#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext
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US core PCE rose 3.0% YoY and 0.2% MoM in Aug, both below expectations, while consumer spending stayed resilient. CME FedWatch now puts the odds of a 25bp Oct hike at about 38%, vs 62% for no change. Goldman Sachs pushed its next-hike call to Dec, though Kashkari said inflation remains too high. With Sept ADP payrolls up 90,000, focus now turns to the Sept NFP report at 12:30 UTC on Oct 2. Can jobs data reshape the Fed outlook?
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Why does NFP matter for crypto
Core PCE came in softer than expected, while consumer spending remains resilient. Now, all eyes turn to September NFP on Oct. 2.
Strong jobs → less pressure to cut/hike expectations rise → liquidity can tighten.
Weak jobs → more room for Fed easing → liquidity conditions could improve.
For $BTC, the reaction may come down to jobs + wages + unemployment, not the headline NFP number alone.
Mark the date. 👀📊
#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext
#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext
Rate hikes getting delayed while the job market starts showing cracks could create a very different setup for risk assets.
If employment keeps weakening, pressure builds for monetary policy to turn more supportive.
That could become a major catalyst for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext #Bitcoin #CryptoTreasuryDivides
#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext Inflation just gave the Fed room to wait. Jobs could decide whether that room lasts 👀
Core PCE cooled below expectations, pushing Oct hike odds to ~38%. But spending remains resilient and Kashkari still sees inflation as too high.
What caught my attention is the setup for NFP. Strong hiring could quickly revive hike bets, while another weak print strengthens the case for patience.
Inflation opened the door to a pause. Jobs now decide how far it opens.
🇺🇸 US Macro Data: Core PCE
Core PCE:
m/m = +0.2% (forecast +0.3% / previous +0.2%)
y/y = +3.0% (forecast +3.4% / previous +3.3%)
PCE:
m/m = +0.3% (forecast +0.3% / previous +0.2%)
y/y = +3.4% (forecast +3.8% / previous +3.7%)
Q2 GDP: +2.2% (forecast +1.5% / previous +2.1%)
📈 Inflation came in slightly below expectations, which is generally supportive for risk assets. The first reaction from crypto has been upward
The next rate hike can wait. Now the jobs data gets the spotlight.
After September’s Fed hike, the market has been debating whether another move needs to happen immediately. Personally, I think the labor market could now become the deciding factor.
If hiring stays healthy and unemployment remains stable, the Fed has more room to stay focused on inflation and keep policy tight. But if payroll growth starts weakening while unemployment rises, another hike becomes much harder to justify.
That’s why I’m watching more than just the headline payroll number. Wage growth, unemployment and previous-month revisions could tell us much more about whether the labor market is genuinely slowing.
For BTC, this creates an interesting setup too. Softer jobs could reduce rate pressure, but a labor market that weakens too quickly isn’t necessarily good news for risk assets either.
#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext $BTC
#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext The PCE numbers came in a little softer than expected, and suddenly the conversation around the next rate hike feels a bit less urgent 👀 But I don’t think the picture is clear just yet.
Now all eyes are on the jobs data. If the labor market stays strong, the Fed still has plenty to think about. If it starts cooling, expectations could shift again pretty quickly. 📊
Feels like one of those weeks where every new data point changes the story a little 😅📉✨
The Fed debate just got pushed to jobs day.
August core PCE, one of the Fed’s most closely watched inflation gauges, rose 3.0% YoY and 0.2% MoM, both softer than expected. Headline PCE also cooled to 3.4% YoY and 0.3% MoM.
That gave markets a reason to price out some October hike risk.
But the data was not clean enough to end the debate. Personal spending rose 0.9% MoM in August, while real PCE increased 0.6%, showing that US consumers are still spending even as inflation cools.
Key points:
· CME FedWatch puts the odds of a 25bp October hike near 38%, with no change around 62%
· Goldman Sachs pushed its next-hike call from October to December after the softer PCE print
· Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari continues to argue that inflation remains too high
· ADP reported 90,000 private-sector jobs added in September, while annual base pay growth held at 3.2%
The message is mixed. Inflation is cooling, but demand has not cracked. Hiring is moderating, but the labor market is not flashing a clear recession signal.
So markets are not just trading inflation anymore. They are trading the balance between cooler prices, sticky demand and how patient the Fed can afford to be.
For crypto and global risk assets, the next test is the September US jobs report, due October 2 at 12:30 UTC. Traders will be watching payrolls, unemployment, wage growth and revisions.
A soft jobs print could support the pause narrative and help risk appetite. A strong one could bring the “higher for longer” trade back fast, especially if wages stay firm.
For now, softer PCE delayed the hike debate. It did not kill it.
Are you positioning for a Fed pause, or still waiting for the jobs data before making a move?
#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext
The market is quiet, but Friday’s jobs data could change everything. ⚡
PCE eased, giving crypto a small boost, but elevated yields keep pressure on risk assets.
$BTC is around $84.2K, with $83.1K support and $84.9K resistance in focus.
$ETH remains range-bound near $2.7K, while $SOL continues to attract ETF demand but remains highly volatile.
Tomorrow’s NFP may provide the next catalyst. Until then, patience matters more than prediction.
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Core PCE cooled to 3.0% YoY / 0.2% MoM, while September ADP showed +90K private jobs. Markets have already reduced expectations for an October rate hike, putting even more weight on the upcoming NFP report.
For $BTC I see 3 possible reactions:
Weak NFP → delayed hike narrative strengthens → potentially bullish for risk assets.
Strong NFP + strong wages → hike expectations could return → BTC may face pressure.
Mixed data → volatility first, direction later.
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