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ETH current price is $2550. Bitmine holds 6.016 million coins, accounting for 4.9% of the supply, less than 100,000 coins away from the 5% hard cap. Tom Lee said: Stop buying when it reaches 5%. In the same month, he said ETH would break $5000 by the end of the year, and if BTC reaches 100,000, ETH would hit $7500. A person who has bet his entire fortune on ETH suddenly announces he will stop buying. Think about that. On October 7th at Token2049, Tom Lee announced on stage: Bitmine will stop buying ETH once its holdings reach 5% of the total supply, which is a hard cap. He also said that after reaching 5%, the company can sell staking rewards to maintain the proportion. In other words—not only will they stop buying, but they will also sell in the future. Three days later, in an interview, he said: ETH in this cycle is expected to rise to $25,000 to $50,000, breaking $5000 by the end of the year. Market data shows traders believe the probability of ETH reaching $5000 by year-end is only 4%. The first reaction is definitely: If you are so optimistic, why not keep buying? But the answer might be simple: Bitmine doesn’t want to buy; it can’t buy. The treasury company’s business model is based on the core logic that "stock price is higher than the value of held coins," then issuing more shares to finance coin purchases. Once the stock price falls below NAV, issuing more shares to buy coins dilutes shareholders. This year, Bitmine has already repurchased 21 million shares to support the stock price. Lee himself called it "the largest stock buyback in the history of crypto treasury companies" in an announcement. This shows the pressure is real. The deeper contradiction lies here— Tom Lee holds about $45 million in unrealized losses on paper. He simultaneously manages Bitmine’s public forecasts and company strategy. When a person is both a major buyer and a promoter, there is an unavoidable "personal interest" dimension between his optimistic forecasts and company decisions. This doesn’t mean he is necessarily lying. But investors need to factor this in their judgment. But we must also acknowledge the other side. Bitmine’s 5.07 million ETH holdings are already staked, generating about $363 million in annual staking income, fully covering the $30 to $35 million annual dividends on Series A preferred shares. The company has no reason to be forced to sell core holdings due to funding needs. The hard cap actually eliminates the risk of equity dilution, so shareholders don’t have to worry about unlimited financing to buy coins. In plain terms: He stopped buying, but it’s not to the extent of crashing the market. It’s just that "the most stable buyer" is leaving. The question is—who will take over? In recent weeks, Bitmine has been buying about 15,000 ETH per week, accounting for about 72% of the newly issued supply during the same period. Once it stops, about $7 million of potential daily selling pressure will have no one to absorb it. ETH spot ETFs have had net outflows for 8 consecutive days, totaling $641 million. The second largest ETH treasury company, SharpLink, only bought 5,000 ETH at the low point in June this year. No successor buyer has appeared yet. "Is what Tom Lee said correct? Possibly. But there is a structural conflict of interest between what he says and what he does, and this tension itself deserves to be priced in. When the biggest buyer is also the biggest promoter, you need to listen to what he says and watch what he does." $ETH $ETH $MAGIC