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After rate hikes, risk assets rebound. Is rate hikes no longer a threat? It's a bit premature to say this! Core factors: The rebound after rate hikes is expected to be in line with boot realization, and last September, the probability of a rate hike had already stabilized at 90%. When the probability exceeds 80%, the market has already started pricing in. So when the rate hike materializes, it means the September rate hike is a thing of the past, and the market is trading new future expectations—when will the next rate hike happen? Walsh's post-rate hike speech can lead to a conclusion: monthly data is no longer the core factor influencing Fed policy changes, but the importance of data trends has increased. That is, the data for September is crucial in driving expectations for further rate hikes. As of now, the probability of a rate hike in October is 50.9%, and in December it is 49.6%, both around 50%. This means there is still insufficient evidence for further rate hikes, so the market naturally is no longer fearful. However, if the CPI in September comes after, PEC and related data show inflation continues to stay high or even rebound, increasing the probability of rate hikes in October and December. The market still needs to return to rate hike fears. Auxiliary factors #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 Currently, the key to breaking Fed rate hike expectations + high bond yields is energy prices. During the day, Brent WTI fell due to a temporary easing in the Middle East situation, causing long-term yields in the bond market to fall, easing pressure on the market and helping risk assets rebound. Have risk assets really gotten through the crisis? You can refer to my previous views on this; there have been a few recently