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Nonfarm payrolls released, September added only 29,000, far below the expected 90,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Employment is indeed cooling down, but does this mean the Fed will immediately open the rate cut channel? 🤔
Not necessarily. Rate cut trades still depend on inflation stickiness, financial conditions, and policy wording. Currently, US Treasury yields remain high, the dollar hasn't weakened significantly, and the market hasn't fully bet on "weak jobs = immediate easing." The first wave of manual entries is complete. Current exposure: 1/8 of the total planned position. There are still two more waves planned. 🔹 Wave 2 If the market remains at current levels or improves, the second wave could be executed Sunday–Monday, with the position size doubling. 🔹 Wave 3 After Wave 2, if BTC continues showing a relatively strong and steady uptrend for roughly one week, the third wave could be executed, doubling the position again. For now, the recent correction has shown reNonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, versus an expected 84,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%, and wages also declining. Normally, this would be bullish, cooling rate hike expectations and pushing risk assets higher. However, ironically, it was the long positions that got liquidated.
There are three layers to this.
First layer: buying the expectation, selling the fact. Before the data release, the market had already priced in weak nonfarm payrolls and no rate hike in October.I’ll admit it — the volume got a little crazy last night, and Ethereum eventually dropped in waterfall fashion. 😭 Yesterday afternoon, ETH ripped higher and wiped out a wave of shorts. Then came the night session… another sharp move down, taking out both sides of the market. Longs got hit. Shorts got shaken. Nobody got an easy ride. ☠️ I kept my existing short position, but I didn’t dare add another short around $2,750. In the end, ETH dropped nearly $40 in that waterfall move. Not exactly a maDamn, just saw the data on TRUMP, it's fucking disgusting. The team wallet transferred 81.87 million TRUMP tokens in 8 months, average price 3.04, directly dumping them on Binance and OKX, cashing out 249 million USD. This is outright robbery.
What's even more outrageous is that out of a total of 800 million tokens, the team holds 80%, and retail investors only 20%. They still hold 718 million tokens, worth 1.49 billion.
The Trump family's greed is uglier than a manipulative whale. Retail investors are still shouting MAGA, while they have already cashed out over 200 million USD. You think it's faith, but they see you as an ATM.
Don't touch TRUMP, this kind of coin is just giving them money. No matter how much the market rises, I won't buy a single share of this.Nonfarm payrolls across the board missed expectations, but Bitcoin rallied against the trend: rate cut trades reignited
The US September nonfarm payroll data delivered a "broad miss" — only 29,000 new jobs added, less than a third of the expected 90,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, average hourly earnings growth slowed to 3%, and the private sector was also weak. The cooling signals in the labor market are very clear now.
Why did Bitcoin rise despite weak employment data? 🇺🇸 On October 2nd yesterday, the Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA) officially sued the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), challenging the OCC's legal authority to grant national trust bank charters to crypto companies.
Prior to this, the OCC had approved or conditionally approved trust bank charters for crypto companies including Coinbase and Circle.
In fact, ICBA had previously submitted objections to trust bank charter applications from crypto companies like ZeroHash,
so this lawsuit is not a sudden event but a continuation of the ongoing struggle between traditional banking and crypto over bank charters and regulatory boundaries.
It is clear that crypto is becoming increasingly integrated into the U.S. financial system, so could the OCC's charter system become an important gateway for crypto to enter the U.S. financial infrastructure? $BTC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% NEAR fund recovery, the next page is even more worth seeing
Seeing “all $3.8 million returned” brings a sigh of relief. The head of NEAR Intents stated in a public update on October 2 that the stolen funds have been fully returned, the team will stop the investigation, and called for issues to be reported through the bug bounty program.
Looking back at the timeline: on October 1, the team disclosed the security incident with an initial loss of about $3.8 million and promised full compensation. Now the “promise of compensation” has moved to “announcement of recovery,” which is substantial progress, but these two messages should not be confused as happening at the same time.
What I care more about in the follow-up review is clarifying: how the problem was discovered, what was fixed, and which parts underwent re-inspection. The money is back, but the service interruption causing user wait times and uncertainty also deserves serious documentation.
This news reminds me that when using cross-chain products, a simple step on the interface may involve multiple processes behind the scenes. Simple operation is good, but if something goes wrong, clearly explaining the process is equally important.
My view is that the recovery result is commendable; long-term trust still depends on transparent explanations and ongoing operational accumulation. Following this matter, what I want to continue seeing is the quality of the review, not just celebration posters.
#NEAR #OnChainSecurity #CryptoThe non-farm payrolls are finally out, and this time the numbers are clearly weaker than expected. The US added just 29,000 non-farm jobs in September, far below the market’s previous expectation of around 90,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate climbed from 4.1% to 4.2%. At first glance, it may seem like this gives the Federal Reserve more room to cut rates. But I wouldn’t jump to that conclusion just yet. The current market environment is more complicated than simply saying, “Weak jobs$WLD
Can the counter-trend gains be maintained until the next pullback?
The 24-hour price range observed this morning was 0.511—0.588, with a trading volume of approximately 39.98 million USDT.
The morning window saw a rise of about 10%, outperforming mainstream coins. Relative strength is established, but the long-term trend still requires pullback support for validation.
I will watch whether the volume increases to break above 0.588 and then holds on the pullback; if this structure appears, it will increase confidence in continuation. The downside risk is insufficient support and failed recovery; if it falls below 0.511 and the rebound cannot reclaim it, the outlook will be downgraded. The above boundaries are from the morning window, and subsequent market changes need to be rechecked.DOGE has reached another significant milestone!
The compliant US market has started to offer real $DOGE perpetual contracts.
Kalshi has launched DOGE perpetual futures, allowing US users to participate in DOGE leveraged trading in a CFTC-regulated market. Unlike traditional futures with expiration dates, perpetual contracts have no fixed expiry and can continuously track DOGE price fluctuations. (Kalshi News)
What’s even more noteworthy:
① DOGEUSD_RTI from CF Benchmarks is used as the price reference;
② Supports 24/7 trading;
③ This is the first compliant DOGE perpetual trading channel in the US market;$BTC didn't hold the 84.5K low and a little long flush was triggered.
We discussed this yesterday, and now we're probably seeing some flatlining this Saturday with some potential movement on Sunday.
I'm not positioning during the weekend, but I'm already looking at scenario's on Bitcoin for next week.
This drop to the downside left two big gaps, so orders probably need to be filled there before a potential bigger drop.
So if we test the 85.7K-86.7K region before testing 82K$AXS Damn it! This AXS market just made me laugh, the resistance above 1.2235 is so tight, is the manipulator playing a shakeout here? 🎯
Checked the candlesticks, volume is shrinking like winter, each rebound is weaker than the last, the 1.22 level keeps getting tested but can't break through, a typical bull trap for distribution. It's purely a battle of funds, no news at all, just technicals speaking — got it?
Hunter suggests shorting directly at the current price 1.2235, stop loss at 1.25, first target at 1.15, if broken then 1.10. Don't chase highs or catch bottoms, this kind of manipulative market requires following the manipulator's direction to ambush.
Copy trades voluntarily, profits and losses at your own risk. 👇👇👇$BTC My mathematical calculations point to $87K being the top: ( See quoted post ).
But as you know, I don’t rely on just one type of analysis.
Even though I used the Wyckoff strategy several years ago, I decided to apply it again — this time to Bitcoin’s 4H chart.
When I compare the current structure with Wyckoff Distribution #2, the similarities are interesting:
Phase A → Phase B → UT/UTAD → Phase D → LPSY → SOW → Phase E
The move toward $87K fits the potential UT/UTAD area. Below is a revised version that reads more like a financial news flash + market analysis in Chinese, with tighter logic and higher information density:
Writing
🚨 Nonfarm payrolls data severely missed expectations, yet BTC experienced a "bullish news turning bearish" reaction!
US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the market expectation of 84,000; unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and wage growth also cooled down.
On the surface, this is a clearly weak employment report: rate hike expectations eased, liquidity pressure theoretically relieved, and risk assets should have benefited.
But the actual market movement was completely opposite—BTC surged then quickly retreated, with bulls becoming the main liquidation targets.
Why?
① "Buy the rumor, sell the fact"—positive expectations were priced in early
Before the nonfarm data release, the market had already bet on weaker employment and a decline in October rate hike expectations, pushing BTC from around $84,000 up to above $87,000.
In other words, some of the positive news was priced in ahead of time.
When the data actually landed, funds chose to take profits, turning the good news into a trigger for short-term selling.
② Data was too poor, sparking concerns over a "recession trade"
Employment gains under 30,000, combined with downward revisions to previous data and rising unemployment, shifted market focus beyond just "will the Fed hike rates?"
The new question became:
👉 Is the US economy clearly cooling down?
Once recession fears rise, risk appetite declines, and high-volatility assets like stocks and crypto may face simultaneous pressure. Recently, many people have been asking: Is the NIGHT token about to take off? It doubled in a week, got listed on Binance, and Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson personally endorsed it, saying it will be "bigger than Zcash." Sounds very attractive. But before you put your money in, you need to understand one thing: NIGHT's rise is based on expectations, not performance. It is one of the most noteworthy early-stage public chain tokens recently, but it could also be the one with the most volatile fluctuations in your account. 1. What exactly is NIGHT? NIGHT is the native token of the Midnight network. Midnight is not another public chain competing with ETH on TPS; its label is very clear: privacy + compliance + smart contracts. It is backed by the Cardano ecosystem, with Charles Hoskinson as a key figure. The technical route uses zero-knowledge proofs (ZK), but it is not an anonymous coin like Monero that hides everything; instead, it implements selective disclosure: • Business data can be kept confidential; • When regulators need to investigate, proof can be provided; • Fund flows are traceable at the NIGHT layer, while sensitive data is kept confidential at the application layer. This positioning is very clever because pure anonymous coins face huge compliance challenges, whereas Midnight aims for "privacy usable by institutions." The dual-token design is the essence. NIGHT is not just for paying gas; it is paired with another token called DUS After BTC dropped from 87200, I actually don't want to be bearish here anymore. Last night was quite intense; BTC peaked at 87238, then dropped all the way to around 84000, and now it's hovering back around 84500. Most bulls who chased the breakout earlier have basically been shaken out, but the bears chasing in now are also in an uncomfortable position.
Currently, I'm still leaning bullish. For BTC short-term, I’m watching 84600–84700 first. If it stabilizes above that, I’ll consider going long again, with the first target at 85000, then looking at 85500. Below 84300 is my defensive level; if it breaks, I’ll wait for a new opportunity around 84000.
ETH dropped from 2778 to 2651 this round, now back near 2680. At this level, I prefer to wait for confirmation at 2690; if it holds, I’ll look at 2700, 2720, and if stronger, test 2740. If 2650 is broken again, I’ll pause my long positions for now.
SOL fell from 123.79 to around 119 and has been consolidating for quite a while. If it closes back above 119.5, I’ll continue to watch 120 and 121; if 118.7 is lost, I’ll wait to buy again near 118 or even 117.
What annoys me most in this market is chasing the candlesticks. When it rose to 87200, a bunch of people were shouting 90000; when it dropped to 84000, they started shouting waterfall. Damn, the market loves to punish these flip-floppers. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 🔥 Nonfarm payrolls surprise, BTC surges to 87,000, but December rate hike probability still over 60%
September added only 29,000 jobs, about one-third of expectations, October no rate hike probability rises to 86%
Is the good news really here, or is it just a delay in the rate hike?
📰 What happened:
· September nonfarm added 29,000 jobs (expected 90,000), unemployment rate 4.2% (expected 4.1%), August employment revised down to 133,000
· Probability of maintaining rates at October meeting rose from 72% to 86%
· Probability of a 25 basis point hike in December about 63% to 64%, barely dropped after data release
📊 Market reaction:
· Nasdaq at one point rose over 1.3%, Nvidia hit an all-time high
· Gold and silver rose over 1%
· BTC briefly broke through 87,000, up over 3% intraday
· 10-year US Treasury yield briefly fell nearly 10 basis points, then rebounded
🔄 For BTC: Nonfarm data ruled out "October rate hike," driving the surge; but December hike expectations remain, US Treasury yields rebounded, BTC then gave back gains.
🎯 Focus next week: Whether the 10-year yield can continue to fall. BTC resistance at 87,239, support at 85,000 and 84,017.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ I really don't think $BTC is in that tough of an area.
The problem is late long entries, and too high of leverage on altcoins right now. That's why things "seem" bad. People feel the FOMO so they long the breakouts with high leverage and any significant downside throws them into a frenzy.
Bitcoin has broken above Median ML of a yearly range and I am still focused on looking for that follow through towards Upper Limit of the range. Does it happen right away? Probably not. Reviewed last month's trades, and indeed they were a complete mess, not following the pattern. Started with a rebound on very low volume, doing range arbitrage, and although the three trades based on news didn't lose money and even made some profit, it was clear that I didn't control the little voice in my heart, lacking patience.
Used naked K-lines of different timeframes all at once. Frequently switched targets, trying to apply four different timeframes to different targets, which definitelyAttention everyone, do not go long!
Don't rush into long positions now, don't get carried away just because of good news.
Why am I saying this? Four reasons:
First, last month actually had a lot of negative news.
Before the US nonfarm payrolls, it was very strong at 162,000; the Fed raised interest rates again; 16 officials in the dot plot think more hikes are needed; the crypto bill also didn't pass. Logically, the coin price should have dropped significantly.
But what happened? Bitcoin dropped to 74,900 but didn't go lower, then news came out that the "crypto bill is going to be submitted again," and it shot back up to 87,300.
This means: this doesn't look like pure market behavior, it looks like big players/whales are controlling the market, washing out the shorts.
Second, this October nonfarm payrolls were very weak, only 29,000.
The Middle East is not so tense anymore, PCE didn't explode, Fed officials are speaking softer. All good news, logically it should have surged to 90,000 in one bullish candle.
But the problem is: the price had already risen before the data came out. When the good news really came out, a lot of people chased longs.
What we fear is the old script repeating: after all the good news is out, the price falls, then bad news comes to kill all the long chasers.
Third, since rising from 63,000, most shorts have been wiped out, and the bulls are all on board.
Now the market is roughly 60% long and 40% short, more bulls.
Looking at the liquidation chart:
- At 91,000, shorts were only liquidated by 2.5 billion
- But at 82,600, longs would be liquidated by 3 billion
- At 80,600, 6.5 billion
- Around 76,800, over 10 billion
So I ask you:
If you were a whale, wouldn't you want to pick up that big pile of long money below?
So I think killing downward is more "profitable" than pulling up.
Fourth, a report from Coinbase says Bitcoin's profit-taking scale is the highest of the year.
In the past 30 days, spot demand dropped by 170,000 coins, and futures speculative demand fell from 164,000 coins to 16,000 coins.
To translate:
Everyone is selling at high levels, new money isn't really coming in, and institutions are a bit fearful of highs.
So his conclusion is very firm:
In the next 10 days, don't look long, don't even ease up until October 12.
He looks at these levels for Bitcoin:
82,600 → 80,600 → 78,800 → 75,600 → 68,800 → 63,800
(You originally wrote 826-788-688-638, but actually missed some intermediate stops, meaning a step-by-step drop)
Ethereum and altcoins are the same.
His original words are harsh: When an avalanche happens, no snowflake is innocent ❄️💥
But in the end, he left a glimmer of hope:
When the real crash is over, it's a good opportunity to bottom-fish, and then everyone will fly together.
I'll add a plain statement:
This person isn't analyzing "truth," he's describing the script where whales might be washing out longs.
You can watch, but don't get carried away;
Don't go all-in short just because of a "firmly bearish" call, and don't chase again after 90,000 breaks.
The crypto world loves this:
When bulls are happy, they get slapped; when bears are happy, they get slapped again 😅#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 BTC daily view: Last night, the price surged to 87239 but was immediately pushed down, now settling around 84556. The pattern does not indicate an immediate bearish trend; rather, it shows a high-level stagnation after a sharp rally, entering a digestion and consolidation phase. The daily chart has not yet broken the major trend effectively, but a solid resistance head has formed above. The main characteristic of this stage is high volatility with frequent bull and bear traps, making it suitable to reduce leverage and lower expectations. The most frustrating thing about this market: yesterday it was still surging, today it just hung the bulls out to dry. BTC peaked aggressively at 87238 last night, then suddenly dropped back to around 84000. The current screenshot price is 84586. The 15-minute MA5 is at 84601, MA10 at 84612, MA20 at 84613 — the three moving averages are almost glued together, and the price is still below them. I’m not rushing to bottom-fish now; I’ll first see if it can stabilize again between 84600–84700. If it holds, then I’ll look at 85000 and 85500; if it breaks below 84300, I’ll keep an eye on 84000 and 83880.
ETH is also hammered hard, dropping from 2778 straight down to 2651, now at 2679. The good news is MA5 has bounced back near 2681, MA10 at 2680, so it’s sideways consolidating in the short term. I’ll wait for my position until it climbs back above 2685 before considering going long, with targets at 2700; if it breaks 2650, I’ll exit first.
SOL is now at 119.19, after failing to break 123.79 and then falling steadily. MA5 is at 119.29, MA10 at 119.39, MA20 at 119.37; around 119.4 is the immediate resistance. If it breaks above, I’m looking at 120 and 121; if it falls below 118.7, I’ll wait around 118.
This kind of market easily makes people anxious — after a sharp drop, it grinds sideways for hours, looking like it’s stabilizing, you go all in, and damn, it hits you again.
I’m still biased bullish, but not rushing now. BTC needs to reclaim 84700 first It's necessary to review the recent short positions on two small-cap altcoins.
One is $CT, the other is $SOON.
This year's goal is to grow the account from 800U to 8000U.
Currently, the profit is close to 200U.
I am still holding CT.
My initial position was entered at 0.61 and then it dropped.
Currently, the unrealized profit is over 131%, this top was hit quite accurately 😂
I really hope it continues to rise now.
I also want to add more short positions.
---------------
I have already taken profit on SOON.
Profit is over 335%, 1.163 billion U.
Closed position at $0.38.
Now the price below $0.36 means missing out on selling.
But it doesn't matter, securing profits is what counts.
This coin was added to five times cumulatively before finally hitting the top.
In less than 2 days, I gained 335 points.
This is the best part about shorting small-cap altcoins.
Once the price starts to fall, unrealized losses instantly turn into unrealized profits.
The premise is that you have to endure the initial several tens of times price increase.
Next, I will continue to experiment with this small position strategy.
See if I can achieve stable profits.
I will gradually increase the position size later.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 🚨 Retail investors are still desperately waiting to break even, while the TRUMP team's wallet has already transferred out coins worth about $249 million
In the past 8 months, a total of 81.87 million coins have been transferred out
The most heartbreaking part: this only accounts for about 10% of their original chips
The screenshot still shows 718 million coins left, accounting for 71.8% of the total supply, with a book value close to $1.5 billion
📉 Retail investors are watching the K-line, wondering when they will break even
📅 The team is watching the calendar, waiting for the next batch to unlock
At this transfer speed, it’s estimated that by the time Trump’s current term ends, their chips still won’t be fully moved 😂
(Data as of the screenshot, transfer does not equal sold)Last night I was watching $SAND, hesitant to act as I saw the downward trend. The price once dropped to around 0.055, then was sharply pushed back up in the early morning. I tried shorting at this level, thinking there wasn’t much room to go higher.
SAND is the token for the metaverse game The Sandbox, used to buy virtual land, create items, and vote. Daily active users and real consumption have always been average; it relies more on narrative.
At the end of August, there was an incident with the cross-chain bridge where someone exploited a loophole to mint abnormally, actually taking about 14.7 million tokens, roughly equivalent to $700,000. The project team said they would compensate 1:1 from the treasury and would not issue more tokens. South Korean exchanges Upbit, Bithumb, and Coinone issued trading warnings and suspended deposits and withdrawals for six weeks.
On October 2, the three exchanges removed the warnings and resumed deposits and withdrawals. Buyers and shorts both rushed in, pushing the price from around 0.044 to quickly surpass 0.07. Within 24 hours, it surged nearly 80%, with trading volume reaching hundreds of millions of dollars, though market cap remained just over 200 million. The catalyst was not a new product but the removal of the warning label.
The unlocking rally was very strong short-term; sustainability depends on sentiment. Positions and trading volume have expanded, with heavy chasing and profit-taking. I didn’t short at 0.055 because I feared the drop wasn’t over; now that it’s been pulled up, it feels more like an emotional release. There’s no new fundamental growth point, and trust in the bridge hasn’t fully recovered, so I’m shorting here, betting it’s hard to hold steady.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 Damn… last night’s data looked bullish, but it turned into a full-on trap. 😩📉
The U.S. September jobs report came in weak — only 29K jobs added, while unemployment climbed to 4.2%. You’d think that would be good news for crypto, right?
Nope. The market had other plans.
I was still holding my $ARB short after the data dropped. Price bounced from around 0.205 → 0.208, and I got nervous it might break 0.21, so I cut the position around my entry price.
#DailyOrbit I’m considering a head-and-shoulders price pattern scenario (12h timeframe) for $ZEC in which the peak of the right shoulder is around 1,300 USD and the neckline is around 1,050 USD. What do you think about the likelihood of this scenario?It seems that after Lobster Village withdrew a batch of OI, many BSC projects also withdrew quite a lot, probably all from the same group of people. Not sure why they all pulled out.
Browsing Binance Square, I saw a bunch of long positions trapped by $Lobster $BullCome, not just those trapped on BSC but also $ZEC $ZAMA $MOVR. Next time when everyone is shouting loudly, it's better to stay away. You can stay on the sidelines but don't get trapped.$ARB This chain is built using Arbitrum Orbit. After the mainnet launch in September, the daily fees once surged to the million-dollar level (peak media estimates nearly $6 million burned daily on token issuance and trading). According to the protocol, 10% of net income is returned to the Arbitrum ecosystem, and 8% goes into the DAO treasury. This is real cash flow, not just empty promises.
First, the RWA narrative supports it; traditional brokers like Robinhood building their chain on Orbit effectively gives ARB a compliance stamp.
Second, SEC staff guidance states that maintenance buybacks are not considered securities operations, which reduces ARB's securities risk.
Third, real on-chain fee income goes into the treasury; the DAO's revenue reached seven figures in the first half of the year with an exaggeratedly high gross margin.
However, momentum indicators are already quite high, and a significant portion of Robinhood Chain's volume comes from trading bots and launchpads, not genuine equity trading, raising suspicions of artificial inflation. Even more concerning is the supply side, with large unlocks looming, making the token holdings questionable.
Keep an eye on the market sentiment after the September CPI, and whether Robinhood Chain's subsequent fee income can be sustained. Check the unlock calendar.
The narrative is true, but the token holdings are dirty. Don't hold faith for the short term; take some profit and run. #BTC, ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling down capital enthusiasm The gainers list looks lively, but the 7% on TRUMP and BOME is sentiment-driven, while SOL’s 4% is real money. Hold SOL over the weekend, not TRUM$BTC touched 87.2K and dropped back to 84.3K, another rejection at the top of the range, not a confirmed breakout.
Read
• 87.2K = wick, no close above resistance
• 84.3K = back inside the 82.8–87K range
Prediction
BTC won’t reach 90K this week. Expect a retest of 83K. 82.2K will hold.
Plan
• The range floor at 82.8-83.2K
• The range ceiling remains at 86.8–87.2K
• 90K is only on the table after a daily close above 87K
The odds of the Fed holding rates are still positive news. I saw an interesting set of data: about 69.2% of the 2.9 million retail accounts on Polymarket are in a loss position, with total losses around $338.9M🤡. As prediction markets mature, I wonder how many friends are still addicted to this kind of zero-sum game. Don’t talk about arbitrage; most retail traders are simply buying Yes or No. I still recommend that every ordinary trader treat prediction markets as places for information discovery, probability pricing, and event trading, rather than as tools for stable returns $ETH total liquidation across the network is $574 million
Long positions liquidated in 24 hours about $330 million
Short positions liquidated in 24 hours about $250 million
The largest single liquidation is a $BTC position worth $11.7274 million
Many people were hit on both long and short sides. Yesterday morning, some positive news was priced in early, then after the non-farm payrolls were announced at night, there was a slight rally. Everyone thought there would be another strong surge after the non-farm announcement.
But actually, that was not the case. Last night I checked the profit leaderboard for these big players' positions, over 80% were long positions, maybe the load was too heavy to push up.
There is still no clear major direction. Could it be that we have to wait until the midterm elections in November for a direction?
$ETH #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 $BTC — Interesting how the same distances are appearing again.( See quoted post )
2022 structure:
BTC rallied from $34K → $48K.
From $48K to the previous ATH, the remaining distance was roughly 45%.
The projected Wave B was around $52.8K — only another ~10–11% above $48K.
What followed was a major decline into the true cycle bottom.
2026 structure:
BTC rallied from $58K → $87K.
From $87K to the previous ATH, the remaining distance is again roughly 45%. $NVDA #BTC、ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously seeing outflows, cooling capital enthusiasm. News that OpenAI is shifting some computing power demand to Nvidia caused $CEREBRAS stock to plunge nearly 20%, with sharp liquidity divergence within the US AI sector. The clearest signal on trading desks is that capital is losing patience with the story of specialized chips challenging the general-purpose computing ecosystem, accelerating capital return to computing cores with strong ecosystem moats, and the premium logic for specialized architectures is being heavily repriced.
From a cross-market linkage perspective, in an environment of highly concentrated liquidity, the tolerance for high-valuation stories is narrowing. US general-purpose computing leaders continue to accumulate and maintain strength, directly suppressing the valuation space of marginal computing targets. This capital siphoning effect is simultaneously transmitted to the decentralized computing and AI sectors in the crypto market. When leading tech assets monopolize most risk capital, beta rallies cannot fully diffuse, and derivative concept assets lacking mature ecosystems and real delivery capabilities face severe liquidity withdrawal. $BOME 0.0010406, up 7.54%, the madman among small caps. Its market cap is just tens of millions; when the big market moves, a few people can push it up 7%. But this kind of rise has no reference value—the 7% gain is due to the light market cap, not fundamental changes. With Friday night’s liquidity, if you chase in today, you might get stuck by Monday.he ONE 4H chart confirms a classic bear flag continuation structure following the severe sell-off from $0.0052. Immediate rejection near $0.00250 along the descending ceiling on declining corrective volume confirms complete buyer exhaustion against persistent trend pressure. The preferred strategy is to enter a Short position near $0.00250–$0.00251 with a stop-loss parameter above $0.002814, targeting the lower expansion floor at $0.001030 $ONE
#USNFPDataCools
#BTCETHETFOutflows $TRUMP 2.191, up 7.19%, leading the board. Policy coins thrive on macro factors; once the non-farm payroll data of 29,000 came out, rate hike expectations collapsed, and risk appetite surged. 2.1 lingered for a week without breaking through, but today it jumped straight to 2.19. When a coin like this rises 7%, don't chase it—you'll see from its history that it usually gives back half the gains the next day.Trading diary of a novice
Non-farm data is bullish
$BTC still failed to break the previous high of 87500
Retraced to the 82000-85000 consolidation range
Most likely to drop next
If opening a position now
Stop loss must be set above 87500, low risk-reward ratio
Those afraid of missing FOMO are just retail traders
I choose to wait longer for a suitable entry point
Wait for $BTC to break below 82000 and then short with a stop loss at 83000Account Position Divergence Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$RESOLV top accounts are more bullish, but position size is more bearish: account long-short ratio is 1.12, position ratio is 0.77; the difference in the proportion of the two types of long positions has expanded by 4.95 percentage points. There are more bullish accounts, but a long position size advantage has not yet formed.$BTC BTC Bitcoin
BTC is still consolidating today, currently stuck around 84500, down 0.3% in 24 hours, basically unchanged.
A small episode a couple of days ago: US PCE inflation data came out lower than expected, BTC briefly surged to 85500 but failed to hold and was pushed back down. The reason is simple — although inflation dropped, US Treasury yields did not fall accordingly, so funds are not convinced. This is a typical "good news spike followed by a pullback".
Short-term outlook:
- Support below at 83000–83200, repeatedly tested these days, if it holds, no problem;
- Resistance above at 85000–85500, it was pushed back after a recent surge, no volume means no further rise;
- Trading volume has been thin during the National Day holiday, so this kind of market just grinds back and forth.
$ETH ETH Ethereum
ETH softened again today, now at 2668, down 1.28% in 24 hours, weaker than BTC.
The same old problem: the ETH/BTC ratio keeps weakening, funds prefer holding BTC over ETH. The 2700 level has been tested for a week but can’t hold, every time it touches it gets hammered down.
Short-term outlook:
- Support below at 2650, if broken look to 2580;
- Resistance above at 2700–2720;
- Up 12% in 30 days, the mid-term trend is intact, but short-term momentum is weak. If you had to choose, would you pick 100% of your funds with 1x leverage or 1% of your funds with 100x leverage?
My answer is 1% of funds with 100x leverage, because you can free up 99% of your funds to invest in other assets.
Use a small position with high leverage to speculate on short-term market moves, risking a tiny portion of your capital to bet on explosive moves in highly volatile coins like ZEC for short-term big gains; meanwhile, allocate the vast majority of your principal to core holdings like BTC and ETH for medium to long-term holding.
Many people mistakenly go all-in with low leverage, thinking the risk is low, but when faced with events like non-farm payrolls or data releases causing sharp dips, their accounts still suffer huge drawdowns with no room to maneuver.
Leverage itself is not a monster; the danger lies in position size. Limit leverage to a very small proportion, use large positions to hold the base, and small positions to speculate on volatility, balancing offense and defense.$ETH still has too heavy long positions with high leverage, it simply can't be pulled up, no incremental funds are entering the market, and every big whale is fantasizing about catching a big wave, which is very riskyBlast officially announced the cessation of operations, marking the official burst of the L2 bubble driven by high yields and point airdrops in this cycle, and sounding an alarm for the Web3 infrastructure sector.
The project was created by Blur founder Tie Shun, and attracted tens of billions of dollars in TVL before the mainnet launch through its native interest-bearing mechanism and point fission, once becoming a phenomenal L2. However, its prosperity was built on capital games from the start.
Looking back at its development, Blast's growth heavily relied on airdrop incentives, attracting a large number of point farmers. The ecosystem was filled with arbitrage and low-quality projects, lacking real applications that could continuously generate transaction fees. After the 2024 TGE token issuance, the expected realization triggered massive sell pressure, TVL rapidly drained, and on-chain activity sharply declined. Ultimately, the core contradiction emerged: L2 nodes, data availability, and secure operation costs persisted, but on-chain transaction revenue could not cover expenses, causing the project to lose its economic viability and shut down.
This event holds strong reference value for the entire L2 industry. Liquidity attracted by interest and airdrop subsidies is extremely fragile; once subsidies disappear, funds will withdraw. Established L2s like Arbitrum and OP also face ecosystem competition, but they have more real applications and user retention, making them more resilient. Public chains relying solely on gaming and growth tactics are difficult to sustain once the hype fades.
For market sentiment, Blast's shutdown will reduce confidence in emerging L2s and airdrop point projects, and funds will further flow toward ecosystems with real substance. Let me share a detail I only realized today: On the newly launched DogeOS public testnet, all transaction fees are paid in DOGE.
This sentence is worth a fortune.
Before, the harshest criticism of $DOGE was "this coin is useless except for holding." Now? At its application layer, you need it to transfer, to play apps, and to run smart contracts. The more applications, the more consumption, the more rigid the demand. What is this called? This means my dog finally found its place in class.
Last night I explained this to my wife using a grocery shopping analogy: before, the food coupons you hoarded could only wait to appreciate in value; now this coupon can actually be exchanged for meals in the cafeteria, and the cafeteria keeps expanding. This time she understood and said that’s great.
From "only holding" to "must use," a one-word difference, but the fundamentals have completely changed. Many projects dream of finding such a use for their coins, but the dog coin got it effortlessly.
A coin with real utility and a coin that only tells stories are two different species.Don't let your impression of $SOL remain just a Meme. Now, Tokenized Stocks used as collateral on Solana have already surpassed other chains.
According to the latest data from Arrakis: Solana is 3.6 times Ethereum.
The next phase might be the competition over trading, collateralizing, lending, margin trading, and related functions after stocks go on-chain... The prosperity of DeFi will reemerge.
When stocks truly enter DeFi, RWA is not just "a stock mapping on-chain." It can do many things, has many use cases, and will create a wealth effect.State channels are very fast, but they are better suited for repeated transactions among fixed participants.
State channels allow participants to first lock funds into an on-chain contract, then repeatedly exchange signed states off-chain, only using the mainnet when opening, disputing, or closing. They can provide fast, low-cost interactions, especially suitable for frequent payments and game operations between two or a few fixed participants. The limitations are also clear: funds need to be locked in advance, participants must keep backups of the latest state, and timely challenge if the other party submits an old state. Complex applications open to arbitrary users and contracts are difficult to fit entirely into the same channel. For $ETH, state channels are not an outdated technology completely replaced by Rollups, but a tool to solve specific interaction problems. The scaling path does not have to have a single winner; the key is to align security assumptions with use cases. Speed comes from reducing on-chain transactions, not from eliminating final settlement.
Channels also require participants to be able to come online or delegate monitoring during the dispute period; otherwise, they may miss rebutting when the other party submits an old state. Speed is built on continuously saving the latest signatures and timely responses. When participants change frequently, the costs of reopening channels, locking funds, and exiting will offset some of the performance advantages.$BTC has fallen from the high of 87200 to around 84500. This round of decline is mainly due to the liquidation of high-leverage long positions, combined with disruptions from non-farm payroll data and ETF capital outflows. In the short term, it has entered a narrow sideways range with a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. 84000 is the first defense level; if it holds, the price will oscillate between 83K-85K; if broken, it may drop to 80K-82K. $ETH has also pulled back synchronously, hitting a low of 2651, currently at 2680, showing weaker performance than BTC, suppressed by L2 diversion and ETF outflows. Although the bottom has lifted, the rebound is weak. Market sentiment has shifted from panic to hesitation, representing a weak balance after a sharp drop. Sideways movement is a precursor to a trend change. It is not suitable to blindly chase highs for now; wait for a volume breakout or a pullback to key support before taking action. Strict position control is advised as leverage risk is extremely high. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $ZEC 1280 has already been pumped today
The next pump will be 1080