UKong🥷🪃

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Some public chains and projects have been shutting down intermittently, and BTC also tested 80,000 yesterday. Overall liquidity in crypto has actually been decreasing. But a very clear trend is that RWA's share of trading volume in crypto is growing larger, and major CEXs have all entered the space. Checking the top trading volumes on major CEXs, you can see the presence of RWA US stocks. This is one of the reasons why @okxchinese #outcomes S3 focuses on finance. Besides guiding and training you to become a crypto player, it also helps you become a multi-talented US stock trader. Moreover, this process is completely free, accompanied by multiple supporting reward activities throughout S3. In addition to prediction positions and trade sharing, there is also the combo winning streak event under Aibo @misaENFP. You can check out Misa's write-up, which is super clear and detailed ⤵️ So, during earnings season, analysis and prediction should not stop. This is one reason I always recommend everyone to seriously participate in S3 — to follow industry trends, continuously learn and evolve with the market, and grab some easy profits along the way. Let's talk about Netflix $NFLX earnings predictions. After checking various prediction markets, I think there is an opportunity for information arbitrage and data update lag here. The current benchmark in prediction markets is $0.84 per share, which is actually Netflix's guidance from July. However!! The latest guidance from Netflix has been lowered to $0.82~ Netflix's guidance has historically been quite accurate, and in most cases, the actual EPS reported is slightly higher than the guidance. If the rule requires strictly greater than $0.84, the actual reported EPS needs to be ≥ $0.85 to count as Yes, about 3.7% higher than the guidance. The prediction essentially asks whether Netflix can beat its own guidance by at least $0.03 — based on the implied share count from the guidance, net profit needs to be about $3.56B, roughly $100M (+3%) more than the guidance, meaning operating margin would rise from 33.2% to about 34.2%, or be made up by tax rate/forex/buybacks. Bullish factors: content amortization slows down in the second half of the year (about +10% for the full year); guidance is usually conservative, Q2 slightly exceeded; stock price dropped to $67–80, buybacks could passively lift EPS; every 1pct lower tax rate adds about $0.01. Bearish factors: company states guidance is the internal real forecast, no deliberate suppression; severance for about 1,000 layoffs if counted in Q3 would directly lower GAAP EPS; revenue growth slows, low probability of EPS driven by outperformance. Probability split: operating margin reaching 34%+ about 30–35%; 33.5–34% supplemented by tax rate/forex/buybacks about 10%. Overall diluted EPS about 40–45%, most likely result $0.83–0.84; basic EPS settlement raises it to about 55%. Conclusion: baseline expectation $0.83–0.84, probability of exceeding $0.84 less than half. On earnings day, watch two points: whether operating margin exceeds 34%, and whether there is a one-time layoff expense; also confirm settlement basis. Based on this calculation, I would go all in on NO. #OKXExperts #TradeTradFiComeToOKX #OKXUSStockEarningsSeason