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🔥What I most want to remind myself today is not whether BTC will rise or fall, but: **Don't mistake holding a position for persistence.**
Currently BTC is at 84600, ETH at 2678, with the market volume shrinking significantly, and almost no effective movement on the 15-minute chart.
💰BTC capital inflow is cooling down, and ETH also shows no obvious increase in funds.
In this environment, the price holding steady doesn't mean the bulls are strong; it could just be that the sellers haven't exerted force yet.
📈Upwards, low volume makes it easy to spike and then fall back;
📉Downwards, a thin order book can suddenly accelerate the drop.
SOL continues to act as an "amplifier," bouncing when the market is good and dropping more fiercely when the market is bad.
So I increasingly feel that truly mature trading doesn't necessarily mean holding a position waiting for the outcome.
🛡️Wait when you should wait;
🎯Cut losses when you should cut losses;
🧘When there’s no opportunity, being out of the market is also a choice.
May we all hold less stubbornness and execute more.
Are the positions you hold planned, or have you started holding on just by faith? #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 A tower that surged 9.45% within 24 hours, its facade still seems to be refreshing the skyline, but my laser rangefinder concludes: the main structure has already reached the 4-hour Bollinger upper band, with only 0.03% clearance left. For a building like this, I won’t add any more floors.
When reviewing plans, I never look at renderings, only at reinforcement ratios. $PEPE’s current chart looks very good—piling up a 9.45% increase in one day is equivalent to illegally adding floors on the existing foundation. But RSI1H has already hit 67.19, surpassing the stress warning red line at 64. In my field, this means the design load has been breached, and the rebar is starting to creak. RSI1D at 60.71 is not yet unstable, but the daily load-bearing walls are already showing signs of diagonal cracks; settlement monitoring points need to be increased.
Looking at clearance again: the price is only 0.18% away from the 1-hour Bollinger upper band, and just 0.03% from the 4-hour upper band—meaning the curtain wall glass has already hit the limiter. Pushing further up won’t break through upwards; it will cause the whole structure to topple. So I won’t take on this high chase; instead, I’ll set up a temporary brace and wait for others’ emotional premiums to serve as my lifting point.
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.000053154 (current price +0.40%)
Take Profit 1: 0.000052547 (-0.74%)
Take Profit 2: 0.000052617 (-0.61%)
Stop Loss: 0.000053527 (+1.11%)
The position is deliberately set 0.40% above the current price, letting the last wave of buyers lift the crane for me. The first target is near the 1-hour Bollinger lower band, -0.74%, the shallowest ground beam, to secure profits early; the second target retreats to the 4-hour lower band, -0.61%. If the decline is smooth, it will settle there for another settlement observation. The stop loss is set 1.11% above the current price; if the price effectively stands above the 1-hour upper band, it means the structural system has changed, my original stress model is void, and I’ll clear the position immediately without sentiment for the plans.
It’s important to emphasize this is just a short-term structural quick fix, not the main project. True long-term value is always written in the foundation, not projected in the facade’s light show. $PEPE’s building currently has no new load-bearing components, only emotions pouring concrete upwards.
Plans can be beautifully drawn, but settlement curves never lie—this floor, tonight, I will only dismantle, not build.Dogecoin is consolidating again, being playful.
Talking about $DOGE, first look at where it stands.
At $0.093, placed within the 52-week range of 0.2701—0.0679, it’s close to the lower boundary. It has fallen 65% from the high point and only risen 37% from the low point. YTD down 20.57%, down 64.19% over the year. The selling pressure over the year has mostly been released; those who wanted to sell have done so early, and those remaining don’t check the market daily.
Position determines the odds. Downwards, the previous low of 0.0679 is right below; before breaking it, the downside space is countable; upwards, returning to the midpoint around 0.17 is nearly double, and reaching the high point is almost triple. The odds are set, it just depends on whether the funds are willing to come back.
What drives the inflow? Not on-chain data, but attention and narrative: Musk’s calls, payment scenario implementation, and market risk appetite recovery. These have all been quiet this year, with the price near the bottom, exactly the sign of cooling heat. But once they turn back, the elasticity of bottom chips is greatest.
For holders, patience is tested here; for onlookers, the low-volume pullback above the low point is the time when odds improve again. Direction can wait, position cannot. $DOGE ZEC at $1325, do you dare to chase?
ETF redeemed $93.56 million in one week, contract open interest barely increased in a day, yet the price was forcibly pulled from 1271 back to 1325—just now, the 4-hour RSI is only 39, still in the bearish zone. Is this wave the last dip after the shakeout, or a fake rebound before a run for the exit?
Let's look at the surface first: it rebounded, but the rebound is very weak.
ZEC dropped from 1698 on September 26 to 1271 on October 3, losing 25%. Today it climbed back from 1271 to 1325, seemingly stabilizing. The 24-hour low was 1284, high 1341, volume not small, but—contract open interest is 640 million, barely moved in a day, 8-hour funding rate +0.01%, longs are paying, but no new shorts are being squeezed out.
Price up, positions not up, this is a rebound, not a trend.
First thing: the narrative hasn't broken, but the money is running.
Grayscale's Zcash spot ETF had a net redemption of $93.56 million last week. This product, launched in August, was an important incremental driver for the rise from a few hundred dollars to 1700.
Now? The honeymoon is over.
You might say: "The fundamentals haven't changed, the shielded pool accounts for 29%, market cap 22.7 billion still in the top ten, NU7 is still progressing."
Yes, fundamentals haven't changed. But short-term coin price is driven by money, not stories.
THORChain's ZEC pool went live on October 2, sounds like good news? But native swaps are not fully open yet, pool depth is shallow. This is a channel, not a buy order. Don't mistake the pipeline for water.
Second thing: BTC is fine, but it didn't help.
BTC is between 84900-85000, still in the upper half of the 83000-87200 box. After employment data, rate hike expectations fell, but 10-year US Treasury yields rebounded, risk appetite hasn't reopened.
Next hard data: inflation on October 14.
ZEC's current pullback isn't led by BTC—it's because it rose too much on its own, profit-taking is happening. But if BTC effectively breaks below 83100, the relative strength of privacy coins will also be suppressed. Don't think you're independent; you just haven't had your turn yet.
Third thing: technicals tell you a harsh truth.
Daily: RSI back to 50, completely cooled from overbought. Price still above the 50-day moving average (around 1080), 50-day above 200-day—the bullish structure is intact.
4-hour: the downtrend from 1698 hasn't been broken. Today's rebound stopped near 1340, 4-hour RSI about 39, still a pullback within the bearish zone.
Key levels:
Near-term resistance: 1332-1341 (pivot upper edge + today's high), 1370, then 1449
Near-term support: 1284-1281, 1271 (this wave's low), 1244
Only if 1244 breaks do we look at 1170/1130
1325 is stuck just above the pivot, neither up nor down, the most uncomfortable position.
Daily close above 1370 means the pullback is over, target 1449.
Close below 1271 means repair failed, next support 1244.
Bull vs bear, judge for yourself:
On one side:
Weekly bulls intact, 50-day above 200-day
Shielded pool 29%, fundamentals intact
NU7 accelerating block production + community security funding
Stronger than BTC for a month
On the other side:
ETF redeemed $93.56 million in a week, incremental funds withdrawing
Contract open interest not increasing, no new short squeeze
4-hour still in downtrend, RSI 39
Heavy trapped positions above 1370
Trading strategy
1. Do not chase longs at 1325.
This is the rebound midpoint, above is 1341/1370. Wait for 4-hour close to hold above 1370 with volume, then look at 1449, stop loss below 1320. Chasing 1325 is giving the market makers your stop loss.
2. Buy on dips.
Prefer to wait for 1284-1271 to show a long lower shadow indicating a stop, then scale in with stop loss below 1255. First target 1340, if held then look at 1370. This has a much better risk-reward than chasing 1325.
3. Short only on resistance in the short term.
If rebound to 1366-1370 shows volume upper shadow and 4-hour can't close above, short lightly with stop loss above 1390, target 1284/1271. Don't guess the top at 1325, daily RSI is already neutral.
4. Invalid conditions.
Daily close below 1271 and failure to recover means exit longs. If ETF continues large redemptions, breakout above 1370 loses weight. If THORChain native swaps open with volume, treat as a bonus, not a reason to chase highs.
You chase at 1700, fear at 1300, itch to act at 1325—you are not trading, you are paying tuition to the market makers.
Single trade risk control within 1% of account. Daily volatility often exceeds $100, don't use positions you can't handle.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC The MVRV number should be familiar to veteran players.
Simply put, it shows whether holders overall are making a profit or a loss.
glassnode just released data showing that in this round, the MVRV of BTC long-term holders has never fallen below 1 from start to finish.
To translate: they've been making money all along, never losing.
It wasn't like this before.
In every bear market since 2015, this indicator would drop below 1, meaning long-term holders were collectively stuck.
Not this time.
At the bottom, it stopped falling above 1, and now it’s starting to rise again.
I think this is quite critical.
It’s not that the price must rise, but the chip structure has changed.
Previously, at bear market bottoms, veteran players were worn down to cut losses and exit, and only after chips changed hands would the bottom be seen.
This time, they didn’t lose at all, so why would they sell?
With fewer sellers, the bottom naturally rises.
But conversely, this cycle might not give you the comfortable bottom-fishing opportunities like before.
So here’s the question—if long-term holders never lose, who ends up losing?
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 #SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 $BTC Don't rush to say "Bitcoin is virtual, just a string of numbers." First, take a look at your own life. Central bank credit, Sesame Credit Score, WeChat Pay Score? Institutions that haven't signed contracts give you scores. Mobile banking balance? A string of numbers on someone else's server. Housing fund, pension? Account records in the system; when and how to withdraw is decided by others. Mortgage? The legal ledger behind the house. Airline miles, credit card points? The platform can shrink th🔥The biggest feature of BTC and ETH right now is not the price rise or fall, but the lack of volume.
BTC 84600, ETH 2678, the 15-minute chart is almost like a sheet of paper.
📊The order book is very thin on both buy and sell sides; even a small amount of capital can push the price, making it look like there is movement, but it may not be sustainable.
BTC's recent capital inflow has clearly cooled down, and ETH is even more interesting—capital hasn't increased significantly, yet the price is still holding.
🧩This kind of market easily creates illusions.
A bullish candle appears, and you think a breakout is coming;
A bearish candle appears, and you think a crash has started.
But without volume to support it, many moves might just be short-term noise.
🚀SOL still maintains high elasticity; when the market moves, it follows, and when the market goes down, it usually falls faster.
So now I prefer to trade less rather than force opening positions just to "have something to do."
🛡️Trading doesn't have to make money every day; being able to hold back when there is no opportunity is also a skill.
Are you still holding positions now? #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 $BTC $ETH This market is really a bit exciting; it feels like Ethereum might soon experience a significant wave of volatility. Compared to continuing to push upward, I currently lean more towards a clear pullback first.
Since surging to $2800, ETH has repeatedly tested the $2750 area but has never effectively held and broken through. Does this trend somewhat resemble the post-surge market in August?
The current market is actually quite simple: either a volume breakout with a big bullish candle opening the upward space; or a failed breakout followed by a rapid plunge.
ETH is currently around $2700, and given the current relatively weak market environment, I personally think the probability of a downward pullback is higher. The scenario where it strongly breaks through and rushes to $3000, I currently only give about a 10% expectation.
Of course, the market never follows the script. If it really completes a breakout here, it means bulls might accelerate directly, and $3000 may not be out of reach.
So I have already started trying to position short. Friends who think my judgment is wrong can definitely go long with their own positions, and after the market moves, we can discuss based on actual holdings.
It's okay if you don't have real positions; differing views are normal, and the market ultimately depends on price movement.
#BTC #ETH #cryptocurrency #OctoberInterestRateHikeExpectationsFall #PCE #USTreasuryWeekend project inspiration for traders: build your own backtesting engine — basically a TradingView replay version, but you can query price data and ask questions in a live environment. $BTC
If you're struggling to develop a profitable trading strategy, this project is worth the effort. It will force you to understand market mechanics at a finer granularity and test your hypotheses with real historical data instead of intuition or selective memory. $ETH
Backtesting separates what truly works from what just "feels right." Most retail traders skip this step and often pay the price later. $SOL Just by glancing at those dense integer-level orders on the order book, it should be clear that the main force is drawing lines to feed fish. They can't push it down from above, nor let it fall through below; this kind of low-volume oscillation is meant to squeeze out short-term leverage fees, not to start a market rally. Don't mistake multi-timeframe oversold conditions as a bottom-fishing opportunity; entering now is just filling the pits for liquidity that hasn't fully withdrawn yet. The system still shows it's hanging on; in this low-liquidity environment, patience is more effective than any technical indicator.
$BTC $ETH Never short BTC, it's very foolish; a spike upwards can explode at any moment. It won't go back to 60,000; the chips bought at the 60,000 bottom must be held. But the 8.5 level hasn't finished adjusting yet, most likely it will fluctuate for a while longer, or even move down a bit. So if you missed the opportunity, this is actually a chance to get in.
BTC is consolidating, and some small-cap altcoins might take this chance to rise in the next couple of days. Those who have done research can consider it; those who haven't, absolutely avoid it—it's just a race to see who can run faster.
Storage is still bullish in the long term, but not as crazy as in the first half of the year. The shortage hasn't been resolved, so the logic won't disappear. Hold the chips bought at the bottom, and add more in batches if there's a pullback.
$BTC
$SKHYNIX
#BTC财库优先股融资升温 #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ $ETH rebounded from $2691 to $2750 in one day. What you really need to be cautious about is not the price increase, but mistaking the speed of the short-term rebound as a basis for sustained future growth.$BTC $ETH's rebound yesterday
Today has basically engulfed yesterday's big bullish candle
The downtrend is officially unfolding
The space for further rebounds is very limited
Support around 2700 is the limit; it's hard to go higher
As mentioned yesterday, altcoins have already weakened in advance
Now BTC and ETH are just catching up with this rhythm
Manage your positions well
If you still want to catch the last bit of the tail, at most 5% position
Even if stuck, you still have 95% cash; you can trade rebounds during the big dips later
Gradually buy back in the real bottom area
You can miss the tail money, but don't lose your position $ZEC #The Fed and ECB will release September meeting minutes #BTC spot ETF inflows return, ETH funds continue outflow #Besenet: Rising US Treasury yields align with global trends
#DailyOrbit Crypto analyst Darkfost posted that over the past decade, Bitcoin's price volatility around the "Power Law" trend line has been gradually decreasing, with market cycle fluctuations converging. The oscillation indicator peak has dropped from +169 in 2018 to +102 in 2025, and its daily change standard deviation has also decreased from 4.81 to 2.47, a decline of about 49%. Darkfost added that as of the model's oscillation indicator at +34.5, Bitcoin's price is approximately $84,700. According to the model parameters calculated on that day, an oscillation indicator of +100 corresponds to a Bitcoin price of about $157,800, roughly 86% higher than the current price. He also pointed out that $157,800 is not a fixed target price but a reference level calculated based on the current regression parameters; if the Power Law trend line continues to rise in the future, this reference price will also increase accordingly. #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC Efficiency and Boundaries of Single Authorization Covering an Entire Session
If every model call generates a proof and settles on-chain, privacy might be enhanced, but the user experience would suffer from delays and high costs. zkAPI adopts session-based authorization: users first prove sufficient balance, then the system issues a short-term key with a spending limit; after the session ends, the service submits a signed usage voucher and deducts the actual fees from the private balance. One authorization covers multiple calls, reducing repeated proofs and interactions.
This structure separates two rhythms. The application layer requires millisecond to second-level responses, while Ethereum settlement is better suited for confirming balance ownership, exit rights, and final accounting. The $ETH ecosystem's long-term scalability cannot demand all operations to squeeze into the same synchronous path; the key is that off-chain efficiency must not compromise on-chain rights. Reserving a spending limit provides payment assurance for the service, while actual settlement avoids users permanently paying for unused quotas.
The boundary lies in the usage voucher being unforgeable, the key limit truly enforced, and refunds after expiration clearly defined. If the service both records usage and can unilaterally modify bills, the so-called session settlement is just a centralized prepaid card. Allowing the client, provider, and treasury to each retain verifiable evidence is what makes this design a step beyond traditional account balances.Micron's revenue guidance for the next quarter is $61.5 billion, with a fluctuation of $1.5 billion up or down, higher than this quarter's revenue of about $54.2 billion. However, the GAAP gross margin guidance is about 85.95%, slightly lower than this quarter's 86.8%.
I think looking at these two lines together is more interesting than just shouting "storage demand exploded." The company expects revenue to continue growing but did not provide guidance for a simultaneous increase in gross margin. At least the management's own forecast does not paint all indicators as a continuously upward trend.
We can't directly conclude that the boom has peaked here. Product mix, costs, and production ramp-up pace can all affect gross margin, and the specific contributions require more disclosure. However, it reminds us that selling more and earning more per dollar of revenue should not be discussed interchangeably.
Micron's performance is indeed strong, and those bullish have plenty of reasons to be excited. My concern is that the market may have become accustomed to consecutive large beats and gradually treats exceptionally good quarters as the minimum expectation. By then, even if the company continues to grow, it may not satisfy the stock price.
For the next earnings report, I will compare it with this guidance to see if revenue growth can be realized while paying attention to the reasons behind changes in gross margin. Demand strength needs to be tracked, and the market's preemptive expectations must be assessed. Don't automatically translate the company's upward guidance into a buy with no volatility afterward.
#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 🔷 $AIXBT : AI market analytics agent
• “Bloomberg of Crypto” on the Virtuals platform
• 420k followers on X in 3 months
• Autonomous generation of market insights
• Tracking narratives and trends
• Early alpha detection
• Social media sentiment analysis
• Top AI agent in the Virtuals ecosystem
🧠 The first AI analyst, not a chat-bot. 420k followers = product-market fit. The market is flooded with LLM wrappers
⚠️ Risks: GAME/VIRTUAL competition, hallucinations
❓ Real alpha or noise?👇Today is the 43rd day of shorting ZEC, with 47 days left in the three-month plan. The cs coin has risen again; can we still short it??? $ZEC 1334 Current price 1334, supported by privacy narrative, rebound strength stronger than mainstream coins. RSI6=64.95 close to overbought, MACD red bars expanding, short-term bulls dominate. Resistance: 1345‑1360, previous high 1412; Support: 1300, strong support 1283. BTC: ETF funds are flowing back to support the market, but short-term indicators are oWhat’s really worth watching this time isn’t $BTC touching 85K again, but whether it can turn 85.1K into support. Kraken quotes around 85.09K, 24-hour range about 84.71K–85.19K, price is already close to the upper edge; if it breaks above without a close confirmation, it might still just be a quick sweep within the range.
My key decision point is simple: if volume-backed stabilization above 85.1K occurs and it holds on a pullback, I will raise my short-term outlook and watch 85.8K; if it falls back below 84.7K, it will be considered a failed breakout, and I will withdraw my attack plan, avoiding shorting in the middle of the range or chasing rebounds.
There are many calls for small coins and high leverage in the window, but lacking verifiable catalysts, I don’t currently consider them opportunities. Will you wait for a close confirmation at 85.1K, or watch first if 84.7K breaks? Sharing information only, not investment advice.Brothers, good afternoon, I am Bai Qing, and my goal is to become a "prodigy" in the crypto circle step by step!
Today is the 39th day of the 500U principal compound interest challenge, and the total assets have now reached about 3000U, steadily progressing.
$ETH weekend market remains as quiet as usual, with no significant overall market fluctuations. Looking at the trading volume, it has shrunk to around 1.5 billion, even hitting a new low since I started trading recently.
This kind of volume is obviously unusual. The quieter it is, the more cautious we need to be; it feels like the market might be brewing a relatively big change.
Currently, my position is basically full, just patiently waiting for the market to give an answer. Whether it's a mule or a horse, the next few days will naturally reveal the truth.
Keep going, brothers! Wishing everyone can seize their own opportunities and have smooth sailing! 🔥🔥 The detailed operation flow of the liquidation on the 7th has been revealed. BTC and ETH suddenly reversed at high levels, and many people hadn't even reacted yet when the position direction had completely changed.
A couple of days ago, they were heavily long, adjusting positions for two consecutive days. This is clearly not a random directional guess but a typical high-level "taking profits + position adjustment switch" strategy.
📅 Entered on October 2:
$BTC two long orders, total amount over 12.9 million U, 50x leverage, opening prices at 86568.3 and 86369.4 respectively.
$ETH two long orders, opening prices 2739.47 and 2707.64, 30x leverage, directly betting on an upward breakout.
By early morning on October 3, they first handled the ETH longs, closing all near 2664.39, with nearly 3 million U exiting.
That night, the direction reversed again, opening ETH shorts near 2677.82, 30x leverage, newly establishing short positions of about 1.91 million U.
From heavy long to quick short, the entire switch process barely gave the market any reaction time.
Non-farm data unexpectedly weakened, rate cut expectations heated up. This round of position reduction and reversal looks more like a strategy adjustment based on macro changes rather than being driven by emotions.
The market changes rapidly; what truly matters is not stubbornly holding one direction but daring to adjust timely when the logic changes.📉These two small bullish candles look like a stabilization, but I advise you not to be fooled. Looking at the past four days' charts together, the main force hasn't hidden anything at all. At 2:30 PM on October 1st, ETH suddenly dropped continuously for several five-minute candles without any news. After staying sideways at a high level for so long, this was the first time someone actively pushed it down — this kind of dump says more than a crash itself because it has no reason, purely wanting toA single-day increase of nearly $60 can indeed improve market sentiment, but this is far from enough to support a long-term judgment. What truly keeps me focused on Ethereum is not how much it rises in a single day, but the open settlement system it builds, programmable accounts, and verifiable independent operation mechanisms, while the network continuously reduces usage costs. However, there are also issues here that cannot be ignored: oracles, cross-chain bridges, RPC, authorized signatures, and front-end entry points may all become security weak spots. Increased network activity does not mean that the security for ordinary users improves simultaneously. If on-chain transaction volume continues to grow in the future, but users still have to rely on only a few entry points; cross-chain assets frequently face redemption risks; and node operation thresholds keep rising, then even if ETH price performs strongly, I would downgrade my evaluation of its long-term quality. Conversely, short-term price corrections cannot directly negate Ethereum's long-term value. As long as security boundaries become clearer, users always retain the right to exit independently, and real demand continues to grow, then short-term fluctuations are mostly just market noise. Therefore, I view ETH not because every rise can be matched with a corresponding positive news, but because it is trying to make increasingly complex financial and application systems more open, transparent, and verifiable. Today's rise is just the market's result; the true long-term value still needs to be proven by sustained actual progress over the coming years. Next, I will focus on observing three aspects: 1️⃣ Whether the mainnet and scaling networks can enable more I'm charging ahead for you all, not because I'm stubborn, but because the market has made the answer very clear.
After $ETH surged to 2807, it kept closing with long upper shadows, and volume has been shrinking day by day; the bulls are clearly losing momentum.
Now it's grinding back and forth around 2690—not forming a bottom, but the main players are tricking retail investors into taking the bags.
The daily EMA5 has already started to turn down, and the price can't even hold above the short-term moving averages; this trend simply can't hold.
On the macro side, there's still rate hikes pressing down at the end of October, ETF funds are withdrawing, whales are cashing out at highs, and liquidity simply can't support a new round of rally.
Chasing longs now is just fueling the dog whales.
I'm holding a short position at 2713.62 with a return of +15.50%. I don't bet heavily; I only trade with a reasonable risk-reward ratio.
If it breaks above the previous high, I stop loss; if it falls below 2600, I keep holding.
Don't be fooled by the illusion that "it can't fall further"; the market has already given the direction. #DailyOrbit HYPE decisively cleared the position first. It might still surge to around 92U.
But I exited at around 90.7.
The overall ETH market is like this, not necessarily cooperating, I also bought at a high price, and the risk-reward ratio isn't enough.
Currently, HYPE itself has also entered a resistance zone, I will take my 1U profit and leave.$BTC Glassnode has revealed a very critical data point: in this cycle, long-term Bitcoin holders have been making profits from start to finish.
In the past, after 2015, in every bear market cycle, even long-term holders would mostly be stuck with losses at the market bottom. This was a consistent pattern before.
But this cycle is different. Even with market pullbacks, these long-term holders are still overall profitable; the indicator has not fallen into the loss zone, and the value is now starting to rise again.
Simply put, the old whales holding large amounts of chips basically have not experienced widespread deep losses. Behind this is the institutional incremental capital brought by ETFs, which has supported the entire market base.
However, everyone should look at this dialectically: this is a good thing, but it does not mean there won’t be a big drop. The fact that large holders are overall making money also means many have room to take profits. Once the market reaches a high level, the selling pressure from cashing out will also be significant. $ETH
History being broken means you can’t fully rely on old bear market experience for judgment. The past bottom-fishing reference standards may not apply this cycle.
You can take this as a signal of cycle resilience, but definitely don’t blindly use it as a reason to be bullish. Large holders not losing money does not mean the market won’t experience sharp volatility and pullbacks. $NEAR
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 $ZRO ZRO👇
Hardcore positive news
• ATLAS institutional platform: backed by Citadel/DTCC/ICE/Google Cloud, ZRO used for Gas + staking
• Cross-chain monopoly: processed 8.8 billion cross-chain transactions in 30 days, accounting for 93%, covering 165+ chains
• Top institutions: Cathie Wood advisor, Citadel + ARK strategic investment
• Stargate integration: STG exchange for ZRO, 100% revenue used for buyback and burn (already bought back $112.7 million)
• Technology: 2 million TPS, OFT standard supports 71% stablecoin cross-chain
⚠️ Risks
• 31.3 million tokens unlocked on 10/20 (3.1% of supply)
• Price has risen from $1.18 to over $2.0, deviation is high
In short: strong institutional narrative, but unlock is imminent + price has risen a lot, wait for a pullback to buy more $BTC RSI 63, MACD zeroed: BTC holding back for volume breakout Info: Fed just released stablecoin regulatory draft, 10Y US Treasury yield surged to 19-year high, macro continues suppress risk appetite. But on-chain shows completely different picture: wallets holding 10–10,000 BTC increased by 41,025 BTC in 10 days, total holdings account for 67.93% of total supply, retail holdings remain almost unchanged. ETF net inflow $2.65B in September and continues in October. Technical: Price repeatedly ru$PUMP The core driving force behind this round of increase is the supply contraction caused by protocol revenue buyback and burn, rather than pure market sentiment speculation.
Pump.fun uses 50% of protocol revenue to buy PUMP on the open market and burn it. This is a continuous buying mechanism; as long as the platform has revenue, the buying will not stop.
Currently, it has exceeded 468 million USD, cumulatively removing about 168.88 billion PUMP, accounting for 16.888% of the total supply. In late September, there were multiple single-day buybacks exceeding 1 million USD.
Short-term risk warning: During recent sell-offs caused by macro data, over 8.3 million USD long positions were liquidated, and the open interest in futures and spot remains high, so volatility may rapidly increase. Additionally, attention should be paid to whether subsequent token unlocks will offset the contraction effect of buyback and burn.
The platform's revenue is highly dependent on market activity; once the market cools down, the buyback strength will weaken accordingly. The above is only an objective summary based on existing information and does not constitute trading advice; position management still needs to be controlled independently. Bitwise NEAR spot ETF had a net inflow of about $35.5 million on its first day, followed by the ecosystem Intents suffering a vulnerability loss of about $3.8 million.
Here's what we see: According to SoSoValue, Bitwise NRR attracted about $35.5 million on its launch day, September 29; by September 30, cumulative net inflows exceeded $50 million, with net assets around $52.8 million.
On the third trading day, there was an additional inflow of about $9 million; once the institutional channel opened, it never stopped.
Subsequently, NEAR Intents lost about $3.8 million due to a cross-chain vulnerability, temporarily suspended services, and promised compensation; the token price dropped about 6.7% that day.
Simply put: Wall Street just bought the ticket, but the application layer took the hit first.
My view: The ETF brought institutional money in, but ecosystem incidents will first crush the premium; don't treat the initial $35.5 million as a moat.
What I do: Observe without chasing.
Hold above about 4.91 before looking at 5.06; if it falls below about 4.59, consider the ETF honeymoon over.
Do you believe funds will continue to pour into NRR, or will you wait for Intents to stabilize first?
$NEAR $BTC $ETH
#FederalReserveAndECBToReleaseSeptemberMeetingMinutes #BTCSpotETFBackToInflow #ETHFundsContinueOutflow$BTC $ETH's rebound yesterday
Today has basically engulfed yesterday's big bullish candle
The downtrend is officially unfolding
The space for further rebounds is very limited
Support around 2700 is the limit; it's hard to go higher
As mentioned yesterday, altcoins have already weakened in advance
Now BTC and ETH are just catching up with this rhythm
Manage your positions well
If you still want to catch the last bit of the tail, at most 5% position
Even if stuck, you still have 95% cash; you can trade rebounds during the big dips later
Gradually buy back in the real bottom area
You can miss the tail money, but don't lose your position $ZEC #The Fed and ECB will release September meeting minutes #BTC spot ETF inflows return, ETH funds continue outflow #Besenet: Rising US Treasury yields align with global trends
#DailyOrbit To earn this 200 yuan, there is an unrealized loss of 800 yuanHeld for three years, endured an unrealized loss of 65.83 million, and finally earned 84.31 million — this is the true meaning of "holding on."
From April to November 2023, someone withdrew 130,591 ETH from Bitfinex at an average price of $2026. They spent $264 million.
After the withdrawal, ETH didn’t rise. At its worst, it fell below the cost price, with an unrealized loss of $65.83 million. He didn’t sell or add to his position; he just left it there.
Three years later, ETH returned above 2700. He started depositing to exchanges. In the past week, he transferred in a total of 128,972 ETH at an average price of 2680. After the last transfer, the on-chain balance was zeroed out.
He sold everything, making a profit of $84.31 million.
From an unrealized loss of $65.83 million to a profit of $84.31 million, three years passed in between. He didn’t sell at the highest point; he sold when he "finally had a profit." He waited three years, waiting for this moment.
Retail investors lose and hold, profit and run. He bought and held, only moving when there was profit.
Can you endure an unrealized loss of $65.83 million? I can’t. That’s why I can’t make $84.31 million.
The above is compiled from on-chain data and is not investment advice.
$ETH $BTC Macro vacuum period, the market rises on low volume, but the logic behind the price movements of the three assets is completely different.
$BTC: The underlying security narrative is strengthening. EntropyLab released candidate versions of offline keys and wallet calculators. In the current environment where self-custody security is frequently questioned, the security of the base protocol is continuously being reinforced. The long-term logic remains solid, but in the short term, it is approaching previous resistance levels, and capital lacks the willingness to chase higher at this position, belonging to a "two steps forward, one step back" digestion phase.
$ETH: Vitalik is testing a privacy-protecting AI health system based on local models and zkAPI. This reveals Ethereum's deep exploration in the ZK and privacy computing track. The technical vision is fully extended, but such positive factors are long-term variables and cannot immediately translate into short-term buying pressure; the trend still passively follows the overall market.
$SOL: Stonk launched a "community coin" and returns 33% of the new Meme holders' rewards back to the ecosystem. Solana's strongest suit is directly converting on-chain traffic into liquidity. The continuous activity in the Meme sector effectively locks up ecosystem chips, which also explains why SOL shows the strongest price resilience among mainstream coins.
BTC is consolidating its security moat, ETH is laying out technical depth, and SOL is capitalizing on traffic dividends. Their narratives differ, but all lack systemic incremental capital. Looking at my account today, my mood is extremely complicated. BTC and SOL are crazily supporting my bottom line, but NEAR is like a bottomless pit, slowly eating away at my profits. The current holding experience is truly a "profit defense battle."
$BTC (the stabilizing anchor, crazily supporting the bottom)
Average holding price 84044, latest price 85041.
Unrealized profit 589.65U, return rate 23.37%.
BTC is really solid! It broke through the 85000 mark all the way, profits approaching 600U, successfully offsetting NEAR's losses.
$SOL (MVP of the field, isolated margin master move)
Average holding price 117.41, latest price 120.91.
Unrealized profit 127.60U, return rate 57.89%.
Margin rate 13.08%.
When the market was unclear, I tried isolated margin; now it has steadily secured nearly 58% profit. Most importantly, it perfectly isolates the risk brought by NEAR.
$NEAR (the deeper and deeper quagmire)
Average holding price 4.909, latest price 4.7903.
Unrealized loss 112.29U, return rate -51.35%.
This position has become a headache for me. From profit to deep water now, it is indiscriminately consuming the profits brought by BTC and SOL. The only confidence is that the liquidation price is still at 0.0560
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 The weekend calm cannot hide the divergence among the whales
BTC is consolidating with low volume near 84.6K, while ETH is sideways along the 7-day line at 2.68K. On the surface, it seems uneventful, but on-chain data shows two types of major players are doing opposite things.
In the past week, BTC whales have reduced holdings by about 30,000 coins ($2.52 billion), while ETH whales have increased holdings by about 60,000 coins ($162 million). This is not a simple rotation but a directional judgment made by large funds on the two assets.
The 84,000–85,000 range for BTC is the area with the densest chips held by long-term holders. Glassnode marks it as a key resistance that must be reclaimed. Whales reducing holdings at this level means they believe the cost of a short-term breakout is too high.
ETH’s situation is more subtle. Whales are buying, but the retail long-short ratio is as high as 2.93, with 74.6% of accounts betting on a rise. This structure itself is a hidden risk—when chips flow from strong hands to weak hands, a downward sweep is enough to wipe out the most fragile leverage.
2,628 is the first trap door for ETH; breaking below it points to 2,576. If BTC falls below 84K, the vacuum below points directly to 77K.
Whales are selling BTC and buying ETH, while retail is chasing ETH. When the two sides stand opposed, the market direction is often decided by the more patient side. $BTC $ETH
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 🛡️ Bitcoin Defended Its Floor and Climbed Back to $85K
Around Friday's jobs report, BTC spiked to $87.2K, then flushed to $83,900. The $83.2K to $84.1K demand zone held, and price is back at $85,130.
Payrolls came in at 29,000 vs 84,000 expected, and traders now see the Fed holding in October.
Clear $86K on a 4H close and $87.4K opens. Lose $84K and the demand zone gets retested.
Thin weekend volume. Wait for Monday.
Fourth time lucky at $86K?
Not financial advice. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 🐳 Big Brother Maji is loading up again.
Total exposure is back around $145M:
$BTC → ~$24.5M
$ETH → ~$99.4M
$HYPE → ~$15.5M
$PUMP → ~$5.65M
Current unrealized loss: ~$1.03M
Margin utilization: 83.76%
After cutting positions earlier, Maji has started rebuilding—adding 53 BTC alone. 👀
BTC + ETH remain the main positions, while HYPE + PUMP add more aggressive upside exposure.
Whale moves can offer useful clues, but they’re never a guaranteed signal for what comes next. 📊🐳Good morning. Here is today's market update!
Morning session: The market is just drifting.
Bulls and bears are staring each other down.
Whoever makes the first move will be embarrassed.
$BTC
Dropped, but not by much.
Like receiving a paycheck after fees are deducted.
Support at 82500.
Hold it and play dead.
Break it and it's truly dead.
$ETH
Moves in tandem with BTC.
Spikes up and down.
Support at 2600.
ETH: I have no direction.
Candlestick: Correct.
#FedECBMeetingMinutes #DailyOrbit The "500-day rule" has a fairly high hit rate historically.
In the last cycle, buying 500 days before the halving and selling 500 days after the halving corresponds to the period from November 2022 to September 2025.
$BTC rose from around 16,000 to 126,000 during that time.
From 2016 to 2017 and 2019 to 2021, following the same rhythm also captured the main upward trends.$BNB Damn it! The BNB order book is starting to have dogs biting dogs again, completely silent outside with no news at all, purely funds forcibly pulling inside. Look at this K-line washout, the dog manipulators' sickles are almost raised to their necks, retail investors' chips are as loose as tofu dregs.
I've been watching the 789 level for a long time, the order book support is ridiculously thick, obviously someone is secretly accumulating. Don't talk to me about news, it's all nonsense, just watch the real money pouring in.
My plan: Light position lurking around 789, stop loss at 775, if it breaks, leave immediately without hesitation. This kind of purely technical strong pull market, if you follow right you feast, if wrong you get cut.
If you want to follow, click the market card below, don't go all in on position, stop loss is a must. Are you ready to lurk or just watch the show? 👇👇👇
Content is only personal review, not investment advice, profit and loss at your own risk. $ETH weekend liquidity disappeared directly, with only 1.8 billion in trading over 24 hours.
Better to rest on Saturday and Sunday, wait and see what happens tomorrow.
Today's volatility is probably the same as yesterday, no trading volume, no volatility
#FedECBMeetingMinutes
#BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge
#BessentTreasuryYields The US-Iran situation remains tense, and the world has begun releasing strategic oil reserves.
US-Iran situation → Oil prices → Inflation → Federal Reserve policy → Global liquidity.
If the reserve release can lower oil prices:
Oil prices fall
→ Inflation pressure eases
→ Federal Reserve policy pressure lessens
→ Liquidity expectations improve
→ BTC and ETH might actually benefit.
But if the situation escalates further and oil prices surge again, the logic reverses:
Oil prices rise
→ Inflation concerns heat up
→ Rate cut expectations are suppressed
→ US Treasury yields may rise
→ Risk assets come under pressure.
Whether oil prices can continue to decline and whether the Fed's rate cut expectations are affected.
In the short term, BTC's resilience may be stronger than ETH's.
But if macro pressures ease later and funds start flowing back into high-risk assets, ETH might also see a catch-up rally. $BTC $ETH #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 Do you know how far the US government shutdown has gone? The SEC has directly entered a funding interruption, employees aren't getting paid, so who is going to review your ETF applications? Over ninety crypto ETF applications are lined up and all frozen. Litecoin, SOL, XRP are all waiting in line. It's not a rejection, nor an approval, just four words: nobody is processing them. My first reaction when I saw this was not panic, but laughter. The coin issuers are anxious, the market makers are anxToday's battle report:
📉 $BTC Long/100x: Opened at 84772 → Closed at 84797, fully closed 0.7371 coins, loss of -37.89U (-6.06%).
📈 $MINA Short/20x: Opened at 0.16871 → Closed at 0.16841, fully closed 11582 coins, profit of +1.73U (+1.77%).
BTC 100x leverage is too brutal, small coins with 20x leverage are steadier. Overall slight loss, being alive is what mattersTomorrow's mainnet upgrade combined with staking incentives, STRK surges 30.87% in a single day, reaching $0.05604
STRK on OKX surged 30.87% in one day, touching $0.05604. If you hold a position, watch the turnover at $0.05604 today. Starknet officially plans to deploy the v0.14.4 mainnet upgrade tomorrow, October 5, mainly expanding the single-block proof capacity to 1.1 billion L2 gas. Additionally, in the past two days, cross-chain bridge fee subsidies and staking dividends have been introduced for strkBTC, pushing the spot buying demand and driving the price up. However, on October 15, 127 million STRK tokens will be unlocked, so next week we need to pay attention to how this portion of the supply flows out.
I just checked the order book in the OKX contract area. The STRK-USDT perpetual funding rate is around 0.0048%, with bulls not borrowing much to chase the price higher. The 24-hour spot trading volume reached 22.57 million USDT, with a single-day increase of 30.87%. The total altcoin contract open interest across the platform is $3.176 billion, with the altcoin-to-BTC open interest ratio at 1.064, and the fear and greed index stuck at 65, indicating the market's overall capital is relatively restrained.
This afternoon, I added STRK-USDT perpetual contracts to my watchlist. I continue to keep spot holdings in OKX Simple Earn to earn flexible income. After a 30.87% single-day surge, chasing contract longs now is not cost-effective.Big Brother Maji's move this time is really decisive, PUMP was directly liquidated in one go, with the total position steady at 146 million USD. Marginal positions were cut, scattered funds all pulled back, clearly holding back for a new move. Let's take a look at Big Brother's latest position data:
BTC: 378 coins, average price 84,700, floating profit 152,900. The liquidation price dropped sharply to 65,200, the defense line is much more stable; recently, he has been repeatedly selling high and buying low at this level, the rhythm is quite precise.
ETH: 36,000 coins, average price 2,688, floating profit back to 610,000. But burning 1.23 million in daily funding fees, liquidation price pressed down to 2,495. Although profits remain, defensive pressure is still huge, relying entirely on a strong foundation from earlier.
HYPE: position reduced to 174,000 coins, average price 89.72, currently a slight profit of 65,200. Liquidation price dropped to 45, risk released very cleanly.
After clearing PUMP, Big Brother's 146 million portfolio basically consists of the three cores: BTC, ETH, and HYPE. Cutting marginal positions cleanly shows he doesn't want to diversify funds now, planning to focus on defending mainstream coins. With the current market grinding back and forth, better to keep your bullets ready first, and wait for the direction to become clear before making a move.
$ETH $HYPE $BTC $ETH: opened at 1926.4, current price 1856.04, full position 20X short for next quarter, floating profit 365U, ROI 54%. Below 1900, continue to watch 1800.
$BTC: opened at 64349.7, current price 63089.34, full position 20X short, floating profit 206U, ROI 40%. Below 64000, continue to watch 62000.
$LAB: opened at 0.1352, current price 0.1363, isolated margin 20X long, floating profit 54U, ROI 17%. Steadily rising, continue to watch 0.14.Clarity in the sideways market
$BTC stalled at 84600, $ETH hanging at 2678, the 15-minute chart as thin as a sheet of paper. The order book is sparse, a few small orders can poke out long wicks. The rise is hollow, the fall is fast, yet funds refuse to enter.
The inflow heat of BTC has ebbed, ETH is even stranger: no increase in volume, yet someone is forcibly pulling. Without volume to support, the direction is mostly an illusion. SOL remains a shadow; when BTC is up, it follows, when BTC is down, it falls even harder; today it’s too lazy to even act.
Watching the market makes me yawn, only then do I understand that being out of position is also a position. I still hold my position but no longer mistake stubborn holding for bravery. May every trader have less obsession and more patience. When the market doesn’t move, staying still is a skill.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 Good Morning fam
Day 39 of my 500U compounding journey. Total assets are now around 3,000U.
$ETH is moving quietly this weekend, but the low volume is what caught my attention.
Trading volume has dropped to around $1.5B one of the lowest levels I’ve seen during this journey.
Low volume + compressed price action usually means the market is waiting for a catalyst.
I’m already heavily positioned, so no chasing here. Just watching how the next few days unfold.
Let the market decide.