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$ZEC bounced back from 1271 to 1355, a rebound of over 4%. No specific news was found; it's more likely a technical correction.
There's still about a 20% gap to 1699, so it's not out of the woods yet, but at least it’s no longer hitting new lows.
The script hasn't changed these past few days—price can move up or down without news, so don't look for reasons in the rearview mirror.
$BTC's ETF funds are recovering, while $ETH's are flowing out, yet both coins are rising almost equally sharply—this kind of "fund divergence, price convergence" combination usually doesn't last long.
After the US BTC spot ETF ended 9 trading days with a cumulative net inflow of about $3.1 billion, it recorded a net inflow of about $103 million on October 1 and another $31.7 million on October 2, restoring inflows for two consecutive days. Conversely, the ETH spot ETF has seen net outflows for 4 consecutive trading days since September 29, with a net outflow of about $17.3 million on October 2, totaling approximately $135 million over four days.
But screenshots show this divergence hasn't reflected in prices yet: BTC pulled back from 83,884 to the current price of 86,309.9, up 1.77%; ETH similarly rebounded from 2,651 to the current price of 2,727.56, up 1.47%—both with very close amplitude. More notably, the RSI has surged into extreme ranges, with BTC's RSI6 reaching 93.41 and ETH's RSI6 at 84.82, clearly indicating short-term overbought conditions.
The contradiction is: this ETH rebound lacks real ETF fund support and is more a follow-up to BTC sentiment; once BTC corrects due to overbought conditions, ETH, lacking independent fund backing, will likely fall faster. The phase of fund and price divergence is a window to discern whether the rally is solid, not a good time to chase gains.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
15 days left until CME launches $BCH futures.
On the announcement day, BCH surged over 25% to $338; now at 317.9, about 6% lower than then. It was hit down to 296.3 in the early morning, then climbed back up steadily.
The money bought in advance on expectations has already gone through a round; next, it depends on whether there will be real institutional transactions to take over after the launch on the 19th. The launch itself is still awaiting regulatory review. The range these two days is between 296 and 323.
$XAU gold has dropped from 4698.8 in mid-September to 4149.8 now, a nearly 12% decline.
The root cause is the Federal Reserve — the September meeting released a hawkish signal, saying there will likely be only one rate cut in 2026, and the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to a new high near 5.3%. Gold does not yield interest, so it is the first to be sold off in such times.
The same driver is behind the recent drops in $BTC and $ZEC, it’s not that gold itself has problems.
The nonfarm payrolls were shockingly bad, and $BTC's first reaction was to surge to 87,238—but it didn’t hold that breath, and a few hours later, all the gains were given back.
US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected roughly 90,000; the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, also higher than expected. Even worse, the previous two months were sharply revised down—August from 162,000 to 133,000, July from an increase of 21,000 to a decrease of 10,000, totaling 60,000 fewer jobs added over two months. September hourly wages rose only 0.1% month-over-month, showing cooling in both employment and wages.
After the data release, the market reacted textbook-style: weak employment lowered the probability of another rate hike in October, stocks, gold, and Bitcoin all rose together, US Treasury yields fell accordingly, while oil prices dropped more than 3%. BTC followed this logic and surged to 87,238.3.
But screenshots show this high point didn’t hold—RSI dropped from an overbought zone near 80 to an oversold zone near 20, and the current price fell back to 84,673.7, basically giving back all the "data-driven" gains. This indicates the news triggered an emotional reaction at the moment it landed, but the buying momentum didn’t follow through, and the rally couldn’t sustain its own weight.
The real variable isn’t whether the nonfarm payrolls were bad or not, but whether the October rate hike will proceed as planned—the rise in the unemployment rate in this report is mainly due to an increase in labor force participation, not simply worsening employment. How the Federal Reserve interprets this detail is more critical than the headline numbers.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
This week in the US stock storage sector: good news doesn't push prices up, bad news can't break them down
Monday was slammed, Micron's earnings report came Wednesday night, and the Asian market rebounded first on Thursday. Why was Monday slammed? Over the weekend, Bloomberg reported that Solidigm, a subsidiary of SK Hynix, is considering going public in the U.S. as early as next year, with a valuation of up to $100 billion. During Monday's Seoul session, SK Hynix fell about 5%, major shareholder SK Square dropped over 8%, and U.S. storage stocks weakened accordingly, with Micron down 3% to 4% in early trading. The market's concern is not supply, but SK Group's already complex shareholding structure and the dilution of SK Hynix's equity in the NAND business after the spin-off. Micron's earnings: very good, but no rise. Revenue was $54.2 billion, up 379% year-over-year, gross margin 87%, next quarter guidance $60 billion to $63 billion, over 75% of 2027 fiscal year shipments already locked in, shortage expected to continue until 2028. After-hours stock price fluctuated within 1%, basically unchanged. My judgment: the market is not buying performance now, but certainty beyond performance. Mechanism: long-term supply agreements lock in prices and shipment volumes in advance, cyclical stocks are priced like growth stocks, valuations are more sensitive to marginal changes, so good news is only enough to prevent a drop, while equity structure news like Solidigm's can cause a drop of more than 5%. Who is catching up? On Thursday, KOSPI rose nearly 2% to 6,971, Samsung rose about 2.8%, SK Hynix rose about 3.2%. September South Korean chips
$UNI is neither rising nor falling right now; it's holding back.
The Bollinger Bands are only 0.38 USD wide, with 8.45 as support and 9.2 as resistance. Whichever side breaks first will decide the direction.
$ZEC tried twice last night to break above 1,480 but couldn't hold, now closing at 1,437, back inside the range.
The previous move looked more like short covering, not a trend reversal.
After dropping from 1,697 to 1,355, the rebound met resistance with no follow-through, RSI(6) fell from 75 to 49, the overheat cooled off, no clear direction yet.
The current range is between 1,400 and 1,450; only a break below the lower edge is concerning, and holding above 1,480 would signal strength.
$BTC has put on a complete textbook example of a shakeout for me these past few days.
First, it surged up to 85258 with strong momentum, but after hitting that high, it reversed sharply and dropped all the way down to 82556. That drop was really fast, with almost no decent rebound, making me sweat for the bulls holding long positions.
Then over the last two days, it slowly climbed back up, hovering above 84000 for a while. Yesterday it pushed up near 84500 but was slammed back down, now sitting at 83683. It’s up a bit but basically stuck in limbo.
Honestly, looking at this movement, it seems like it’s digested all the divergences accumulated around 85000 in the past few days. First it crushed the longs, then the shorts, and now it’s back in the middle. The RSI is stuck around 50, showing no clear direction.
I personally didn’t dare to bottom-fish around 82500—not because I didn’t see it as a low point, but that bearish candle was so fast and brutal that my mind couldn’t keep up with my hands. Looking back now, I missed out, but to be honest, bottom-fishing in that waterfall drop carries risks and rewards that don’t balance well for a cautious person like me.
It’s been sideways here for two days now, with the 84000 line becoming the tug-of-war focus. If it breaks above, it might retest 85000; if it can’t hold, it might fall back to test the 82500 pit again. Anyway, I’m just watching the show. In these stuck phases, it’s better to think than to act. #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
Solana led the decline today, which is a different story from $BTC and $ETH — the core development team confirmed today that the Alpenglow upgrade is still on the testnet, with no set date for the mainnet, completely contradicting the previous expectation of "mainnet launch in late September." SOL surged from 112 to 124 in the past few weeks, largely driven by this expectation building long positions. Once the expectation was disproven, event-driven longs immediately closed their positions and exited, which is the direct reason $SOL dropped to 116.61. At the same time, on-chain monitoring detected a transfer of 500,000 SOL (about $60.5 million) to Binance, a typical sell pressure signal.
The decline in BTC and ETH follows a different logic: strong economic data pushed up inflation expectations, US Treasury yields came under pressure and rose, combined with Middle East geopolitical tensions supporting the US dollar, all together lowering the market's risk appetite for high-beta assets — as shown in the chart, BTC fell back to 83,006, ETH retracted to 2659.42, both passive declines without new bad news.
The difference is this: SOL's story was disproven, while BTC and ETH are facing a cooling environment. Without a set date for Alpenglow, SOL is unlikely to have an independent rally; BTC and ETH are waiting for a turning point in US Treasury yields, not a project announcement.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #ETH冲高2700美元，质押与资金面现分化
