The fourth time. Will Bitcoin's "fall first, then rise" script replay?
Trump just said something.
"Not really wanting" to reach an agreement with Iran.
What does this mean? It means: this war might still go on.
Bitcoin immediately dropped to $82,700, hitting a monthly low. Brent crude surged to $102, and the 10-year US Treasury yield soared to 5.36%—the highest since 2002.
Everyone is panicking.
But don't rush. In the past four years, the same script has played out four times.
First time. February 2022.
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Bitcoin plunged 8% within hours, from $37,000 down to $34,400.
Everyone thought it was over.
Four days later, Bitcoin rebounded over 14% in a single day. Within a month, the price was 27% higher than before the invasion.
Second time. October 2023.
Hamas attacked Israel. Bitcoin fell 6% that week.
In the following 30 days, it surged 40%. Five months later, the increase reached 172%.
Third time. May 2025.
India launched missile strikes on Pakistan. Bitcoin dropped only 3% that day and fully recovered the next day.
Within two weeks, it rose 15%, hitting a new all-time high.
Fourth time. February 2026.
The US and Israel jointly bombed Iran. Bitcoin plunged 6% within 45 minutes, falling to $63,038, triggering $515 million in long position liquidations.
Then it rebounded 17%, breaking above the 50-day moving average.
Four times. Each time, it fell first then rose. Without exception.
The only difference is the rebound magnitude—14%, 40%, 15%, 17%.
More or less rise depends on one variable.
Not the conflict itself. It's whether oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz can operate normally.
Look closely: as long as the conflict doesn't truly cut off energy supply or push inflation to explode, the market quickly digests the panic and returns to its original rhythm.
In the Russia-Ukraine war, oil prices did not spiral out of control. They rebounded.
In the India-Pakistan conflict, oil prices remained steady. They rebounded.
In the 2026 US-Iran conflict, the US Treasury Secretary intervened to control oil prices, sentiment immediately improved. They rebounded.
But this time, it's a bit different.
Trump said "not really wanting an agreement." In the past five days, Iran's Revolutionary Guard has taken action against at least seven oil tankers, with multiple ships hit by unidentified projectiles. The Revolutionary Guard command advisor directly declared: the Strait of Hormuz is closed.
Brent crude at $102.
US Treasury yield at 5.36%.
When these three things surge together, Bitcoin can't hold up.
Now back to the most critical question: this time, will it be an exception?
I'll tell you the only criterion—whether the oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz can resume normal passage.
If yes, the script replays. After a sharp drop comes a rebound.
If not, this time it's not "fall then rise," but "fall then fall again."
In terms of strategy, just one sentence:
If you believe in this pattern—buy spot in batches during sharp drops, gradually reduce positions during rebounds.
Don't touch contracts. Because you simply don't know where the "fall first" bottom is.
History doesn't repeat simply, but it rhymes.
The previous four times all rhymed with the same ending.
This time's rhyme is called Hormuz.
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