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📊 Market Structure $BAT 1h K-line completed three bottom tests near 0.098 with volume breakout above previous highs, current price 0.10673. 24-hour increase 13.74%, turnover 881.2K. MACD histogram has increased consecutively for 6 bars, RSI reading 67.3, not yet in overbought territory. 📍 Key Levels $BAT upper resistance at 0.112 is the lower boundary of last week's dense trading zone, lower support at 0.101 provided dynamically by 1h MA20. On-chain data shows the number of holding addresses increased about 2.3% in the past 48 hours, large transfer transactions rose 11% week-over-week. 📊 Correlated Observation $W current price 0.014653, up 9.19%, turnover 1.6M, highest among the three. 1h MACD just formed a golden cross, RSI 58.4. $SENT 0.02394, up 9.02%, turnover 1.3M, RSI 61.1, volume and price coordination is acceptable. 📍 Data Layer The synchronous rebound of the three correlates with the US Dollar Index (DXY) falling to around 104.2. After BTC stabilized above 63K, small-cap tokens showed catch-up gains. $BAT on-chain new addresses 7-day average rose 8.6% compared to the previous week, $W contract open interest increased 4.2%. 📊 Bias Judgment If $BAT closes above 0.104 on 1h, the probability of continuing upward to test 0.112 is relatively high. 📊 Market Structure STRK current price 0.05505, 24h increase 26%, turnover 22.8M. 1h K-line shows price has risen above MA20 and MA60, moving averages in bullish alignment. MACD fast and slow lines formed a golden cross above zero axis and continue to diverge, histogram shows no obvious volume contraction. 📍 Key Levels RSI 1h reading 68, approaching overbought but not yet exhausted, 4h level 61 still has room to rise. Upper resistance refers to previous highs in 0.058-0.060 range, lower support near 0.049 at MA20. Turnover 22.8M is a volume expansion level among similar assets. 🔗 On-chain Cross STRK token activity on L2 track has recently rebounded, coupled with increased turnover, indicating capital support. AXS up 14.27% but turnover only 2.7M, volume insufficient to confirm trend. MERL and S up about 7%, turnover below 1M, considered follow-up gains. 📉 Bias Judgment Multi-period signals resonate bullishly, but 1h RSI near 70 calls for caution of short-term pullback. Probability favors pullback to MA20 then continuation; if volume breakout above 0.058 occurs, space opens up. Data does not support chasing highs, monitor volume sustainability. Not investment advice. #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额

Regarding oil prices, just looking at the rise or fall is meaningless. If it goes up by two cents today and down by one dollar tomorrow, focusing only on that number can easily mislead you. What really needs to be analyzed are the underlying variables: who is increasing or decreasing production on the supply side, whether demand is in peak or off-season, and whether inventories are being replenished or drawn down. Judging solely by price fluctuations is like evaluating a company’s quality just by its revenue growth rate—too crude. For example, a company’s revenue might grow 30% year-over-year, which sounds impressive, but it could be due to discounting to increase volume, shifting product mix from high-end to low-margin items, channel pressure to push inventory, or regional subsidies. Revenue = volume × price, but you also need to consider product mix, channel quality, regional differences, and payment collection. Oil prices are similar; they are not determined by supply and demand alone but by a combination of supply, demand, inventory, geopolitical premiums, and the strength of the US dollar. On the supply side, OPEC+ production policies, US shale oil growth, and actual exports from Russia and Iran all affect marginal supply. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Brent crude once approached $139/barrel due to heavy geopolitical premiums; in April 2020, the WTI May contract even dropped to -$37.63/barrel because storage was full and demand collapsed. Although it’s all "oil," the drivers are completely different. On the demand side, the summer driving season, winter heating oil demand, China’s industrial activity, and travel in Europe and the US all create seasonality. Weekly inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) often causes volatility: high refinery utilization and crude inventory drawdowns may indicate bullishness; gasoline inventory builds and weakening demand may indicate bearishness. In 2022, the US also released about 180 million barrels from its strategic petroleum reserve, directly suppressing prices through inventory variables. The US dollar is also critical. International crude oil is mostly priced in dollars; when the dollar strengthens, costs rise for buyers using other currencies, usually suppressing oil prices; when the dollar weakens, prices tend to rise. In 2022, the dollar index once surged to 114, and Brent retreated from highs—dollar strength was one of the key factors. So whenever someone shouts "oil is going up" or "oil is going to crash," my first reaction is to ask: which variable are you talking about? Is it OPEC+ production cuts, or peak demand season? Inventory drawdown, or geopolitical conflict? Dollar strength, or dollar weakness? If they can’t specify the variable, the conclusion is most likely just emotional. If you think I’m talking nonsense, take a screenshot and save it.

Regarding foreign policy, the more I look into it recently, the more confused I get: Is the American system really beyond saving, or are people like Trump deliberately sidelining it to focus their efforts on domestic issues, trade, and immigration? I honestly don't quite understand; is there an expert who can explain? Trump's phrase "The government has been broken for many years" sounds like a campaign slogan at first, but when placed back into concrete actions, it doesn't seem like a mere offhand remark. For example, shortly after taking office, he quickly withdrew from the TPP, later pulled out of the Paris Climate Agreement, the Iran nuclear deal, and even announced withdrawal from the WHO; he repeatedly pressured NATO allies to increase military spending, imposed tariffs on China, and pushed trade and immigration issues to the forefront of diplomacy. According to statistics from the American Foreign Service Association and other organizations, many senior State Department and ambassadorial positions remained vacant for long periods during Trump's tenure, with appointment progress at times slower than previous administrations, and frequent discussions about the loss of career diplomats and morale issues. Reports indicated that around 2020, nearly 40% of U.S. ambassador positions abroad were vacant. Around the 2018 G7 summit, disagreements between the U.S. and European allies over tariffs, climate, and Iran became public; the 2019 withdrawal from northern Syria caught Kurdish forces and some allies off guard. Putting these cases together, it really makes one wonder: Is this a deeply entrenched, hard-to-fix diplomatic system, or is the White House intentionally reducing the weight of traditional diplomacy, sidelining it, or even bypassing the State Department with an alternative approach? If it’s truly "beyond saving," the U.S. diplomatic machinery indeed suffers from bureaucratization, slow response, and partisan gridlock; if it’s "deliberately sidelined," Trump’s approach seems more like treating diplomacy as an extension of domestic politics—making deals when possible, applying pressure or withdrawing when not. So the phrase "The government has been broken for many years" sounds like a slogan, but it compresses complex issues into a mobilizing catchphrase that might obscure specific policy choices or precisely justify the "sidelining" strategy. Even now, I haven’t fully figured out whether this is a reluctant admission or a deliberate plan.