诸葛投研✊
诸葛投研✊
17年进圈，9年web3老玩家，券商原持牌投顾。合约爆过仓，现在只玩主流币现货，向段永平看齐。
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$NEAR has risen 156% in three months, and with such a big hack news on the 1st, it only retraced 15% after 4 days, which seems a bit unreal:
The real driver is the growth of NEAR Intents, with a cumulative cross-chain settlement of $32.79 billion, a daily volume of $2.14 billion, and a single-day DEX volume surpassing Avalanche; native TVL is between $194 million and $230 million.
There is also an expectation that before the 11th, a vote will reduce the inflation from 2.5% to 1.6% (about 66 million tokens will never be minted).
Currently, the aftermath of the $3.8 million hack on the project team has not yet dissipated, so everyone should be cautious and observe for now. Support is at 4.5; if it breaks, look at 4.2. If it stands above 5.6, it means the hacker shadow is completely gone and a recovery rally is underway.
The banking narrative really isn't appealing anymore. After the Seoul conference ended and the lively presence of the four major banks dispersed, the price of $XRP is even lower than before the event.
Even though 6.68 million ETF tokens flowed back on Friday and institutional channels remain active, the downward trend of the coin price couldn't be stopped. This indicates that the selling pressure above 1.55 is thicker than expected.
XRPN's listing on Nasdaq next week is a potential catalyst, and the XRP treasury stock channel has widened again, but such news hasn't been able to drive the spot market recently, so don't go heavy in advance. Until the range breaks, it's a market for selling high and buying low; chasing breakouts is a big no-no.
诸葛投研✊
The narrative of bank-backed projects is no longer popular. At today's Seoul $XRP meeting, the four major financial institutions in South Korea were all present, considering using RLUSD for cross-border payments and tokenized government bond settlements. But the coin price showed little movement.
The same goes for $SOL. The bank stablecoin Roughrider Coin launched on Solana, with over 90 banks and credit unions in North Dakota connected for interbank settlements, yet the price remains stuck at 120.
The key point is that both tokens have solid applications in traditional institutions: Kbank in Korea has already implemented blockchain cross-border payments and is exploring using Ripple infrastructure for tokenized government bond settlements. Solana is also genuinely landing in traditional banking payment channels.
It can only be said that bank-backed projects are slow variables, supporting the bottom but not the surge; for a surge, it still depends on market speculation sentiment and the overall market mood.
+31.21%
Snapshot at Oct 03, 2026, 20:43
Yesterday, after I said I opened a short position on $ZEC, several fans asked why:
In short, it boils down to one sentence: success and failure both come from regulation. I think $ZEC is facing a double blow from regulation and valuation.
Regulation is because of the BG hack where 3.9 million ZEC dirty funds entered the privacy pool, but no one can be directly traced on-chain.
Previously, everyone said ZEC found a balance between regulation and privacy, being both private and compliant with regulatory requirements. Now it's getting serious. If it fails this big test, the previously hyped compliance will just be empty promises.
As for valuation, the data speaks for itself: in recent days, $ZEC has seen $60 million outflow from ZCSH, and AUM dropped from a peak of $1 billion to $818 million. This shows institutions are using real money to hedge risks.
Regarding technical analysis, under the big picture of fundamentals, it becomes relatively less important.
+17.71%
Snapshot at Oct 04, 2026, 16:25
The gameplay of meme coins has changed. $PUMP rose 29% in seven days, while $DOGE fell 4% in seven days, which is evidence.
The old meme coins were about community sentiment and hype speculation. Now meme coins require much more—they need on-chain revenue and real buybacks. The entire basket of meme coins with no income and pure speculation is being redeemed.
For established memes like DOGE, ETFs have no institutional players, and there are no retail investors on-chain. Without a new story, it can only follow the market rotation.
$PUMP is doing much better. The official burned 210 million tokens the day before yesterday, and this morning it directly broke through the 0.006 whole number level with high volume. The MA30 has been left far behind. Its total supply has been burned by 16.9%, and every day's opening comes with net buying pressure.
+5.89%
Snapshot at Oct 04, 2026, 14:53
$SOL's monthly active addresses have reached 123 million, the chain is heating up, but the coin price has been stagnant and oscillating. This indicates a gap between fundamentals and price, which I think is a good opportunity:
Many friends have probably noticed that Solana's monthly active addresses hit a record 123 million in October, a 42% surge from September, while it was only 12.7 million at the beginning of the year.
Especially, $PUMP surged 29% last week, reigniting the meme engine, with on-chain revenue and activity both solid.
So on Friday, ETFs flowed back $11.45 million, and institutions are blindly increasing their positions.
I believe with Solana's strong on-chain data momentum, the price will eventually catch up. For those holding spot, hold tight and don't mess around.
+66.02%
Snapshot at Oct 04, 2026, 09:51
$BNB is almost at 800, but $OKB is still hovering around 120. I see everyone is focused on the launch event.
Looking at it this way, at least there's one advantage: $OKB won't drop just because the launch event falls short of expectations. After all, it hasn't been hyped up yet, which means expectations aren't high.
OKB's order book is clean: it has been hovering around 120 for seven days, with MA7/MA14 both here. The 117 level below has been repeatedly tested as a floor over the past month, providing strong support.
Moreover, as the launch event approaches, the X-Perp shelf has already added more than 10 new trading pairs. Now, I'm actually leaning optimistic—the longer it stays sideways, the more explosive the launch day could be.
X layer has grown from zero last year to 10 now; the ecosystem is becoming more complete, and the gap with BSC is narrowing. It's clear that this is not the end for X Layer; it still has a lot of room to grow.
I hope all this potential will be reflected in OKB's future price.
+178.47%
Snapshot at Oct 04, 2026, 10:28
Institutions are retreating, but the whales are quietly arbitraging; this wave of $ETH might be a good opportunity to accumulate tokens:
In the past 30 days, $ETH has seen a net withdrawal of $1.86 billion from exchanges, and even the archaeological wallets from the ICO era bought 8,492 coins last week, equivalent to $23.7 million. This indicates that large holders are moving coins into staking pools, accumulating tokens.
As a result, ETH's staking rate has climbed to 35%, with a staking market value exceeding $117 billion, and the selling pressure pool is shrinking.
However, from the ETF fund flow perspective, there was a net outflow of $118 million last week, interrupting the previous week's inflow momentum of $690 million. Short-term institutions are exiting while long-term whales remain, which is the root cause of the 2600-2700 range consolidation for half a month.
Therefore, this recent period of volatility might be a good opportunity for everyone to accumulate tokens, especially since the trust of long-term whales remains, and Citibank's valuation pricing of 4500 is still in place.
+25.42%
Snapshot at Oct 04, 2026, 09:47
Token Unlock Schedule for Next Week: Most are routine unlocks, with one positive unlock.
1. $HYPE unlocks 9.92 million tokens on the 6th, accounting for 4.46% of circulation, approximately $929 million. This is not a big issue because the claim rate for HYPE unlocks has always been very low.
2. RAIN unlocks 37.2 billion tokens on the 10th, accounting for 5.2% of circulation, approximately $445 million. This is a continuous monthly release, a routine unlock.
3. $APT will unlock about 2%, $48 million on the 12th — regular monthly unlock for the foundation/team, low impact.
4. There is also a positive unlock: on the 5th, after the last 14% VC release of $ENA lands, investor selling pressure actually bottoms out. This is a case where the negative is fully priced in and turns positive.
$CT's recent surge is actually driven by increased hype from quick gains and controlled supply, not by value appreciation. It's fine to speculate on short-term sentiment, but don't get fooled into thinking it's a value investment:
1. Why say it's highly controlled? Because 22% is locked by the team and 28% by investors, leaving only the airdrop portion, liquidity pools, and foundation tokens active. The early circulating supply is thin, so even small volume can move the price.
2. Why say it's not a value investment? Because $CT itself has only a few thousand holders, and CT holders don't receive any protocol revenue.
In other words, the project's 1.27 billion TVL is making money, but it has nothing to do with you as a token holder. (In reality, the project team hasn't made much profit either.)
3. Why say the hype is high? Besides the airdrop, the project also has investment backing from Polychain, VanEck, and YZi Labs, making it a prime time for storytelling and hype.
The narrative of bank-backed projects is no longer popular. At today's Seoul $XRP meeting, the four major financial institutions in South Korea were all present, considering using RLUSD for cross-border payments and tokenized government bond settlements. But the coin price showed little movement.
The same goes for $SOL. The bank stablecoin Roughrider Coin launched on Solana, with over 90 banks and credit unions in North Dakota connected for interbank settlements, yet the price remains stuck at 120.
The key point is that both tokens have solid applications in traditional institutions: Kbank in Korea has already implemented blockchain cross-border payments and is exploring using Ripple infrastructure for tokenized government bond settlements. Solana is also genuinely landing in traditional banking payment channels.
It can only be said that bank-backed projects are slow variables, supporting the bottom but not the surge; for a surge, it still depends on market speculation sentiment and the overall market mood.
+31.21%
Snapshot at Oct 03, 2026, 20:43