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峰哥的交易日记
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9月非农新增就业仅2.9万人，远低于预期的约8.4万。失业率升至4.2%，工资增速3.0%创2021年5月以来最低。劳动力市场正在降温，这是市场下调加息预期的核心依据。
市场对10月加息的定价已降至约22%-25%。而在9月会议刚结束时，这个数字还在50%以上。预期已经发生了“完全反转” 。
EIA预计布伦特原油第四季度均价将达到105美元/桶，较此前预测上调14美元。美伊战争持续消耗全球石油库存，霍尔木兹海峡航运风险溢价居高不下。
BTC当前在8.4万美元附近震荡，8.5万是短期阻力，8.72万（2026年开盘价）是关键心理关口。QCP指出，8.72万上方确认后才可能打开下一波上行空间。
周四凌晨2点 — 北京时间10月8日02:00，9月FOMC会议纪要公布。这是本周BTC方向的决定性催化剂。 纪要是确认市场的鸽派定价，还是打脸重新鹰派定价？答案即将揭晓。
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？
峰哥的交易日记
4 new addresses, 1 hour, 40x leverage, 148.49 BTC short positions. BTC immediately broke below 84000. This is not trading, this is a "preview."
1-hour liquidation of $410 million. $398 million were long positions. Largest single orders: Ethereum long $26.64 million, Bitcoin long $11.74 million. Two giant whale corpses, both on Binance.
Hyperliquid is under investigation by the US Congress for "insider shorting." The $1.1 billion short position in October 2025 has not been explained yet, and today there's another one. The congressional letter may already be on its way.
Middle East oil tanker attacked, BTC did not rise. Geopolitical conflicts during a rate-hiking cycle are bearish for BTC—they push oil prices up, strengthen hawkishness, and suppress liquidity.
The Fear and Greed Index remains at 71, in the "Greed" zone. The market is not panicking yet. This means if 83000 breaks, the next wave of liquidations could be more intense than today.
Leveraged longs are bleeding, insider players are profiting, regulators are watching. Which side is your position on?
$BTC $CL $BZ #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入
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