OpenAI's annualized revenue is reported to be only about $50 billion, which is $20 billion less than the widely rumored $70 billion. Nvidia dropped nearly 3%, Oracle fell over 5%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 3.39%.
Bitcoin crashed from $83,299 to $80,397, with over 140,000 accounts liquidated within 24 hours, wiping out $647 million in long positions.
The market is in panic. Panic that the AI bubble is about to burst, panic that crypto will collapse along with it.
But Arthur Hayes posted a tweet yesterday that you need to remember: "Money will be printed, positions will rise."
Hayes said that before every super bull market starts, the market must climb over a "wall of worry."
In 2017, the wall was the block size debate—can Bitcoin really be used? In 2020, the wall was the COVID-19 pandemic—the global economy was doomed. In 2023, the wall was the FTX collapse plus aggressive rate hikes by central banks—cryptocurrencies are all scams.
Every time, behind the wall is a wave of money printing. Every time, those who get over it make a fortune.
What is the wall in 2026? Hayes gives a very specific answer: the panic caused by AI and crypto technology.
OpenAI disclosed to investors that as of the end of September, its annualized revenue was close to $50 billion. Previously, the widely reported figure was $70 billion.
A $20 billion difference. A 29% gap.
The market immediately started calculating: what if the "circular financing" chain that AI bears fear breaks? Investors fund OpenAI, OpenAI rents cloud services, cloud providers buy chips, chip giants reinvest in OpenAI. In this chain, OpenAI is the only link charging the end user. Its revenue falling short of expectations means end-user demand cannot cover the massive infrastructure investment.
Nvidia fell, Oracle crashed, CoreWeave plunged 8%.
Most people see OpenAI's revenue missing expectations and their first reaction is "the AI bubble is about to burst, run now."
Hayes sees it differently: the faster AI revenue grows, the sooner the bubble bursts; the sooner the bubble bursts, the stronger the Fed's justification to print money.
This is not just motivational talk. This is a judgment on the structural behavior of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury.
The US 10-year Treasury yield is still around 5.25%, the 30-year at 5.69%, decades-high levels. The Treasury has more and more debt to repay, and the higher the rates, the greater the pressure. The midterm elections are just weeks away, and gasoline prices remain high due to the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—Brent crude is still above $101.
War is burning money, the AI bubble needs a backstop, and the elections are forcing politicians to act.
Three forces point to the same exit: liquidity.
A recent report from CICC bluntly states: the Fed's eventual rate cuts may exceed market expectations, and dollar easing trades may return in the short term.
CME FedWatch shows the probability of a rate hike in October has plummeted from 70% a week ago to 18%.
The market is still debating "to hike or not," but the real old OGs are already betting on "when the printing starts."
Bitcoin is now stuck at $82,000. Support is between $80,500 and $81,500, resistance at $86,700.
Short-term volatility is indeed present. But Hayes' framework tells you: every macro negative release is fuel for money printing expectations.
The "ghost stories" of AI scared tech stocks, but the panic it caused will ultimately become an excuse for Fed easing.
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