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When I first entered the circle, seeing news like "The Department of Justice investigates the Federal Reserve Chair," my first reaction was: It's over, something big is happening, quickly check if $BTC is about to crash.
But after watching the market all night, nothing happened.
Now the Department of Justice says they are no longer investigating Powell.
To be clear, this matter has never really had much to do with the crypto price.
Whether the Federal Reserve Chair changes or not, or whether there’s an investigation, it only affects the internal drama of the old dollar system.
The only thing that really impacts the crypto world is whether the market thinks this means more money will be created.
So far, it doesn’t look like it.
This kind of news is a typical "looks scary but actually useless."
The most common mistake for newcomers is treating every piece of news from Washington as a market signal.
I did the same back then, only to realize I was just scaring myself.
When you first came in, were you also fooled by these "big news" stories?
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#非农降温难压美债收益率，长期利率压力仍在 #美联储副主席：AI建设正带来新的通胀压力 $BTC $CT continues to look weak, and the traders who chased the highs two days ago are now sitting in uncomfortable positions. The capital data tells an interesting story: Previously, smart-money longs were around 80,000 U, with an average entry near 0.47. Now, that exposure has jumped to roughly 350,000 U — more than 4× higher. But there’s a problem. The average long price has climbed to around 0.53, while $CT is still hovering near 0.51. That means a large portion of the newly added long capital en#US September Nonfarm Payrolls Increase by Only 29,000, Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.2%
Nonfarm payrolls are this weak, so who exactly is holding back BTC from surging?
Yesterday, the nonfarm data was released, clearly weaker than expected, signaling a cooling labor market.
According to the usual script: the worse the nonfarm data, the lower the rate hike expectations, and BTC should rise.
But this time,
BTC surged to around $87,000 after the data came out, then was pulled back to around $84,500.
Why?
Because the market's pricing power has shifted to US Treasuries.
Employment can worsen, but as long as the 10-year Treasury yield remains above 5% at a high level, the market won't easily believe that "easing is coming soon." Previously, when yields rose again, BTC fell in sync.
So the key focus going forward: when will Treasury yields truly come down?
If yields continue to oscillate at high levels, $BTC will most likely keep grinding between $84,000 and $87,000;
If the 10-year Treasury yield starts to consistently fall below 5%, then the rate cut expectations brought by this weak nonfarm data might truly transmit to BTC.Last week, I shorted $ZEC and lost a month's salary; this month, I went long and lost another month's salary.
It rises whenever I short, and falls whenever I go long. Why does it have to be against me?
I really can't take it anymore, ZEC, you jerk!
Yesterday, a brother messaged me saying he lost three months' salary on ZEC and asked if he could still hold on.
I didn't dare say "it will come back up."
Because three months ago, I was the one staring at the K-line late at night, palms sweating, stubbornly holding on.
Now ZEC has dropped from 1698 to 1333, a 21% pullback, RSI is still at 50.2, and ADX has reached 52.0.
About 2700 ZEC have entered the Ironwood shield pool on-chain.
ETFs are withdrawing, on-chain funds are moving, and regulatory attention is increasing.
Some say 1233 is a key support, but ZEC previously rose from 480 to 1698, an increase of over 250%, so a 21% pullback isn't really deep.
So whether this is a normal correction or a trend change, we still have to wait and see.
Last week shorting lost a month's salary, this month going long lost another month's salary.
The market won't necessarily rebound just because you lost three months' salary.
Don't let small losses turn into big ones.
As for falling below 1200, don't chase shorts wildly; with coins like this, the harder they fall, the more likely a big bullish candle will suddenly appear.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $OKB/USDT 1H
Sellers still control the intraday structure.
Price is below MA5, MA10 and MA20, with each average sloping downward. The latest candle also broke beneath the 120.15 area.
Short entry: 120.10–120.25
SL: 120.48
TP1: 119.85
TP2: 119.65
TP3: 119.30
The bearish view weakens if OKB recovers 120.38 and holds it as support.
Educational only, not financial advice.
#USNFPDataCools #BTCETHETFOutflows #G7OilReserveRelease 🔥NFP SHOCK — BUT BTC GOT HAMMERED
□□ September NFP:+29Kvs+90K expected
📉 Miss:61K / ~68%
👷 Unemployment:4.2%
💵 Wage growth:3.0% YoY
BTC initially ripped toward$87K🚀
Then came the rejection. 😮
Weak jobs can reduce pressure for Fed tightening, butyields, the dollar and liquiditystill matter.
🎯 $87K reclaim → $90K
⚠️ $85K loss → $83K
Was that a shakeout — or BTC warning us? 👀Rotation Variations: From Recession to Repricing
$BTC faces initial pressure, with ETF outflows reducing incremental gains. It doesn't have to lead the rally but must hold the dense chip accumulation zone; otherwise, rotation cannot be discussed. Macro weakness brings rate cut expectations but first withdraws short-term risk appetite.
$ETH is observed for support: the ecosystem and staking narratives remain. If it can show relative strength during BTC's sideways movement, the catch-up rally will be confirmed; otherwise, it's just a rebound.
$SOL still has elasticity, but high beta will backfire when volume shrinks. The rise is fast, and the pullback is also quick; position sizing determines the outcome before direction.
$XRP acts as a sentiment thermometer: if this established asset expands volume from a niche area, it indicates capital willingness to test the outer circle, and rotation spreads from the core.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000 with a 4.2% unemployment rate, giving easing expectations; simultaneous outflows from BTC and ETH spot ETFs remind that heat is cooling down. Don't mistake macro tailwinds as entry signals; first watch if capital flows back. Rotation is not broad-based gains but switches between "defense—probing—diffusion." Rhythm remains more important than direction.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Divide the net ETF inflows of ETH and BTC over the last 60 common trading days by their respective market capitalizations to obtain RFD60. Comparing this with the ETH/BTC exchange rate, the two rhythms indeed align quite well:
After RFD60 crosses above the zero line, ETH/BTC usually enters a recovery phase; after RFD60 falls back below zero, ETH/BTC generally weakens.
As of September 30, RFD20 is +0.084 percentage points, having rapidly narrowed and approached neutrality; Livermore wrote in "Memoirs of a Stock Operator": Never bet all your capital on one idea; when your bullets run out, you don't even have the qualification to aim for it. Paul Tudor Jones also said: When you're in bad shape, you must reduce your position size and don't increase your bets in adversity. Countless trading veterans have proven with the cost of liquidation: what often defeats traders is not market judgment, but uncontrolled positions. In the futures market, today I share the once legendary 3-3 position system of BitLanglang, a survival standard that ordinary people can directly implement. Split the total funds into three parts, using only one portion as a trading portfolio for each trade. BTC leverage is controlled within 10 times, altcoins no more than 5 times. If a trade loses money, it compensates for the principal of that trading portfolio and maintains a fixed trading size; If the order is profitable, the profit is directly withdrawn from the account. Only after the overall principal doubles is the position size increased per share. The core of this rule is simple: even if the position is completely lost, at most one-third of the total funds will be lost, and it won't be reset to zero. No impulsive increase in positions just because of consecutive profits, nor will one rush to recoup losses to gamble with heavy positions. Buffett once warned: leverage is addictive; no matter how big the profit, multiply it by zero and everything will vanish. Many people study candlesticks and indicators but neglect position management. Understanding market trends is just skill; controlling positions is the key to survival. Opportunities will always appear repeatedly, but principal only comes once. No matter how good the technique, without strict position rules as a safety net, it is ultimately just a gamble. Ke🟣$ZEC — NOW WATCH
ZEC is around $1,318, down about 5.2% in 24h and 22% below its $1,697 ATH. (OKX)
🔥 The volatility is real: a $4.51M long was liquidated around $1,288 today. (Pluang)
📊 ETF flows also turned negative:
-$30.2M → -$12.4M → -$26.9M over the last 3 reported sessions. (Farside Investors)
🎯 $1,350 → $1,400 → $1,500
⚠️ $1,300 → $1,250 → $1,200
Flush before the bounce, or ZEC heading lower? 👀84 k super important pivot if you want to see continuation higher
Below there 80 k flat becomes the target for next week
$BTC#btc #eth Why did the non-farm payroll data fall far short of expectations, yet the crypto stock market still plunged? First, the data truly lacks credibility. Second, poor employment means weak economic vitality; economic recession is scarier than interest rate hikes. Rate hikes are short-term negatives, but recession means a stock market crash. However, obviously, there are not yet enough signals of an economic recession. If AI cannot lead the economy to greatness again, then the American Dream and the economy definitely won't continue to be great. At that time, the economy will surely decline, but currently, there are no signs of that. Third, it's just the same old trick: once news breaks, whether spot or long positions, there will definitely be more buying. The manipulators won't be kind enough to carry you; they will definitely shake things up. Shaking is healthy. For now, the bullish trend remains unchanged, at least for now. BTC has strong support at 83-85. ETH 30-50 is ready to board anytime. Non-farm payrolls released, market divergence fully amplified! ZEC down 5.82%, DOGE weakened in sync, SK Hynix almost held steady with only 0.17% drop. $DOGE | 0.09249, -2.77% Sentiment-driven asset, continued decline after NFP, approaching support. Only light positions for speculation, significant risk if support breaks. $ZEC | 1292.41, -5.82% Previously strong asset releasing selling pressure, stuck near key support; if broken, downside could expand. SK HYNIX | 1372.7, -0.17% Physical chip proYesterday, I was sitting on +$480+ with $PEPE. I didn’t take the profit. Now I’m looking at -$300+ instead. 😭 Every time I check the account, the numbers seem to disappear. I kept thinking: “Maybe it goes a little higher. I’ll sell later.” But “later” turned a winning position into a painful loss. That’s the lesson. Trading isn’t only about finding the right entry — knowing when to take what the market gives you matters too. Greed can turn a good trade into a bad one very quickly. From here, I’The market is like a spring being continuously compressed; the direction is still unclear for now, but energy is steadily accumulating.
$USELESS has retraced from 0.3588 down to around 0.229, with EMA5, EMA10, and EMA20 clearly showing a bearish alignment, and each rebound weaker than the last.
At the same time, the consolidation range continues to narrow, and trading volume is shrinking in sync; the market is waiting for the next directional choice.
If the current support is effectively broken, 0.20 may become the first psychological barrier below; if it fails to hold, further downward moves to seek liquidity cannot be ruled out.
On the other hand, volatility for $BTC and $ETH is rising, but no clear directional confirmation has appeared yet.
Non-farm payroll data, changes in rate cut expectations, and the continued rise in US Treasury yields are repeatedly disturbing market risk appetite.
Meanwhile, news about OpenAI’s massive financing again indicates that the AI narrative may continue to divert market funds.
So the current market looks more like a brief silence before a major move.
Before the direction is confirmed, rather than rushing to bet, it’s better to control your position size and leave yourself enough room to handle volatility.
Opportunities in the market are never lacking; what’s truly scarce is having enough capital and patience before those opportunities arise.Non-farm payrolls landed with only a 29,000 increase in September, expected around 90,000, and the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%. Employment is cooling off, but will the Fed immediately open the floodgates to cut rates? 🤔
Don't rush. Rate cuts still depend on inflation stickiness, financial conditions, and policy signals. U.S. Treasury yields remain high, the dollar hasn't weakened significantly, and the market hasn't fully bet on "weak jobs = immediate easing."
Crypto leads the cheer. $BTC reclaimed 86,000, briefly approaching 87,000 after the data; $ETH rose from 2,600 to 2,750, breaking out of the late September consolidation; $SOL bounced to 122, up 3%-4% in 24 hours, showing resilience. 😄
But the enthusiasm is limited: spot ETFs are seeing outflows, with no new incremental funds. Interest rates and the dollar continue to pressure valuations, making this more of a recovery after bad news than a bull market signal. Don't judge the whole picture by a single non-farm payroll candle.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
Last night, the nonfarm payroll data was a huge surprise, and we need to talk about it.
The US added only 29,000 nonfarm jobs in September, while the market expected 85,000, nearly three times the difference. Even more striking, August's data was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000, and July was worse, changing from an increase of 21,000 to a decrease of 10,000. These two months combined added 60,000 fewer jobs than previously reported. The unemployment rate also rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, again higher than expected. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, showing wages are also stagnating.
In short, both employment and wage data weakened, signaling a clear cooling in the labor market. Normally, this kind of data is very positive for risk assets because it significantly eases rate hike pressure. But BTC's movement is interesting: after the data release, it surged briefly but was quickly pushed back down and is now hovering around 84,600.
Why is this happening? The core reason is "buy the rumor, sell the fact." The market had already priced in the "weak nonfarm" expectation days ago, pushing BTC from 83,500 to 87,238. When the actual data came out and was indeed poor, there was no new incremental buying to support it, so early profit-takers cashed out, causing the price to fall.
From a long-term perspective, weakening employment continues to suppress rate hike expectations, so the long-term logic remains bullish.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC A brother rushed into $CORE with just 6U on launch day. At the time, the group was going crazy: “$CORE is going 100x.” “Maybe even 1,000x.” “It will crush Ethereum.” “It will surpass Bitcoin.” The hype was everywhere. He ended up with 10,000+ tokens, believing the position could completely change his life. Then reality hit. Day 2: $5 Day 3: $4 He asked the group what was happening. The group leader said: “Just a shakeout. Hold.” One month later: $1 Six months later: $0.50 One year later: $0.05 T$BTC
Life of crypto people during the seven-day holiday:
October 1: Spacing out
October 2: Self-blame
October 3: Reflection
October 4: Repentance
October 5: Review
October 6: Planning
October 7: Daydreaming
.......
October 8 (evening): Swearing#BTC is still trading below the key HTF resistance structure, and the next Higher High (HH) is NOT confirmed yet. The critical level to watch is the $80,108 Inducement (IND) level. BULLISH SCENARIO: If BTC holds above $80,108 and breaks the current resistance structure, we could see a new HH and continuation toward the ATH zone. BEARISH SCENARIO: If BTC breaks below $80,108 and gets a confirmed HTF close below the Inducement, the market structure could weaken significantly. In that case, $70K–$6Take a look at the volume profile for $SOL on the 3-day timeframe over the past two years. I can see the Point of Control (POC) at $84.7 and a High Volume Node (HVN) in the $140–$147 range.
SOL needs to build up accumulation at the HVN to continue rising; otherwise, it could face a sell-off back to the POC.ETH intraday market
After a false breakout last night, it fell back to the consolidation range and continued to fluctuate. It seems there's not much to analyze. If you really want to trade, wait to short at the upper edge of the range and go long at the lower edge. If it's neither up nor down, just rest.This round of non-farm payrolls: the first reaction was surprise, the second was shock. The rate cut trade just started, but growth concerns quickly overtook it, and after the market surged, it collectively gave back gains.
Crypto circle:
$BTC: after probing 87,000, it dropped back to 85,000, failing to hold;
$ETH: retreated from 2770 to 2700, with reduced gains;
$SOL: fell from 123.6 to 120, also pulling back in sync.
US stock circle:
MU: slid from 1108 to 1093, basically giving back gains after the non-farm report;
SNDK: continued to fall from a high level, weakness more evident.
The first buy was on rate cuts, the second sell was on growth concerns. Is the cooling employment data a positive for interest rates or a sign of economic slowdown? Funds are starting to hesitate; BTC, ETH, SOL surged then softened, MU and SNDK also showed strength then weakness. It's not that non-farm had no impact, but the market rushed in too fast, choked, and is now recalculating. Some short sellers just exited and are kicking themselves, while those chasing longs feel even worse.
Meanwhile, Strive is preparing to scoop up over 1270 BTC this week. On one hand, short-term revaluation; on the other, institutions keep accumulating. The second bite is hard to swallow, but long-term buyers haven't stopped.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK #US September non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2% #BTC,ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital heat #Tensions between the US and Iran continue, G7 to release up to 100 million barrels of reserves he ONE 4H chart confirms a classic bear flag continuation structure following the severe sell-off from $0.0052. Immediate rejection near $0.00250 along the descending ceiling on declining corrective volume confirms complete buyer exhaustion against persistent trend pressure. The preferred strategy is to enter a Short position near $0.00250–$0.00251 with a stop-loss parameter above $0.002814, targeting the lower expansion floor at $0.001030 $ONE
#USNFPDataCools
#BTCETHETFOutflows The address with the largest unrealized profit on ETH on Hyperliquid holds 30,300 ETH long positions, with an unrealized profit of $16.52 million, an opening price of $2,134, and a return rate of 408%. The position was opened in August and held all the way until now. When it comes to bottom fishing, both courage and patience count as capital 😇
$BTC $ETHState channels are very fast, but they are better suited for repeated transactions among fixed participants.
State channels allow participants to first lock funds into an on-chain contract, then repeatedly exchange signed states off-chain, only using the mainnet when opening, disputing, or closing. They can provide fast, low-cost interactions, especially suitable for frequent payments and game operations between two or a few fixed participants. The limitations are also clear: funds need to be locked in advance, participants must keep backups of the latest state, and timely challenge if the other party submits an old state. Complex applications open to arbitrary users and contracts are difficult to fit entirely into the same channel. For $ETH, state channels are not an outdated technology completely replaced by Rollups, but a tool to solve specific interaction problems. The scaling path does not have to have a single winner; the key is to align security assumptions with use cases. Speed comes from reducing on-chain transactions, not from eliminating final settlement.
Channels also require participants to be able to come online or delegate monitoring during the dispute period; otherwise, they may miss rebutting when the other party submits an old state. Speed is built on continuously saving the latest signatures and timely responses. When participants change frequently, the costs of reopening channels, locking funds, and exiting will offset some of the performance advantages.The 500-day cycle framework has shown a notable historical pattern around Bitcoin halving cycles. In the previous cycle, the window from roughly 500 days before the halving to 500 days after covered approximately November 2022 → September 2025. During that period: 📈 $BTC moved from around $16,000 to $126,000. Looking further back, similar timing around the 2016–2017 and 2019–2021 cycles also coincided with the major portions of Bitcoin’s broader uptrends. It’s not a guarantee that history repeaWLD surged 17% today, returning to $0.57.
When emphasizing WLD repeatedly around $0.43 earlier, the core logic was that this level was already low enough, and World’s real product expansion was just beginning.
Recently, World Money has officially launched in over 150 countries, integrating stablecoin payments, trading, earnings, and World ID all into one app.
Now the price has risen from $0.43 to $0.57, increasing by more than 30% in a short time.
More importantly, $0.57 has once again hit theNonfarm payrolls released, September added only 29,000, far below the expected 90,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Employment is indeed cooling down, but does this mean the Fed will immediately open the rate cut channel? 🤔
Not necessarily. Rate cut trades still depend on inflation stickiness, financial conditions, and policy wording. Currently, US Treasury yields remain high, the dollar hasn't weakened significantly, and the market hasn't fully bet on "weak jobs = immediate easing." The first wave of manual entries is complete. Current exposure: 1/8 of the total planned position. There are still two more waves planned. 🔹 Wave 2 If the market remains at current levels or improves, the second wave could be executed Sunday–Monday, with the position size doubling. 🔹 Wave 3 After Wave 2, if BTC continues showing a relatively strong and steady uptrend for roughly one week, the third wave could be executed, doubling the position again. For now, the recent correction has shown reNonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, versus an expected 84,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%, and wages also declining. Normally, this would be bullish, cooling rate hike expectations and pushing risk assets higher. However, ironically, it was the long positions that got liquidated.
There are three layers to this.
First layer: buying the expectation, selling the fact. Before the data release, the market had already priced in weak nonfarm payrolls and no rate hike in October.I’ll admit it — the volume got a little crazy last night, and Ethereum eventually dropped in waterfall fashion. 😭 Yesterday afternoon, ETH ripped higher and wiped out a wave of shorts. Then came the night session… another sharp move down, taking out both sides of the market. Longs got hit. Shorts got shaken. Nobody got an easy ride. ☠️ I kept my existing short position, but I didn’t dare add another short around $2,750. In the end, ETH dropped nearly $40 in that waterfall move. Not exactly a maDamn, just saw the data on TRUMP, it's fucking disgusting. The team wallet transferred 81.87 million TRUMP tokens in 8 months, average price 3.04, directly dumping them on Binance and OKX, cashing out 249 million USD. This is outright robbery.
What's even more outrageous is that out of a total of 800 million tokens, the team holds 80%, and retail investors only 20%. They still hold 718 million tokens, worth 1.49 billion.
The Trump family's greed is uglier than a manipulative whale. Retail investors are still shouting MAGA, while they have already cashed out over 200 million USD. You think it's faith, but they see you as an ATM.
Don't touch TRUMP, this kind of coin is just giving them money. No matter how much the market rises, I won't buy a single share of this.Nonfarm payrolls across the board missed expectations, but Bitcoin rallied against the trend: rate cut trades reignited
The US September nonfarm payroll data delivered a "broad miss" — only 29,000 new jobs added, less than a third of the expected 90,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, average hourly earnings growth slowed to 3%, and the private sector was also weak. The cooling signals in the labor market are very clear now.
Why did Bitcoin rise despite weak employment data? 🇺🇸 On October 2nd yesterday, the Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA) officially sued the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), challenging the OCC's legal authority to grant national trust bank charters to crypto companies.
Prior to this, the OCC had approved or conditionally approved trust bank charters for crypto companies including Coinbase and Circle.
In fact, ICBA had previously submitted objections to trust bank charter applications from crypto companies like ZeroHash,
so this lawsuit is not a sudden event but a continuation of the ongoing struggle between traditional banking and crypto over bank charters and regulatory boundaries.
It is clear that crypto is becoming increasingly integrated into the U.S. financial system, so could the OCC's charter system become an important gateway for crypto to enter the U.S. financial infrastructure? $BTC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% NEAR fund recovery, the next page is even more worth seeing
Seeing “all $3.8 million returned” brings a sigh of relief. The head of NEAR Intents stated in a public update on October 2 that the stolen funds have been fully returned, the team will stop the investigation, and called for issues to be reported through the bug bounty program.
Looking back at the timeline: on October 1, the team disclosed the security incident with an initial loss of about $3.8 million and promised full compensation. Now the “promise of compensation” has moved to “announcement of recovery,” which is substantial progress, but these two messages should not be confused as happening at the same time.
What I care more about in the follow-up review is clarifying: how the problem was discovered, what was fixed, and which parts underwent re-inspection. The money is back, but the service interruption causing user wait times and uncertainty also deserves serious documentation.
This news reminds me that when using cross-chain products, a simple step on the interface may involve multiple processes behind the scenes. Simple operation is good, but if something goes wrong, clearly explaining the process is equally important.
My view is that the recovery result is commendable; long-term trust still depends on transparent explanations and ongoing operational accumulation. Following this matter, what I want to continue seeing is the quality of the review, not just celebration posters.
#NEAR #OnChainSecurity #CryptoThe non-farm payrolls are finally out, and this time the numbers are clearly weaker than expected. The US added just 29,000 non-farm jobs in September, far below the market’s previous expectation of around 90,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate climbed from 4.1% to 4.2%. At first glance, it may seem like this gives the Federal Reserve more room to cut rates. But I wouldn’t jump to that conclusion just yet. The current market environment is more complicated than simply saying, “Weak jobs$WLD
Can the counter-trend gains be maintained until the next pullback?
The 24-hour price range observed this morning was 0.511—0.588, with a trading volume of approximately 39.98 million USDT.
The morning window saw a rise of about 10%, outperforming mainstream coins. Relative strength is established, but the long-term trend still requires pullback support for validation.
I will watch whether the volume increases to break above 0.588 and then holds on the pullback; if this structure appears, it will increase confidence in continuation. The downside risk is insufficient support and failed recovery; if it falls below 0.511 and the rebound cannot reclaim it, the outlook will be downgraded. The above boundaries are from the morning window, and subsequent market changes need to be rechecked.DOGE has reached another significant milestone!
The compliant US market has started to offer real $DOGE perpetual contracts.
Kalshi has launched DOGE perpetual futures, allowing US users to participate in DOGE leveraged trading in a CFTC-regulated market. Unlike traditional futures with expiration dates, perpetual contracts have no fixed expiry and can continuously track DOGE price fluctuations. (Kalshi News)
What’s even more noteworthy:
① DOGEUSD_RTI from CF Benchmarks is used as the price reference;
② Supports 24/7 trading;
③ This is the first compliant DOGE perpetual trading channel in the US market;$BTC didn't hold the 84.5K low and a little long flush was triggered.
We discussed this yesterday, and now we're probably seeing some flatlining this Saturday with some potential movement on Sunday.
I'm not positioning during the weekend, but I'm already looking at scenario's on Bitcoin for next week.
This drop to the downside left two big gaps, so orders probably need to be filled there before a potential bigger drop.
So if we test the 85.7K-86.7K region before testing 82K$AXS Damn it! This AXS market just made me laugh, the resistance above 1.2235 is so tight, is the manipulator playing a shakeout here? 🎯
Checked the candlesticks, volume is shrinking like winter, each rebound is weaker than the last, the 1.22 level keeps getting tested but can't break through, a typical bull trap for distribution. It's purely a battle of funds, no news at all, just technicals speaking — got it?
Hunter suggests shorting directly at the current price 1.2235, stop loss at 1.25, first target at 1.15, if broken then 1.10. Don't chase highs or catch bottoms, this kind of manipulative market requires following the manipulator's direction to ambush.
Copy trades voluntarily, profits and losses at your own risk. 👇👇👇$BTC My mathematical calculations point to $87K being the top: ( See quoted post ).
But as you know, I don’t rely on just one type of analysis.
Even though I used the Wyckoff strategy several years ago, I decided to apply it again — this time to Bitcoin’s 4H chart.
When I compare the current structure with Wyckoff Distribution #2, the similarities are interesting:
Phase A → Phase B → UT/UTAD → Phase D → LPSY → SOW → Phase E
The move toward $87K fits the potential UT/UTAD area. Below is a revised version that reads more like a financial news flash + market analysis in Chinese, with tighter logic and higher information density:
Writing
🚨 Nonfarm payrolls data severely missed expectations, yet BTC experienced a "bullish news turning bearish" reaction!
US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the market expectation of 84,000; unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and wage growth also cooled down.
On the surface, this is a clearly weak employment report: rate hike expectations eased, liquidity pressure theoretically relieved, and risk assets should have benefited.
But the actual market movement was completely opposite—BTC surged then quickly retreated, with bulls becoming the main liquidation targets.
Why?
① "Buy the rumor, sell the fact"—positive expectations were priced in early
Before the nonfarm data release, the market had already bet on weaker employment and a decline in October rate hike expectations, pushing BTC from around $84,000 up to above $87,000.
In other words, some of the positive news was priced in ahead of time.
When the data actually landed, funds chose to take profits, turning the good news into a trigger for short-term selling.
② Data was too poor, sparking concerns over a "recession trade"
Employment gains under 30,000, combined with downward revisions to previous data and rising unemployment, shifted market focus beyond just "will the Fed hike rates?"
The new question became:
👉 Is the US economy clearly cooling down?
Once recession fears rise, risk appetite declines, and high-volatility assets like stocks and crypto may face simultaneous pressure. Recently, many people have been asking: Is the NIGHT token about to take off? It doubled in a week, got listed on Binance, and Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson personally endorsed it, saying it will be "bigger than Zcash." Sounds very attractive. But before you put your money in, you need to understand one thing: NIGHT's rise is based on expectations, not performance. It is one of the most noteworthy early-stage public chain tokens recently, but it could also be the one with the most volatile fluctuations in your account. 1. What exactly is NIGHT? NIGHT is the native token of the Midnight network. Midnight is not another public chain competing with ETH on TPS; its label is very clear: privacy + compliance + smart contracts. It is backed by the Cardano ecosystem, with Charles Hoskinson as a key figure. The technical route uses zero-knowledge proofs (ZK), but it is not an anonymous coin like Monero that hides everything; instead, it implements selective disclosure: • Business data can be kept confidential; • When regulators need to investigate, proof can be provided; • Fund flows are traceable at the NIGHT layer, while sensitive data is kept confidential at the application layer. This positioning is very clever because pure anonymous coins face huge compliance challenges, whereas Midnight aims for "privacy usable by institutions." The dual-token design is the essence. NIGHT is not just for paying gas; it is paired with another token called DUS After BTC dropped from 87200, I actually don't want to be bearish here anymore. Last night was quite intense; BTC peaked at 87238, then dropped all the way to around 84000, and now it's hovering back around 84500. Most bulls who chased the breakout earlier have basically been shaken out, but the bears chasing in now are also in an uncomfortable position.
Currently, I'm still leaning bullish. For BTC short-term, I’m watching 84600–84700 first. If it stabilizes above that, I’ll consider going long again, with the first target at 85000, then looking at 85500. Below 84300 is my defensive level; if it breaks, I’ll wait for a new opportunity around 84000.
ETH dropped from 2778 to 2651 this round, now back near 2680. At this level, I prefer to wait for confirmation at 2690; if it holds, I’ll look at 2700, 2720, and if stronger, test 2740. If 2650 is broken again, I’ll pause my long positions for now.
SOL fell from 123.79 to around 119 and has been consolidating for quite a while. If it closes back above 119.5, I’ll continue to watch 120 and 121; if 118.7 is lost, I’ll wait to buy again near 118 or even 117.
What annoys me most in this market is chasing the candlesticks. When it rose to 87200, a bunch of people were shouting 90000; when it dropped to 84000, they started shouting waterfall. Damn, the market loves to punish these flip-floppers. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 🔥 Nonfarm payrolls surprise, BTC surges to 87,000, but December rate hike probability still over 60%
September added only 29,000 jobs, about one-third of expectations, October no rate hike probability rises to 86%
Is the good news really here, or is it just a delay in the rate hike?
📰 What happened:
· September nonfarm added 29,000 jobs (expected 90,000), unemployment rate 4.2% (expected 4.1%), August employment revised down to 133,000
· Probability of maintaining rates at October meeting rose from 72% to 86%
· Probability of a 25 basis point hike in December about 63% to 64%, barely dropped after data release
📊 Market reaction:
· Nasdaq at one point rose over 1.3%, Nvidia hit an all-time high
· Gold and silver rose over 1%
· BTC briefly broke through 87,000, up over 3% intraday
· 10-year US Treasury yield briefly fell nearly 10 basis points, then rebounded
🔄 For BTC: Nonfarm data ruled out "October rate hike," driving the surge; but December hike expectations remain, US Treasury yields rebounded, BTC then gave back gains.
🎯 Focus next week: Whether the 10-year yield can continue to fall. BTC resistance at 87,239, support at 85,000 and 84,017.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ I really don't think $BTC is in that tough of an area.
The problem is late long entries, and too high of leverage on altcoins right now. That's why things "seem" bad. People feel the FOMO so they long the breakouts with high leverage and any significant downside throws them into a frenzy.
Bitcoin has broken above Median ML of a yearly range and I am still focused on looking for that follow through towards Upper Limit of the range. Does it happen right away? Probably not. Reviewed last month's trades, and indeed they were a complete mess, not following the pattern. Started with a rebound on very low volume, doing range arbitrage, and although the three trades based on news didn't lose money and even made some profit, it was clear that I didn't control the little voice in my heart, lacking patience.
Used naked K-lines of different timeframes all at once. Frequently switched targets, trying to apply four different timeframes to different targets, which definitelyAttention everyone, do not go long!
Don't rush into long positions now, don't get carried away just because of good news.
Why am I saying this? Four reasons:
First, last month actually had a lot of negative news.
Before the US nonfarm payrolls, it was very strong at 162,000; the Fed raised interest rates again; 16 officials in the dot plot think more hikes are needed; the crypto bill also didn't pass. Logically, the coin price should have dropped significantly.
But what happened? Bitcoin dropped to 74,900 but didn't go lower, then news came out that the "crypto bill is going to be submitted again," and it shot back up to 87,300.
This means: this doesn't look like pure market behavior, it looks like big players/whales are controlling the market, washing out the shorts.
Second, this October nonfarm payrolls were very weak, only 29,000.
The Middle East is not so tense anymore, PCE didn't explode, Fed officials are speaking softer. All good news, logically it should have surged to 90,000 in one bullish candle.
But the problem is: the price had already risen before the data came out. When the good news really came out, a lot of people chased longs.
What we fear is the old script repeating: after all the good news is out, the price falls, then bad news comes to kill all the long chasers.
Third, since rising from 63,000, most shorts have been wiped out, and the bulls are all on board.
Now the market is roughly 60% long and 40% short, more bulls.
Looking at the liquidation chart:
- At 91,000, shorts were only liquidated by 2.5 billion
- But at 82,600, longs would be liquidated by 3 billion
- At 80,600, 6.5 billion
- Around 76,800, over 10 billion
So I ask you:
If you were a whale, wouldn't you want to pick up that big pile of long money below?
So I think killing downward is more "profitable" than pulling up.
Fourth, a report from Coinbase says Bitcoin's profit-taking scale is the highest of the year.
In the past 30 days, spot demand dropped by 170,000 coins, and futures speculative demand fell from 164,000 coins to 16,000 coins.
To translate:
Everyone is selling at high levels, new money isn't really coming in, and institutions are a bit fearful of highs.
So his conclusion is very firm:
In the next 10 days, don't look long, don't even ease up until October 12.
He looks at these levels for Bitcoin:
82,600 → 80,600 → 78,800 → 75,600 → 68,800 → 63,800
(You originally wrote 826-788-688-638, but actually missed some intermediate stops, meaning a step-by-step drop)
Ethereum and altcoins are the same.
His original words are harsh: When an avalanche happens, no snowflake is innocent ❄️💥
But in the end, he left a glimmer of hope:
When the real crash is over, it's a good opportunity to bottom-fish, and then everyone will fly together.
I'll add a plain statement:
This person isn't analyzing "truth," he's describing the script where whales might be washing out longs.
You can watch, but don't get carried away;
Don't go all-in short just because of a "firmly bearish" call, and don't chase again after 90,000 breaks.
The crypto world loves this:
When bulls are happy, they get slapped; when bears are happy, they get slapped again 😅#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 BTC daily view: Last night, the price surged to 87239 but was immediately pushed down, now settling around 84556. The pattern does not indicate an immediate bearish trend; rather, it shows a high-level stagnation after a sharp rally, entering a digestion and consolidation phase. The daily chart has not yet broken the major trend effectively, but a solid resistance head has formed above. The main characteristic of this stage is high volatility with frequent bull and bear traps, making it suitable to reduce leverage and lower expectations.