ZEC at $1325, do you dare to chase?
ETF redeemed $93.56 million in one week, contract open interest barely increased in a day, yet the price was forcibly pulled from 1271 back to 1325—just now, the 4-hour RSI is only 39, still in the bearish zone. Is this wave the last dip after the shakeout, or a fake rebound before a run for the exit?
Let's look at the surface first: it rebounded, but the rebound is very weak.
ZEC dropped from 1698 on September 26 to 1271 on October 3, losing 25%. Today it climbed back from 1271 to 1325, seemingly stabilizing. The 24-hour low was 1284, high 1341, volume not small, but—contract open interest is 640 million, barely moved in a day, 8-hour funding rate +0.01%, longs are paying, but no new shorts are being squeezed out.
Price up, positions not up, this is a rebound, not a trend.
First thing: the narrative hasn't broken, but the money is running.
Grayscale's Zcash spot ETF had a net redemption of $93.56 million last week. This product, launched in August, was an important incremental driver for the rise from a few hundred dollars to 1700.
Now? The honeymoon is over.
You might say: "The fundamentals haven't changed, the shielded pool accounts for 29%, market cap 22.7 billion still in the top ten, NU7 is still progressing."
Yes, fundamentals haven't changed. But short-term coin price is driven by money, not stories.
THORChain's ZEC pool went live on October 2, sounds like good news? But native swaps are not fully open yet, pool depth is shallow. This is a channel, not a buy order. Don't mistake the pipeline for water.
Second thing: BTC is fine, but it didn't help.
BTC is between 84900-85000, still in the upper half of the 83000-87200 box. After employment data, rate hike expectations fell, but 10-year US Treasury yields rebounded, risk appetite hasn't reopened.
Next hard data: inflation on October 14.
ZEC's current pullback isn't led by BTC—it's because it rose too much on its own, profit-taking is happening. But if BTC effectively breaks below 83100, the relative strength of privacy coins will also be suppressed. Don't think you're independent; you just haven't had your turn yet.
Third thing: technicals tell you a harsh truth.
Daily: RSI back to 50, completely cooled from overbought. Price still above the 50-day moving average (around 1080), 50-day above 200-day—the bullish structure is intact.
4-hour: the downtrend from 1698 hasn't been broken. Today's rebound stopped near 1340, 4-hour RSI about 39, still a pullback within the bearish zone.
Key levels:
Near-term resistance: 1332-1341 (pivot upper edge + today's high), 1370, then 1449
Near-term support: 1284-1281, 1271 (this wave's low), 1244
Only if 1244 breaks do we look at 1170/1130
1325 is stuck just above the pivot, neither up nor down, the most uncomfortable position.
Daily close above 1370 means the pullback is over, target 1449.
Close below 1271 means repair failed, next support 1244.
Bull vs bear, judge for yourself:
On one side:
Weekly bulls intact, 50-day above 200-day
Shielded pool 29%, fundamentals intact
NU7 accelerating block production + community security funding
Stronger than BTC for a month
On the other side:
ETF redeemed $93.56 million in a week, incremental funds withdrawing
Contract open interest not increasing, no new short squeeze
4-hour still in downtrend, RSI 39
Heavy trapped positions above 1370
Trading strategy
1. Do not chase longs at 1325.
This is the rebound midpoint, above is 1341/1370. Wait for 4-hour close to hold above 1370 with volume, then look at 1449, stop loss below 1320. Chasing 1325 is giving the market makers your stop loss.
2. Buy on dips.
Prefer to wait for 1284-1271 to show a long lower shadow indicating a stop, then scale in with stop loss below 1255. First target 1340, if held then look at 1370. This has a much better risk-reward than chasing 1325.
3. Short only on resistance in the short term.
If rebound to 1366-1370 shows volume upper shadow and 4-hour can't close above, short lightly with stop loss above 1390, target 1284/1271. Don't guess the top at 1325, daily RSI is already neutral.
4. Invalid conditions.
Daily close below 1271 and failure to recover means exit longs. If ETF continues large redemptions, breakout above 1370 loses weight. If THORChain native swaps open with volume, treat as a bonus, not a reason to chase highs.
You chase at 1700, fear at 1300, itch to act at 1325—you are not trading, you are paying tuition to the market makers.
Single trade risk control within 1% of account. Daily volatility often exceeds $100, don't use positions you can't handle.
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