wesley教授
wesley教授
Founder of Block Infinity, Poker player, Trader, Chinese whale, @drhashclub
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Tonight, a set of Hong Kong stock signals is worth the crypto community's attention: the PCB sector is collectively strengthening, with Kingboard Laminates rising nearly 9%, and AI hardware chain companies like Victory Macro Technology all following suit. Additionally, Toshiba recently made a major expansion in data center hard drive capacity after many years, signaling a consistent trend that this wave of AI investment is truly hitting the physical supply chain.
I've always said, to judge whether AI is a bubble, don't look at PPTs and valuations, but whether orders have reached the most cumbersome parts like copper foil, hard drives, and electronics. Now it seems the demand is real; whether prices are overextended is another matter.
The spillover effect on crypto is simple: when money flows into AI hardware with a certain narrative, pure risk appetite assets like $BTC have to take a back seat. Do you think this AI wave is genuine demand, or just another round of hot potato?
This weekend, crude oil is being pulled in both directions, which is worth noting for those dealing with risk assets. On one hand, Saudi Arabia's east-west oil pipeline has resumed oil exports, easing supply concerns; on the other hand, US-Iran negotiations are still stuck, with occasional smoke from the Strait of Hormuz, and Japan today simply announced it will no longer release oil from its national reserves.
Why does the oil price relate to the coins you buy? The chain is like this: once oil spikes due to geopolitical reasons, inflation expectations rise accordingly, calls for interest rate hikes grow louder, and risk assets are the first to get hit. So don't believe the notion "buy coins to hedge when there's a war"—if a real war breaks out, oil rises, inflation and tightening expectations increase, and $BTC is often the one that gets hit along with them.
Right now, it's a tug of war between bulls and bears, with no clear direction. But you need to keep this thread in your hand.
Tonight, those watching crypto put something back on the table: the US dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged to 102.45 intraday, while the euro against the dollar was pressed down to just above 1.11, hitting a new low since May 2025.
This isn’t just a game within the forex circle. The strengthening dollar essentially means global funds are shrinking into dollar assets; risk assets, emerging markets, and crypto—these "remote" things—all have to give way first. In past rounds where $BTC couldn’t rise, there was often a climbing dollar behind it.
So don’t just focus on the liquidation numbers on the contract leaderboard; first, look up and see where the DXY is heading. If the dollar doesn’t turn around, the ceiling for risk assets will remain there. Tonight, are you watching the coin price or the dollar?
Let's talk about the most common mistake retail investors make: locking themselves into one direction. Some are always long and feel uncomfortable seeing red; others treat being "short gods" as a belief, stubbornly holding short positions even when prices skyrocket.
This week, many people have been watching me closely, sometimes short, sometimes long. To be clear, going long or short is just two tools for me—whichever has better odds at the moment, I use it, no emotions, no baggage. The ones who really lose big are those who commit to one direction and then use all their subsequent positions to prove they were right initially.
It's the same with poker; no hand is "destined" to be played. Fold when you should, raise when you should. Whether it's $BTC or $ETH, they don't owe you a direction. Which type are you: a die-hard bull or a die-hard bear?
A piece of news that’s easily dismissed as just motivational fluff: SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son has rarely issued a warning about AI safety. Keep in mind, he’s one of the world’s biggest backers of AI, so the fact that he’s proactively calling for caution sends a signal heavier than the words themselves. My trading instinct tells me that when the most steadfast bulls start talking about risks, it often means sentiment has risen to a level that even insiders find unsettling. On top of that, the White House has set up a new AI task force, aiming to deliver a risk assessment report within about a hundred days, so regulatory scrutiny is advancing. What does this have to do with $BTC? AI and crypto share the same pool of risk-seeking capital, so if one side cools down, it’s hard for the other to remain unaffected. Do you think AI is a bubble right now?
A reminder for those using leverage to go long on risk assets: don't just focus on the crypto scene. The latest CME interest rate futures show that the market believes there's nearly an 80% chance the Fed will hold steady in October, but by December, the cumulative probability of a rate hike exceeds 60%, with a 25 basis point increase being the most likely. To put it plainly, the mainstream bet now isn't on a rate cut, but rather on another hike by the end of the year. Interest rates are the gravitational force over risk assets; with rate hike expectations still looming, expecting $BTC to launch a smooth, strong bull run is logically missing a key piece. Don't use last year's rate cut cycle mindset to analyze this year's game. Do you think there will be a hike in December or not?
This morning, the three coins rebounded together, but the strength difference was very obvious: $SOL was the strongest, $ETH the weakest, and $BTC was in the middle. I have an old habit when shorting — I always target the weakest leg. When prices rise, it rises the most reluctantly, and once it turns down, it breaks support first. Conversely, if you want to go long, you should pick the strongest one. Many retail investors do the opposite: chasing the strongest to buy high, and holding on to the most resistant to decline when shorting, ending up getting hit from both sides. Strength rotation is not mysticism; it’s capital voting with its feet, telling you who is strong and who is weak. Don’t go against the strongest asset, and don’t expect the weakest to hold the flag for you. Which one do you hold now — the strongest or the weakest among the three?
$BTC has climbed back above 86,000; this move is targeting my short position. Many people think that when short sellers see the price rising, they should panic and close their positions, but it's actually the opposite. When I judge whether a trade is still valid, I never look at whether today's unrealized profit has turned into a loss; instead, I check if the original entry logic has been truly falsified. The weekend's low-volume rally is more about risk appetite warming up and thin order books pushing the price, not a solid confirmation of a trend reversal. When the market hits you in the face, first ask yourself: is the thesis wrong, or is it just noise? The responses to these two situations are completely different—if the former, admit the mistake and exit; if the latter, hold on. When the price moves against you, do you panic?
A piece of news easily overlooked by the crypto community: According to The Wall Street Journal, the US has withdrawn all B-1 bombers from the UK airbase.
This carries much more information than the shouting and fighting in the comment sections. Deploying heavy bombers to the front line signals escalation; pulling them back usually signals de-escalation. To read the direction of the Middle East situation, watch military deployments that require real money, not who’s shouting loudest on social media.
Don’t rush to conclusions about the implications for $BTC: geopolitical cooling is positive for risk appetite on one hand, but it also removes some of the war premium from oil prices, so the direction isn’t necessarily one-sided. I’m currently holding a double short; this downgrade signal is a headwind for me, I admit, but I won’t panic close positions just because of one news item.
Do you trust the smoke in the comment section, or the flight path of the bombers more?