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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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雷扎伊澄清——伊朗对美国提出的停火条件并非是三条而是七条,停火前置条件降级失效?我认为并没有 今天最重要的两条消息,凌晨伊朗表示已经通过卡塔尔向美国递交停火的三大前置条件,前置条件从以前的七条降低为三条,一度让我以为是降级信号 不过就在刚才,雷扎伊再次表示,三项条件是主要条件,同时还有四条未公布,那么问题来了,条件并未减少,那么是否还可以视为前置条件的降级? 首先,前值条件虽然依旧是七条,但是四条隐藏,意味着停火的前置主要条件缩减到三条,其他四条不曝光,很有可能转为实质性的具体条件 如果说过去的停火七条是一个空泛且门槛较高的框架,现在的七条是逐渐进入实质性推进,目的性很强,就是为了停火回归谈判 其次,本次伊朗方面主动承认通过卡塔尔递交谈判条件,结合本周伊朗外长访华,中国领导人下周访美,我认为是在与中方沟通后修正了谈判条件,届时中方领导人推波助澜,很有可能会让美国更好的接受方案,从而推动停火与谈判 目前美伊事态的法案已经更加验证我此前的观点——中方真正下场斡旋,并且提供了更强的外交支持,而美伊局势回归谈判的转折点很有可能就是发生在中方领导人访华后#BTC维持8万美元,加密市场修复扩散
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
The actual damaged equipment at Saudi energy facilities has been revised upward, making the energy output environment more severe. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia is seeking a transshipment plan from Oman's Sohar port, currently expanding the plan to 60 million barrels Saudi Arabia is striving to make up for the current tight energy output situation, but the pressure on the energy market cannot be relieved in the short term, and attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continue In the early morning, Trump sent a significant signal to Company A regarding Iran, with a clear political statement intention. After all, the meeting with the six Gulf countries is next week, and before the meeting, it is necessary to demonstrate the strong position of the United States, so there has been a short-term escalation in rhetoric. My personal judgment is that this escalation in rhetoric is likely more bluster. Although Brent has fallen in the short term, it has not yet left the danger zone of $100, so at this time, various media noise should be ignored, focusing on the actual navigation volume of the strait and the actual energy loading volume As for the US-Iran situation, the short-term escalation in rhetoric can be ignored. The focus is on what signals will be released at the China-US summit next week! #柴油价格创新高,原油降温难传导

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