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#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext The Fed just got permission to wait. Now jobs decide how long 👀
Core PCE rose 3.0% YoY and 0.2% MoM, softer than expected, while consumer spending stayed surprisingly strong. Markets responded by cutting the odds of an October hike to roughly 38%, with Goldman pushing its next-hike call to December.
But inflation hasn't disappeared. Kashkari still sees it as too high, and September ADP payrolls came in at +90K.
What stands out to me is how quickly the Fed debate has shifted from inflation alone to the balance between inflation and labor strength.
A strong NFP could revive October hike bets. A weak print gives the Fed more room to wait.
PCE opened the door to a pause. Jobs will decide whether the Fed walks through it.
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