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Just two weeks ago—— oil prices soared close to $110, and inflation expectations exploded. The 10-year US Treasury yield broke 5%, hitting a 19-year high. High valuation assets were all pressed down, unable to move. Then, within 48 hours, two mountains began to shift simultaneously. The first signal: oil price collapsed WTI crude oil fell nearly 8% over four consecutive trading days, dropping below $95 per barrel, hitting a low of $91.27. Brent crude also slid from its high to around $100. Why the collapse? Trump said he was willing to meet Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi during the UN General Assembly. The market began to bet that diplomatic contact could bring easing. The supply side also improved—Saudi Arabia's September crude oil exports have recovered to over 4 million barrels per day, after only 2.4 million barrels in August. When oil prices fall, inflation expectations cool down. The second signal: 10-year US Treasury yield fell below 5% After oil prices retreated, long-term inflation pressure eased, and the 10-year US Treasury yield dropped about 4.5 basis points to 4.951%, back below 5%. It had previously touched a 19-year high of 5.041%. What do these two numbers mean? The opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets is decreasing. BTC and ETH do not generate interest. When the 10-year US Treasury yield is above 5%, institutional funds can earn a 5% risk-free return by holding government bonds. Now that number is going down, risk appetite is starting to return. As a result, you see—— Bitcoin surged from $81,000 directly to $87,000, hitting an eight-month high. Ethereum broke through $2,800. The total crypto market cap surged 5.4% in 24 hours, returning to $3 trillion. Altcoin market cap soared 13.5% in a week. Short liquidations approached $800 million. The US spot Bitcoin ETFs, after two consecutive days of outflows, recorded about $160 million net inflow again. Fidelity's FBTC saw a single-day inflow of $310.7 million, BlackRock's IBIT attracted $108.4 million. Money hasn't disappeared; it's just waiting for a reason to come back. But the 2-year US Treasury yield is still rising, at 4.738%. The short end is pricing in rate hikes, the long end is pricing in easing inflation. CME FedWatch shows a 56.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed in October. The Fed just raised rates last week to 3.75%-4.00%, and the dot plot shows at least one more hike this year. Fed official Mester said: further rate hikes may be needed. The divergence between the short and long ends is the biggest current uncertainty. The market is betting on one thing: the Fed can't hike anymore. But the Fed itself hasn't backed down yet. Oil prices and long-term interest rates are the two mountains that have been pressing down the crypto market for the past two months. Now the mountains are loosening. If US-Iran diplomatic contact makes substantial progress, oil prices will continue to fall → inflation expectations will continue to cool → long-term rates will fall further → the macro ceiling for the crypto market will be completely lifted. But if diplomacy fails, oil prices rebound, and everything returns to the original state. This is not a trend reversal; this is the "prelude" to a trend reversal. Between the prelude and the main act lies one variable—the success of diplomacy. $BTC $BZ $CL #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿