US September Nonfarm Payrolls: 29,000. Expected 90,000. A full threefold difference.
July and August data were also revised down by a total of 60,000 jobs. Unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%.
Once the data was released, CME FedWatch showed the probability of keeping rates unchanged in October jumped directly from 78% to 86.2%. Traders no longer fully price in at least one more rate hike this year.
What about the US stock market? The Dow rose 0.49%, the S&P 0.74%, and the Nasdaq 1.19%.
NVIDIA hit an intraday all-time high, with a market cap approaching $5.7 trillion, less than $300 billion away from $6 trillion.
And Bitcoin?
At the moment the data came out, BTC briefly surged to $87,000, then — pulled back. Currently at $84,643, down 0.7% in 24 hours.
Employment data is positive, US stocks went crazy, but Bitcoin got stuck.
This is no coincidence. Looking at these three sets of data together, you’ll find a very clear pattern.
📊 Data ① — Employment: The positive impact has landed, but was eaten up by AI stocks
Don’t rush to celebrate.
September nonfarm payrolls of 29,000 looks like a “positive for risk assets,” right? Poor employment → Fed won’t dare to hike → loose liquidity → positive for Bitcoin.
But the market didn’t react that way.
Nasdaq rose 1.19%, NVIDIA hit an all-time high. The liquidity expectations brought by employment data were all intercepted by AI stocks.
Funds didn’t flow into Bitcoin, but into NVIDIA, Tesla, SpaceX, Broadcom, ASML. All gains are AI narratives.
What’s more painful: The Fed just hiked 25 basis points last month to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike in three years, still hawkish. Even if no hike in October, the probability of at least one more hike this year remains 86.8%.
Employment data is positive. But Bitcoin didn’t benefit from this positive.
📊 Data ② — Fund flows: Inflowing, but not enough to break $87,000
Look at ETF funds.
Bitcoin spot ETFs had net inflows of $3.1 billion over 9 consecutive days, the strongest wave this year. On Wednesday, there was a net outflow of $148.7 million, ending the streak.
But on Thursday it immediately recovered: single-day net inflow of $103 million, BlackRock IBIT led with $196 million net inflow, total net asset value $109.3 billion.
Funds are not systematically withdrawing. But the willingness to chase above $85,000 is clearly insufficient.
IBIT alone carried $196 million, other ETFs either zero inflow or net outflow. Fidelity FBTC had a single-day net outflow of $60.73 million.
This is not a broad-based inflow, it’s BlackRock alone holding the line.
📊 Data ③ — Price: $87,000 is an iron ceiling, three attempts all failed
Technicals are more straightforward.
BTC tried three times to break $87,000, three failures. Formed a small double top structure. $85,000 became resistance, $82,000-$83,000 became support.
Glassnode data is even harsher: the amount of long-term holder coins clustered in the $84,000 to $85,000 range is higher than any other price range. Price must break and hold above this range for the rally to continue.
More worrisome: BTC’s Bull Score remains at 90/100 but shows signs of fatigue. Profit-taking activity is increasing, derivatives trading volume hit one of the largest single-day records in 2026.
Translation: Someone is selling.
🔗 Putting the three data sets together, the conclusion is one sentence:
Employment positive → eaten by AI stocks
Fund inflows → just enough to support, not enough to break through
Price → $87,000 iron ceiling, break means $90,000+, no break means continued consolidation
💡 So what are we waiting for now?
Waiting for a catalyst. Either continuous large ETF inflows (not $100 million level, but over $500 million), or macro unexpectedly positive (e.g., Fed clearly signaling pause in hikes).
Before that, $82,000 to $87,000 is the current battleground.
Bitcoin isn’t not rising, it just can’t rise.
It’s not that no one is buying, it’s that buyers aren’t aggressive enough.
🎯 To be honest.
Last night’s data combination, in any normal market environment, Bitcoin should have broken $87,000.
But it didn’t.
What does this mean? It means the market is waiting for a stronger signal. Not the “poor employment” old positive that’s been digested repeatedly, but the moment the Fed truly turns.
AI stocks are absorbing all liquidity, Bitcoin is waiting in the cracks.
This is the real current pattern.
$87,000, break means $90,000+. No break, continue grinding.
$BTC$ETH$NVDA#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
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