wesley教授
wesley教授
Founder of Block Infinity, Poker player, Trader, Chinese whale, @drhashclub
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Only those who short understand the pain: the real enemy is not the price, but time.
When the price surges, you actually don't panic, because you can clearly see whether your judgment was right or wrong. The most tormenting is like this week with $BTC — hovering around one level for a whole week, neither rising nor falling. The unrealized profit on the short position doesn't move, and every day watching it stay completely still, the voice in your heart saying "Did I misjudge?" grows louder.
It's the same at the poker table. Holding a good hand but waiting endlessly for the key card, the ones most likely to make foolish moves are often not those with bad hands, but those with good hands who can't wait.
Holding through a sideways market is harder than predicting the right direction. Recently, have you been shaken out by the price, or worn out by time?
A piece of news easily overlooked by the crypto community but quite significant: Tonight, the U.S. Treasury Department sent a notice to foreign banks doing business with Iran, explicitly stating that these banks may face sanctions.
This is not just a headline shouting for conflict; it is a real escalation in financial warfare—secondary sanctions targeting the flow of funds. Compared to where the aircraft carrier is deployed or who made a harsh statement, this kind of action has a more tangible impact on global capital flows: every tightening of the dollar system reduces the liquidity available to risk assets.
For those using leverage, remember that the news that truly moves the market is often not the loudest one. When watching $BTC, don’t forget to also look up at the dollar and interest rates.
Taking a quick look at oil tonight for those watching coins: WTI dropped nearly 1.9%, closing just above 89, and Brent also fell back near 100.
The interesting part is that the Middle East hasn't calmed down at all tonight—Houthis struck Saudi Arabia again, Trump said US bombers withdrew from the UK base due to a "specific threat," and the Treasury warned banks doing business with Iran would face sanctions. The news is full of tension, yet oil prices are falling.
This shows the market is no longer willing to pay for a "war premium." The panic premium previously hoarded is slowly deflating. The same goes for $BTC: stop using "buy coins to hedge during war" as a script. This round of war has been priced by the market as inflation and rate hikes, not as a safe haven. As oil falls back, it actually clarifies this logic.
U.S. stocks hit new highs again tonight, with the Nasdaq up 1%, Nvidia and SpaceX all in the green, and even Chinese concept stocks like Golden Dragon up 1.7%. With risk appetite this hot, $BTC should logically be rallying along. But if you check the market, it has been stuck around 85,000 all week, completely still.
This divergence is exactly why I have confidence in my short position. When everyone is chasing risk assets but the crypto leaders can't keep up, it means this wave of money isn't flowing into the crypto space at all. Assets that can't rally often end up being the first to catch a correction once risk appetite fades.
I'm not betting it will crash tomorrow; I'm betting this relative weakness will slowly play out over time. Do you think this week's sideways movement is a buildup for an upward move, or that no one is stepping in to buy?
A life-saving detail to discuss: where to place your stop loss. Many people set their stop loss right next to the current price, aiming to minimize losses, but then over the weekend a sudden spike hits, their position gets liquidated, and the price bounces back. Even though your directional call was correct, your money is gone. My habit is the exact opposite: I place stop losses at a wider level where the trend truly fails. I'd rather have a larger stop loss amount than hang my lifeline in the spot most vulnerable to sudden spikes that steal chips. The premise for withstanding short-term volatility is that you never start out sitting in the most vulnerable position. Remember the order: position size is derived by working backward from the stop loss distance, not the other way around.
Trump made it clear himself tonight: the factor driving up oil prices is no longer the Strait of Hormuz, but the "refineries." Russian refineries were bombed by Ukraine, and refineries in places like California have been shut down. He is preparing to sign an executive order to reduce diesel costs. For those in crypto: the supply-side pressure on oil prices is sticky; it won't dissipate with just one news report. When oil prices stay high, inflation won't come down, and if inflation doesn't come down, don't expect interest rates to ease. At the other end of this chain is every highly leveraged long position you hold. Don't just focus on the chart line; look up and watch the oil.
For those trading on leverage, remember this number tonight: the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.34%, the highest since 2002. On the same day, the Governor of the Bank of France warned that countries risk being "strangled" by interest rates. This isn't a headline that will go viral in comment sections, but it's far more important to your positions than smoke in the Middle East. Interest rates are the pricing anchor for all assets—the heavier the anchor, the harder the more speculative assets fall. $BTC holding steady in this environment is already impressive; if you expect it to soar against the trend, first ask if this yield curve agrees. Which do you trust more?
Many people see that I have $BTC and $ETH positions open in my account and ask why the price has hovered around 85,000 for a week without moving. I'm holding not because I'm stubborn. What really keeps me steady is the interest rate line: the 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to the highest level since 2002, money is getting more expensive, and the gravitational pull on risk assets will only get stronger. Floating profits and losses are just part of the process; what I focus on is whether this macro mainline has been falsified. When it reverses, I'll be the first to exit; until then, I hold. What do you think—how far can this interest rate fire burn this week?
Let's talk about a habit that can wipe out retail investor accounts: adding to losing positions to lower the average cost.
You open a position and get stuck, but instead of cutting losses, you add more at even worse prices, thinking you can lower your cost basis and wait for a rebound to break even. It sounds like cost averaging, but in reality, you're turning a small mistake into a big one. The market doesn't owe you a recovery; it will just keep moving in the direction of least resistance.
Professional players don’t double down on the next hand just because they lost the previous one—that's called being reckless, not strategy. When it's time to fold, fold and save your chips for the hands you truly have confidence in.
I'd rather accept a clean, small loss than keep feeding money into a position that has already proven me wrong. Whether it's $BTC or $ETH, your position can be wrong, but you must not sink deeper into the wrong direction.
Have you ever added to a losing position to lower your cost? How did it end for you?
TSMC hit another all-time high tonight, with a market value reaching 2.5 trillion USD; Cerebras, named by OpenAI, surged over 10% at one point. The AI hardware sector is still soaring.
Many people naturally infer: with AI booming, $BTC as a high beta risk asset should also benefit. This transmission isn't wrong, but there's a premise — money has to be loose. The current situation is that AI has pushed tech stocks' risk appetite very high, but it has also raised inflation and interest rate expectations, pulling in both directions.
I'm watching AI hardware not to find a reason to buy coins, but to see how long this risk appetite can hold. When the music stops, the highest beta assets fall first.
Do you think this AI craze is a friend to the crypto circle, or an early warning?