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$CHIP perpetual contract 20x short position, opened at 0.06568, current price 0.06202, floating profit +111.44%.
The logic is simple: after a short-term hype spike in CHIP, the heat quickly fades. Small coins are highly controlled, large holders use a pump to distribute chips, and selling pressure is concentrated on the upside. 20x leverage, stop loss at 0.0640.
Fundamental support: the coin's circulating market cap is relatively small, chips are concentrated in the top ten holding addresses, and after the pump, there is a lack of incremental funds to continuously take over, resulting in weak buying momentum.
Trailing take profit moved to 0.0640 to lock in gains. Beware of sudden pump traps in small coins; a single wick can quickly wipe out floating profits. $BTC $ETH $DOT Proposal Core Interpretation: DOT DAO Proposes a New Polkadot Strategy in OpenGov
In a nutshell: Upgrade OpenGov from a simple “treasury spending voting tool” to a unified strategic DAO, aligning the entire ecosystem with three main pillars: user growth, dotUSD native stablecoin, and Polkadot product platform, ending the previous scattered efforts of individual ecosystem projects.
1. Core Goals of the Proposal
Previously, Polkadot OpenGov was more about "projects individually applying for treasury funds, one vote per matter," with dispersed goals among projects. This strategic proposal aims to form a unified long-term roadmap for DOT DAO:
1. User Adoption (User Growth): No longer targeting only developers, but shifting focus to ordinary end users, lowering the usage threshold, addressing Polkadot’s long-standing weakness of "strong technology but weak ordinary user perception";
2. dotUSD as the Ecosystem’s Financial Foundation: Designate dotUSD as the native stable asset of the Polkadot ecosystem, with treasury reserves continuously injecting stablecoins to provide liquidity, ecosystem payments, and treasury budget settlements, eventually becoming the universal settlement currency within the ecosystem;
3. Polkadot Product Platform: Build a unified product layer, packaging Coretime, JAM, cross-chain, staking derivatives (vDOT), and dotUSD into a composable product suite, no longer fragmented protocol components.
Essence: The DAO transforms from a "governing council that allocates funds" into a strategic organization with unified growth goals, prioritizing treasury fund allocation toward these three directions.
2. Narrative Linkage
1. dotUSD: Upgraded from a single stablecoin project to the entire ecosystem’s financial infrastructure. The treasury’s continuous transfer of USDT/USDC reserves is a preparatory move for this strategy;
2. JAM Upgrade: The new strategy is the top-level plan supporting JAM’s launch. JAM provides the computing power layer, dotUSD provides the value layer, and the product platform serves users; the technical layer + financial layer + product layer trio are implemented together;
3. Treasury Stablecoins: The previous 4.06 million stablecoins deposited and the 3.36 million stablecoins pending vote are the strategic funds used to subsidize liquidity, user incentives, and ecosystem project incubation.
3. Positive Logic
✅ Fundamentals: Ecosystem goals converge
Previously, Polkadot’s biggest complaint was fragmented narratives, with parachains fighting independently. This strategy is equivalent to the DAO collectively setting the track, concentrating funds on core tracks, reducing treasury fund waste on scattered low-impact projects.
✅ Financial Closed Loop Formation
dotUSD + vDOT leverage + treasury stable reserves form an internal capital cycle within Polkadot, reducing reliance on external USDT/USDC and enhancing DOT value capture.
✅ Unified Narrative, Clearer External Storytelling: No longer just talking about sharding and cross-chain technology, but directly about "Web3 product platform + native stablecoin," making it easier to attract external capital and users.
4. Objective Risks (Not Just Bullish)
⚠️ 1. This is only a strategic proposal, not a law already implemented; it still requires OpenGov voting approval; DAO governance means community disagreements can modify or even shelve the strategy.
⚠️ 2. Strategic alignment ≠ immediate short-term new user growth; To C product polishing requires a long cycle;
⚠️ 3. Treasury funds are limited; heavy fund allocation to dotUSD and product platform will squeeze funds for other niche parachain projects, causing internal ecosystem competition. #贝森特拟查扣10亿美元伊朗相关加密资产
The leader has something to say
The topic of Besent seizing Iranian crypto assets has already been covered. The enforcement scope has extended from freezing wallets to trading platforms and financial intermediaries, so no repetition.
But there is a new angle worth mentioning in the comments. OFAC has already listed Nobitex and three other exchanges on the sanctions list. Subsequent pressure may extend to platforms providing trading and settlement services. Following this line, compliance reviews will only become stricter.
Directly to the market situation. The long position on Bitcoin at 83,000 is still there, and the short position at 86,500 is also still there, hedging on both sides with light positions. No one-sided bets before the CPI release. Long position stop loss at 81,500, target 86,000. Short position stop loss at 87,500, target 84,500 to 85,000. Whichever direction hits the target first, reduce that side first.
ETF funds are still flowing out, 30-year US Treasury yield at 5.7%, oil prices high, macro pressure not relieved. Sanctions news is a long-term variable, not affecting short-term rhythm. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
Do not chase the rise or kill the fall, set stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive, positions must have stop losses set, good luck.On-Chain Signals: Cost Structure Reveals Key Battle Range
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost draws a core conclusion based on Bitcoin holding cost distribution: with Bitcoin price measured around $83,000, about 53% of holding costs are at higher price ranges, indicating the current price is still below the buy-in cost of over half of holders.
85,000 is the range with the densest cost chips. When the price approaches this historical concentrated buying zone again, some investors may choose to sell to recover costs, creating resistance to the trend. Darkfost believes this level may trigger more concentrated trading activity and is a key point Bitcoin must effectively break through. If Bitcoin breaks through 77,000-$79,000, it could mean weakening support below.
On the downside, support near 74,000 corresponds to the cost base of short-term holders, and the $72,000 to $77,000 range may become a retest area for a larger-scale turning zone.
$82,727 is a previously broken resistance level, where an inverse head and shoulders pattern appeared on the hourly chart. After breaking through, a pullback to the neckline confirmed effective support, forming the technical basis for a short-term rebound.
$ETH $BTC $ZEC #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 BTC falls back to $82,600! Nearly $700 million ETF funds withdrawn in one week, rebound hasn't stabilized yet, selling pressure returns!
The biggest concern about Bitcoin is not how much it has dropped in the short term, but that institutional funds are hesitating as the price falls.
As of October 12, BTC is fluctuating around $82,600. After falling from around $86,000, the rebound has never been able to firmly regain the high level, and short-term bulls are under increasing pressure.
The capital flow is even more worrisome. On October 7 and 8, US spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of about $485 million and $244 million respectively. Although on October 9 there was a net inflow of about $21.1 million, the cumulative net outflow last week was still about $679 million.
One day of inflow is hard to make up for the previous large withdrawals. Whether institutional funds are truly recovering still needs to be verified by subsequent data.
Now, the area around $82,000 is an important observation zone, with rebound pressure above at $83,500–$85,000. If support below is insufficient, the market may continue to be under pressure; if the upper area is retaken, short-term sentiment may improve.
BTC has already returned to $82,600. What to watch next is not just a bullish or bearish call, but whether the buying can truly absorb the selling pressure.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $BTC Today's Trading Plan｜October 12
On Monday, $BTC weakened again. I tend to think it will test downward here once more, forming the second leg of the bottom. The first wave touched support and rebounded but met the weekend. Although there was an upward pull on Sunday that cleared some short liquidity, there was no sufficiently strong bullish candle, so the reversal still lacks confirmation.
Considering that there is liquidation liquidity below 80,000 and the market still needs to digest the impact of Wednesday's CPI, I believe there is a possibility this week of breaking below 80,000, sweeping liquidity, and then quickly recovering.
My focus for adding positions is the reaction after this dip: if the price makes a new low but the indicators show a bullish divergence, and it can quickly recover key levels to form a stop-fall structure, I will consider adding long positions.
On Wednesday (October 14) at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, the US CPI will be released. The key is to observe whether the dip and recovery around the data form an effective second leg.$W's current mark price has risen to 0.024892, with an unrealized profit of 269+%! This wave has directly crushed the shorts, and friends who followed along have seen their accounts take off. The precise entry point with 20x leverage was spot on.
It's not recommended to chase longs around 0.0248 now. For those holding positions, it's advised to lock in 80% of profits and keep the remaining 20% to ride the trend towards previous highs. Those with low cost can treat it as a "zero-cost gamble" for the most stable mindset.
Volatility with 20x leverage remains intense! Those still in the trade must raise their stop loss to avoid giving back the 269% profit. For those who missed out, don't worry—the market always has opportunities. $BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #阿斯麦Q3财报10月14日公布，EUV订单成焦点
Before the U.S. stock market opens on October 14, ASML will release its Q3 2026 earnings. The market currently expects revenue of about €11.66 billion and earnings per share of approximately $12.47. The company’s previous Q3 guidance was revenue between €11 billion and €12 billion, with a gross margin of 55% to 57%. However, more important than the revenue figures are three key variables that could determine the stock price direction.
EUV net orders are core
Quarterly revenue reflects equipment orders placed months or even years ago; in contrast, net orders provide a more forward-looking indication of demand trends. ASML disclosed in July that nearly all EUV equipment orders needed for 2027 have been finalized, and it has already secured a large number of forward EUV orders for 2028. The proportion of EUV in Q3 net orders will directly influence how investors evaluate this earnings report—if EUV orders remain strong, it will further confirm the demand boom driven by AI; if there is a sequential decline, the market may reassess the optimistic narrative that "order visibility extends through 2028."
2027 guidance sets valuation anchor
ASML has raised its full-year revenue guidance twice this year, from €34 billion to €39 billion at the start of the year, to €43 billion to €45 billion in July. Market focus has shifted to 2027 and beyond. Morningstar senior equity analyst Correonero noted that the current stock price already prices in a peak in 2028, assuming limited growth in 2029 to 2030. If this earnings report can provide more visibility on growth prospects for 2029 and even 2030—such as low double-digit sales growth—not only will earnings per share continue to grow, but valuation multiples may also expand. Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating with a €1700 target price, while Bank of America raised its target from €2452 to €2557, citing "higher EUV shipments and higher unit pricing."
Progress on High NA customer commitments
High NA EUV equipment, priced up to $400 million per unit, is ASML’s next-generation growth engine. In September, Samsung and TSMC reversed their stances: Samsung plans to use High NA for mass production in 2028, and TSMC plans to introduce it starting in 2030, forming a trio of full adoption alongside Intel, which is already using the equipment. The industry also plans to shift from 6-inch photomasks to 12-inch versions. ASML CTO Peters stated this new technology can increase High NA machine throughput by 40%. The market will watch whether management discloses more High NA order commitments and if there are signs of customers pulling orders forward.
Risks lie in the China market and valuation tolerance
In the first half of 2026, ASML’s revenue from China reached €2.9 billion, about 16% of total revenue; the CFO expects the full-year share to be about 20%. However, the U.S. is pushing a new round of export control legislation targeting currently sellable DUV machines to China. If Q3 revenue share from China falls below 15%, it would mean the controls are substantially compressing orders. However, Bank of America believes the uncertainty of China export restrictions is "largely priced into the stock." A bigger risk lies in valuation: ASML’s U.S. stock has risen about 67% to 78% this year, with a forward P/E of about 29 to 30 times, leaving almost no margin for operational delays in new system deliveries.
The real test of the Q3 earnings report is not whether revenue meets expectations, but whether EUV orders can prove that the growth story beyond 2028 still holds.Bitcoin’s recovery from $80.4K to $84K squeezed bearish traders hard. Short liquidations surged to $262M within an hour, while shorts made up 65% of total liquidations over 24 hours.
Many traders saw the previous decline as a reason to short every rebound, treating $83K as firm resistance. But when a trade becomes too crowded, a breakout can trigger a sharp squeeze.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#CPIPPIHikeWatch #RussiaUkraineTruceWatch #TSMCOct15Earnings Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
After amplifying orders for XDP and CAP, both buy and sell slippage increased significantly, with the highest simulated slippage for XDP at the 100,000 scale.
$BOME large buy and sell costs rose simultaneously. Simulated buy/sell slippage at the 100,000 scale increased from 0.94%/0.94% to 1.10%/1.05%.
$XDP simulated buy/sell slippage at the 10,000 scale is 0.15%/0.14%, and at 100,000 scale is 0.72%/0.73%.
$CAP simulated buy/sell slippage at the 10,000 scale is 0.13%/0.15%, and at 100,000 scale is 0.70%/0.72%.#Institutions Continue to Position, Why Does BTC Still Face Pressure?
There is no dispute that institutions are buying. Strive spent $169 million to purchase 2,000 bitcoins between September 28 and October 2, raising its total holdings to 29,462 BTC, ranking fifth among publicly listed companies and aiming to reach second place within the year. Morgan Stanley has been continuously increasing its holdings through its spot Bitcoin ETF MSBT, with total holdings rising to 10,639 BTC as of October 10, valued at about $880 million. Robinhood also added $25 million worth of Bitcoin to its balance sheet on October 7.
But the price is still falling. Bitcoin dropped to $80,324 on October 8, down 3.7% for the week, and the total market capitalization of the entire crypto market fell below $2.8 trillion. The divergence between institutional buying and price is not due to a lack of conviction from buyers but because the market’s liquidity base itself is contracting.
The shrinkage of stablecoins is the most underestimated suppressive force.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost pointed out on October 3 that since May this year, the total market cap of stablecoins has shrunk by $14 billion, reflecting a large-scale outflow of funds from the crypto market. Although the market cap has slightly rebounded by about $4 billion since September to around $270 billion, the overall rebound remains weak. Darkfrost clearly stated that to push Bitcoin to new highs, the market still needs larger-scale liquidity support. Stablecoins are the "cash" inside the crypto market; their continuous shrinkage means that even if institutions are buying BTC, the total available ammunition in the market is decreasing. ETF subscription funds go into custody accounts, which does not equal liquidity flowing into exchange pools. When stablecoin market cap cannot recover, any scale of buying is more easily overwhelmed by limited selling pressure.
The derivatives market’s position structure is undergoing a qualitative change.
Funding rates have turned negative. The eight-hour average funding rate for Bitcoin is about -0.0044%, with one major trading platform dropping to about -0.00215%, the lowest level in nine months. This means shorts are paying longs to maintain positions—in normal circumstances, bullish traders pay to maintain long leverage. Meanwhile, Bitcoin futures open interest has dropped to about $52.57 billion, down 3.27% in 24 hours. This combination of "negative funding rate + shrinking open interest" indicates that after leveraged longs were liquidated, there was no equivalent scale of short positions opening to take over, but rather an active decline in overall market leverage participation. Negative funding rates usually mean crowded trades have reversed, possibly signaling a short squeeze or simply confirming a lack of willing leveraged participants to take on risk.
Miners’ selling pressure has stopped but has not turned into buying.
CryptoQuant’s weekly report shows that Bitcoin miner revenue has rebounded 78% from the July low, profitability has improved, and extreme outflows have disappeared. Satoshi-era miners only sold about 600 BTC in September, down 70% from January, with total holdings still close to 590,000 BTC. Large miner addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC saw their total balance drop from about 64,000 BTC in December 2025 to 51,000 BTC in early September, a decline of about 20%, but have since stabilized. Miners are no longer forced to sell, which is a positive structural change. However, the report also points out a missing link: miners have stopped selling but have not started rebuilding BTC holdings. Miners have shifted from "supply sources" to "neutral holders," removing some downward pressure but not creating new upward momentum.
The options market sends a contradictory signal.
Data from 10x Research on October 12 shows Bitcoin’s near-term implied volatility dropped to 33.5%, a five-year low, more than 4 percentage points below realized volatility, making options relatively cheap. Over the past week, option skew dropped nearly 3 percentage points, with traders concentrating on buying put options expiring in October with strike prices of $78,000 and $80,000, with single large trades reaching up to $204 million. 10x Research interprets this as investors overall still holding long positions while actively hedging downside risk through options, not fully turning bearish. This means the mainstream market sentiment is not panic selling but a "hold but buy insurance" defensive stance. This stance itself suppresses spot buying—when investors have hedged risk through options, their urgency to add spot purchases decreases.
The regulatory environment is improving, but the direction of improvement does not directly correlate with price.
On October 5, the SEC and CFTC jointly issued a statement clarifying that Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and four other types of crypto assets are generally not securities. The SEC also approved six 3x leveraged ETFs based on Bitcoin and other assets and proposed new digital asset custody rules allowing investment advisors and regulated funds to custody crypto assets under certain conditions. These developments are structural institutional benefits, but their beneficiaries are more future institutional allocation increments rather than current marginal buying. Regulatory clarity lowers the long-term institutional entry barrier but does not change this week’s capital flow.
Whether the bottom is forming depends on one condition: can the stablecoin market cap recover?
Institutional buying, miners stopping sales, regulatory improvements—these are all real structural positives, but their role is to "reduce downward pressure," not "create upward momentum." The current price suppression is due to the ongoing contraction of liquidity within the crypto market—stablecoin market cap has not effectively rebounded, leverage participation is actively declining, and the options market is substituting hedging for spot buying. These three factors together form a market structure of "buyers have strength but lack ammunition and urgency." When stablecoin market cap begins to grow steadily again, meaning "cash" is flowing back into the market, institutional allocation buying will truly convert into upward price momentum. Until then, Bitcoin is more likely to maintain a pattern of oscillation under pressure rather than a rapid reversal.$SAND perpetual 50x short position, opened at 0.06505, currently at 0.06276, floating profit +176.01%.
The idea is very simple: the top consolidates with extremely low volume, volatility is crushed to the floor, indicating that chips are ready to be distributed. A single high-volume bearish candle smashed the price down from 0.06505, a typical breakdown signal, shorting is favored over longing. 50x leverage, stop loss at 0.067. The trend goes straight down, giving no comfortable exit point, profits take off directly.
At this position, I plan to take half the position off the table first, and move the stop loss of the remaining half to 0.064 to let profits run. If 0.060 breaks down with volume, continue holding; if it doesn't break, close all positions. $SNDK $BTC #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 Right now, the three AI dummies, SanDisk, Micron, and Hynix are all pulling back but we haven't seen the bottom yet. $SPCX not only surged wildly but did so citing space computing power, which is quite absurd.
This might indicate that funds are flowing from "falsifiable AI" to "unfalsifiable AI," meaning the stories on Earth have been told and are hard to continue, so now only space stories can be told.
After Anthropic goes public next month, especially by 2027, the AI sector will definitely shift from focusing on narratives to focusing on profitability. By then, possibly only SPCX will survive the profit-driven shakeout.
There’s also an advantage to this approach: while US stocks, US Treasury bonds, and corporate bonds compete for liquidity, SPCX’s 40 billion bond issuance last week actually rose instead of falling because it was for buying Nvidia chips for Starmind orbital AI satellites and Memphis computing power, sharply contrasting with the sharp drop caused by the corporate bond issuance at its IPO.$BTC Short-term Trading Strategy
Current Price: Around 82640
Trend Judgment: Short-term bearish bias, rebound momentum weakening
Main Direction: Short on rebounds, no chasing shorts for now
Aggressive Entry Range: Short at 82850–82950
Conservative Entry Range: Short at 83150–83250
First Take Profit: 82500
Second Take Profit: 82100
Third Take Profit: 81820
Stop Loss: 83450
Technical Analysis
15 minutes: Price broke below three moving averages, MACD death cross with expanding green bars, accompanied by volume-increasing decline, short-term bears dominate.
1 hour: 84348 surged then fell back, consecutive bearish candles breaking support, MACD bearish momentum strengthening, KDJ entering oversold zone, beware of quick rebounds.
4 hours: Price broke below MA20, KDJ death cross downward, MACD red bars shortening, rebound strength clearly weakening, support near 81820.
Operation Suggestion: Prioritize waiting for rebound to pressure zone before shorting in batches; breaking below 82600 may further test 82100. If price stabilizes above 83250 again, beware of short covering. Strictly follow stop loss to avoid chasing shorts at lows. $ETH $ZEC #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $ACE Resistance Rejection Bearish Pressure Building.
Leverage: 10x Max
Trade Setup: Short
Entry: 0.1890 – 0.1905
SL: 0.1940
TP1: 0.1860
TP2: 0.1835
TP3: 0.1800
Price sharply rejected the 0.19823 high with a strong bearish candle, confirming seller dominance after the spike. As long as price holds below the 0.190–0.191 zone, downside continuation toward prior support looks highly probable.
Sell and Trade $ACE
#CPIPPIHikeWatch $ZEC Damn it! This ZEC rally is making my scalp tingle. Around 1285, it’s as solid as iron, but what about the volume? The volume hasn’t kept up at all. Don’t rush, let the bullets fly a bit. This kind of purely technical, forced move is most likely a manipulation by weak hands washing out positions; the pump is just to unload. Smart money has already quietly reduced their holdings, and you’re still dreaming of breaking 1500? I went short directly at 1285.07, with a stop loss at 1320; if it breaks, I’ll accept it. Follow at your own risk, profits and losses are your responsibility, remember to set a stop loss. If you want to get in, click the token market card below, don’t chase.👇👇👇Lush green profits are truly eye-catching. Shorting $AKE at 20x leverage, from 0.02718 down to 0.02401, with an unrealized gain of 233.25%. This pace is worthy of a hunter-level precision harvest.
AKE was recently pumped hard riding the AI concept wave, but after the hype faded, large on-chain transfers suddenly became active, quietly moving chips toward exchanges. The contract market funding rate remains positive, with longs paying shorts daily—a classic long squeeze scenario. The daily chart broke down, MACD formed a death cross, volume increased without price rising, so the short logic holds up.
With unrealized profits thick enough now, it's recommended to take half off the table first, then move the stop loss on the remaining position up to around 0.025, using profits to chase bigger moves. Small-cap coins can spike anytime, so don’t give back the gains you’ve made.
In trading, you earn money through discipline. You’ve caught the rhythm this round; next is to protect your gains and don’t let the duck in your mouth fly away. $BTC $ETH #PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6% 21:11, $MAGIC perpetual contract 20x short position opened at 0.1369, current price 0.12361, floating profit +194.15%.
Clear logic: On-chain chip movement reveals the main force's distribution intention, large holders continuously offloading after the initial rally, profit-taking concentrated after the heat subsides. The blockchain gaming theme's popularity declines, a large amount of chasing chips are trapped, rebound space is suppressed by layered sell orders, opening shorts to capture this pullback trend accordingly. 20x leverage, stop loss set at 0.1300.
Market fundamentals: Short-term sentiment has cooled down, but chip distribution has just begun.
Trailing take profit raised to 0.1300 to lock in profits; once buy-side support fails, the market will continue to probe lower. $MAGIC $STRK #OpenAI营收口径引争议，AI投资回报受关注 #AI与量子威胁下，区块链安全如何升级？ 📊 Bitcoin is currently stuck in a “powder keg” range, with a large number of leveraged positions buried both above and below, ready to be triggered at any moment.
Looking down, 79657 is a key support line. Once broken, the accumulated long positions will be liquidated collectively, with a liquidation scale as high as 825 million. Looking up, 87487 is a nightmare for shorts; if the price surges there, 534 million worth of short positions will be forcibly closed.
What does this mean? As long as the price hits these two points, it’s very easy to trigger a “pin bar” move—a sudden violent spike or crash that sweeps out all the momentum chasers. 😱
Friends trading with leverage should be especially cautious; this kind of squeeze zone is the easiest to be harvested back and forth. Don’t overleverage, don’t hold positions stubbornly; once the direction breaks out, it’s too late to run. Spot traders should also resist the urge to chase orders; the price swings up and down very fast, and blindly entering the market can easily lead to traps.
With CPI and PPI about to be released, institutions have some positioning, but BTC remains under pressure. The key levels are right in front of us—controlling your actions is more important than anything. 🧘♂️
$BTC $ETH #杠杆风险#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ 2026.10.12
Withdrew 132 yuan today
Total withdrawals 869 yuan
Assets 307 yuan
Today trading $W resulted in a loss of 700 yuan. Assets dropped from 1080 yuan to about 300 yuan. In the afternoon, I traded contracts again and got up to 439 yuan.
It was another day of emotional trading. Holding onto $W positions with losses reaching 70%.
In the end, really worried about liquidation, I set a stop loss.
Actually, when I first opened the short position, I set a 5% stop loss line,
but thinking the price had risen so much, it would definitely pull back, I raised the stop loss line again,
and even added more short positions. Finally, I had no choice but to hold the positions.
In the future, I must remind myself not to hold losing positions,
set stop loss lines and cut losses in time. Only by protecting the principal can I continue to make money 当美国参议院在9月15日以49票对50票否决CLARITY法案的程序性投票时，多数人认为这只是一次普通的立法挫折。但一个月后回看，这次失败正在引发一场全球加密监管格局的深层重构。俄罗斯用行动给出了回应。 10月8日，莫斯科交易所高级总经理鲍里斯·布洛欣正式宣布，MOEX计划于12月1日推出受监管的加密货币交易服务，相关测试已于一周前启动，且交易所现有许可证已涵盖该业务，无需申请额外牌照。交易范围限于比特币、以太坊和USDT，不具备合格投资者身份的用户将面临额度限制。 这不是孤立的商业决策。10月6日，俄罗斯央行发布了首批加密运营商注册名单，将四家机构列入交易所运营商登记册，五家列入数字资产托管机构登记册。Sberbank、VTB、T-Invest Lab、Sistema-Crypto等名字赫然在列。Sberbank作为俄罗斯最大银行，已确认将于12月1日通过Sberbank Online、SberInvestments和SberBusiness三大平台推出首批加密产品。 这一切的法律基础，是9月1日生效的《数字货币与数字权利法》。该法首次为俄罗斯的加密货币流通建立了全面监管框架，涵盖交$SNDK $SKHY $MU Attention! Attention everyone!!
TSMC's earnings report will be released this Thursday, which is a major test for AI demand and will directly affect the valuation of storage stocks like SNDK!
If AI demand falls short of expectations, the storage sector will continue to be under pressure. This is why Sister Xi has consistently maintained a strategy of shorting on rallies—don't rush to bottom-fish!Personal market observation: ETH is expected to follow an ABC three-wave correction structure.
Currently, it is in wave B recovery rebound. If the price fails to break above the 2620 level and faces resistance turning downward, the target for wave C decline is in the 2200‑2100 range.
If it later stabilizes above 2720, this bearish structure will be invalidated. Await market confirmation signals and strictly manage risk.Oil’s drop from $102 is easing the Hormuz war premium and helping Bitcoin recover. Rising oil fueled inflation fears and rate-hike pressure, pushing BTC from $87K to $80.4K. Now, falling oil is supporting a rebound toward $84K despite $681M in weekly Bitcoin ETF outflows.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#CPIPPIHikeWatch #RussiaUkraineTruceWatch #TSMCOct15Earnings If this rally is just lighting up sentiment before the CPI, then what we really should focus on is not whether prices have risen, but who the money is more willing to stay with? Last night BTC and ETH both rebounded, with a clear trigger: crude oil fell back, Middle East tension expectations cooled down, and risk appetite was slightly lifted. But when I watch the market, what concerns me more is that this seems more like the news pushing sentiment higher, not a sudden increase in on-exchange funds. The CPI for this week hasn't been released yet, but the market is already trading on "improved expectations," which easily prices in some of the good news in advance. If the data doesn't cooperate, those chasing highs will suffer first. So I currently lean towards: the short-term looks like a bull trap set for buyers, rather than the bears having already given up. From the perspective of capital preference, BTC and ETH have clearly held up better than most altcoins in this rebound. The real solid support for BTC is around 84500, and for ETH around 2580; as long as these levels aren't broken, it's still considered a correction, not a trend breakdown. But altcoins haven't kept up in resilience, indicating that funds now prefer large-cap, more certain assets rather than taking broad risks. The bullish scenario is: oil prices remain suppressed, CPI doesn't explode, BTC holds 84500, ETH holds 2580, then funds will first return to BTC and ETH, and then gradually pick altcoins with strong narratives. The bearish risk is: the pre-CPI surge is just an exhaustion of sentiment, the data comes out and crushes the market, altcoins fall faster than mainstream coins, and risk appetite contracts again. My own pace is not to chase the sentiment peak before the data, but to wait for key support confirmation before seeing if funds are willing to come back. What’s really worth trading is not last night’s bullish candle, Several consecutive trades, both long and short, are all in rhythm. After shorting $BOME, I go long on $BAT—not predicting direction, just trading according to the market structure. BOME weakens at the top and reverses, BAT confirms a bottom and follows with longs; each trade logic is independent and doesn’t interfere with others. Unlike STRK’s rocket-like surge, BAT moves steadily; a slow push is easier to hold, and 20x leverage feels most comfortable in this trend. Having profited to this point, my mental anchor isn’t how much more it can rise, but how much pullback I can tolerate before exiting. The cost line is nailed down; if it can’t be broken, I hold; if broken, I exit—no hesitation, no fighting. After consecutive gains, the biggest trap is thinking you understand everything; the market specializes in curing that illusion. Every trade is a new start; a profit on the last trade doesn’t guarantee the next one will be right. Control your hands, wait for clear structure before acting; if you haven’t entered yet, don’t chase the highs—wait for a pullback confirmation. $ETH #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 21:09 Filtering noise, $STRK perpetual contract 50x short position opened at 0.11897, current price 0.10248, unrealized profit +693.03%.
Logic: After STRK surged, it dropped with volume breaking key support; daily-level bearish divergence formed, technical pattern and market sentiment weakened simultaneously. After confirming resistance at 0.11897 on the rebound, the short position was opened.
Short-term oversold, testing support near 0.10; trailing take profit raised to 0.108 to lock in profits. If the price stabilizes, reduce position; if it rebounds to 0.112, reassess whether to continue shorting. $BTC $ETH #PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6% #Ledger调查新进展：失窃暂集中单一渠道 Brushing away the still-warm loose soil on the surface of the stratum, what appears is not a collapsed broken wall, but a bronze pedestal mistakenly buried by panic.
On a macro level, Nvidia's fervent narrative has drained peripheral liquidity, much like the Roman Empire once confiscated all gold to the central mint. But flipping through the ledger of the Old Continent, lending protocols have always been the core lifeblood of civilization's metabolism. $AAVE just hit around 165.2, perfectly matching the structural shard stacking of several previous cycles in this stratum.
The 1-hour Bollinger Band lower band formed an extremely solid rammed earth layer at 165.02, while the RSI dipped to 36.7, a typical relic of a mercury thermometer falling below freezing and retail investors stampeding to escape. There is nothing new under the sun; when the masses blindly chase new gods, the foundations of established protocols are often quietly completing their hidden carbon-14 dating. This is by no means a ruin collapse, but the true gold revealed after the silt has settled.
- Target: $AAVE 🟢
- Entry: 164.5 - 165.8
- TP1: 169.2
- TP2: 173.4
- SL: 162.8
The geological profile is clear: every time civilization revives from silence, it is deep within ruins that most believe to be completely weathered.🏛️
#CoinMoveAlertThe last effort of a strong crossbow cannot pierce the Lu gauze.
This $ETH rebound is a bull trap; set up short positions around the 2580 resistance zone. Students entered at the precise point, the market faced no resistance and dropped straight down, taking profits as planned.
The market's illusion fools most people but not those who understand the structure. Capture this move and take profits immediately; those who missed it should not blindly try to bet on a rebound. The bears' home ground is still ongoing. $W $DOGE ETH/USDT short-term bearish bias.
MA5/10/20 and EMA show a bearish alignment, SAR and SuperTrend form overhead resistance, VWAP near 2544 creates short-term pressure.
Capital flow shows a net outflow of 205.75 ETH in 5 minutes, with large and extra-large orders clearly flowing out, daily capital also weak.
The 24-hour low at 2500.96 is a key support; breaking below may accelerate the decline; overhead resistance is dense between 2536-2545 moving averages, with 2579 as the 24h high. In terms of trading, a rebound blocked at 2545-2555 can be lightly shorted, with a stop loss at a break above 2565; if 2500 holds, a short-term long is possible,
but quick entry and exit are required.
$ETH is overall weak and oscillating, control position size and strictly stop losses.Post-holiday foreign capital sell-off + semiconductor weight weakness + rising risk aversion
1. On the first trading day after the Korean stock market holiday, foreign capital concentrated sell-off.
2. The US market sees renewed "AI bubble" talk, combined with controversy over OpenAI revenue reduction, triggering selling pressure on the semiconductor sector; Samsung Electronics and SK海力士 weakened, dragging down the weighted index.
3. Middle East situation, oil prices, and rising US Treasury yields suppress risk appetite; the market is also awaiting this week's CPI, PPI, and TSMC earnings.
$SNDK $SKHYNIX $MU If you want to invest in $XRP, now there's an additional way to buy shares of a company holding the coins.📊
Evernorth (XRP Treasury Company) started trading today on Nasdaq under the ticker XRPN, becoming the first publicly listed XRP treasury company, holding about 473 million XRP. If what you value is these coins, would you hold the coins directly or choose company shares? I would first take a close look at the company before considering the stock route.A rebound is not a reversal. Don't mistake an escape opportunity for a buy signal.
Checking the market tonight: BTC is hovering around 84000, and ETH is fluctuating near 2550.
After the panic sell-off on October 9, the market has only slightly recovered, but this is at best a correction.
Looking at the data, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net outflows for two consecutive days: 485 million and 244 million.
Institutions are withdrawing, retail investors are watching. At this level, everyone should be clear about who is taking the risk.
The big BTC resistance at 83000 is the average cost line for ETFs, with heavy selling pressure accumulated.
To break above, volume must increase and hold; otherwise, it will need to find support lower.
The market now bets a 67% chance that BTC will fall below 80,000 in October.
ETH is weaker; 2550 to 2600 is a major barrier. Several failed attempts might lead to a retest of 2400.
Next, we need to watch CPI and PPI. Once inflation data is out, rate hike expectations will shift again.
I currently have no positions and am watching from the sidelines.
The lesson from my last trapped trade is still fresh; now I’d rather miss out than chase a rally.
My principle is simple: plan defense first, then think about profits.
I will consider entering only after a confirmed pullback.
Are you currently holding no positions waiting for a pullback, or have you already jumped in?👇
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ #PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6% $SNDK $SKHY $MU Didn't they say "Storage is King"? Why is the storage sector collectively falling? When can we bottom-fish?💥💥💥
Because the good news that everyone knows about has already been priced in early🤭🤭
A large number of retail investors rushed in after hearing this story, and the main players took advantage of this consensus to sell off in batches
Many people don't understand that the long-term industry logic is one thing, but short-term capital trading is another!
So, can we bottom-fish after such a big drop?
No! The Bollinger Bands are opening downward now, the downtrend isn't over yet, and there is still a possibility of further short-term decline. We need to watch TSMC's earnings report + the overall sentiment of US tech stocks
If the earnings beat expectations → there will be a rebound, but most likely just a rebound, so don't bet heavilyBitcoin seems to be losing the battle at $83K
Selling pressure on Coinbase continues to increase, and Bitcoin keeps declining
Buyers on Binance simply can't absorb all the selling pressure
It has now fallen below $83K, which is not a good sign
$BTC $MSTR $ETH $PLTR stock price broke through $210
As a client, $ONDS stock also followed with a 5-point increase
Just launched Regna AI, providing governments with fully controlled artificial intelligence, combining open-source models, proprietary task data, and Palantir's operational platform. Ondas is the first client, integrating the shared AI layer into its drones, balloons, and ground robots, enabling use even during communication outages, beginning to consolidate its approximately 19 acquisitions into an autonomous defense platform.$BCH perpetual contract 50x short position, opened at 284.9, current price 279.1, floating profit +101.79%.
After a period of continuous oscillation and surge, the bullish momentum has been exhausted, high-level chips loosened, and the market faces pressure and a pullback.
Market capital flow signals show weak rebounds in mainstream sectors, continuous release of selling pressure above, short positions arranged after rebound resistance, with proper stop-loss planning; beware of violent short-term rebounds and shakeouts under high leverage.
The downtrend has already started, the bearish structure remains intact, pay close attention to rebound resistance levels, and guard against rapid short-term spike rebounds. $SOL $ZEC #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ #PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6% 😮 The message this morning said "those chasing longs start getting cut," and the data fully matched by evening.
BTC dropped from 84,361 back to 82,731, down 0.45% in 24 hours.
Looking at liquidation data, the side getting hit has switched.
In the 24-hour timeframe, shorts account for 56.2%, and the ones squeezed are still the shorts.
Switching to the last 1 hour, longs account for 93.2%.
BTC had 17.89 million liquidated in 1 hour, 98.8% of which were longs.
The "My Legend" 100x short BTC position had margin left at only 150% last night.
Now BTC is back to 82,731, and he bet correctly.
STRK, which led yesterday, is down 8.98% today, MAGIC down 5.11%.
Those chasing highs got buried in one day.
Trading volume is 73.7 billion, amplified by 68.83%.
But the ETF daily net value is still down 3.6 million.
What’s coming in is leverage, not new money.
My view: this is not a start, it’s leverage turnover.
The longs just took over positions that shorts just cut.
CPI comes out Wednesday at 20:30, CME gives October unchanged at 81.7%.
Personal review, not investment advice.
What do you think? Is this a shakeout or the end of the rebound?
$BTC $ETH $STRK #CPIandPPIupcoming, rate hike expectations face a test"Short sellers were liquidated again at dawn, while a whale is repositioning"
In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations totaling $167 million, with shorts accounting for $115 million, or 69.5%, which is 2.2 times the amount of longs. ETH shorts liquidated $26.57 million, BTC shorts liquidated $35.08 million. BTC rose from 80,427 to 84,199, currently at 83,950, up 1.18%; ETH is at 2,546, up 1.66%.
The real trigger for the market is not in the candlestick charts.
Macro side: The U.S. Treasury expanded 20-year and 30-year bond repurchases, causing long-term yields to fall. Kendrick from Standard Chartered bluntly stated that this is exactly the scenario where BTC benefits the most, as the opportunity cost of non-interest-bearing assets decreases.
Policy side: Trump urged Congress to pass the "Clarity Act" and said he plans to make large purchases of BTC. HYPE rose about 20% in 24 hours, and IBIT trading volume surged to more than 4.5 times the 30-day average.
On-chain side: A certain whale sold 410.14 BTC on Hyperliquid, cashing out $34.16 million, then turned around to buy 14,341 ETH worth $36.14 million, at an average price of about 2,520. An Ethereum Foundation-related wallet transferred 4,393 ETH to Kraken, about $11.13 million. The flow of funds from BTC to ETH is becoming increasingly clear.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #AI与量子威胁下，区块链安全如何升级？
Today let's talk about something that sounds distant but is actually very relevant to our wallets.
Vitalik recently spoke out, saying AI accelerates mathematical research and might weaken some lattice-based cryptographic schemes. Ethereum researcher Justin Drake also warned that wallet security defenses need to be planned in advance. But don't panic, no mainstream signature algorithm has been truly broken yet. Quantum computing mainly threatens the elliptic curve signatures used by BTC and ETH now, while AI could speed up finding weaknesses in cryptographic algorithms. These two factors combined are why these big names are raising alarms.
Countermeasures are underway. The US NIST has already released post-quantum cryptography standards, and the White House has launched a fault-tolerant quantum computing competition with up to $215 million in funding. Ethereum is pushing for quantum-resistant signatures and account migration, Coinbase is planning key management upgrades, and the Bitcoin community is discussing improvement proposals. But most of these are still in development and won't be implemented tomorrow.
What impact will this have?
First, blockchains and wallets will diverge in the future.
Second, migrating historical addresses is a huge project. Early Bitcoin addresses with exposed public keys, if migrated on a large scale, will definitely cause market tension, and some might exploit this for speculation. But in the short term, this has no direct effect on price; macro liquidity still rules.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH #Institutions Keep Positioning, Why Is BTC Still Under Pressure?
🔥Institutions keep buying, BTC keeps falling, so who is actually dumping?
Some ask, Saylor posts charts daily, Strive hints at increasing holdings, ETFs occasionally see inflows, institutions are clearly positioning, so why has BTC fallen below 84,000?
Actually, it's not contradictory; three reasons are weighing it down.
First, macro liquidity drain is too severe. US Treasury yields at 5.6%, risk-free interest income just by holding, off-exchange funds have no incentive to take risks. No fresh capital in crypto, institutional dollar-cost averaging is just a drop in the bucket.
Second, tax season selling pressure. Deadline is October 15, big holders need to sell coins to raise cash for taxes. Institutions buy, big holders sell—who has the upper hand? Just look at the candlesticks.
Third, on-exchange leverage mutual liquidation. Retail traders have a high long-to-short ratio, each aggressively opening longs, while market makers wait to trigger reverse spikes. Once a key level breaks, cascading liquidations happen, price drops are inevitable.
In short, institutional positioning is long-term, macro and tax selling pressure is short-term. Short-term pressure outweighs long-term, that's the current market.
In terms of strategy, don't overcomplicate: hold your spot positions firmly, avoid contracts, manage your USDT carefully. Wait for this tax and panic clearing to finish, for the market to carve a real bottom, then go bargain hunting.
Who do you think is dumping, institutions or retail? Let's discuss in the comments👇$BTC "A few bullish candles can't change the trend"
$BTC and $ETH just bounced a bit, and the circle of friends is already shouting bull market again. Don't get excited yet; bullish candles don't equal a reversal. Right now, it looks more like a technical rebound after a sharp drop.
The Fed not continuing to raise rates doesn't mean easing is coming. High interest rates remain, and the knife over risk assets hasn't been removed. The funding situation is more honest: at the start of October, BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw a combined outflow of over $1.2 billion, and on October 7, BTC ETFs alone had nearly $500 million outflow in a single day. Institutions are still withdrawing; prices bounce, but the money hasn't returned.
So don't mistake the rebound for a new start. Next, watch two things: whether funds can flow back and whether key resistance can be taken with volume. Until confirmed, don't chase the rally or bottom fish.
Trading relies not on shouting orders but on trial and error, review, and correction. Admit mistakes, don't get arrogant when right. Protect your principal, stay patient, and wait if the opportunity hasn't come. Survive first, then there will be the next round.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ #OKX以250亿美元估值完成战略融资
This is only personal observation and does not constitute investment advice.October 12 Evening Session｜OKX Spot 21:06 (Beijing, USDT)
Intraday surged then retreated, all three coins fell back below the 1-hour 20 MA, daily 20 MA still suppressing.
BTC 82,751 (24h -0.40%), reclaimed 4-hour MA at 83,122, next target 83,697; if it loses 82,647, watch for a retest of 82,277.
ETH 2,532 (+1.12%), back above 2,547 looking at 2,557; if it breaks below 2,520, watch 4-hour MA at 2,513.
ZEC 1,285 (+4.39%), returned to 1,292 looking at 1,315; if it loses 1,277, watch 1,264.
The last 3 closed 1-hour K-line volumes were 38%, 43%, 110% of the previous 3 respectively (for the three coins in order), caution needed as ZEC's incremental volume declines.
Farside: 10/5–9 BTC/ETH ETF net outflows of 678.9M/542.2M USD; 10/12 data not fully out yet, don't treat zero position as zero flow.
Tonight at 21:30 US stock market opens normally, bond market closed for holiday, watch volume and price after open; BLS: CPI/PPI Beijing time 10/14, 15 at 20:30 release.
I hold 10x perpetual longs on all three coins, attached new ETH card at 21:03. Long position but guarding against downside, just recording the market.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC, $ETH, and $OP can represent three different perspectives: BTC anchors the market cycle, ETH reflects the overall capital flow in the crypto ecosystem, and OP shows the user and capital expansion speed of the Optimistic Rollup L2 ecosystem. Observing these three coins together provides a better judgment of whether the OP-based Layer 2 network has formed a sustained trend than simply watching the price movements of a single coin.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
#阿斯麦Q3财报10月14日公布，EUV订单成焦点 Recently, I've seen quite a few old coins still worth following, and $PYTH is one of them, performing very well!
There is still a chance for a pullback. On October 8th, Pyth officially announced a new mechanism where the DAO will use 100% of the revenue from the product to buy PYTH. The annualized recurring revenue for September has already reached $11.5 million, with a quarter-over-quarter growth of 86%.
After this positive news, the price rose significantly, but the main upward trend hasn't truly started yet!
The reason for optimism is simple: the oracle itself is an important infrastructure for on-chain finance. If institutions, trading platforms, and prediction markets continue to use it, there is room for revenue growth. The revenue buyback mechanism also adds a new demand logic for the token.
Additionally, the current EMA5 is approximately 0.0814, EMA30 is about 0.0800, and the short-term moving averages have formed a bullish structure, so the price has been maintaining above 0.08, indicating a relatively strong trend.
Observe short-term support between 0.083 and 0.085,
Consider scaling in between 0.078 and 0.080,
Use 0.073 to 0.076 as a deep pullback accumulation zone.
If there is no pullback and volume breaks through 0.0907 to 0.091 and holds, you can follow the momentum to buy some.
A break above 0.091 signals acceleration, while a drop below 0.08 requires reevaluation.
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ @OKX中文 Good evening, the direction is clear. BTC stands above 84000, ETH at 2544, SOL at 112, and the US stock market opened without losing momentum, holding at 83500. Today's movement is very healthy: tested 84300 in the morning and pulled back, retested 83500 in the afternoon and consolidated for a long time, then pushed up again with volume in the evening. First testing the market, then confirming, and finally pushing up—a typical breakout rhythm. Now we only need the closing price; if it closes around 84000 tonight, the box that has been sideways for four days will be considered an upward breakout. The first target is 85000, which was the starting point of last week's sharp drop. The first time it reaches this level, a pullback is highly probable. If volume breaks through 85000 and then pulls back to confirm, we can talk about 87000; if it falls back below 83500 and closes there in the late night, it will still be treated as a false breakout. In terms of operations, continue holding spot positions; do not chase immediately after the breakout. Wait for two opportunities: a low-volume pullback to 83500 without breaking, or a volume breakout above 85000 followed by a pullback to confirm. Keep buy orders at 80000 and 78000; although the probability of using them in the short term is decreasing, the discipline is to keep them intact. ETH continues to lead the rally; let the profits run on what you hold. Tonight, just watch the closing price; if it stabilizes at 84000, tomorrow is worth looking forward to. But I think everyone shouldn't just focus on the absolute CPI numbers
What really determines short-term price movements
is the gap between the released value and market expectations
Good data doesn't necessarily mean a rise
Bad data doesn't necessarily mean a fall
If the positive news has already been priced in by the market
the actual data release might even trigger a sell-off
PPI can help assess whether upstream cost pressures have eased
So don't rush to guess the direction this week
Especially don't use high leverage to bet big before the data release
$BTC The overall market rebound is blocked and remains bearish, $BOME follows the trend to open a downward space, entering a 20x short position at 0.0011469, with unrealized gains expanding to 438.57%.
The price has reached 0.0008954, the technical pattern leans bearish, patiently waiting for the trend to complete.
In times of huge profits, maintaining rationality is essential; a 20x high leverage position can cause severe pain with even a slight rebound. The stop-loss has been tightened, calmly observing market fluctuations to protect profits. $BTC $ZEC Recently, Bit Langlang's trading system has once again attracted attention. It is rumored online that he started with 956U and eventually reached a capital scale of tens of millions, with ten trades possibly losing six of them. The profit figures still lack complete account record verification, but his trading approach indeed has aspects worth studying. First, a true expert doesn't look for opportunities every day but waits for the market to enter the right phase. Use 4-hour charts to judge the trend, 1-hour charts to find key structures, and 15-minute charts for precise entries. The focus is not on chasing coins that have already surged but on finding the first breakout after consolidation and the second launch after a pullback and reorganization. Second, the so-called "catching the needle" is not about buying at the bottom just because you see a long lower shadow. The market breaks below the previous low, sweeps stop losses, then quickly recovers key support. This kind of false breakdown and liquidity recovery structure is worth further observation. But the needle itself is not a buy signal; you still need to confirm the structure and set a clear stop loss. Third, a 40% win rate can still achieve positive returns. Assuming an average profit of 2.2R and an average loss of 1R: 40% × 2.2 − 60% × 1 = +0.28R Even if six out of ten trades lose, theoretically there is still a positive expectation. Of course, this does not account for fees and slippage. Fourth, capital management is more important than entry technique. The most dangerous thing is not making one wrong market call but losing the principal to continue trading after consecutive stop losses. My judgment is: what is truly worth learning is not the "956U get-rich-quick" story but four words—wait, confirm, stop loss, take profit. Capture the early stage of the trend and control the cost of each mistake ETH Analysis in the Last Hour: Foundation-Linked Wallet Just Transferred Out $11.13 Million
An easily overlooked on-chain action: just a few hours ago, 2 Ethereum Foundation-linked wallets transferred 4,393 ETH to Kraken, valued at $11.13 million. These wallets received 59,800 ETH from the Foundation 10 years ago and have been gradually selling at an average price of $658 over the past decade.
What has changed? The transfer pace of Foundation-linked wallets is accelerating, while ETFs saw a net outflow of $542 million last week, with BlackRock's ETHA alone withdrawing $477 million.
Why is this worth attention? The price rebounded from 2,496 to around 2,553, with $42.42 million liquidated on short positions in 24 hours, 2.8 times that of longs. On one side, old coins are being sold; on the other, shorts are being forced to cover.
Which observation is more supported? Binance's ETH contract holdings have risen to 49%, a new high since 2023, indicating leveraged funds are concentrating on leading platforms. The 2490 to 2500 range marks the starting point of this rebound and the bottom line for bulls.
Next thing to watch: Will the selling pace at the $658 average price by Foundation-linked wallets over the past decade accelerate before the CPI release? $ETH