SUI at $1.01, do you dare to chase it?
First, look at the surface: 24-hour increase of 5-10%, 7-day increase of 30-47%, 1-month increase of 25-30%, trading volume exploded to 2 billion USD. Daily chart breaks through the descending wedge, stands above all moving averages, the psychological $1.00 level is trampled underfoot. Breakout confirmed, target $1.25-1.38.
But TVL crashed from 2.6 billion to 537 million, a drop of 80%. Phantom wallet delisted SUI on September 24. 23 million tokens unlocked in early October.
First thing: Is Basecamp the antidote or just a tool for the whales to dump?
October 7-8, Singapore, Sui Basecamp 2026. Mysten Labs CPO personally hyping, about to release a "major financial product"—agent finance, payments, instant settlement, privacy transactions.
But look closely at the timeline:
September 24: Phantom delists SUI (bearish)
October 1-3: 23 million tokens unlocked (bearish)
October 7-8: Basecamp conference (bullish)
Bearish news first, bullish news later. Do you think the whales will dump first to accumulate or pump first to wait for the bullish news to sell?
Second thing: TVL crashed 80%, this is the most painful
In October 2025, SUI's TVL was still 2.6 billion USD. Now, 537 million.
This is not a halving, this is an ankle cut.
Some say "TVL is a lagging indicator"—true, but lagging this long and dropping this hard means what? It means the funds that came for the ecosystem in the last wave have already fled.
More painful is that SUI's market cap is 4.2 billion, but TVL is only 537 million. The rise is all sentiment, not value.
Third thing: Technicals are overbought, chasing high is just giving heads
Short-term RSI 70-86, daily RSI 57-76—overbought signals maxed out
Bollinger upper band broken, strong demand for pullback
MACD momentum strong but flattening—upward momentum is fading
At $1.01, cost-performance is extremely poor.
Bull vs. bear, you decide
On one side:
Basecamp conference October 7-8, major product expectations
Breakout of descending wedge, technicals turning bullish
BTC breaks 85,000, altcoin season rotation starts
21Shares and other ETFs provide institutional channel narrative
Trading volume 2 billion, capital participation booming
On the other side:
TVL crashed from 2.6 billion to 537 million, on-chain real demand shrinks
Phantom delisted SUI on September 24, fewer entry points
23 million tokens unlocked in early October, selling pressure imminent
RSI overbought, short-term chasing risk very high
Down 81% from ATH 5.35, all overhead is trapped positions
Resistance above: 1.05-1.08 → 1.10 → 1.16 → 1.38-1.40
Support below: 0.97-0.99 → 0.91 → 0.86-0.82 → 0.77 (wedge breakout confirmation zone)
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
Wait for pullback to 0.95-0.97, enter lightly after a long lower shadow or volume-increasing bullish candle, stop loss at 0.91. Target half exit at 1.08, add position if it holds 1.08 aiming for 1.15-1.20.
Swing players:
Wait for daily to hold 1.05-1.08 before entering, target 1.25-1.38, stop loss 0.97. But remember—reduce positions before Basecamp bullish news lands.
Long-term believers:
Consider dollar-cost averaging below 0.85. SUI's fundamentals need time to prove; if TVL doesn't recover, the price is a castle in the air. The bet is on real ecosystem growth after Basecamp, not on a single bullish candle.
SUI now is like SOL at the start of 2024—
Everyone shouts "to return to the peak," but those who really profit are the ones quietly accumulating at the bottom, not the ones chasing highs.
At $1.01, you are not bottom fishing—
you are gambling on the whales' conscience.
And whales never have a conscience.
At $1.01, do you dare to chase or wait for a pullback?
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