老莫养鱼交易日记
老莫养鱼交易日记
八年币圈生涯 老韭菜一枚～每天分享交易日常以及做单思路！
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$ETH $SNDK
Brothers, the main group chat has been set up, everyone is welcome to join!
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✅ Daily market analysis to stay updated on market hotspots and trend changes
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Trading alone inevitably has blind spots. More communication and review help you see the bigger picture!
If you want to learn more market ideas and meet like-minded trading partners, come join the main group! Let's communicate and grow together, avoid pitfalls, and make more progress in the market! 🚀
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
$SNDK Is today a solo performance by SanDisk? As expected, SanDisk still has great flexibility!
Now it depends on whether it can effectively break through 1400; if it cannot, then around 1400 is a good opportunity to short!
$SKHYNIX The opening performance is mediocre, is it being drained by SanDisk? Among the three semiconductor memory giants, only SanDisk is aggressively moving up. Can Hynix hold firm?
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $MU
The US stock market is about to open. Can today's long strategy on SanDisk $SNDK and SK Hynix $SKHYNIX be perfectly realized?
Today's trend basically belongs to an oversold recovery phase. The long and short ideas for SanDisk have also been given one by one. Let's see if the US market opening can provide some strength!
A bold prediction for the opening trend: will it rally first then drop, or drop first then rally? Or will it surge or plunge?
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $BTC
Explosive! Nearly $1.2 billion worth of BNB accounts closed and settled, bullish benefits realized but be cautious of bulls getting trapped!
Explosive! Nearly $1.2 billion worth of $BNB burned, be cautious of bulls getting trapped after the positive news is priced in! This BNB burn is indeed fierce, but don’t rush to see it as a takeoff signal! On October 19, BNB completed its 37th quarterly burn, destroying about 1.6462 million BNB, valued at approximately $1.197 billion at the time. But remember: burning reduces supply, it doesn’t mean the market immediately has an equivalent scale of buy orders entering. What’s more concerning on the chart is that BNB remains under pressure after the surge, failing to break through effectively around $730. The current market risks to watch out for are not just the positive news being priced in, but also the stop-loss and liquidation pressure from bulls if the support below breaks. 📉 Key levels to watch next: Around $730: The short-term strength dividing line; whether the rebound can hold here is critical. $710–$700: Key support zone below; if broken effectively, it may look for liquidity further down. $740–$750: Upper rebound resistance zone; don’t easily assume a trend reversal before it firmly holds above this. Trading approach: Be cautious short-term; consider short positions only if the rebound meets resistance, don’t blindly chase shorts! If the price rebounds to the resistance zone and shows signs of stagnation or volume resistance, consider light positioning; if it strongly holds above resistance, adjust to a bearish view promptly. Remember: positive news can drive prices up but doesn’t guarantee a rise; liquidation maps can highlight risk concentration areas but can’t predict price direction. Don’t get dazzled by the burn amount, and also
$AKE unlocking is coming soon, will there be any big moves?
Last month saw a big rally before the unlocking, and this month the monthly unlocking day is approaching again. The big market rally like last month is unlikely this time, as there is too much resistance from trapped positions above, resulting in heavy selling pressure. However, a small rally should still be possible, but it's uncertain if the recent surge a few days ago already played out the market early?
No worries, you can still try low leverage long positions now. After all, as one of the most volatile coins of the year, it still deserves some respect!!!
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $BTC $ETH
Who will experience the inflow first?
#Institutional funds weaken, who will see capital inflow first, BTC or ETH? Recently, institutional funds have clearly cooled down, and both BTC and ETH face pressure from capital outflows. Next, whoever can attract funds back first is likely to determine the pace of the next rebound phase. According to the latest available data on US spot ETFs from October 12 to 16: $BTC: Weekly net outflow of about $228 million, institutional buying is temporarily weak. $ETH: Weekly net outflow of about $320 million, greater capital pressure, and continuous net outflows for several days. Between BTC and ETH, who has a better chance to see inflows first? First, BTC is more likely to stabilize first. Bitcoin's institutional ETF market is more mature, with larger capital scale and liquidity. When market risk appetite declines, if institutions reallocate crypto assets, BTC is often the preferred choice. But the premise is that ETF outflows narrow and spot buying truly recovers. Second, ETH's key lies in whether capital can stop flowing out. Ethereum currently faces more obvious pressure. If subsequent ETH ETFs end continuous net outflows first, combined with a rebound in spot demand, ETH may also see capital recovery and even temporarily outperform BTC. What should we focus on next? Continuous ETF flows: Single-day inflows do not count as a reversal; sustained net inflows over several days are more valuable for reference. Spot trading volume: Price increases without spot capital support may lack sustainability in the rebound. Relative strength of BTC and ETH: If BTC stabilizes first and ETH continues to weaken
$ETH pullbacks are just opportunities to go long; the bulls will never be slaves!!!
Despite so many negative data points last week, BTC still held strong, and the key support at 80000 was not effectively broken, indicating there is still capital supporting from below. The strategy given this afternoon finally provided a chance to get in!
There are no particularly important data releases this week, but the midterm elections are approaching. If some positive news comes, market sentiment will surge again, so this week is mainly about buying the dip.
Short-term:
BTC: try longs near 82000 Ethereum: try longs near 2400-2410 Solana: try longs near 104-104.3
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $BTC $SOL
$SKHYNIX Oversold rebound or the start of a new market rally?
Over the weekend, US stocks collectively plunged, and SK Hynix experienced a sharp correction, dropping below the previous low of 853.01 before quickly rebounding to around 970.
This drop can be understood as the market releasing concentrated selling pressure, but it cannot be simply regarded as just a shakeout. What truly deserves attention is whether SK Hynix can regain strength through actual price action after digesting the negative news!
Currently, the logic suggests that the early negative factors have been somewhat released, and the daily chart shows signs of stabilization. While the technological progress of ChangXin Memory does not pose competitive pressure to the industry, the market may have already repriced the AI memory industry.
So, should we go long or short next?
Old Mo's approach: Consider light long positions at the current level but do not blindly chase the rally!
Reference range: Buy around 960-970, target 1050. If the rebound lacks strength and breaks the key support again, adjust your strategy promptly.
Start with light positions to test the waters, then wait for trend confirmation. Don’t hastily conclude that a new upward wave has begun just because of one rebound candlestick!
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $BTC $ETH
$XAU When the firecrackers go off, gold is worth ten thousand taels. Gold strategy for the afternoon of 10.19: continue to look bearish on the rebound!
The weekend low-buy high-sell strategy has been firmly secured, now the high-sell strategy can be implemented!
Gold continues to fluctuate. After the rebound was blocked in the morning session, it fell again. Overall, it is still a bearish pattern under rebound pressure, and short-term downside risk needs to be closely watched.
On the upside, first look at the 4190-4200 resistance zone, with strong resistance at 4217-4223; on the downside, watch the 4130-4135 support. Once effectively broken, the next target is the 4100 level.
The 4-hour chart still requires a pullback. In the afternoon, continue to focus on shorting the rebound, do not blindly chase the rise, nor short at low levels. Be patient and enter the market only when the price rebounds to the right position.
Personal operation strategy:
4190-4200: short on rebound
4217-4223: if the rebound continues, consider adding shorts
Stop loss position: above 4229
First target: around 4130
After breaking the level: continue to watch the 4100 level
The overall strategy is still mainly high-sell, strictly control position size, set stop losses properly, and do not blindly take heavy positions betting on direction before the market trend is clear!
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 $BTC $ETH
$SNDK The US stock market was supposed to be stable over the weekend, so why this sudden drop? Man proposes, but God disposes!
It is said that this drop was caused by a whale liquidating positions. The logic isn't wrong—trying to catch a rebound—but unfortunately, the extent of this drop was unexpected. The market is always right; there is no master who always profits. When you're wrong, you're wrong!
The current rally logic is simple: the previous drop was too severe, market panic has eased, and AI storage demand remains long-term. However, this rebound is not a reversal; overall, this rally is still a recovery phase.
The current strategy is to short at highs and buy at lows. Long positions: try buying around 1280-1300. Short positions: if 1400 cannot be effectively broken, short immediately!
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $BTC $ETH
$BTC As mentioned before, the key support at 80000 must not be effectively broken for it to be a good opportunity to go long!
The current strategy is to go long around 80000. After such a long consolidation without breaking down, this level is very likely forming a bottom. Many people are waiting for that final drop to grab chips at a lower price, but will the main force give that chance? That's the question.
$ETH Ethereum is the same, trade around 2300, try going long at 2320-2330, anyway, any pullback is a buy!!!
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $SOL
老莫养鱼交易日记
This is how the weekend market went, brothers. No matter how the market moves, the trend can't have big changes every day. My personal view remains unchanged: go long and wait for opportunities!
$BTC
Enter long near 80000, be prepared to add positions around 75000.
For contracts, exit if it falls below 79000 and wait for new opportunities. If there's no liquidation price, just watch and buy.
$ETH 2400 can enter a bit, exit if it falls below 2370.
Enter again between 2315–2335, exit if it falls below 2280, enter again near 2235, control your position size.
The spot strategy is consistent.
$SOL Enter near 100–102, add positions at 97–98, control forced liquidation below 70 for contracts, hold spot and wait for opportunities.
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓