NEAR at $4.85, do you dare to chase it?
From 1.89 to 5.54 in one month, ETF net inflows of 52.8 million in the first three days, nearly tripled — but on-chain execution layer fees plunged from 120,000 per week to 20,000. Price is rising, business is shrinking. Are you chasing real demand or a castle in the air?
First, look at the surface: doubling in a month, ridiculously strong.
It was 1.89 on September 1, closed at 5.34 at the end of September, surged to 5.54 on October 1, now retracing to 4.85. Up 125% in 30 days, clearly stronger than BTC, showing relative strength from the AI + cross-chain narrative. Market cap around 6 billion, Binance perpetual positions at 257 million, up 4% in 24 hours, 8-hour funding rate +0.01% — bulls are paying. The candlesticks tell you: daily is still above all major moving averages, 50-day MA remains above 200-day MA, RSI dropped from above 70 to a strong 65 zone. Daily bulls are alive, short-term digesting overbought.
First point: This rally is not about Gas business, but the "cross-chain solver".
Many think NEAR is rising because on-chain activity returned. Big mistake.
Execution layer fees dropped from about 120,000 per week at the start of 2025 to about 20,000 now. A drop of 83%.
So why is the price rising? Because of NEAR Intents. Cross-chain transactions have accumulated over $27 billion, covering more than 30 chains, now accounting for about 85% of protocol revenue. Subsidies burning relay transactions are gone, native activity declined, and token burn has fallen from highs.
In plain language:
NEAR’s current valuation bets not on how many people use this chain, but on how much it can earn as a "cross-chain matching intermediary".
The price is rising on the "solver," not "Gas." This narrative is good, but you need to know what you’re buying.
Second point: The ETF is real, but its scale doesn’t explain the entire rise.
Bitwise’s NEAR spot ETF (NRR) is trading on NYSE Arca, with net inflows of about $52.8 million in the first three trading days. The fund also stakes holdings to share yields with holders. This is a formal institutional channel, a long-term positive without question.
But note — from 1.89 to 5.54, nearly tripled, market cap surged from 2 billion to 6 billion. Can $52.8 million explain this rise?
No.
So in this rally, the ETF is a catalyst, but the real driver is expectations: a supply reduction vote is on the way, a governance proposal aims to cut annual issuance from 2.5% to 1.6%, to be completed in 24 months, roughly reducing about 66 million NEAR tokens released. But this is an expectation; the vote is tentatively set for mid-October and not finalized.
You’re buying not what has happened, but what hasn’t happened yet. Ponder this sentence three times.
Third point: The technicals have reached a critical decision point.
From 5.54 dropped to 4.55, tested bottom twice, today pulled back to 4.85. 4.85 is near the 7-day MA, just below the first resistance — this is the rebound center, not the main uptrend start.
Daily ATR about 0.5-0.6 dollars, piercing two levels in one day is normal. The 4-hour retracement is not finished yet.
Only two paths ahead:
Daily close above 5.08 and hold → repair and upgrade, target 5.27-5.40, only talk 6.0 after surpassing 5.54
Close below 4.55 → this wave changes from "retracement" to "deeper correction," look at 4.47, deeper is the 4.00-4.10 moving average cluster
4.85 is neither a good long entry nor a good short entry. It’s the middle ground — the place most likely to get repeatedly slapped.
Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself:
On the bullish side:
Daily bullish structure intact, 50-day MA above 200-day MA
ETF formal channel open, 52.8 million inflow in first three days
Intents cross-chain transactions over $27 billion, 85% of protocol revenue
Supply reduction vote on the way, pre-implementation expectation
Perpetual positions increasing, positive funding rate, bulls paying
Doubled in a month, clearly stronger than BTC
On the bearish side:
125% rise in 30 days, large profit-taking pressure
On-chain execution layer fees plunged 83%, native activity down
DeFi TVL just over 100 million, narrative ahead of on-chain lock-up
Double resistance at 4.94/5.08, previous high 5.54 close but hard to break
Supply cut still a proposal, vote may be rejected
BTC in 83,000-87,200 range, breaking 83,800 high beta first retraces
CPI/FOMC/PCE triple hit coming
Key level 4.85, resistance above 4.94, support below 4.55.
Resistance above: 4.94 → 5.08 → 5.27-5.40 → 5.54 (previous high) → 6.0
Support below: 4.71 → 4.55-4.64 (strong support) → 4.47 → 4.17 → 4.00-4.10
Trading strategy
This is the rebound center, above is 4.94/5.08. Wait for 4-hour close to hold 5.08 with volume, then look at 5.27-5.40, stop loss below 4.78. Only talk 6.0 after surpassing 5.54. Chasing the middle is just giving money to the market.
Buy on dips (better risk-reward):
Prefer to wait for 4.55-4.64 to show a long lower shadow stop, then scale in, stop loss below 4.42. First target back to 4.94, hold then look at 5.08. Much better risk-reward than chasing 4.85.
Short-term shorts only on resistance:
Rebound 4.94-5.08 with volume upper shadow, 4-hour close can’t reclaim, light short, stop loss above 5.15, target 4.64/4.55. Don’t guess the top at 4.85 middle, daily MAs still below.
Invalidation conditions (must remember):
Daily close below 4.55 → exit longs
Supply cut vote rejected → breakout above 5.08 downgraded
BTC effectively breaks 83,800 → relative strength will be suppressed
Not suitable for high leverage overnight before CPI
NEAR leverage should be lower than BTC, single trade risk controlled within 1% of account. High volatility coin, over 5x leverage prone to liquidation.
You think NEAR is rising on on-chain business, but it’s actually rising on ETF expectations + cross-chain narrative + supply cut imagination space
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