UNI at $8.7, do you still dare to chase?
First, look at the surface: it’s gone crazy up, but some are starting to run.
In mid-September it was still at 6, then on the 18th-19th it shot straight up to 9.4-9.5 in two days, more than doubling in 30 days. Market cap is 5.4 billion, circulating supply 621 million tokens. Moving averages are bullishly aligned, price far above the 20/50/200-day averages, trend is intact—but the position is very tight, so tight it’s hard to even breathe.
First thing: What exactly did the SEC’s “innovation exemption” blow open?
The SEC allows qualified venues to trade tokenized US stocks through permissioned AMM/permissioned pools for 5 years without registering as traditional exchanges.
UNI wasn’t named, but Uniswap v4 launched Permissioned Pools in July, partnering with Superstate, Securitize, Dowgo—the architecture fits perfectly, and the market priced it as “compliance channel opened.”
Wall Street used to look down on DEXs, now the SEC has opened the door itself. UNI has transformed from a “regulatory orphan” to a “compliance darling.”
Second thing: But don’t get too happy yet, three warning signals are flashing
Signal one: On September 16, the Fed raised rates by 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the first hike in over three years. Inflation remains sticky due to oil prices, and the Clarity Act is stalled in the Senate. Normally, this is bearish for risk assets.
Signal two: After the huge volume on the 18th, trading volume has clearly shrunk. Weekend plus profit-taking don’t support an immediate new main rally.
Signal three: Daily RSI previously hit around 75, overbought; CCI/Stoch indicators are hot. The more reasonable short-term path is to first digest the 8.45-9.10 range rather than directly pushing up another 20%.
Third thing: A technical “box” has appeared that must be taken seriously
Daily chart shows: this is a main rally wave breaking out from a nearly two-year descending wedge. On the 18th a long bullish candle broke out, on the 19th it surged to 9.4-9.5 with an upper shadow, and on the 20th it pulled back near 8.5. Now it’s a box pullback after the impulse.
Strong resistance: 9.35-9.52 (this round’s high wall, but going past it risks a false breakout)
Near resistance: 8.90-9.10 (today’s first rebound hurdle)
Current price: 8.70 (temporary bull-bear dividing line)
Near support: 8.45-8.52 (today’s low, break accelerates retreat)
Key support: 8.05-8.15 (boundary for healthy pullback)
Trend support: 7.70-7.85 (weekly level, breaking this weakens this round’s structure)
If the 4-hour chart closes with a lower low and volume breaks below 8.45, it’s a classic “second leg pullback after a spike.”
Bull vs. bear, you decide
On one side:
SEC innovation exemption + Uniswap v4 Permissioned Pools, compliance narrative explodes
Whales withdrew 1.07 million tokens, exchange selling pressure reduced
UNIfication burn mechanism, protocol fees buy back with real money
Tokenized stock TVL clearly growing over the past 30 days
Moving averages bullishly aligned, trend intact
On the other side:
Fed rate hike 25bp, macro tightening
Weekend liquidity thin, profit-taking pressure after surge is heavy
RSI overbought pullback, volume shrinks, no support for immediate main rally
9.5 spike then pullback, 9.35-9.52 is a hard wall
Typical death of news-driven coins: good news lands → spike → next week retraces 15-25%
Trading strategy
Scenario one: Bullish bias (trend intact, wait for pullback)
Watch for stabilization at 8.45-8.55 (4h no break and close bullish), or deeper at 8.10-8.20.
Stop loss: enter at 8.45 with stop below 8.25; enter at 8.15 with stop at 7.85.
Targets: first 8.95-9.10, second 9.40-9.52. If it effectively holds above 9.52, then look at 10.2-10.5, and further narrative near 12.
Scenario two: Short-term high sell low buy (more suitable currently)
Reduce/hedge at 8.85-9.10, buy back near 8.50.
Range invalidation: volume break below 8.45 or volume breakout above 9.52.
Scenario three: Bearish/defensive
4h close below 8.45 and rebound fails to surpass 8.60, consider impulse ended, pullback targets 8.10 → 7.80.
Daily close below 7.80 requires reassessment of this round’s structure from 6 upwards.
UNI’s fundamentals and regulatory narrative are indeed much better than before—that’s the confidence behind its rise from 6 to 9.5.
But 8.7 is no longer “cheap,” it’s the first pullback after the main rally.
You ask if you can chase?
I ask you back:
You didn’t get on board during the surge on the 18th, now it’s pulling back and you don’t dare to buy—then you wait for it to break 9.52 and chase, only to cut losses on a pullback. How many times have you played this script?
At 8.7, do you dare to chase or wait for a pullback?
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