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挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
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本周末,沙特与胡塞武装冲突升级,特朗普频频暗示将对伊朗发动进一步行动。 按照传统剧本,这种时候资金应该疯狂逃离风险资产,冲向美元、黄金、美债。 但周一早上比特币加速回升,再度冲击8.7万美元,暂报86,671美元,24小时涨幅1.35% 战争在升级,加密资产在涨。 3500亿美元。 这是中东和北非地区一年的区块链交易额。2022年这个数字是1000亿。三年翻了三倍多。 比特币政策研究所9月4日的报告:“冲突如何重塑中东的数字资产使用”。核心结论一句话—— “地区冲突通常会加速资本外流。但伊朗冲突呈现出不同的动态:资本没有离开该地区,而是越来越多地转向了数字资产。 ” 翻译成人话:钱没有跑。钱换了跑道。 传统剧本说:战争 → 资本外逃 → 美元/黄金受益。 这一次:战争 → 资本留在了链上。 海湾国家主动搭台,吸引机构资金。 阿联酋和巴林在干什么?不是在封杀加密,而是在建监管框架、发牌照、抢机构。 今年5月,Kraken母公司Payward拿到了迪拜虚拟资产监管局的初步授权,可以开展经纪交易和投资管理业务。 一边是货币贬值把老百姓逼上链,一边是监管框架把机构请进门。两条路,同一个方向。 2025年6月以色列和伊朗开打的时候,比特币的第一反应是跟股票一起跌。 没有表现出任何“数字黄金”的避险属性。投资者先减仓避险,比特币最低触及6.3万美元。 但接下来发生的事情才是关键—— 投资者开始从风险更高的山寨币转入比特币,推动比特币在加密市场中的份额升至64.8%的一个月高点。 价格在持续战火中稳住了。 什么意思? 市场在最恐慌的时候,选择的是比特币,不是黄金,不是美元现金。 当然,比特币第一次的反应是跟着风险资产跌,这一点必须诚实承认——它当时还不是“避险资产”。但战火持续之后,资金的选择变了。 10月初的数据在印证这个趋势: 10月1日,比特币现货ETF总净流入1.03亿美元,贝莱德IBIT单日净流入1.96亿美元,历史总净流入达到655.74亿美元。 10月5日,SEC批准了Cboe BZX交易所的规则修改,允许Volatility Shares发行3倍比特币期货ETF及另外5只杠杆产品。 加密恐惧与贪婪指数从10月1日的74降至10月3日的67,仍处于“贪婪状态”。 ETF在吸筹,杠杆产品在获批,情绪在贪婪。 传统叙事框架里,中东动荡 = 油价涨 = 通胀压力 = 美联储不敢降息 = 风险资产承压。 这个逻辑链条在2026年被打破了。 原因是链上交易全天候运转。传统市场休市的时候,加密市场还在跑。局势越动荡,这个优势越明显。 战争来了,银行关门了,交易所停了。但你的比特币钱包,永远在线。 所有人都在讨论美联储加不加息、摩根大通转不转谨慎、沃什周五说什么。 但中东的资金已经给出了答案。 当霍尔木兹海峡的油轮在燃烧,中东的资本正在链上寻找避风港。 这才是这轮BTC上涨最被低估的叙事。 $BTC $BZ #BTC现货ETF重回流入,ETH资金持续流出 $XAU
挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
Why did PONS's buyback engine fail? A textbook case of a "fee buyback" model Last month, PONS was still called "the most profitable money printer on Robinhood Chain." Daily revenue was close to $2 million, with daily buybacks exceeding $1 million. Uniswap Labs personally invested, and the token's market cap surged from $35 million to $500 million in a week and a half, reaching an all-time high of $0.97. Early buyers turned $2,600 into $1.2 million. At that time, everyone thought PONS had found the perfect solution for Meme coins—using real cash income to buy back and burn tokens, turning speculative assets into cash flow assets. One month later. PONS's market cap dropped to $414 million, down more than 58% from the peak of $990 million. Daily revenue fell from nearly $2 million to about $240,000, a decline of about 88%. Daily buybacks plummeted from over $1 million to less than $200,000. This is not an ordinary correction. This is a "buyback engine" stalling in broad daylight. How exactly does PONS's buyback engine work? Pons is a Meme coin issuance platform on Robinhood Chain. Users issue tokens and trade on the platform, generating fees. The fee distribution path is: Trading fees → Creators get 70%, protocol gets 30% → 80% of protocol income is used to buy back and burn PONS, 20% for operations. As of early September, PONS had burned about 29% of the initial supply. This logic sounds flawless: The more active the platform → the more fees → the more buybacks → the less circulating supply → the higher the price → attracting more participants → the platform becomes more active. A perfect positive flywheel. But the premise of the flywheel is "the more active the platform." The fatal turning point: activity is not constant, it is variable Data shows that from September 29 to October 2, Pons V2's daily token issuance averaged 6,768, down about 72% from early September. Daily fees dropped from $6.87 million to $1.48 million, a decline of about 78%. Token issuance plummeted 72%, fees dropped 78%. Buyback funds shrank by nearly 90%. Daily buybacks fell from over $1 million to less than $200,000. What’s more painful is this created a "death spiral" feedback loop: On-chain speculative activity cools → token issuance and trading volume decline → fee income crashes → buyback scale collapses → price loses support and continues to fall → profit-making effect disappears → participants exit further → activity cools further. Each link feeds the next. The colder it gets, the more it falls; the more it falls, the colder it gets. PONS founder Ozzy admitted in response to community doubts on October 3: the buyback rate "has not yet been adjusted," and the previous "claim" step "has not been fully decentralized," with about $440,000 accumulated in the custody account waiting to be claimed for over 5 days without transfer. In plain language: even the buyback execution itself broke down. Why is Uniswap's "buyback" more stable than PONS's? Many compare PONS and Uniswap because both do "protocol income → token buyback." But their tokenomics underlying logic is completely different. PONS's model: Protocol income → 80% used for buyback and burn → reduce circulating supply → support price. Value capture fully depends on the amount of buyback funds. Buyback funds = fees × 80%. Fees = token issuance × trading volume × rate. Token issuance is a derivative of the Meme market. When Meme hype fades, everything goes to zero. Uniswap's model: Fee switch directs about 17% of swap fees to protocol income, used to buy back and burn UNI, reducing annual supply by about 0.4%. UNI's current daily income is about $129,000, with 30-day income about $4.9 million. But the key difference is: UNI's value does not rely on buybacks to "support" it. UNI is a governance token; holders have voting rights on the protocol fee switch and treasury governance. Buyback and burn is a value accumulation bonus, not the sole pillar of price support. PONS treats buybacks as the engine. Uniswap treats buybacks as turbocharging. If the engine stalls, the car stops. If the turbo breaks, the car can still run. This is not just PONS's problem; it's a common issue with the entire model By 2026, over 100 crypto projects shut down or went bankrupt, with most altcoins retreating 70% to 90% from their highs. Cases of buyback failure are numerous: Jupiter: spent over $70 million on buybacks in 2025, JUP fell about 76.7% for the year. Co-founder SIONG publicly reflected: "Buybacks didn't work; maybe we should spend money on user growth?" Pump.fun: $330 million annual revenue, spent $315 million on buybacks, token dropped 60% after launch. Helium: founder directly announced stopping HNT buybacks, citing "market almost no reaction to project buybacks." A tracking of 159 token buyback projects shows: excluding the outlier Hyperliquid, buyback and burn tokens averaged a 56% decline. One token determines the fate of the entire category. The rest are all losing money. PONS's problem is not that the "buyback mechanism is broken." The buyback mechanism was never "good." This model's premise is continuous growth in fee income. But Meme market activity is cyclical, sentiment-driven, and unpredictable. You are using an unpredictable variable to support a mechanism that requires certainty. It's like building a foundation with sand on the beach. It looks beautiful at high tide, but at low tide, nothing is left. PONS's lesson is worth remembering for all Meme projects relying on "income buybacks": When your token price is built on protocol income, you are no longer a Meme—you are a cash flow asset without a moat. $PONS $HOOD $AI

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