I haven't posted much recently, not because I don't want to, but because there's really nothing worth posting about. The current $ETH trend just confirms what I've been saying, and I don't want to keep repeating the same old points.
I've been saying all along that the safest strategy now is to short on rallies, and so far that has proven very correct. I've made quite a bit of money doing this myself.
Right now, I don't quite understand the market below $ETH. My current judgment is that the overall trend will still be mainly downward, but the decline might not be smooth; it might not be as easy to make money by blindly shorting as before.
Why? I looked at the data, and both bears and bulls are exiting the market, with most of those leaving being large holders, so the proportion of retail investors in the market has increased a lot. I think this situation indicates there will be volatility below, and the amplitude of the fluctuations will be quite large.
Currently, we are in a rebound. I think the rebound won't be small; it might rise to around $2600, or possibly even higher. This kind of big volatile market feels quite tricky, so I want to be conservative during this period to avoid losing too much money.
I still stand by what I said: the market will always have opportunities, but we don't have unlimited capital, so we must seize the certain trends. The previous market phase was quite certain — just blindly shorting worked fine. Now, blindly shorting might not work because this period could see big volatility.
This is my current view. I'm also picking through altcoins to see if there are any good ones to short or any meme coins I can catch a ride on. I still want to make money.
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