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加密这边 $BTC 现货 ETF 净流出但 $ETH ETF 还在流入,机构在两个主流币上各押各的,增量没进来,全是存量在里面互割。 $BTC 三连阳,复活还是回光返照 看图说话:9/14 那根 K 线才是真正的剧情转折点——最高摸到 79,569,收盘砸到 76,474,一根上影线直接把多头脊梁骨打断。9/15 继续滑到 74,897,然后开始这三天的所谓反弹。 现在 77,263,刚好卡在跌幅的 50% 回撤位附近(79,569 到 74,897 跌了 4,672 点,反弹 2,366 点约 50.6%)。这个位置很关键:过了 50% 回撤叫真强,过不去就是死猫跳的标准剧本。资金费率从 0.004% 爬到 0.0075%,多头又开始上头了,费率越高多头越挤,一旦拐头砍仓跑得比谁都快。 上方第一道墙是 9/13 收盘价 78,537,再往上才是 79,569 的波段顶。在 78,000-78,500 布空就是赌这个反弹在阻力面前歇菜。MA3 和 MA5 还在 MA10 下面排着,均线系统没翻多,反弹是反弹,趋势没变。
colword.std
colword.std
Main focus $BTC | Strategy: short on rebound, conclusion first, don't blame me if you lose $BTC bounced back from 74,900 to 77,263, three consecutive bullish days looking impressive, but the daily gains are shrinking — 9/16 up 1.46%, 9/17 only 0.67%. This rebound strength is like that "really bold" food delivery rider, looks strong but legs tremble when running. Short in batches from 78,000 to 78,500, stop loss at 79,700 (above the swing high of 79,569), target 75,000 then 74,500, with 3x leverage. The Fed just raised rates and hinted at another hike by year-end, $BTC shorting on the mid-slope rebound, starting with a 2:1 risk-reward ratio, this trade is on. What madness is happening worldwide The Fed raised rates by 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% overnight, Chair Powell hawkishly said this is the start of a new tightening cycle, not a one-off insurance, the dot plot hints at another hike by year-end. The Dow plunged 600 points immediately, but Nasdaq futures reversed to green against the trend. This US stock market's hot and cold extremes really fit the "jinx male lead" profile — whoever touches it gets unlucky, but some still don't believe it. China's three major indices opened lower, Shanghai Composite down 0.36% at midday close, Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 0.44% to 24,604. The ECB also raised rates on 9/10, with the three major central banks of the US, Europe, and Japan all tightening simultaneously — the last time this happened was in 2006.

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