DL_W59
DL_W59
美股 加密 AI 18年交易韭菜 均不是投资建议
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Talking about #Bitcoin, it hasn't fallen below the 80 mark recently, so it can be said that it hasn't returned to the bottom consolidation range of 585-81 since the big drop in early February.
But recently, it has been fluctuating and exchanging hands in the 80-84 range, without a big panic sell-off or strong positive stimulus driving it up. However, the 80 support level has indeed been tested several times.
The main focus is still on the upcoming US-Iran geopolitical situation and the midterm elections, which directly affect oil prices and inflation, influencing interest rate changes.
We'll see if it breaks below the 80 integer mark to the 70s range for chip exchange.
But once a positive expectation is captured, Bitcoin might see a rebound.
I don't know if it will definitely break below the 80 integer mark, but a one-sided rise certainly won't happen that quickly.
For trading, either swing trading or holding for the mid-to-long term is fine; the 70s and 80s ranges both have cost-effectiveness, depending on each trader's preference.
DL_W59
The three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher, but Micron, SPCX, and Nvidia are still fluctuating near their lows.
Let's talk about the U.S. stock market and #Bitcoin. With oil prices high and inflation pressure still elevated, although a rate hike in October is unlikely, what about December? The game is still uncertain.
Against this backdrop, it remains difficult for the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin to achieve a strong one-sided upward trend.
For example, SPCX has fallen below $150. Although earnings reports are coming soon, the macro environment is unclear, and with a wave of unlocking ahead, there may still be good opportunities.
Similarly, Micron has dropped about 20 points compared to $1,100 in September. Although it is still above the lows since July, it is fluctuating around $800 to $900, a position with good cost-effectiveness.
Moreover, as long as there are no black swan events expected, the core heavyweight stocks in the U.S. market generally won't fall too deeply, whether in spot or futures (my strategy is to short as little as possible), so there are good opportunities.
Although earnings reports will come one after another, as mentioned earlier, the macro environment is still unclear and rate hike expectations remain. Even if earnings exceed expectations, there will still be some pressure limiting price boosts.
The three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher, but Micron, SPCX, and Nvidia are still fluctuating near their lows.
Let's talk about the U.S. stock market and #Bitcoin. With oil prices high and inflation pressure still elevated, although a rate hike in October is unlikely, what about December? The game is still uncertain.
Against this backdrop, it remains difficult for the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin to achieve a strong one-sided upward trend.
For example, SPCX has fallen below $150. Although earnings reports are coming soon, the macro environment is unclear, and with a wave of unlocking ahead, there may still be good opportunities.
Similarly, Micron has dropped about 20 points compared to $1,100 in September. Although it is still above the lows since July, it is fluctuating around $800 to $900, a position with good cost-effectiveness.
Moreover, as long as there are no black swan events expected, the core heavyweight stocks in the U.S. market generally won't fall too deeply, whether in spot or futures (my strategy is to short as little as possible), so there are good opportunities.
Although earnings reports will come one after another, as mentioned earlier, the macro environment is still unclear and rate hike expectations remain. Even if earnings exceed expectations, there will still be some pressure limiting price boosts.
PCE data basically meets expectations and actually has little impact, while the market is focusing on current oil prices and Powell's speech on Friday #Bitcoin #WTI
Powell's speech will indicate whether inflation is hawkish or dovish, and inflation depends on oil prices.
Currently, Iran says it has reached an agreement with Oman on the distribution of Strait revenues, and there is an expectation of navigation through the Strait, but the market is waiting for the US stance. If unclear, the market will worry, just like now, so the main focus is on Trump's attitude.
In the evening, oil prices began to rebound, now around 82.5. Before this post, CME's expectation for a September rate hike is above 40%, having increased. US stock indices opened lower, and #Bitcoin briefly fell below $785; the $785 level is very critical.
Before Friday, oil prices must not continue to decline below the 80-82 range. Powell's speech will definitely not be positive; it will be hawkish, and rate hike expectations will further increase. Under this background, both US stocks and Bitcoin cannot remain unaffected. Let alone expect Bitcoin to reverse into a bull run.
If oil prices continue to decline around 80, it can dispel the September rate hike expectations; Powell may not be very hawkish, but the possibility of dovishness is low. The market impact should be manageable. Then we look at August inflation data (released in September).
In summary, it still depends on Trump's attitude, which is the trend of oil prices.
In any case, personally, I think it is a bit difficult for Bitcoin to have a good bull rebound now. The best scenario is oscillation between 77-81.
Once rate hike expectations rise, market sentiment will start to seek safety again.
DYOR
Can we touch the 80s? #Bitcoin
Today it surged to 786 then dropped, previously mentioned resistance at 785, currently not holding steady
Attentive friends can see on #Tradingview that trading volume dropped after entering US time last night.
Could this be a signal of weakening momentum? Not necessarily
Previously, for the price to continue rising, trading volume needed to maintain high momentum. If it weakens, the price outlook won't be good, as marked on the chart
Weekend low liquidity, market makers on holiday. So next week's weekdays are very important, especially when entering the US time zone, whether trading volume can continue to maintain high momentum
Next week is also the second week after the rally; if momentum continues, the 80s might be expected, watching if 785-82 can hold
If momentum weakens, it may go down to find support and enter a consolidation range of 725-75, to see if it can hold steady
If 725 support fails, it may continue to drop, which would really be a bear market scenario.
During this period, macro factors and oil price trends will also affect the market
Regarding the bull rebound, next week is a critical verification moment. No long or short operations yesterday, today's price is even less suitable to enter
DYOR
Scrolling through Twitter, everyone is shouting about a bull rebound, #Bitcoin is close to around 73
Personal conclusion: the bull rebound is still early, it's still a bottom-range consolidation
Since the US stock market opened, the three major indices have all been falling. Oil prices are still surging, and the interest rate hike expectations remain around 36%
As a liquidity-sensitive asset, how could Bitcoin possibly reverse and have a bull rebound under such circumstances?
Unless the macro environment improves, at least the interest rate hike expectations drop below 10%, and the US stock market turns positive
Bitcoin's price needs to quickly break through and hold above the 76-82 range to be considered a true bull rebound and reversal.
Right now, it still belongs to the bottom consolidation range of 60-82 since the big drop in February.
Be cautious of short-term holders taking profits, after all, it has risen about 15 points from 63.
Also, be wary of macro news; once interest rate hike expectations rise again, the price could fall back as it rose.
DYOR
Good news again for #USD1, WLFI's institutional layout is upgraded 🦅
1️⃣ Former head of institutional business at Coinbase joins, bringing 30 years of deep experience in asset management, capital markets, and other fields. This may help attract asset management institutions, trading platforms, and capital market clients.
2️⃣ WLFI has received conditional approval from the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to establish its own national trust bank, bringing the issuance, redemption, custody, and reserve management of USD1 entirely in-house. This will further strengthen market confidence in USD1's "full reserve, redeemable" status.
This also indicates the potential to evolve from a stablecoin used in crypto trading to a broader institutional settlement and payment tool, with institutional channels being key. The addition of professional institutional executives suggests WLFI may be shifting from project operations to more systematic financial infrastructure development.
The combination of these two initiatives may continue to drive the growth in scale and application of USD1. For ordinary USD1 holders, this also has practical significance.
In summary: the core value lies in enhancing compliance credibility, operational autonomy, and institutional expansion capabilities.
Follow multiple aspects of progress going forward. 🦅
The above content is for information distribution and is not investment advice.
The weekend #BullCome is heating up, which reminds me of the 2021 shib, a truly phenomenal MEME that basically stayed hot throughout 2021.
As long as you didn't enter after November 2021, during the first 10 months, you could profit no matter when you got on board. Its market cap peaked above $50 billion.
Actually, it’s all a product of loose liquidity. That’s the essence. Since the low interest rates and liquidity flood of 2020-21, continuing until today. Liquidity is still not loose now. The US Federal Reserve rate is still at 3.5-3.75, whereas in 2021 it was 0-0.25.
So the market game is still about rate cut/hike expectations. How will rate hikes or cuts happen? Currently, the market watches inflation, and inflation depends on oil prices.
If there hadn’t been the US-Iran geopolitical issues at the start of the year, inflation might have eased earlier, rate cut expectations would have come sooner, and risk markets would have started anticipating liquidity easing and rallied. But there are no ifs.
Now oil prices have become less sensitive to most news; the key is the navigation issue in the Strait of Hormuz.
Last night, Iran and Oman reached an agreement, but this is not about the navigation issue in the Strait of Hormuz, so the impact on oil price volatility is limited. This is an optimistic expectation, but not overly so.
Ultimately, it still depends on Trump. With the midterm elections approaching, what will Trump choose? To continue escalating military actions or impose economic sanctions, letting oil prices gradually fall and then deal with it after the midterms?
Of course, I hope oil prices come down since I still hold short positions, and there hasn’t been further escalation since August. Trump wants oil prices down for the midterms to suppress rate hike expectations. If rate hike expectations continue rising in September and October, Trump will really be in trouble.
But no matter what, in the medium to long term, there will be no easing this year, but next year it will move towards easing.
As for the short term, at least Iran has extended an olive branch, showing active progress on one hand, and wanting the US to meet conditions to allow navigation through the strait on the other.
Let’s see how Trump advances this in the short term. Personally, I think oil prices are likely to come down soon. Of course, this is just my personal view.
Rate hike expectations haven’t been dispelled and remain unchanged; at most, I’ll do some short-term trades.
For the medium to long-term trend rebound, I’m still watching.
Ultimately, it still depends on when rate cut expectations will appear.
SK Hynix #SKHY at 167, unfortunately exited at 154. #SPCX did break above 140. But exited around 143 earlier, since there's a big wave of unlocks coming next week on the 20th, so the speculation is intense. Observing $CL for now
Only the oil price #WTI short position remains. PPI data tonight was below expectations, and as of writing, the September rate hike expectations continue to be dismissed, now below about 35%. But still somewhat high.
Although some officials are still calling for rate hikes, it's mostly expectation management and ongoing speculation, especially since this month's inflation data won't come out until September, so this month's oil price is crucial.
Currently, the US and Iran are only showing toughness on the diplomatic front, with no military escalation.
Also, oil prices briefly fell below $80 tonight, but market patience is slowly wearing thin. The situation needs to be resolved quickly, either geopolitically or by reopening the Strait of Hormuz for navigation. This would be positive for inflation easing and pushing rate hike expectations below 20%.
Otherwise, this rate hike speculation will keep worrying the market and suppress risk assets. US stocks might perform better due to earnings reports and product-driven hype, with better liquidity, but Bitcoin is stuck in a boring market.
So personally, I'm watching US stock spot first before looking for opportunities.
DYOR
DL_W59
The announcement was made, all as expected, with mild inflation. This further dispels expectations of a rate hike in September.
However, CME shows about a 38% chance of a rate hike in September. Although it's below 50%, it still makes the market uneasy, especially since oil prices remain above 80 (actually, event information is still needed to further reduce this rate hike probability).
Personally, I think a rate hike in September is still unlikely.
US stock market opened with the S&P index rebounding, #SKHY also rose above 150, and I'm still waiting to see if #SPCX can break above 140. If it does, I'll prepare to exit. After all, there is another unlocking next week.
Although this data is good, the market is still worried about geopolitics and oil prices.
I'm going to watch the official news live broadcast and the official commentators' interpretations. Recently, geopolitical escalation is unlikely, and the US may return to economic sanctions. Trump might also be frustrated because he can't strike and wants a quick victory, but Iran is stubborn. The market's patience is running thin, and oil prices have not continued to fall.
But with the midterm elections approaching and inflation conditions, Trump definitely doesn't want to see increased rate hike expectations before the midterms (November).
So the goal is to reduce inflation, which means de-escalating geopolitics, easing tensions, making peace talks, and lowering oil prices.
Trump really doesn't have much time left. At least both sides hope to negotiate because there are no further military actions.
This is also why, although recently there have been many short-term users causing unfriendly fees (recently around 0.03, previously always 0), I still hold short positions. If given another chance, I will really close them. I've held for over a month and experienced several rollercoaster rides.
DYOR
The announcement was made, all as expected, with mild inflation. This further dispels expectations of a rate hike in September.
However, CME shows about a 38% chance of a rate hike in September. Although it's below 50%, it still makes the market uneasy, especially since oil prices remain above 80 (actually, event information is still needed to further reduce this rate hike probability).
Personally, I think a rate hike in September is still unlikely.
US stock market opened with the S&P index rebounding, #SKHY also rose above 150, and I'm still waiting to see if #SPCX can break above 140. If it does, I'll prepare to exit. After all, there is another unlocking next week.
Although this data is good, the market is still worried about geopolitics and oil prices.
I'm going to watch the official news live broadcast and the official commentators' interpretations. Recently, geopolitical escalation is unlikely, and the US may return to economic sanctions. Trump might also be frustrated because he can't strike and wants a quick victory, but Iran is stubborn. The market's patience is running thin, and oil prices have not continued to fall.
But with the midterm elections approaching and inflation conditions, Trump definitely doesn't want to see increased rate hike expectations before the midterms (November).
So the goal is to reduce inflation, which means de-escalating geopolitics, easing tensions, making peace talks, and lowering oil prices.
Trump really doesn't have much time left. At least both sides hope to negotiate because there are no further military actions.
This is also why, although recently there have been many short-term users causing unfriendly fees (recently around 0.03, previously always 0), I still hold short positions. If given another chance, I will really close them. I've held for over a month and experienced several rollercoaster rides.
DYOR
DL_W59
Talk about recent positions and #WTI #SPCX $CL $SPCX
Following the logical path: oil prices --- inflation--- interest rate expectations—impacting risk markets
Come on
First, regarding the U.S.-Iran geopolitical situation, which affects oil prices. Although prices are close to $84, the news saying "the U.S. and Iran are close to reaching some kind of arrangement" indicates that conditions are still being exchanged. As long as the escalation does not continue, oil prices will not be stimulated to rise
But the market's patience is limited; let's see if concrete arrangements can be made in the coming days
Personally, I don't think the price will keep rising and probably won't be very high. So still holding short positions at oil prices means users are trading aggressively, which makes the rates less friendly, which is quite heartbreaking.
If this trend continues to fall, around 75, I'll have to wait for a chance to level out completely.
Next, tonight's CPI data is still expected to be quite good. If inflation continues to ease, expectations for future rate hikes will definitely be further dispelled, which could potentially raise expectations for rate cuts in Q4
This is favorable for US stocks and Bitcoin. So my #SPCX is still holding, waiting tonight to see if I can leverage good CPI data and see if there's a chance to break through 140, then I'm ready to leave completely.
The market is all waiting for a direction to choose tonight. As of writing, the rate hike expectation for September is about 50%.
Of course, if there is a major upset in CPI or even a geopolitical upgrade, oil prices will rebound
Then let's talk about another story
Let's hope things move in a positive direction.
DYOR