陈桂林谈交易
陈桂林谈交易
X账号名称：陈桂林
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1. Someone asked, Guilin, you keep pumping BTC every day, why isn't BTC rising? Brother, I beg you, don't act like an idiot. The Nasdaq has been down -2%+ all day, BTC holding at around -0.5% with such fluctuations is actually a strong performance. Shouldn't you look at the market comprehensively?
2. I like to call the recent market "people hiding from the bear market in crypto" (familiar, right?). My spot holdings are only three: $BTC, $ETH, and $CRCL. Except for $CRCL which is more volatile and hovering around my cost price, BTC and ETH are steady as old dogs. Looking at the outside market, it's already a bloodbath. Honestly, I'm quite satisfied with their recent performance.
3. I'm also very anxious, anxious because I have no money left; Intel, Qualcomm/SanDisk, Micron, Mywell/Old Mantou, COHR/SOXX, SOXL/if that doesn't work, look at MAG7. In my opinion, US tech stocks have fallen to such a state that they are really attractive now;
And those with bigger fluctuations, like SanDisk and Old Mantou, once they rebound, will definitely run stronger than BTC, but I really have no money to bottom-fish, very anxious. Whenever the market drops, everything looks like a buy, everything looks cheap.
4. A while ago, I set a standard for myself: BTC and ETH are my core holdings, unshakable; $CRCL has a cost basis of 80, with a target of 120, a 50% increase. If it can run over 50%, that's awesome; if it can't, no need to watch. But honestly, it seems many stocks can run over 50% in the future, unless $CRCL performs beyond my expectations.
5. I dare not use leverage now. With the Nasdaq like this, semiconductors like this, leading the whole market like this, and oil prices like this again, my spot positions are already full. If I use leverage on the left side, I’m afraid I won’t know how I’ll die.
6. Finally, I want to say, brother, I’m really anxious. There’s gold everywhere, but no cash.
7. Last but not least, some good news: WTI oil is just one dollar away from 100.
Today is a day when Americans can fly.
Tesla $TSLA has its earnings report after the market closes on Wednesday, October 21; I have shared my views on the #OKX planet, teachers are welcome to follow.
#巴克莱推演SpaceX收购特斯拉方案
Tesla TSLA's earnings report is after the market closes on October 21, and today Elon Musk released the flying little car, which went viral across the internet. It must be said, when it comes to social media, Elon Musk is the true originator.
1. I need memory, but memory is too expensive? Easy, send out two tweets on X to drive the price down.
2. TSLA's earnings report is coming soon, what to do? Easy, show the backflip little car after the press conference.
Actually, Tesla has always been a rather special presence within MAG7. Look at its PE ratio—how is it a car manufacturing company? Wall Street has always valued Tesla with the most imaginative valuation.
From a technical perspective:
Since Tesla peaked in 2021, it has been moving within a large range of oscillation, somewhat similar to ETH in the crypto world. The reason is that early expectations were set too high, hitting the ceiling directly. So from 2021 until now, it has been undergoing a digestion phase;
Why hasn't it collapsed despite this? The core reason is one person: Elon Musk. Although he often brags, you have to know that up to now, most of the things he bragged about have basically come true; the timing may not be exact, but the results are guaranteed, and he keeps his word.
Next, I think the biggest highlight of the earnings report is not the data itself, but whether or not the merger with SPCX is mentioned. If viewed from the merger narrative, then the optimal solution is SPCX's stock price rising and TSLA's stock price falling.
Well said, ask yourself, have you mentally prepared for this? Do you have the ability to hold positions? Yes, the ability to hold positions is a rare trading skill.
If you don't, don't take it; go play contracts, do swing trading, look for stocks or coins with relatively low volatility and more regular patterns, find tickets that can give you positive feedback in the short term; for something like the circle, looking closer, most of the time the negative feedback you get will definitely outweigh the positive feedback.
This kind of circle movement is not suitable for most people. (The green line below)
wufantouzi
Don't think that crcl will be below 80 for the last time today
And don't think it will take off tomorrow
These are all unreliable predictions
Although sometimes I have these fantasies myself
I've posted charts before
Look for the candlesticks of tsla, btc, and Nvidia during their consolidation periods
Who knows which time was tsla's last $20 billion market cap
Who knows which time was btc's last $1000 unit price
Who knows which time was Nvidia's last $100 billion market cap
There have been so many times the price was broken through
Maybe as many as 100 times
Which means you will be provoked 100 times
But as long as you bought at this price
And held until today
You've made enough profit
So don't think you bought at the bottom price
Don't expect it to take off 5 minutes after you buy
There will always be that one time
When it passes the $100 unit price, the $200 unit price
And never looks back
But which time it is
Only hindsight knows
I don't know if Chinese people can fly, but Elon Musk @elonmusk can really fly;
Watching this video, I can only say the future will come faster than we imagine.
$TSLA $SPCX
The only advice is: if the experience with these two stocks isn't good, you don't have to play, but don't short them, especially don't short Elon Musk; after all, this guy is already beyond the dimension of Earthlings;
Most people might smile slightly when they hear him talk about Mars colonization, assuming he's bragging, but is it possible that he's actually just expressing his true inner thoughts?
Chen Guilin's Trading Notes:
October 16, 2026
Case: Why stop loss even when you know it's the floor price? $LITE:
1. Trading process: For this trade, Old Mantou's single calculation was: the first wave entered at 925, exited at 1100 (spot stock); then the contract was taken over at 980, stopped loss at 830; overall loss about 1000U, roughly a free play;
2. Technical analysis: The red and green lines in the chart represent Old Mantou's two different mid-term movement judgments and hypotheses.
The red line indicates a large-scale correction, the green line indicates a new upward trend;
The reason for taking over at 980 (a bit rushed indeed): ① based on Old Mantou's past behavior, after a continuous drop of over 10%, a rebound probability is high; ② continuing the previous trade (already earned nearly 20% T), continuing the upward push, continuing green wave 3.
Red line is ABC, green line is 12345, so I fully caught the internal wave 3 of the green line after black wave 1, then took over during black wave 2's pullback, aiming for black waves 3,4,5, even expanding to green waves 3,4,5. This trade has a hard stop loss point at the start of the black line, which is 830. (If it's wave 2, it cannot break below the start of wave 1).
So, why did I take over at 980 (because above 830 is covered by my profit), and why stop loss? Because the trend has turned bad, the green line was falsified.
Now that the green line is falsified and the red line is in play, red wave C actually has infinite possibilities:
1. Most likely red wave B is strong, so red wave C is weak;
2. But it's also possible that red wave B breaks a 5-wave top, and red wave C breaks a 4-wave bottom in a tricky way;
3. In short, it can be vertical or a sideways grind, we cannot predict, but we can predict that it is indeed wave C, a correction of the same level as wave A from May to late July.
Since it is the same level, a correction, and the initial expectation of this trade (to push upward) is different, stop loss is only a matter of timing but definitely necessary. After all, if you don't exit, holding a position means risk, which controls your mind and leads to illusions: winning is luck, losing more is the norm.
Besides, exiting doesn't mean I won't open again (that would be a new trade), nor that I won't open others.
15,000U, not a lot of money, loss is acceptable, but mindset (worth a fortune) must not be disturbed.
If you completely missed out on Bitcoin at 60,000-87,000 and Ethereum at 1,500-2,800 this time;
You start whining so loudly at just a slight pullback, then what are you?
Tell me, what are you? Speak!
What macro negative news, what MSTR being removed from the index, what technicals not falling enough—are these the key points? No, none of these are the key points.
The key point is: you need to find a reason for your missed opportunity. You desperately want Bitcoin to drop to 75,000 so you can get on board. But here’s the question: even if Bitcoin does drop to 75,000 as you wish, would you dare to get on board?
Would you dare? Answer me!
陈桂林谈交易
Everyone's decisions are driven by their emotions, which is normal and understandable. Who trades without some emotion?
Now, those bearish on Bitcoin, saying Bitcoin's strength is fake, aren't necessarily wrong. After all, Bitcoin has played the fake-strong game against the US stock market before.
What I want to say is, if you're not optimistic, don't just talk—place your trades. According to this logic, with the US stock market like this, buying Bitcoin on dips isn't like picking up free money?
I'm bullish and going long because I'm following the trend. I've fully loaded my Bitcoin spot position below 65,000, my Ethereum spot cost is 1,600, and CRCL's secondary point is now at a cost of 80. So I'm just continuing with the trend;
If you're bearish and shorting:
If you can precisely switch directions at the highs and dominate short-term moves, I respectfully call you a stock god!
But if you completely missed the Bitcoin 60,000–87,000 wave and the Ethereum 1,500–2,800 wave, and you’re shouting so loudly at every small pullback, then what exactly are you?