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外头啥风声 美股 10/1 纳指 +1.19% 盘中创 27,244 新高,标普 +0.73%,英伟达涨 1.09% 市值干到 5.56 万亿——美股自己嗨得飞起。港股 10/2 一开门就跌,恒指 -2.6%、恒生科技 -2.26% 创本轮新低,区间最大跌幅 38.78%,假期第一天就给你脸。A 股国庆休到 10/8,躲过一劫。 美联储鹰声没断过:卡什卡利说今年再加一次明年再加一次,10 年期美债收益率 5.31%(2007 年来最高)、30 年期 5.65%(2002 年来新高)。布伦特原油破 100 美元,G7 放储 1 亿桶换美国松柴油出口禁令,油价高位币圈居然扛住了——$BTC ETF 9 月吸 26.5 亿(去年 10 月来第二大),机构没走,但别替机构站岗。 $BTC 资金费率从 10/01 的 0.0065% 回落到 10/03 的 0.0046%,多头在降温但还没投降,距离极端还远,意味着空头还有空间加码。
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Main focus $BTC | Strategy: Short, place the order on the table first $BTC current price 84,656, on 10/02 a spike to 87,249 then pulled back to close at 84,482 — this move shows the "flash step is completely mastered," flashing up then flashing down, a 2,767-point upper shadow hanging there like a streetlight. Short. Place short orders between 85,200-85,633, stop loss at 86,200, targets at 83,500 / 82,500, capped at 5x leverage. Why short? Long upper shadow rejects adding OI, net inflow of 560 million over three days but price did not make a new high, meaning bulls are lining up on guard. The market makers are also rushing to offload their positions to you. $BTC main chart to watch first The main chart tells a story with 7 candlesticks: On 9/28 a big bearish candle smashed down to the weekly low of 82,500, on 9/30 a rebound to 85,633 was suppressed, on 10/02 another push to 87,249 was smashed back to 84,482 — two attempts to break through both rejected, the ceiling at 87,249 is getting harder. Drawing lines: The descending pressure line connects the peaks from 9/30 at 85,633 to 10/02 at 87,249, although the slope is upward, the long upper shadow on 10/02 directly proves this line must not be touched; rebound T1 is about 85,600 (current price and resistance midpoint), T2 about 86,500; support level 2% below 82,500 is about 80,850.

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