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Federal Reserve September minutes original text: "Most participants believe that a further increase in the federal funds rate target range before the end of this year may be appropriate." CME data: 19.4% probability of a rate hike in October. One side says "raise," the other says "no raise." An 80 percentage point difference. This is not a disagreement. This is a public contradiction. But the really interesting thing happened before the minutes were released. On October 1, the Federal Reserve's "three horsemen"—Vice Chair Jefferson, New York Fed President Williams, and Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman—all collectively took a dovish stance on the same day. Jefferson said: "Any policy adjustment should be decided by carefully examining data trends; my colleagues and I may need more time." Williams was more direct: "There is no urgency to adjust the current monetary policy stance." Bowman agreed: "There is currently no pressing need to take further action." All three have permanent voting rights on the FOMC. Evercore ISI's interpretation is spot on: this is an "authoritative" signal—not just the opinion of individual officials, but a reflection of the collective will of the Fed's top leadership. The market is not reacting to the minutes. The market is reacting to these three individuals. The probability of a rate hike dropped from about 70% to 25% in the days they spoke. So what are the hawks saying? Dallas Fed President Logan was the most aggressive: "At least another 50 basis points of hikes are needed." She characterized the September hike as the "first step," believing subsequent actions are merely to offset the three rate cuts last year—which were meant to guard against a cooling labor market that never materialized. Kashkari also said his forecast still includes one more rate hike this year and one more next year. Sounds reasonable. But the problem is: Logan and Kashkari do not have the influence of Jefferson and Williams. In a context where the Fed in Washington barely provides rate guidance, the joint statement of the three horsemen is the only anchor the market can hold onto. Now, the real judge is about to take the stage. On October 14, the September CPI will be released. This is the last inflation data before the October 28 policy meeting. The market consensus expectation: overall CPI year-over-year at 3.4%. But the Cleveland Fed's nowcast model gives a figure of 3.58%—nearly 0.2 percentage points higher. Meanwhile, the latest New York Fed consumer expectations survey shows Americans' inflation expectations for the next year have surged to 3.9%, the highest since May 2023. The divergence itself says it all: no one knows where inflation is really headed. The Fed revealed its bottom line in the minutes. But the market chooses to look at the other hand—that hand was extended on October 1. Jefferson's original words are worth savoring: "Rising energy prices, the AI investment boom, and tariffs are multiple shocks layering on the economy. When making policy, we do not have the luxury of looking at any one of these shocks in isolation." What is he implying? He is implying these are supply-side shocks—rate hikes cannot solve supply shocks. This logically does not align with the "rate hikes are appropriate" statement in the minutes. Bitcoin fell to $83,000 yesterday, hitting a monthly low. The 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.36%, the highest in 24 years. But what are institutions doing? Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF holdings surpassed 10,500 BTC, worth over $900 million. BlackRock's IBIT has net bought $1.57 billion in the past month. Retail investors are panicking; institutions are accumulating. The October 14 CPI is the real judge. If CPI is below 3.4% → rate hike narrative collapses → dollar weakens → BTC's $87,000 resistance may be broken in one go. If CPI is above 3.6% → hawks regain the narrative → risk assets continue to be under pressure. The market is betting on "the three horsemen call the shots." What if CPI says "no"? $BTC $ETH $ZEC