be liquidated were liquidated, those who needed to cut losses did so.
The 80,000 integer level was tested only once yesterday before being pulled back, indicating real buying power. As long as it doesn’t fall below 81000 again tonight, the short-term bottom is very likely established. ETH broke 2500 yesterday but recovered today, with panic selling mostly absorbed.
Leverage has been cleared, floating positions flushed out, and sentiment has shifted from extreme panic to cautious observation—this usually signals consolidation and bottom formation, not the start of a new crash.
But don’t confuse bottoming with reversal. Macro pressures remain, FOMC is hawkish, ETF funds are still flowing out, and whether the rebound can sustain depends on volume. The biggest risk here is rushing to short as soon as 80,000 is pulled back—bears have already had their fill; chasing now is like running into a blade.
The first rebound after a crash is a recovery, not a trend reversal. Don’t mistake the rebound for a reversal.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Should you chase this $BTC rebound or not?
Honestly, when I opened OKX this morning and saw Bitcoin pull back from just over 80,000 to 82,600, my heart skipped a beat. But just that one beat.
With this market, I definitely dare not chase.
Let's talk about Bitcoin first.
On the surface, the oversold rebound after the sharp drop looks somewhat legitimate. The price climbed up from the 80,344 low, and on the 30-minute chart it has already touched the upper Bollinger Band. But if you look closely, the 83,000-83,500 range, which was previously a consolidation zone broken to the downside, has now turned into a strong selling pressure zone. More importantly, between 84,000 and 86,000 there is over 1.5 billion in short liquidation pressure stacked up. If the price really breaks through, a short squeeze rocket could ignite at any time. But the question is—can it break through?
If it can't hold above 84,000, this rebound is just a "correction," not a "reversal."
Also, there are quite a few trapped longs above. The two attempts to push to 87,000 on October 2 and 5 were both rejected. The double top at 87,000-87,400 has formed, and bulls and bears are currently tugging at the 84,000 level. If there is another fake breakout here, those chasing in will be caught like filling in a dumpling.
Now, about the news—this is the real reason I dare not act rashly.
After the Fed's September minutes came out, officials clearly indicated there might be another rate hike before year-end, shattering the market's previous "rate hikes are done" fantasy. Although oil prices fell a bit after Trump said to pause strikes on Iran, Brent crude is still hovering around $104, and inflationary pressure hasn't truly eased.
The only long-term positive I see is that on October 5, the SEC and CFTC jointly issued a statement recognizing $BTC, $ETH, $XRP, and three other major coins as non-securities, and the SEC approved six triple-leveraged ETFs. This is indeed a major regulatory positive with sound long-term logic.
But in the short term? The good news has been priced in, the bad news hasn't landed yet, and the FOMC meeting at the end of October still looms.
$ETH is even weaker.
It rebounded from above 2,400 to 2,489, nearly a 4% gain, but considering its prior drop, this rebound barely recovers any ground. $ETH has broken below its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, showing a clearly bearish short-term structure. The ETF side is even more painful—eight consecutive trading days of net outflows totaling about $624 million, with no net inflows this week. The ETH balance on exchanges is still rising, increasing by about 230,000 coins over the past two weeks, indicating potential selling pressure is still building.
So I’m watching two levels: if 2,550 is not broken, the overall trend is weak; if 2,460 doesn't hold, 2,400 will likely be tested again.
$SOL is moving with the market but its fundamentals are actually not bad.
It rebounded from 105 to around 109, roughly in sync. On-chain data is quite impressive—the network size grew 124% since early September, daily active addresses reached 4.27 million, Q3 application revenue hit $365 million, leading for the tenth consecutive quarter. Samsung Wallet also announced support for USDC cross-border transfers on Solana, covering 82 million US Galaxy devices.
But ETF funds are flowing out—four consecutive trading days of net outflows, $4.8 million on October 7, and another $3.32 million on October 8. With strong fundamentals but short-term capital retreat, rushing in amid this divergence could get you shaken out even if the direction is right.
So my approach is simple:
$BTC—consider only if it holds above 84,000; if not, the rebound is capped.
$ETH—watch 2,550 and 2,460 closely; break above is bullish, break below is bearish, no middle ground.
$SOL—hold off for now; 109-110 is the short-term lifeline; if broken, look down to 112 or even 108.
Long term, I remain bullish; the bull market may really not be over. But "being optimistic about the future" and "chasing every rebound" are two different things. The market is always there, but losing principal is not easy to recover. Controlling your impulses is more important than anything.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #跟着OKX打卡2049 最新资讯，几条大事儿必须盯紧了。 宏观与地缘这条线，特朗普和普京谈完，俄罗斯要往美国及全球市场供应大量柴油，这手操作直接搅动能源市场情绪。另一边，普京说乌方行为导致俄乌谈判暂时没法恢复，美乌欧代表在迈阿密谈了六小时想统一和平提案。地缘风险没散，资金避险情绪随时可能被点着。 加密监管这边，美CFTC动手了，想把预测市场事件合约塞进掉期监管框架，Kalshi、Polymarket这些平台上的体育、政治、文化、天气合约都要被CFTC管起来。这是联邦监管权的争夺战，预测市场赛道要变天，政策不确定性就是最大的风险，别装作看不见。 币圈行情异动，SOL财库公司 SkyAI（$SKYA）相关地址24小时内转出46.8万枚$SOL，价值约5110万美元，其中21.8万枚$SOL进了多家中心化交易平台。财库公司往交易所转这么多$SOL，抛压信号够明显了吧？这种时候还盲目追高，就是给市场送钱。 再看传统资金的态度，Calamos CEO John Koudounis重申$BTC终极目标100万美元，预计2030年实现，还说$BTC会成为全球投资组合的标准配置。机构喊单归喊单，但人家看的是长线，你短线追涨杀$YGG
Yesterday's rebound was also very strong, now we need to focus on coins with such strong rebounds, indicating there is still liquidity
Currently, there are no significant positive news from the official side, only some AI data can be discussed.
- At the end of July, the game publishing business YGG Play was shut down, about 35 people were laid off, products like LOL Land were stopped, and resources were shifted to AI data. The direction is to use guilds and players to generate game behavior data, manual labeling, and human-in-the-loop, selling it to AI labs. The market did not see a big sell-off at that time, the treasury is about 20.6 million USD, and the official said it can last about four more years.
- Recent operations have been more about contraction. On September 29, it was announced that on October 9, the YGG/ETH liquidity on Abstract would be removed, allowing users to bridge back to Ethereum; Canadian Wealthsimple also delisted YGG on September 29.Event: The global Bitcoin network hash rate has just reached a new all-time high, despite BTC prices trending sharply downward, signaling fierce competition in the mining industry. Detailed Analysis Notes: Miner Margins are squeezed dry: Prices have dropped while mining Difficulty has hit a record high, causing miners' USD-denominated revenues to hit bottom. The Cost of Production for 1 BTC at many mining farms has now exceeded the levelThe single-day surge of 40% on the 6th for $CAP pushed CAP to its historical high, but analysts immediately flagged it: pure capital impulse, no fundamentals, strictly no chasing the high.
Let's characterize this move first. CAP hovered around 0.044 for half a month since September, then suddenly on the 6th it shot up close to the historical high of 0.10, rising 40% in one day. This kind of movement is not a slow bull market with turnover; it's a short-term capital concentrated raid, pulling it up in one go. After the pull-up, profit-taking piled up heavily the same day, with only retail investors chasing the rise to support it.
Looking at the pattern, this script is not new. In August, it was exactly the same: it rose from about 0.039 to 0.077 in a few days, topped with huge volume, then volume quickly shrank, and the price ground back to 0.05, staying flat for almost a month. One impulse up, one slow decline back down; every rally was an opportunity for the previous batch of holders to break even and exit, not the start of a trend.
Characterizing the current pullback: by October 9, the price had dropped to 0.073-0.081, retreating nearly 20% from the historical high, with 24-hour volume shrinking by 80-90% compared to the huge volume in August. What broke was the impulse top, not the bottom. Below, 0.06-0.07 is a dense consolidation zone from before; further down, 0.05 and 0.04 are platforms from August-September.
No right-side conditions have been met. To consider this wave not a distribution, the volume must bring the 0.10 historical high zone back, and volume must return to the level of the impulse day. Until then, every rebound looks more like a window for the previous batch of holders to distribute at highs.🔥 Don't rush to call this rebound a bull market yet.
The capital flow data of the four coins have already started to "go their separate ways."
Big brother $BTC has a 12H inflow of 209 million, but still a 24H outflow of 989 million, and a 30-day outflow of 7.37 billion. There is short-term support, but mid-term funds haven't truly returned.
$ETH is weaker, with a 24H outflow of 1.125 billion, and short-term pressure continues.
$SOL has a 12H inflow of 55.19 million, but still a 30-day outflow of 2.48 billion, so it can only be considered a rebound repair for now.
The most interesting is $ZEC: a 12H inflow of 100 million, and it still maintains net inflow over 30 days.
So this is not a "comprehensive rise" but rather funds are choosing new directions.
Watch BTC for sustainability, ETH for stopping the bleeding, SOL for continuation, and ZEC to see if the anomaly can turn into real price strength.
You can watch the rebound, but don't get caught up in FOMO.
Wait for both funds and price to confirm before deciding the next step.
The above is just my personal market record and does not constitute trading advice.
$BTC $ETH SOL $ZEC 今天ETF单日净流入3.017亿美元，看起来资金回来了；但同一组数据的5日合计只有3.728亿美元，还不到两周前26亿的零头。**同一个指标，两种读法，结论完全相反**——这就是为什么我坚持只看连续序列。 先摆今天的数字。BTC 84,184.9美元（24小时 -1.79%，近一周 +0.06%）；美国现货ETF 5日净流入3.728亿美元，最新单日+3.017亿美元；美元指数102.00（+0.17%）；黄金现货4,146.6美元（+0.45%）；标普500 7,818.93创阶段新高（+0.58%）；恐惧贪婪指数71（前值73）。 单点数据的三个陷阱：**第一，日期错配。**ETF资金统计通常有T+1甚至更长的延迟，最新一条可能对应两三天前的行情，用它解释今天的价格就是刻舟求剑（今天这条正对应10月2日）。**第二，基数效应。**单日流入3亿听着多，但如果前一日流出2.9亿，净变化只有1000万；所以要看5日、10日的累计。**第三，幸存者偏差。**你会记住"单日大额流入后价格大涨"的案例，忘掉同样多次的失败案例。 我自己的做法很简单：**所有资金类指标都记录三条线——单日、5日累$MAGIC on-chain transactions are pitifully few, with just a few wallet addresses speculatingThe US relaxes restrictions on Russian diesel, what impact does it have on $BTC?
The US OFAC allows partial trading of Russian-origin diesel, with the license valid until April 7, 2027.
If energy supply improves and oil prices fall, inflationary pressure may ease, which could boost market expectations for rate cuts, potentially benefiting $BTC.
However, the current impact still depends on actual supply changes and Federal Reserve policy expectations, and cannot be simply equated with a positive effect.
Key focus: oil price trends, rate cut expectations, and whether $BTC can break through resistance with volume.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #霍尔木兹通航降至两月低位，油价跳涨4% BTC retraces to 81000
There are now only two types of people in the group. One says it's a leverage washout, it will rise again after the drop. The other says the trend is weakening, better run quickly. Both sides speak with certainty, the only common point is that their voices are loud.
Is 81000 a floor or a transit station? The K-line knows the answer. The support level looks like a health check report; everyone recognizes the numbers, but not everyone understands the numbers. The difference between leverage washout and trend weakening is roughly: one thinks they are bottom-fishing, the other thinks someone else is catching the falling knife.
AI concept stocks broadly fall
The issue of overvaluation has been discussed for three years. Three years ago it was said to be overvalued, and three years later it's still said to be overvalued, meanwhile it has risen quite a bit. Today, after a drop, some people dig out the "I told you so" from their drafts.
Whether this round is risk release or a buying opportunity depends entirely on which side you stand. Those fully invested call it risk release, those out of the market call it a buying opportunity, both think they are objective. AI stock adjustments never lack explanations, what’s lacking is how long the explanations hold. $BTC The daily chart is still below the Bollinger middle band, with around 83,000 acting as a cap.
Current price is about 82,570. Daily EMA20 is around 83,070, Bollinger middle band about 84,220, Bollinger lower band about 81,700; EMA50 is about 79,480 and still below. The recent week's high is near 87,000 and the low near 80,400. Price is squeezed between the lower band and EMA20, daily chart is weak and oscillating near the lower edge.
View: bearish to sideways. If the daily candle does not close above EMA20 (around 83,000–83,100), the first resistance above is the Bollinger middle band at 84,200; only if the daily closes above 83,100 can we talk about recovery to the middle band. If the daily closes below the Bollinger lower band (around 81,700), the next target is the previous low near 80,400.
The 4-hour EMA20 is still below EMA50, the bearish structure remains, short-term rebounds should not be considered reversals.
Do you think it will hold 81,700 better over the weekend, or test 80,400 first?
This is just a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
#BTC #Bitcoin #MarketAnalysisBitcoin surged to around 83,500 yesterday before forming a long upper shadow candlestick, marking a stage top reversal point. The Bollinger Bands touched the upper band and then faced resistance to fall back. The MACD formed a death cross above the zero line, indicating short-term bullish momentum exhaustion. 83,500 is a resistance inflection point on the smaller time frame; without breaking above 85,000, there is no reason to go long.
A large amount of previously trapped positions are accumulated here. Price surging in the 83,000-83,500 range will trigger concentrated release of stop-loss selling pressure. The rebound is a low-volume rise without new capital inflow; a volume-less surge is unsustainable. The spike is a bull trap. The long-term bearish pattern remains unchanged; the rebound only provides an entry opportunity for shorts. Do not mistake the corrective rebound for a trend reversal; accelerated decline will only enlarge the profit space for short positions.
Continuing last night’s view, Bitcoin is to be shorted on rallies near 83,000 (long-term target below 80,000, first wave target 81,000-81,500), Ethereum is to be shorted on rallies near 2,500 (long-term target below 2,400, first wave target 2,440), continuing the short bombardment #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #跟着OKX打卡2049 The 10-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 5.3%, which is the yield guaranteed by the US government credit and can be considered a risk-free rate. However, across the entire crypto space, whether exchanges or project teams, no one has been able to create a stablecoin deposit product with an APR of 5.3%.
This is somewhat strange. The risk-free rate in traditional finance has exceeded 5.3%, yet the stablecoin yields offered by the crypto sector, which is supposed to be a financial revolution, are only around 3%, sometimes even less. For a moment, it's hard to tell which is traditional finance and which is blockchain finance.
Logically, the stablecoin deposit yields in crypto should exceed 5.3%. After all, the crypto space still faces risks such as exchange and project team run-offs, stablecoin de-pegging, and hacker attacks on projects. The portion of profit exceeding the 5.3% Treasury yield essentially discounts these potential risks in crypto.
But currently, there is no such product in crypto. If someone manages to create one, I believe it would definitely become very popular and might even attract some outside capital into crypto wealth management."Cheap is not a reason to buy"
Don't rush in just because the price has dropped a lot. A low price does not equal value. The asset must have intrinsic logic supporting it to be worth buying.
Cycles will repeat, but the market won't copy past patterns. Each cycle's environment, capital, and sentiment are different; using old scripts for new markets can lead to losses.
$BTC fell then rebounded to around 83000, reaching a high of 83500, but now it's a bit weak again. Will it continue to drop or turn around and rise? No one knows. Because of this uncertainty, you must not act recklessly. Don't take "it has dropped so much" as a bottom-fishing signal; low price is just the surface, logic is the trump card.
It feels like it will consolidate for a while before the outcome is decided. Southbound or northbound, let the market give the answer. Those losing money, don't lose heart; calmly think about the reasons. Those making money, don't get carried away; keep working steadily.
This does not constitute investment advice.
$ETH $SOL #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #霍尔木兹通航降至两月低位，油价跳涨4% "Don't mistake a rebound for a reversal"
$BTC pulled back from 80,000 to 83,000, a 3,000-point rebound that looks strong, but the 4-hour chart just hit the weekly support turned resistance. There are many buyers, but even more trapped sellers; yet it’s still inside a downtrend channel. Want a reversal? First, hold above 83,000, which I think is unlikely. Below 81,500-80,000, bears will most likely try to smash it again. 😮💨
$ETH’s rebound stalled at 2,500; it even broke 2,450 yesterday, dipped to 2,400, and today’s 100-point bounce is already the limit. A sideways shakeout is more realistic than a V-shaped recovery, with 2,450 possibly becoming the lower boundary of the range. 📉
Don’t treat a sharp drop’s rebound as a charge. Control your impulses and wait for confirmation. 🚫#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 500 Yuan Challenge to 100 Million｜Live Trading Record Sharing
Full performance publicly available on homepage
Day 14
Initial capital: 500 Yuan
Current account balance: 3710 Yuan
Account withdrawals: 3500 Yuan
Big Boss 500 Yuan Challenge to 100 Million｜PONS Short Position Review
$PONS this wave of movement perfectly fulfilled the previous prediction.
Opening average price 0.409, 3.5x leverage short position, now the mark price has dropped to 0.3416, unrealized profit directly +57.56%, profit amount 230.71U.
Remember the previous analysis: PONS listing benefits realized, protocol revenue continues to be sluggish, manual buybacks full of uncertainty, on-chain liquidity continuously shrinking.
Good news realized is actually bad news; after a surge, a continuous decline begins, the script of rising 5 and falling 10 plays out as expected.
Currently, the position maintains a margin ratio of 2427.8%, a very thick safety buffer, estimated liquidation price 0.5013, still far from the current price, no need to worry about forced liquidation in the short term.
From the market perspective, the bearish trend still dominates, every small rebound faces selling pressure crushing the price.
But be cautious of sudden short-term capital spikes causing sharp price spikes; once the rebound stabilizes above key resistance, consider reducing positions to protect profits.
Starting with 500 to challenge 100 million, every trade must be supported by logic to withstand volatility, not gambling on luck.
For this trade, continue holding to observe further downside potential, prepare a profit-taking plan; pocketing profits is the real gain.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#跟着OKX打卡2049 Active Trading Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$W's three segmented buy orders synchronize with the price increase. Active buying accounts for 63.4%, with a 15-minute price change of +0.81%; the transaction volume is 134,000 USDT, which is 1.6 times the average 15-minute volume calculated from the previous hour.LOL, $DOGE is called a vapor coin every day in the crypto world, yet the compliant US trading platform actually arranged perpetual contracts for it.
Kalshi's DOGE perpetual contract KXDOGEPERP is already tradable, and the official help center has listed it in the product catalog.
I just want to ask, how do those people who shout every day that Dogecoin is worthless and will eventually go to zero feel when they see this news? 🤣
Of course, I don't think just launching a contract will make DOGE take off immediately. After all, contracts can be long or short, and in extreme market conditions, liquidations will happen.
But think about it carefully, Dogecoin was just an internet joke back then. Who would have thought that more than a decade later, it could legitimately appear in a US regulated derivatives market?
If you said this ten years ago, probably no one would believe it.
Also, I find DOGE particularly interesting. Every time the market is bad, people start holding funerals for it in the comments. But after a while, the project is still there, the community is still there, and related financial products are slowly increasing.
But this time, I want to see how much trading volume Kalshi can actually generate. Launching the product means it has the entry qualification, but whether anyone is willing to trade it depends on the subsequent data.
Anyway, I'm not in a hurry to draw conclusions about DOGE.
This dog has been active for more than a decade; making it completely exit the stage probably isn't that easy. 😂 $ETH Ethereum is stuck at the 2500 critical line, every year it has hovered around 2500, last year was the same position
But last year, after going long, it dropped to around 2100, then I added to my position, and still got stuck, only at the last minute did it rise 130 points to get me out of the trap
Then everyone was short, short, short, shorting out the bull market, I don't know if it will be the same this year
But previous news said the altcoin season has arrived, the bull market has come, now the news says the bear market is not over, is this a bear market rally in the big cycle? What is going on
The night before last, it bounced back from 2400 to now 2488, fluctuating, the 2500 round number resistance, the bulls just can't reclaim it, if they can't reclaim it, it's a weak rebound
Support: 2469/2403-2408/2380/2360
Starting point resistance: 2500/2535-2540/2569
Bollinger middle band/2610 liquidation zone/2764 trend reversal
My view: daily trend is bearish, reclaiming 2500 targets 2569-2600, breaking 2400 targets 2360-2380, stuck in the middle means consolidation, no direction Latest Liquidation Data Chart
$BTC at 82,508 USD
Dense long liquidation point below: 76,165 USD
Potential liquidation scale at this position: approximately 204.8 million USD
$ETH reference price: 2,484 USD
Dense long liquidation point below: 2,323 USD
Potential liquidation scale at this position: approximately 75.6 million USD
It is obvious that there are many more long liquidation points below than short ones
The probability of further decline is relatively high; after two consecutive days of decline, there has been a slight rebound
But a rebound does not mean a reversal
It may be due to short sellers taking profits and closing short positions, causing the price to rebound
Above, BTC has a large number of trapped positions around 85,500 and ETH around 2,600
Selling pressure is heavy, making it difficult to push the price directly upward; moreover, there are still many liquidation points below, so the situation remains heavy
Before the trend becomes clear, it is better to remain cautious and observe$BCH Damn it! The BCH trend is really disgusting, oscillating around 277 about eight hundred times, retail investors' chips are almost completely washed out. Don't rush, let the bullets fly for a while. There are obviously large orders supporting the bottom in the order book; the 278 position is a trap set by the big players with real money, if it falls below, it immediately pulls back, a typical shakeout to absorb chips. No matter how others shout short outside, I'm going long this round. Directly lay a position at 277.7, stop loss at 268, target first looks at the 300 round number. Follow or not, up to you, profit and loss at your own risk.🎯
If you want to copy the trade, click the market card below, don't regret it when it goes up later.
👇👇👇In the past 24 hours, the burn amount was zero. Not "very little," but zero. The Shibburn tracker shows that not a single SHIB was sent to the burn address, and the burn rate plummeted from a skyrocketing 182,140% the previous day directly down to -100%. The day before, 91.12 million tokens were burned; today, not a single one.
This is not a technical glitch. The burn amount depends on voluntary transfers by the community and Shibarium's transaction load, with no fixed schedule. But when it hits zero, the signal it sends is clearer than any burn data: no on-chain transactions, no community activity, and naturally, the burn mechanism stalls.
Price movements confirm this. SHIB is currently priced at $0.00000536, down 0.89% in 24 hours, having fallen for four consecutive days from the October 5 high of $0.000006, with an intraday low of $0.000005099. The Federal Reserve minutes show most officials expect another rate hike before year-end, crypto markets saw $969 million liquidated in a single day, and risk assets are collectively under pressure. SHIB broke below its 50-day moving average and only barely recovered after briefly dipping below the 200-day moving average.
Burning 707.5 million tokens over 30 days sounds like a lot, but divided by the circulating supply of 585 trillion, it accounts for only 0.000121%. At this rate, it would take about 690 years to burn 1% of the current supply.
What really needs attention is Shibarium.
DEX trading volume has plummeted 97.46% over the past week, with an absolute value of just $1.81. Almost zero. TVL barely holds at $102,000, with WoofSwap alone accounting for $86,000.
Earlier data shows active accounts in October once dropped to 243, with 2,300 transactions in a single day.
Then, there is the burn.
On October 2, a community member directly asked Kaal Dhairya on X: who exactly is covering Shibarium’s maintenance, security, and development costs? The background is another Ethereum L2—Blast—just announced closure due to economic unsustainability, asking users to withdraw assets by October 26.
Dhairya’s answer after months of silence was just two words: "Yours truly."
I myself.
This L2 is funded by one person.
Shibariumscan’s reindexing progress is currently about 54%, with on-chain blocks indexed just over halfway. The team says restructuring issues have been resolved, and DRPC migration is ongoing. Technically it’s operational, but operation and actual usage are two different things.
Burning is holding up a chain. There are no on-chain transactions. Burning is zero. Price has fallen for four consecutive days.
The community still holds tokens, but no new chips are coming to the table.
$SHIB 160,000 people liquidated for $970 million! But in the eyes of the whales, this is just another "discount sale"
Good morning, brothers, here’s a suffocating set of data: In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $970 million, with $774 million in long positions liquidated, and 163,596 people were liquidated. The largest single liquidation was on Hyperliquid, where a $19.98 million $ETH long position instantly went to zero.
Today, no sadness, let’s talk about something that balances the heart.
At the same time, another story is being told:
BlackRock net bought $1.57 billion $BTC in the past month, with a total holding of 801,769 coins. The most recent purchase of $195.6 million happened after BTC rebounded above 84,000.
Strategy holds 848,000 coins at an average price of 75,441; Saylor just tweeted: "More orange than ever."
Glassnode confirms: The group of whales who had been continuously depositing to exchanges to dump for the past three months have stopped their actions.
Santiment data: Wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC have increased their holdings by 86,702 coins in the past three weeks, reaching the highest total holdings since April 23.
Do you understand?
Retail investors are repeatedly harvested, while institutions and whales are quietly picking up chips. 160,000 people got liquidated, but BlackRock is still buying.
So it’s not about "will it fall again," but rather—do you think those institutions buying above 84,000 are taking the bag for you?
$ZEC 200 million in 12 hours, 7.3 billion out in 30 days
The capital flow of $BTC shows opposite trends in the short term and long term.
Where does this money come from:
A net inflow of $209 million in 12 hours indicates short-term buyers are stepping in.
But a net outflow of 7.37 billion over 30 days means large funds are still moving out.
How is this calculated:
The two figures are not contradictory; they represent two different groups.
Short-term money comes in and goes out quickly, unable to sustain a trend.
Long-term holders should really watch for the 30-day line to turn positive.
Until that day comes, any rebound is just a rebound.
The bottom of $BTC is something to be waited for.
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#美CFTC推进加密市场规则，SEC拟调整托管框架 #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $BTC $NEAR currently lacks directional views; what is missing are verifiable conditions.
Scenario one: breaking through 4.98 and holding indicates the continuation of a bullish structure. Scenario two: falling below 4.495 invalidates the short-term logic.
Current price is 4.912, about 8.49% above the 1-hour support at 4.495, and about 1.38% below the resistance at 4.98. The 1-hour and 4-hour trends are bullish, with RSI values of 60 and 38 respectively. Volume is 0.60 times; for now, it only provides clues and does not conclude price direction.
With these two scenarios laid out, do you think the upper confirmation or the lower invalidation will trigger first?
The above is a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bull.Ethereum liquidations hit $356 million, this round's worst is not Bitcoin
In the past day, Ethereum liquidations reached $356 million, surpassing Bitcoin's $298 million. The total market liquidations are nearly $1.19 billion, with long positions accounting for over $1 billion, leverage long positions killing each other.
Leverage is piled too high; once the price drops, it triggers forced liquidations, and the forced selling further pushes the price down, causing a chain reaction of liquidations that won't stop. The harshest single liquidation was nearly $20 million worth of Ethereum positions liquidated at once.
Combined with macro and geopolitical pressures, Ethereum once dropped to around 2410. Being right on direction doesn't necessarily mean profit; with high leverage, you might not even get to see a rebound. $ETH $BTC#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
The minutes are overall still hawkish: most officials believe another rate hike within the year is still possible, but there is no consensus on the exact timing. The market's bet on an immediate rate hike in October has clearly cooled down.
BTC is currently around 82.5K.
In the short term, I first look at 82K:
If it holds, the rebound target is 84K—85K;
If it breaks, the next level to watch is 80K—81K.
Macro pressure remains now; if I want to go long, I will wait for BTC to reclaim 84K first. When evaluating public chain projects, you can't just look at what the whitepaper says.
Take ACO as an example. The whitepaper's planned direction includes not only the underlying public chain but also modules like DEX, DApp, social content, cross-chain, and community governance.
For these modules to form a complete ecosystem, it involves not only technical development but also product experience, user adoption, and synergy among applications.
Therefore, when researching such projects, you can separate a few questions:
1. How is the development progress of the underlying infrastructure?
2. Are the planned applications actually implemented?
3. Are there real users and genuine usage demands?
4. Is the subsequent roadmap advancing according to the public plan?
The whitepaper can help us understand the project's design concept, but ultimately it needs to be verified by actual progress.
The above content is for project research communication only and does not constitute investment advice. 🔥 With just one sentence from Musk, the market value of the three major carriers took a "plunge"
📉 AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile collectively dropped more than 7%.
The market panic is not because there is another competitor, but because the rules of the game might be rewritten.
🤔 Why the fear?
The core assets of traditional carriers are towers, base stations, fiber optics, and spectrum. They build walls with heavy assets and collect rent based on coverage. But if Starlink turns satellites into "base stations in the sky," phones can connect directly to the stars, enabling calls and internet access in remote areas, at sea, and in deserts. The carriers' walls might be bypassed.
🚀 Musk's plan
No need to lay fiber or build towers; use satellites to form a global mobile network. Users don't have to change phones or search for signals. For carriers, this is a risk of being downgraded from "pipeline providers" to "optional services."
🌍 But it's not that simple
Where does the spectrum come from? Is the capacity sufficient? How to handle high density in cities? Will regulators approve? Terminal power consumption, latency, and pricing are all hurdles. Satellites cannot replace ground networks overnight.
💥 The real impact
The capital market dropped first because the valuation logic changed: carriers are no longer just stable cash flow providers but could be disrupted by technological routes. Musk hasn't officially made a move yet, but panic has already arrived.📡#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 $BTC should hold the 80,000 level; I feel the worst time is almost over.
1. The day before yesterday, the US transferred 17,000 $BTC into exchanges, and everyone suspected it was going to dump, as this represents selling pressure worth $1.5 billion. So that day, over 600 million in funds were scared off within an hour.
But now the panic has been digested. Whether it was selling or portfolio adjustment, it no longer greatly affects retail sentiment, especially since BTC's daily trading volume is 25 billion.
2. Previously, concerns about the US targeting Iran before the midterm elections were also dispelled by Trump's statements. Yesterday I also said: there is no benefit in targeting Iran before the midterms.
Because for this midterm election, Trump's goal is to rally votes for his faction. If he targets Iran, oil prices would rise further in the short term, which is unfavorable for votes.
But the midterm election ends soon, and the long-term effects on the US dollar's hegemony won't manifest in time, so Trump has no incentive to act.
3. Looking at ETF and on-chain dynamics these past two days, we can see many profit-taking positions. The exit of these less committed profit-takers is actually beneficial for the next market phase.
Two negative factors have passed, and the exit of profit-taking positions has also made the chip structure healthier. I remain quite optimistic about the market outlook.TSMC's revenue hits a new high, but the market's real concern is whether the growth can be sustained.
AI demand is driving expansion in advanced processes and advanced packaging, but revenue growth does not necessarily mean profit margins improve simultaneously.
The October 15 earnings report will focus on three key indicators: demand for advanced processes, gross margin guidance, and future capital expenditures.
If AI orders are strong, and both profit margins and guidance exceed expectations, it indicates that the industry chain growth still has fundamental support.
Conversely, if revenue hits a new high but capital expenditures increase significantly and profit margins are under pressure, the market should be cautious about prematurely overestimating growth expectations.
#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Fast, sometimes not fast enough
$BTC Don't judge it by comparing the speed of public blockchains.
The supply cap is 21 million coins, this rule is clear, but the rule itself doesn't create new buyers every day.
I think the real competition it faces is why capital would choose it over deposits, bonds, or other assets.
The more attractive the interest yield, the more reasons are needed to hold a non-interest-bearing asset. Scarcity provides the foundation, demand determines how much the market is willing to pay, and these two things should not be mixed.
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
$ETH Scaling solves congestion but also brings a new challenge.
Rollups bundle transactions and submit them to Ethereum, allowing more operations to be done on layer two.
But users benefiting from lower costs and the base layer earning more do not happen simultaneously.
My view is that scaling first expands the market, then strives to earn revenue from the larger market. Judging failure only by fee reduction is too early, and judging ETH's benefit only by layer two prosperity omits a key step.
$SOL Low fees can attract users, but cheapness is also easily imitated by competitors.
Its base fee is 5000 lamports per signature, plus a priority fee.
So I care more about the cost for users to leave: assets, transaction depth, commonly used applications—whether they make people too lazy to switch places.
If another chain is just a bit cheaper, users will all move away, making growth fragile. Retaining people makes it easier to turn temporary hype into a long-term business.💥 1-Hour Liquidation Storm: Approximately $489 million to $600 million liquidated across the entire market, marking the highest single-hour total in nearly a month. Leveraged long positions were the hardest hit, accounting for about 95%. $BTC liquidations during the same period were approximately $43.5 million to $76.74 million.
📉 Triggers for the Sell-Off:
· Key Level Breach: BTC fell below $81,000, triggering cascades of forced liquidations and stop-loss orders.
· Macro Pressure: The September FOMC minutes were hawkish, with potential rate hikes still possible this year; U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, putting pressure on risk assets.
· On-Chain Disturbance: Approximately $1.01 billion in BTC was moved from wallets linked to the U.S. government, intensifying concerns over selling pressure.
🧨 Crowded longs combined with negative factors caused a liquidation cascade. Short-term focus is on whether $81,000 can be reclaimed and if macro sentiment can ease.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 I observe that BTC is undergoing high-level oscillation and correction on the 4-hour chart. After previously surging to 87374, it has pulled back, with the current price at 82531 below the Bollinger middle band (82929), indicating a weak trend. Although the MACD fast and slow lines are below the zero axis, the red energy bar (120.4) shows weakening bearish momentum, suggesting a potential golden cross forming. There is buying support near 81000 (Bollinger lower band). My strategy is to closely watch if the price can retake the middle band; if it breaks out with volume, I will go long accordingly; if it falls below the 80,000 mark, I will strictly stop loss. Currently, volume has clearly shrunk, so I am maintaining a light position and waiting for a clear direction.Look at the chart, 15-minute timeframe.
The "central oscillation" we simulated last night is unfolding. The price fell back from 83,014, hitting a low of 82,277.2, then rebounded to 82,592. From the current structure:
1. Small timeframe: The 15-minute MACD green bars have drastically shortened, and the fast and slow lines are about to form a golden cross below the zero line. Short-term bearish momentum is fading, showing signs of a bottom fractal. The price is building a new minor central zone.
2. Large timeframe: The downward stroke on the 3-hour chart paused after reaching the major central zone (80,227-80,552). The large timeframe support remains valid, but whether the upward stroke is confirmed still needs observation.
3. Key levels: Resistance above at 83,014, support below at 82,277.
The current structure is in a phase of "large timeframe support, small timeframe oscillation." The direction is unclear; wait for the structure to develop on its own.
Do you understand this double bottom structure? 📉$LAYER $SOL Damn it! This SOL market is really dog-eat-dog, quiet outside, but inside the market is crashing faster than anyone else 😂 The 109.37 level has been sideways for a long time, the manipulators are clearly shaking out the market, and each candlestick looks weaker than the last.
Don't fomo, this wave is purely a hard cash dump, the scythe is already at the neck. The resistance at 110.5 is tight, and if 108.2 breaks, it will accelerate. A rebound to the 109.8-110.2 range is a shorting opportunity, stop loss at 111.5, target first at 106.5.
This wave won't lose, playing with manipulators is all about patience. Those wanting to get in should check the token market card below, don't chase highs, wait for a rebound before acting. What do you think? 🤔
The above is just personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, please make decisions cautiously, profits and losses are your own responsibility.
👇👇👇Got a bit timid, brothers, I guessed this $LIT would drop, but didn't expect it to fall this much
I shorted at 3684, it dropped to just above 3520, another big loss this round
Why do I always choose to hold on stubbornly when I guess the wrong direction, but when I'm right, I can't hold and want to run?
But to be fair, you should still avoid these altcoins, just make what you can, the volatility is too high, with sudden sharp drops
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
$BTC $ETH ETH rose 71% in Q3, but the proportion of profitable supply hasn't entered the "warning zone" yet — this is the most counterintuitive aspect of this wave.
It's not just a simple pump-and-dump: ETF inflows, treasury companies buying up, and staking locking up circulating supply have tightened the float, pushing prices up, yet the on-chain "floating profit positions" haven't piled up to historical peak levels.
The meaning is simple:
• It's not that no one is profiting; it's that the "majority of people who have made huge profits and are ready to sell" stage hasn't arrived yet;
• It's not that there's no risk; the overheating signals lag price movements;
• Chasing highs risks being shaken out, waiting for a pullback risks missing out — this is the most frustrating part right now.
My personal view: this combination looks like the "mid-term market hasn't finished yet," but it's not a signal to blindly rush in. The truly dangerous moment is usually when "any buy makes a profit and profitable supply soars to extremes," and that moment hasn't come yet.
Next, I'll focus on two things:
1) Whether the proportion of profitable supply has surged into the historical warning zone;
2) Whether ETF/on-chain outflows have started to reverse.
Not entering the warning zone ≠ it will keep rising, ≠ you can go all in.
It just means: this round of ETH hasn't gone crazy yet. btc just barely stood above 82500 after closing at 8 AM this morning.
There are a few conclusions to discuss, also preparing us for how to view the market next.
First, standing above 82500, the overall structure is barely holding, and the daily level bullish outlook remains unchanged.
Second, btc being able to stand above 82500 indicates a good consensus sentiment for chasing rebounds in the market. Everyone is willing to pay 10% more to buy, rather than worry about missing the entire bull market by paying 10% more.
Third, I don't really believe btc will undergo a further large-scale correction in the near future.
My personal practical idea is that if it drops to 79000, that would be the limit for this round. Also, I am a short-term trader, and my judgment criteria are only one: whether the 4-hour level shows a new bullish direction, and whether the 1-hour level shows obvious bullish signs.
Currently, btc on both 4-hour and 1-hour levels does not meet my long position requirements, so I continue to hold my short positions.
When btc meets the requirements, I will change my approach.